社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2026 年 2 月 26 日 强于大市 2026 年春节旅游数据点评 超长春节假期加持，文旅出行市场高景气 26 年春节迎来史上最长假期，出行热情高涨，文旅市场实现开门红。在促服 务消费政策驱动下，出行景气度有望继续走高，维持行业强于大市评级。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 ◼ 春节假期国内旅游市场无论是出行人次还是花费均创下新高，入境游市 场表现极为亮眼，在促服务消费的政策驱动下，文旅产业链的相关公司有 望维持高景气度。我们重点推荐资源优质、运营强劲、有外延增长预期的 出行链及相关产业链公司：岭南控股、同程旅行、长白山、黄山旅游；受 益于商旅客流复苏以及疫后市占率提高的连锁酒店品牌首旅酒店；免税 市场迎多重政策利好，有望驱动免税销售，推荐中国中免、王府井等。 评级面临的主要风险 ◼ 出行需求复苏不足、宏观经济复苏不及预期。 相关研究报告 《社会服务行业双周报》20260209 《服务消费领域再迎政策利好》20260131 《社会服务行业双周报》20260126 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 社会服务 证券分析师：李小民 (8621)2032890 ...

Macro Insights - The report identifies three historical "great migrations" of Chinese household wealth, with the third migration starting in 2023, indicating a shift in asset allocation trends[3] - The first migration (1998-2018) saw a significant flow of deposits into real estate due to housing market reforms, establishing real estate as a core asset class[4] - The second migration (2018-2023) involved a return to deposits as real estate values declined and risk aversion increased among residents[5] - The third migration reflects a transition to a "deposit+" era, where residents are diversifying into financial products beyond traditional deposits due to lower interest rates and improved returns in bond and equity markets[6] Market Strategy - Foreign capital continues to flow into the market, with a net inflow of $3.7 million in foreign investment as of February 11, 2026, and a significant increase in public fund issuance, reaching 43.63 billion yuan[9] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 2.1 trillion yuan, while the proportion of stocks rising increased to 47.6%[8] - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 44.18 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards active management strategies[9] Industry Trends - The pharmaceutical market for anticoagulants is projected to grow from $52.9 billion in 2023 to over $110 billion by 2033, driven by aging populations and increasing cardiovascular disease rates[13] - The heavy-duty truck market in China is expected to see sales of 760,000 units in 2026, a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year, while January 2026 saw a 46% increase in domestic heavy-duty truck sales compared to the previous year[16][17] - The aviation sector is experiencing a resurgence, with a 6% increase in passenger flow during the Spring Festival period, and ticket prices are expected to rise by 3-4% year-on-year due to increased demand[30][32]

超长春节假期刺激出游需求，人均消费仍承压 26年春节假期9天，全国国内出游5.96亿人次，日均0.66亿人次、同增5.7%、恢复至19年同期的112%;国 内出游总花费8034.83亿元，日均893亿元、同增5.5%、恢复至19年同期的122%;人均消费1348元，日均 150元、同减11.3%，恢复至19年同期的84.7%。 景区：客流景气度较高 26年春节假期，景区迎来"开门红"，多个景区多日达到最大承载量。从26年同比增速来看，峨眉山/三 峡大坝景区表现靓丽;从较19年增长来看，峨眉山/长白山/三峡大坝/张家界武陵源景区表现强劲。三特 索道旗下项目前8天接待游客人次同增18.2%，祥源文旅旗下目的地接待游客人次同增31.3%。 免税：海南离岛免税销售额双位数增长，三亚好于海口 在海南封关、旅游旺季叠加超长春节假期的共同催化下，日均离岛免税销售额恢复至接近24年高点的水 平。根据海口海关，26年春节假期，离岛免税购物金额27.2亿元，日均3.03亿元、同增16.5%。根据三 亚市商务局，三亚免税销售额19.6亿元、日均2.18亿、同增21%。 演艺：日均场次持平至微增 26年春节假期，宋城演艺11台《千古 ...

26 年春节假期点评：超长假期刺激出游，景区、入境游表现靓丽 [Table_Industry] 旅游综合 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 证券研究报告 行业研究 [Table_ReportType] 行业事项点评 | [Table_StockAndRank] 旅游综合 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | [Table_Author] 范欣悦 商社行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500521080001 邮 箱：fanxinyue@cindasc.com 陆亚宁 商社行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030003 邮 箱：luyaning@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 26 年春节假期点评：超长假期刺激出游，景 区、入境游表现靓丽 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 25 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [➢Table_S ...

