马年首个交易日，A股早盘三大指数集体高开。 截至9:59，上证指数上涨0.59%，深证成指上涨0.93%，创业板指上涨0.67%，科创综指下跌1.26%。 盘面上，周期股早盘领涨，受外围地缘政治事件影响，油气开采、有色金属、港口航运等板块大涨，"三桶油"集体上涨，截至9:59，中国海油（600938） 涨超7%。洛阳钼业（603993）、紫金矿业（601899）等龙头股大涨。 东方证券表示，受地缘冲突影响，市场对油气供应减少的担忧上升，导致油价回升。而全球的油气资本开支正处于较低水平，存在向上恢复的空间。但 是，考虑到油气项目的建设周期较长，预计下游业主将更重视油气服务和装备企业的长期竞争力，因此看好具有高竞争力的油服装备企业的投资机会。 港口航运板块中，中远海能（600026）、招商轮船（601872）等个股大涨。消息面上，上期所欧线集运主力合约早盘一度涨超12%。 | | 油气开采及服务 2001.96 9.75% | | G | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基金 成分股 | 简况(F10) | 资金 | 板块分析 | | 名称代码 | 最新 | 涨幅 ◆ | 流通市值 | | ...

华源证券近日发布航运船舶市场系列（十九）：2026年春节期间，VLCC运价高位大涨。2月20日， VLCC中东线、西非/拉美线、美湾线运价分别为15.7万、13.7万、10.1万美元/日（较2月13日分别大涨 28.5%、28.7%、8.7%），超过2025年11月时最高水平，创下2020年4月以来的新高。更值得注意的是， VLCC一年期期租租金在基本面和"长锦因素"催化下，大涨至9.3万美元/日（2月20日，较2月13日大涨 28.5%），创1988年以来历史新高。 来源：中国能源网 "百船王"长锦商船对市场定价的影响初显。VLCC运价在2026年春节期间的大涨或受"长锦因素"的较大 影响。2月17日，VLCC西非/中东线运价突破12万美元/日大关，当日3个成交货盘中，有2条为长锦运 营。值得注意的是，两条长锦运营的船均在成交前闲置了一段时间，其中的一艘（VLProsperity，2015 年造）甚至闲置了超30天才成交。考虑到VLCC运价对运力供给侧变化高度敏感，控制了120-130条 VLCC的"百船王"长锦商船或正在通过有效供给端影响市场定价。 特朗普对伊朗下"最后通牒"，美军"福特"号航母即将抵达中 ...

消息面上，航运概念集体高开，中远海能、招商轮船涨停价开盘。 中信证券指出，逆全球化背景下能源贸易格局持续演变，供应链资产稀缺性和金融属性日益凸显，船东 运价和估值表现屡屡跳脱于传统供需驱动框架之外或为2025~26年油轮周期显著特征，淡季单日TD3C TCE突破15万美金，地缘催化共振推动2026年公司利润创周期高点。 一方面供给端海外船东加大运力控制，合规市场VLCC集中度提升有望重构定价机制。以Sinokor为例， 通过买入和期租的方式新增大量运力，若本轮全部船舶交付完毕后，控制运力将提升至118艘，若剔除 被制裁运力按合规运力来看，则CR5为41.5%，扩张完成后集中度将提升6.6ppts，集中度提升有望重构 定价机制，强化船东运价博弈主动权。同时截至2026年1月，VLCC浮舱运力占比环比提升0.4pct至 6.0%，供给端强约束2026年持续存在。 另一方面合规市场需求结构性增长&低油价背景下原油补库需求或为主要边际变量。边际需求、运价的 趋势动能以及船东和货主双方博弈等影响即期运价因素短期形成合力，2月TD3C TCE超过14万，一年 期VLCC租金超过9万地缘主导驱动淡季油价甚至超过旺季，VLC ...

