截至9：55，中证石化产业指数（H11057）涨0.27%，成分股中，三棵树涨超6%，凯赛生物涨超3%，荣 盛石化、上海石化、中国海油涨超2%。 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）跟踪中证石化产业指数，备受资金青睐。数据显示，该基金连续5日获 资金净流入，合计超3.1亿，近20日资金净流入超4.3亿。 化工行业ETF易方达（516570）覆盖"三桶油"，一键打包化工产业龙头，管理费率+托管费率合计仅 0.2%/年，助力投资者低成本布局传统能源产业机会。 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接A(020104.OF) 易方达中证石化产业ETF联接C(020105.OF) 2025年化工品出口增长明显，越来越多的化工品海外敞口超过20%，逐渐摆脱了国内地产的拖累，走出 开工率拐点。中国信贷+美国库存的二元需求结构，需要转变为中国+美国+亚非拉的三元需求结构。去 年中国高速增长的PVC、TDI等产品主要都是流向亚非拉，尤其是东南亚。 中银证券指出，"反内卷"等持续催化，关注供需格局持续向好子行业。一是炼化、聚酯、染料、有机 硅、农药等子行业产品价格处于低位，供给格局集中，部分子行业已通过自律、联合减产等方式维持价 格秩序。 ...

2026 年化工策略报告汇报 化工进入击球区：看好全球供 给反内卷大周期，看好全球 AI 需求大周期 20260128 摘要 基础化工行业产能扩张放缓，在建工程与固定资产比值降至低位，叠加 行业协会和龙头企业推动反内卷，有望扭转亏损局面，双碳政策也限制 了新增产能，预示行业盈利能力将恢复。 全球流动性宽松及新兴产业发展驱动需求增长，化工品消费具全球性， 下游产业对海外消费依赖度高，人工智能、机器人等新兴产业对新材料 需求增加，共同推动化工行业景气度提升。 基础化工行业价差虽有复苏但仍处底部，安全度较高，自由现金流自 2022 年以来逐渐改善，预计 2025 年全年转正，预示行业拐点出现， 为投资者带来分红等回报机会，潜在股息率普遍超过 10%。 化工行业估值提升受益于自由现金流转正、投资放缓约束、库存低位和 开工率良好，反内卷及能耗政策约束，以及欧洲企业退出市场，共同推 动化工产品价格上涨。 欧洲化工企业因能源成本、人工成本及供应链效率等问题，长期低开工 率难以恢复，高成本产能逐步退出市场，将导致聚烯烃、有机硅等产品 供应减少，推升全球价格。 Q&A 2026 年至 2030 年化工行业的整体趋势如何？ 从 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of geopolitical events on the oil and chemical industries, particularly focusing on the effects of supply constraints from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran on China's refining sector and chemical asset pricing [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Geopolitical Impact on Oil Supply - Geopolitical events have led to limited oil supplies from Venezuela, Russia, and Iran, which poses risks of rising costs and declining profits for Chinese independent refineries (地炼) [1][2]. - The takeover of Venezuelan oil by the U.S. is expected to redirect supplies away from East Asia, significantly affecting local refineries [2]. - U.S. sanctions have reduced Russian oil exports by approximately 50%, increasing transportation risks and tightening supply [2][4]. - Iran's oil supply is also under pressure due to intensified U.S. sanctions and domestic unrest, which may further limit future supply [2][4]. Impact on Chinese Refining Sector - Short-term effects include rising costs for Chinese independent refineries, with costs potentially increasing by over $10 per barrel, leading to significant profit declines or even losses for smaller refineries [4]. - In contrast, major state-owned enterprises like Sinopec and CNOOC, as well as private companies with stable resources, are expected to benefit from these supply constraints [2][4]. Chemical Industry Trends - The Chinese chemical industry is experiencing a tightening capacity cycle due to dual carbon policies, which is expected to lead to a revaluation of chemical assets over the next five years [1][5]. - By 2025, the export growth rate of Chinese chemical products is projected to increase significantly, with many products having over 20% exposure to overseas markets, helping to mitigate domestic real estate drag [5]. Asset Repricing and Beneficiaries - Strong capital and technology-intensive companies in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua Chemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, are positioned to benefit from the upcoming asset repricing [6][7]. - The scarcity of chemical products is anticipated to drive asset revaluation, allowing these companies to gain pricing power by controlling supply and capitalizing on demand growth [6]. Global Oil Transportation Challenges - The global oil transportation system faces comprehensive sanctions challenges, affecting exporters, receiving ports, and shadow fleets [8]. - The shadow fleet has seen a significant increase, reflecting changes in U.S. policy towards Iranian oil, with a notable rise in operational challenges for these vessels [11][12]. Supply Chain Implications - India is reducing its imports of Russian oil from 1.7 million barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels due to U.S. pressure, which mirrors challenges faced by Chinese buyers [9]. - The potential loss of Venezuelan, Iranian, and Russian oil supplies could severely disrupt the overall supply chain, increasing international oil price risks [9]. Canadian Oil Exports - Canada exports approximately 4 million barrels of heavy oil to the U.S. daily, and the situation in Venezuela may pressure Canada to lower prices to meet demand, potentially shifting more oil to the East Hemisphere [10]. Market Dynamics and Pricing - The pricing of cyclical stocks should focus on value recovery rather than short-term price fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of performance realization and valuation centrality [15]. Additional Important Insights - The shadow fleet's growth has tripled over the past two decades, indicating a significant shift in the operational landscape for oil transportation [11]. - The global daily oil production is around 100 million barrels, with maritime transport accounting for 45 million barrels; the loss of Iranian exports could greatly impact this market [12]. - China's refining capacity is expected to increase by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026, with a total refining capacity projected to reach 18 million barrels per day [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interplay between geopolitical events and market dynamics in the oil and chemical sectors.

