2025 年市场更偏向以"进入特斯拉产业链"与"量产视角"评估产业链环节 机会，重点在于哪些零部件或环节可能凭借供应链切入获得增量；进入 2026 年后，事件与股价表现显示，单纯围绕"量产与产业链切入"的叙事边际影响 持续减弱。新的核心关注点转向"是否具备大脑能力或具备形成大脑能力的路 径"，重点识别哪些公司有机会形成具身智能的大脑模型；其投资机会与股价 表现更可能随模型能力的推进而持续演绎。 第一阶段选股聚焦"谁更有机会形成模型"，重点关注特斯拉产业链 （受益于自动驾驶技术迁移）和国内垂直应用领域公司（场景封闭、任 务单一，易于落地）。 中国人形机器人销量领先，但市值低于海外公司，核心差异在于 AI 研发 能力和大脑模型能力。2026 年具备模型能力的公司有望获得更高估值 溢价。 具身智能大模型相关投资机会的阶段划分与演进路径是什么，当前处于哪个阶 段？ 人形机器人大脑叙事新视角 20260226 摘要 人形机器人投资逻辑正从"量产与产业链切入"转向"大脑能力"，即 公司是否具备或有潜力形成具身智能大模型，模型能力推进将持续影响 股价表现。 大模型投资分三个阶段：模型形成、数据训练、异构训练。当前处于第 一 ...

行业研究 | 证券分析师：张程航 | 证券分析师：夏凉 | 证券分析师：李昊岚 | 联系人：张睿希 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 电话：021-20572543 | 电话：021-20572532 | 邮箱：lihaolan@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：zhangruixi@hcyjs.com | | 邮箱：zhangchenghang@hcyjs.com | 邮箱：xialiang@hcyjs.com | 执业编号：S0360524010003 | | | 执业编号：S0360519070003 | 执业编号：S0360522030001 | | | 汽车板块依然受零售较弱、材料涨价影响。我们预计 3 月零售将逐步回暖：影响 1-2 月 零售核心因素 3 个，1）去年递延到今年的消费者有价格观望，2）3 月新车上市带来的 观望，3）补贴程序开启节奏，我们预计 3 月随存量消费者减少、新车上市、补贴通道打 开都将逐步改善。材料涨价方面，我们测算 PHEV 碳酸锂成本同比涨约 1-2k，BEV 2- 4k，经济型存储成本同比涨几百元、高端型 1-3k。市场对材料涨价影响的评估相对 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车板块依然受零售较弱、材料涨价影响。我们预计 3 月零售将逐步回暖：影响 1-2 月 零售核心因素 3 个，1）去年递延到今年的消费者有价格观望，2）3 月新车上市带来的 观望，3）补贴程序开启节奏，我们预计 3 月随存量消费者减少、新车上市、补贴通道打 开都将逐步改善。材料涨价方面，我们测算 PHEV 碳酸锂成本同比涨约 1-2k，BEV 2- 4k，经济型存储成本同比涨几百元、高端型 1-3k。市场对材料涨价影响的评估相对线性、 担忧较多，但车企往往会通过一些方式去缓解，此外也要注意到不同类别的车影响不同， 如油车、经济型影响相对偏小：1）供应链降本/分摊、内部降本；2）减配；3）涨价：这 个在今年相对重要，因为续驶里程普遍需要提升，所以 3 月的新车、年改款如何重新定 价（涵盖材料涨价、用量提升），能否让消费者接受合理的价格上涨，会比较关键；4） 低中高配销售结构引导调整。此外，近期 AIDC 和缺电带动潍柴等柴发链大幅上行，成 为汽车板块的新增亮点，我们预计趋势还将持续。 投资建议： 一、数据跟踪 2 月上旬行业折扣率环比下降（油车为主）：折扣率 9.3%，同比+0 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [59]. Core Insights - The automotive parts sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.73%, ranking first among the SW automotive indices, with a year-to-date increase of 6.76% [3][18]. - The robotics sector experienced a slight increase of 0.08% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 2.63%, but underperformed compared to the automotive parts sector [3][30]. - Key developments include a strategic partnership between Zhiyuan Robotics and Minshi Group to accelerate the localization and deployment of robotics technology in Europe [3][41]. Summary by Sections Automotive Parts Sector Weekly Review - The automotive parts sector ranked first in the SW automotive index this week, with a year-to-date performance of +6.76% [3][18]. - The sector's PE (TTM) is at 88.37% historical percentile, and PB (LF) is at 81.92% historical percentile as of February 27, 2026 [3][28]. Robotics Sector Weekly Review - The robotics index increased by 0.08% this week, with a year-to-date performance of +2.63% [3][30]. - The latest PE (TTM) for the robotics sector is at 49.89% historical percentile, and PB (LF) is at 57.01% historical percentile as of February 27, 2026 [40]. Key Stock Tracking - Notable weekly gainers include Xingyuan Zhuomei (+10.64%), Bertley (+7.15%), and Feilong Co. (+7.11%) [3][48]. - Core stocks in the automotive parts sector include Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Minshi Group, and Junsheng Electronics, with specific recommendations based on EPS and PE dimensions [54]. Investment Recommendations - For the automotive parts sector, focus on structural opportunities by selecting product-oriented companies and those entering high-value segments to enhance ASP [54]. - In the robotics sector, look for certainty in opportunities, particularly with the anticipated release of Optimus V3 and the application of domestic manufacturers like Xiaopeng and Yushu [54].