责任编辑：山上 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 航运概念集体高开，中远海能、招商轮船涨停价开盘，招商南油、中远海控、宁波远洋、中远海发跟 涨。消息面上，2026年2月23日 波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)报 2112 点，创2026年2月2日以来新高水平。 此外，上期所欧线集运主力合约大涨7%，报1326点。 ...

盘面上，黄金、石油板块领涨，宇树机器人、能源金属、CPO、特高压、消费电子、半导体概念股活跃。 09:34 港股恒生科技指数跌幅扩大至2%，恒生指数现跌1.27%。 09:33 港口航运板块盘初冲高，招商轮船盘中创新高，中远海能、招商南油涨停，宁波远洋、中远海特、国航远洋等跟涨。 沪指高开1.15%，深成指高开1.52%，创业板指高开1.70%，科创综指涨1.16%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | | 4129.13 | 47.06 | 1.15% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 1m | 14313.86 | 213.67 | 1.52% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | MW | 3331.79 | 55.84 | 1.70% | | 000680 | 科创综指 | mm | 1830.15 | 20.97 | 1.16% | 盘面上，黄金、石油板块领涨，宇树机器人、能源金属、CPO、特高压、消费电子、半导体概念股活跃；免税店、短剧游戏、see ...

港口航运板块盘初冲高，招商轮船盘中创新高，中远海能、招商南油涨停，宁波远洋、中远海特、国航 远洋、南京港、宁波海运跟涨。 ...