Group 1 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is accelerating the mercury-free transformation in the PVC industry, focusing on the development of mercury-free catalysts [1] - The transition to mercury-free production requires significant one-time capital expenditure, which may force some small and high-cost producers to exit the market, leading to a contraction in supply and an improvement in the overall supply-demand balance [1] - As of January 28, PVC prices were at 4,615 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -111.5 yuan/ton, indicating that prices and price differences are at the 4.3% and 13.6% percentiles since 2016 [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry is expected to see a cyclical turning point by 2026, with supply remaining tight under the third-generation refrigerant quota policy, benefiting leading companies like Juhua Co., Ltd. [2] - The industry is experiencing a recovery from its bottom, with companies like Baofeng Energy and New Chemical Materials showing differentiated performance due to new capacity releases or product price support [2] - Public funds have significantly increased their allocation to the chemical sector in Q4 2025, with a focus on leading stocks such as Wanhua Chemical and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [2]

Group 1 - The refining and trading sector increased by 2.34% on January 28, with Taishan Petroleum leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4151.24, up 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14342.9, up 0.09% [1] - Key stocks in the refining and trading sector showed significant price increases, with Taishan Petroleum rising by 6.84% to a closing price of 8.12 [1] Group 2 - The refining and trading sector saw a net inflow of 236 million yuan from main funds, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 702 million yuan [2] - Major stocks like Guanghui Energy and China Petroleum had varying net inflows and outflows, indicating mixed investor sentiment [3] - Taishan Petroleum had a net inflow of 53.70 million yuan from main funds, but a significant outflow of 777.49 million yuan from retail investors [3]

知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年12月中国乙烯产量为356万吨，同比增长3%；2025年中国乙烯累计产 量为4150.8万吨，累计增长6.4%。 2020-2025年中国乙烯产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 上市企业：中国石油（601857）,中国石化（600028）,万华化学（600309）,荣盛石化（002493）,盐湖股 份（000792）,宝丰能源（600989）,东方盛虹（000301）,巨化股份（600160）,君正集团（601216）,上 海石化（600688） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国乙烯行业市场全景调研及未来趋势研判报告》 ...

1月28日，荣盛石化涨5.03%，截至发稿，报14.42元/股，成交5.07亿元，换手率0.39%，总市值1440.48 亿元。 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）成立日期2012年5月4日，最新规模4222.58亿。今年以来收益1.73%， 同类排名4579/5549；近一年收益26.46%，同类排名2873/4285；成立以来收益119.93%。 华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF（510300）基金经理为柳军。 截至发稿，柳军累计任职时间16年243天，现任基金资产总规模5509.28亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 193.73%， 任职期间最差基金回报-45.64%。 从基金十大重仓股角度 资料显示，荣盛石化股份有限公司位于浙江省杭州市萧山区金城路358号蓝爵国际写字楼，成立日期 1995年9月15日，上市日期2010年11月2日，公司主营业务涉及各类化工品、油品、聚酯产品的研发、生 产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：化工40.87%，炼油35.26%，PTA10.60%，聚酯化纤薄膜7.49%，贸易 及其他5.79%。 数据显示，华泰柏瑞基金旗下1只基金重仓荣盛石化。油气基金（561570）四季度持有股数5.3 ...

