各位投资者朋友大家上午好。欢迎来到 1 周一度的大摩宏观策略谈，我是邢自强 Robin。从七月份以来， 每一个礼拜一的电话会议里面，我们不断强调一个判断，水流来了。今天我们想系统性的整合对这个水 牛背后的一些逻辑框架，特别是融合最近投资者朋友们给我们的一些市场反馈。在未来这个水流的持续 性的驱动力，以及潜在的可能会改变它的一些制约因素上做一些分析。 发言人 00:39 当然了，这个水流来了也不是一个简单的口号。大家也会感觉到，七月初的时候，可能它是一个水流， 小荷才露尖尖角。但进入八月份以来，这个水温上的比较快，甚至有点略微烫人了。可以明显的感受到 我们周边的一些投资者问我们基本面的问题少了一些问资金面、问流动性、问宏大叙事的问题变多了。 特别是很多人都会问对水流的前世今生、历史规律，对它处于不同阶段有没有一些征兆，这方面的诉求 变强了。对这块因为术业有专攻，应该是由我们负责策略和跨了跨资产配置的 lyra 首席策略师和他的 团队更为擅长。但不巧的是上周出差东京，这周目前 Laura 在去美国的飞机上，所以缺席两次。但大 家可能从过去一周他和他的团队发布的研究报告，以及在像 bloomberg 之类做的访谈， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China is experiencing a significant increase in foreign tourist arrivals, particularly from Central Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Latin America, driven by simplified entry procedures and enhanced services [2][3] - In the first half of this year, 13.64 million foreign visitors entered China visa-free, accounting for 71.2% of total arrivals, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.9% [2] - The Chinese government has implemented various visa-free policies, including comprehensive mutual visa exemption with 29 countries and unilateral visa exemption for 46 countries, which has become the main channel for foreign tourists and business visitors [2] Group 2 - The booming inbound tourism reflects the growing appeal of China's cultural and tourism offerings, as well as the continuous optimization of the domestic consumption environment [3] - Enhanced services, such as smart upgrades in scenic area services and improved payment systems, contribute to a more comfortable experience for foreign tourists [3] - The positive experiences shared by foreign visitors serve as a recognition of China's consumer experience and act as a vibrant medium for cultural exchange [3]

Group 1 - The inbound tourism market in Liaoning province is experiencing rapid growth, with inbound visitor numbers increasing by 44.72% year-on-year and inbound tourism consumption rising by 47.03% [1] - East Asia is the primary source of inbound tourists, with South Korea and Japan accounting for nearly 40% of total visitor numbers, highlighting the importance of the East Asian market for Liaoning tourism [1] - The proportion of tourists staying for 4 days or more has increased to nearly 50%, indicating a preference for medium to long-term travel among international visitors [2] Group 2 - The age demographic of inbound tourists is becoming younger, with those aged 35 to 49 making up the largest share at 29.51%, and nearly 60% of visitors being under 50 years old [3] - Liaoning province is actively developing inbound tourism by enhancing the richness of tourism products and improving convenience in customs and consumption, aiming to receive over 1 million inbound tourists this year [3] - The province is focusing on optimizing tourism product offerings by leveraging historical and cultural resources, and promoting eco-tourism products that have international appeal [3] Group 3 - Efforts to improve inbound tourism services include streamlining visa application processes, enhancing customs services at key airports, and establishing one-stop tourism consultation points with multilingual signage [3] - Liaoning is expanding its international tourism market by deepening engagement with Northeast Asia while also cultivating emerging markets, conducting targeted marketing campaigns to attract more foreign visitors [3]

Group 1: Tourism Growth - The "May Day" holiday saw a significant increase in inbound tourism orders in China, indicating a strong recovery and potential in the inbound tourism market [1][4] - Wuhan led the central region with a 70% year-on-year increase in inbound tourism orders during the holiday [4] - The overall inbound tourism market in China is projected to grow 4 to 8 times over the next decade, with current inbound tourism revenue accounting for only 0.5% of GDP compared to 2% in developed countries like Italy and France [6] Group 2: Visitor Experience - Foreign tourists enjoyed unique experiences such as the "Yangtze Deck Sound Party," which featured a coordinated light show on the Yangtze River with 11 cruise ships [4] - The shopping experience for foreign tourists was enhanced by the availability of global products through efficient logistics networks, allowing for easy purchasing and shipping [6] - Many foreign tourists visiting China are first-timers, showing a high level of curiosity about Chinese culture and history [10][14] Group 3: Cultural Engagement - Tour guides, such as those specializing in historical sites like the Forbidden City, play a crucial role in enhancing the visitor experience by providing engaging and informative narratives [10] - The use of social media by tour guides has attracted a significant following, with over 800,000 fans, indicating a growing interest in personalized cultural experiences [12] - Tour guides are continuously optimizing their content to cater to diverse visitor needs, reflecting the evolving landscape of cultural tourism in China [12][14]

以下文章来源于表外表里 ，作者洞见数据研究院 表外表里 . 洞见数据研究院 2.1万亿入境游生意。 作者 I 陈梓洁 编辑 I 曹宾玲 付晓玲 来源 I 表里表外 （ID：excel-ers） Ch i na Tr a ve l，正从流量密码转化为徐盛的财富密码。 回成都专职干入境游的3个月，他已成功入账45万。跟表外表里通话时，他每隔一段时间，就会被业务消息打断——12月，订单量又暴 涨60%，预计收入将再创新高。 在这股热潮里，忙碌成为了行业的主旋律，广州英语导游蓝禾也不例外。 数据显示，得益于1 44小时过境免签政策，今年前三季度，我国入境游客约0 . 95亿人次，恢复至2019年九成以上，部分免签国家入境游 客数量翻倍增长。 免签政策延长至2 40小时（10天）后，外国游客的热情还将进一步激发——新政刚公布一小时，OTA平台海外游客机酒的搜索热度，已 同比大涨87%。 在各行各业普遍缺乏信心的年岁里，热到烫手的入境游一骑绝尘，成了为数不多"人人向往"的赛道，旅游业内玩家们也使出了十八般 武艺，争抢一口肥肉。 卖奢侈品，不如搞入境游 来询单的外国客户三句话还没问到价格，经验丰富的徐盛便敏锐察觉到，这极有 ...