Group 1: Macro Insights - The overall sentiment around the Spring Festival is mixed, with positive aspects outweighing the negative; the macro environment remains favorable for the market [3] - Key observations include a decline in new home sales and a drop in movie ticket sales during the holiday, while travel and tourism showed strong activity [3] - The economic performance is still under observation, with credit data showing mixed results and social financing needing further assessment [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Market - The bond market is expected to continue its upward trend post-Spring Festival, supported by a stable demand for bonds from banks and other institutional investors [12][15] - The liquidity environment is anticipated to remain loose, with the central bank likely to smooth out market shocks through rollovers of maturing repos [13][14] - The overall bond market is expected to stabilize due to low financing demand and a favorable trading structure [15][16] Group 3: Transportation Sector - High dividend highway companies are becoming attractive for investment, with dividend yields rising to 4-6% [17] - The growth potential in the transportation sector is driven by infrastructure expansion and investment opportunities in mature operational assets [17] - The revision of the "Highway Management Regulations" is expected to enhance long-term returns for the industry [17] Group 4: Food and Beverage Sector - Baoli Food has transitioned from single product offerings to a comprehensive empowerment model, focusing on compound seasonings and light cooking solutions [19] - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a projected CAGR of 14.09% from 2022 to 2024, and a net profit of 1.92 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2025 [19][20] - Investment recommendations include focusing on high-dividend and growth-oriented companies within the food and beverage sector, particularly those with strong B-end customer relationships [32][20] Group 5: Coal Industry - Global energy prices are experiencing divergence, with crude oil prices rising significantly due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [29][30] - The increase in oil prices is driven by factors such as military actions in the Middle East and a reduction in U.S. oil inventories [30] - Investment suggestions include focusing on high-performing coal companies and those in niche markets [30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the shipping industry, indicating an expectation of growth exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [6]. Core Insights - The VLCC market is experiencing unprecedented high sentiment driven by geopolitical risk premiums, aggressive capacity expansion by Changjin Shipping, and strengthened sanctions [1][9]. - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran continues to elevate risk premiums, with Brent crude oil futures reaching $71.76 per barrel, a week-on-week increase of 5.9% [2][19]. - Changjin Shipping has rapidly expanded its fleet, becoming the largest VLCC operator globally, controlling 118 VLCCs, which corresponds to a market share of 16% [2][20][21]. - Strengthened sanctions are increasing the demand for compliant trade, with Venezuela's oil shifting towards compliant markets and India committing to stop purchasing Russian oil, which could add 1% to global tanker trade [3][39]. - The EU's proposal for a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian oil could necessitate the transfer of more compliant vessels into shadow fleets, impacting supply dynamics [4][43]. Summary by Sections Market Review - VLCC rates have surged to their highest levels in nearly a decade, with the Clarksons VLCC-TCE reaching $142,000 per day, a week-on-week increase of 24.5% [9][12]. - The stock performance of tanker companies has been strong, with notable increases during the holiday period [16]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing US-Iran negotiations have not yielded clear outcomes, maintaining military tensions and affecting oil transport routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz [2][19]. - Changjin Shipping's aggressive market entry reflects confidence in the tanker market's high profitability, with a significant increase in the concentration of top VLCC owners [21]. Sanctions and Compliance - The report highlights a shift in the oil market towards compliance due to increased enforcement of sanctions, with Venezuela's oil exports moving towards compliant channels [3][38]. - The EU's proposed ban on maritime services for Russian oil could lead to a significant increase in the demand for compliant vessels [4][43]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook for the oil transportation market, with expectations of continued demand growth and limited supply, recommending specific companies within the sector [5][46].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the transportation sector Core Views - The transportation index decreased by 1.4% while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.4%, indicating underperformance against the broader market [1] - During the Spring Festival travel period, the total number of people moving across regions increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in waterway travel at 21.3% [2] - The express delivery sector is benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition, with a recommendation for SF Holding based on valuation and operational resilience [2] - The logistics sector is recommended for Haichen Co., as the chemical product price index shows a decline, but operational metrics remain stable [3] - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight increase in flight volumes, with domestic flights up by 5.67% year-on-year, and a recommendation for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines due to expected profit recovery [4] - The shipping sector is seeing fluctuations in freight rates, with geopolitical tensions driving oil transport rates higher, and a recommendation for companies involved in oil transport [5] Summary by Sections Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing a slowdown in container shipping rates, with the CCFI index at 1088.14 points, down 3.0% week-on-week and 21.6% year-on-year [22] - Oil transport rates are increasing due to geopolitical risks, with the BDTI index at 1756.4 points, up 2.2% week-on-week and 91.5% year-on-year [35] Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is showing signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase in passenger numbers and a recommendation for airlines based on improved load factors and pricing [47] - The Brent crude oil price is at $71.76 per barrel, reflecting a 5.92% increase week-on-week, which may impact operational costs for airlines [64] Rail and Road - The rail sector is seeing an upward trend in passenger volumes, with a year-on-year increase of 8.52% in December [73] - The road transport sector is stable, with a slight decrease in freight traffic but a recommendation for investment based on dividend yields exceeding government bond rates [75]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on oil transportation and shipbuilding sectors, recommending stocks such as ST Songfa and China Merchants Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in oil shipping, with VLCC TCE rates rising by 24% to $146,385 per day, and a significant increase in demand leading to higher freight rates [4]. - The global energy chain's valuation is on the rise, driven by long-term capacity utilization and mid-cycle profit expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for shipping rates [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the dry bulk market, with the BDI index recording a slight increase of 1.19% to 2,043 points, indicating stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index decreased by 1.41%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.77 percentage points, with the aviation sector experiencing the largest decline at -5.16% [5]. - The report notes that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China fell by 1.76%, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 1.19% [5]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates reached a new high of approximately $160,000 per day during the Spring Festival, with expectations for continued strength in the coming weeks [4]. - The report indicates that the average VLCC freight rate increased by 23% week-on-week, reaching $149,564 per day, reflecting tight capacity and strong demand [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The report mentions that the Capesize freight rate decreased by 4.1%, while the Panamax index showed resilience with a 3.5% increase [4]. - The report anticipates that post-holiday demand recovery will be crucial for the dry bulk market, particularly in iron ore shipments [4]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that the airline industry is at a turning point, with potential for significant profit growth due to increased passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [4]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4]. Express Delivery - The report notes uncertainties in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and competitive pressures, but highlights the strong market position of leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [4]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are reported to be resilient, with the Ministry of Transport data showing a slight decrease in freight volume but overall stability [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].