Group 1 - The chemical sector has regained momentum, with the chemical ETF (516020) experiencing a rise of 1.96% after a brief fluctuation at the opening [1][2] - Key stocks in the sector include Zhejiang Longsheng, which hit the daily limit, and other notable gainers such as Hebang Biotechnology, Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and Hengyi Petrochemical, all showing significant increases [1][2] - The chemical ETF (516020) has attracted substantial investment, with net subscriptions of 1.422 billion yuan over the past five days and 2.14 billion yuan over the past ten days [1][2] Group 2 - Recent advancements in the basic chemical industry include breakthroughs in green refrigeration technology and key technologies for the industrialization of high-performance liquid crystal polyarylate fibers [3] - Looking ahead, the chemical industry is expected to experience low prosperity in 2025, with potential recovery in profitability driven by measures against "involution" and rapid growth in new materials due to downstream demand [3] - Investment opportunities in the large chemical sector are viewed positively, particularly in leading companies and sub-industries facing supply changes or significant pressure [3]

PX方面，据中国石油和化工网数据，1月26日海南炼化、扬子石化PX优等品出厂价均为7300元/吨，呈 现稳中有升态势。PTA方面，生意社数据显示，截至1月26日华东地区PTA现货价格上涨至5341元/吨， 较1月19日涨幅达6.63%。PTA加工费也稳步回升至400元/吨。总体PX与PTA形成协同上涨态势。 从价格走势来看，纯苯和苯乙烯价格表现更为强势。纯苯方面，据生意社数据显示，截至1月26日，国 内主流厂商纯苯报价在5200-6000元/吨区间，其中齐鲁石化报价6000元/吨，较月初显著上涨。而作为纯 苯最主要的下游产品，苯乙烯同样表现强势。本月以来苯乙烯期货2603合约价格从7124元/吨涨至7708 元/吨，涨幅8.19%，持仓量攀升至42.34万手，创下阶段性高位。有市场分析人士指出，当前纯苯及苯 乙烯价格已摆脱前期低位震荡区间，进入新一轮上行通道。 多重因素共振驱动芳烃板块上涨 对于本轮芳烃系列产品集体上涨，机构普遍认为并非单一因素驱动，而是成本支撑、供应扰动与宏观情 绪共振的结果。 据生意社数据显示，1月26日，PTA期货主力合约逼近5500元/吨，创下阶段新高。而纯苯期货主力合约 自1月初的5 ...

在新能源汽车替代燃油车、运输"以铁替公"战略等影响下，我国汽柴油需求整体呈现增长放缓趋势。但 在供给端有炼油产能红线限制与炼厂"减油增化"的结构性优化，成本端原油价格处于炼油舒适区、叠加 OSP升水下调改善，国内成品油整体裂差中枢逐步上移。此外，海外成品油裂差在俄罗斯炼厂遇袭、美 国炼厂开工率下行背景下走高。我国头部炼厂炼油端利润将实现改善，炼厂可利用成品油出口配额获 利。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，炼油化工板块在供给端存在政策限制及结构优化，需求端存 在SAF等新兴油品快速增长，成本端油价与OSP官价已调整至炼厂成本舒适区，成品油裂差中枢、化工 品芳烃PTA价差、硫磺价格率先启动，有望在中期维度带动炼厂盈利持续修复，重点推荐国内炼油、炼 化产能及技术领先企业。重点推荐中国石油(601857.SH)、荣盛石化(002493.SZ)、桐昆股份 (601233.SH)。 国信证券主要观点如下： 工信部印发石化化工行业稳增长方案，行业"减油增化"稳步推进 2025年9月，工业和信息化部等七部门印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025 —2026年)》，提出了 石化化工行业稳增长的总体要求、主要目标、 ...