Macro Research - In 2026, approximately 77 trillion yuan of residents' fixed deposits will mature, with about 25 trillion yuan facing repricing due to high-interest deposits [1] - The maturity pressure for 2026 is expected to be less severe compared to 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 9.6-10.8 trillion yuan, corresponding to a growth rate of 14.4%-16.3% [2][3] Strategy Research - Kevin Warsh's potential leadership at the Federal Reserve may lead to a "moderate rate cut + limited balance sheet reduction" policy, which could increase asset volatility and reshape asset pricing paradigms [1][5] Basic Chemical Research - Sanmei Co., Ltd. is a leading player in the third-generation refrigerants market, with prices expected to continue rising due to increasing downstream demand [1][8] - The company has a significant share of the HFCs production quota in China, with HFC-134a, HFC-125, HFC-32, and HFC-143a accounting for 23.97%, 18.43%, 11.81%, and 15.48% of the national production quota, respectively [9][27] - The average market price of R32 has surged from 13,472 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2023 to 63,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2026, a staggering increase of 368% [11][28] - The company is actively enhancing its integrated layout across the fluorine industry chain, with several projects in various stages of development [12][28]

研究早观点 2026 年 2 月 25 日 星期三 市场走势 【今日要点】 资料来源：常闻 国内市场主要指数 | 指数 | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | | 4,117.41 | 0.87 | | 深证成指 | | 14,291.57 | 1.36 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,707.54 | 1.01 | | 中小板指 | | 8,690.57 | 1.18 | | 创业板指 | | 3,308.26 | 0.99 | | 科创 | 50 | 1,465.37 | -0.34 | 资料来源：常闻 分析师： 彭皓辰 执业登记编码：S0760525060001 邮箱：penghaochen@sxzq.com 2019 年 2 月 21 日 星期四 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 2 研究早观点 2026 年春节假期国内旅游市场情况：春节假期 9 天，国内出游 5.96 亿人次，较 2025 年 8 天假期增加 0.95 亿人次；国内出游总花费 8034.83 亿元，较 2025 年 8 天假 ...

公 司 研 国资入主理顺机制，增量项目打开空间 三特索道(002159) 三特索道首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 许樱之(分析师) | 0755-82900465 | xuyingzhi@gtht.com | S0880525040012 | 本报告导读： 核心项目盈利强劲，国资入主理顺机制，新增项目及存量改造进一步打 开成长空间 社会服务业 [Table_Industry] /社会服务 | [Table_Invest] | 首次覆盖 | | --- | --- | | 评级 | 增持 | | 目标价格 | 28.80 | | | | [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 14.13-18.71 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(百万元) | 3,190 | | 总股本/流通A股(百万股) | 177/138 | | 流 ...

公 司 研 国资入主理顺机制，增量项目打开空间 三特索道(002159) 三特索道首次覆盖报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 许樱之(分析师) | 0755-82900465 | xuyingzhi@gtht.com | S0880525040012 | 本报告导读： 核心项目盈利强劲，国资入主理顺机制，新增项目及存量改造进一步打 开成长空间 投资要点： | [Table_Finance] 财务摘要(百万元) | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入 | 719 | 692 | 660 | 748 | 882 | | (+/-)% | 180.7% | -3.7% | -4.7% | 13.4% | 17.9% | | 净利润(归母) | 128 ...

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Overall Market Outlook - The tourism market is experiencing a significant boom during the extended Spring Festival holiday, which lasts for 9 days, benefiting from favorable weather conditions and travel patterns [1][8] - The demand for travel is expected to exceed expectations, driven by service consumption policies and the trend of multi-destination travel [1][8] Travel Trends - The extended holiday has reshaped travel structures, leading to a rise in multi-segment trips, with users averaging 5.9 days of travel, an increase of 1.1 days year-on-year [2] - There is a notable increase in travelers visiting multiple destinations, with a 19 percentage point rise in the proportion of tourists visiting two destinations [2] - The flow of travelers is shifting, with a significant increase in "reverse urbanization" as older generations travel to cities [2] Hotel Performance - Hotel occupancy rates (Occ) averaged 50.0% during the first seven days of the holiday, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year, with an average daily rate (ADR) of 300.4 yuan, an increase of 11.0% [3] - The average revenue per available room (RevPAR) reached 150.4 yuan, reflecting an 18.6% year-on-year growth, significantly surpassing pre-holiday expectations [3] Duty-Free Sales - Duty-free sales in Hainan have seen substantial growth, with sales reaching 13.8 billion yuan and 17.7 million visitors during the first five days of the holiday, marking increases of 19% and 24.6% respectively [5] - Sanya's duty-free sales exceeded 2 billion yuan on the first day of the Lunar New Year, maintaining above 2 billion yuan for several consecutive days, with year-on-year growth rates ranging from 18.2% to 36.7% [5] Scenic Spots - Tourist traffic at scenic spots has been robust, leading to several locations issuing crowd control notices [6] - Notable increases in visitor numbers have been reported at various attractions, with some locations experiencing double-digit growth year-on-year [6] Gaming Industry - Macau's visitor numbers during the holiday period showed a 7.9% increase year-on-year, with mainland visitors up 9.7%, indicating a strong recovery [7] - The gaming revenue growth rate for February is projected to be around 5%, supported by the holiday's long tail effect [7] Investment Strategy - The service industry is expected to benefit from supportive policies, with a focus on leisure travel and consumption [8] - Recommended investment themes include high-quality leisure travel stocks, stable and growth-oriented companies in the cyclical leisure sector, and companies with high demand elasticity in the recovering market [8]