从投资策略上看，预计部分强α汽零公司有望抵御行业风险，实现营收及盈利增长；数 据中心液冷及柴发/燃气轮机产业链、能确定进入特斯拉、Figure、智元、宇树等机器人 配套产业链的汽零及高级别自动驾驶产业链将持续迎来催化。建议持续关注燃气发电机/ 柴发产业链、人形机器人链、液冷产业链、出海链、智驾产业链公司。 汽车与零部件行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 北美电力紧张逻辑持续验证，继续关注燃 气发电机及液冷产业链公司 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 燃气发电机相关标的：银轮股份、潍柴动力；液冷相关标的：英维克、银轮股份、拓普 集团、飞龙股份、川环科技等；机器人相关标的：新泉股份、拓普集团、银轮股份、岱 美股份、三花智控、浙江荣泰、旭升集团、嵘泰股份、斯菱智驱、爱柯迪、精锻科技、 博俊科技、沪光股份等；智驾相关标的：经纬恒润、伯特利、德赛西威等；整车：比亚 迪、上汽集团、江淮汽车、赛力斯等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行影响汽车需求、上游原材料价格波动影响、车企价格战压力。 国家/地区 中国 行业 汽车与零部件行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 中性（维持） | 姜雪晴 | 执业证书编号：S086051206 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [59]. Core Insights - The automotive parts sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.73%, ranking first among the SW automotive indices, with a year-to-date increase of 6.76% [3][18]. - The robotics sector experienced a slight increase of 0.08% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 2.63%, but underperformed compared to the automotive parts sector [3][30]. - Key developments include a strategic partnership between Zhiyuan and Minshi Group to accelerate the localization and deployment of robotic technology in Europe, and the launch of a new quadruped robot by Yushu [3][41]. Automotive Parts Sector Summary - The SW automotive parts PE (TTM) is at the historical 88.37% percentile, while the PB (LF) is at 81.92% [3][28]. - The top five gainers in the automotive parts sector this week were: Xingyuan Zhuomei (+10.64%), Berteli (+7.15%), Feilong Co. (+7.11%), Changhua Group (+5.19%), and Yinlun Co. (+4.73%) [3][48]. - The sector's trading volume has shown a slight recovery post the Lunar New Year, but demand remains affected by market conditions [3][25]. Robotics Sector Summary - The latest trading day for the robotics sector shows a PE (TTM) at 1.36 times that of the broader market, with a PB (LF) at 1.84 times [40]. - The sector's trading activity has seen a modest increase due to performances at the Spring Festival Gala, although it remains at historical lows [37][30]. - Significant events include the entry of Zhiyuan into the German market and the unveiling of a humanoid robot by Honor at an upcoming exhibition [41][43]. Investment Recommendations - For the automotive parts sector, focus on structural opportunities by selecting product-oriented companies and those entering high-value segments to enhance ASP, particularly in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [3][54]. - In the robotics sector, look for certainty in opportunities, especially with the anticipated release of Optimus V3 and the application developments from companies like Xiaopeng, Yushu, and Zhiyuan [3][54].

Current Strategy Viewpoints - The capital market experienced fluctuations in early February but rebounded later in the month, primarily due to reduced trading activity before the Spring Festival and short-term policy guidance [1] - The market is expected to enter a phase of economic data and policy verification, with a seasonal increase in trading activity post-Spring Festival, laying a foundation for future market performance [1] - Upcoming economic and corporate profit data, along with the National People's Congress in March, will be crucial for setting the annual policy tone and economic targets, which are significant for the capital market [1] Sector Focus - Short-term focus on safe-haven assets and resource products due to tensions in the Middle East, including precious metals and oil sectors [2] - Long-term focus on growth and cyclical sectors, with particular attention to small-cap stocks that typically perform well in spring [2] - Key sectors to watch include humanoid robots, computing, and AI, benefiting from sustained industry enthusiasm and increased risk appetite among investors [2] Macro Overview - The upcoming National People's Congress will set the tone for the annual economy, with GDP growth targets expected to be set between 4.5% and 5% [8] - Fiscal policy is anticipated to include a deficit rate of 4.0% and new special bonds totaling 5 trillion yuan, indicating a significant increase in fiscal deficit compared to last year [8] Financial Engineering - The A-share market has seen a rise in industry crowding, particularly in media and resource sectors, with the media sector showing a crowding degree of 98.25% [12][14] - The resource sector continues to perform well, with price fluctuations leading to a decrease in crowding indicators, suggesting a potential for continued upward movement [13] Electronic Communication Industry - The upcoming GTC conference is expected to showcase new chip developments from NVIDIA, reinforcing AI as a core investment theme [24] - The demand for storage products is projected to rise significantly, driven by strong AI customer needs and price increases in the DRAM market [25] Computer Industry - The rapid iteration of domestic AI large models is expected to drive significant growth in computing power investments, with a focus on world model technology advancements [28] - The demand for AI-driven applications is anticipated to increase, leading to a surge in computing needs and infrastructure investments [29] New Energy Industry - Focus on hydrogen and ammonia projects, with government support for integrated energy bases expected to drive growth in this sector [32] - The electric power equipment sector is poised for growth due to ongoing global energy demands and potential easing of import restrictions in India [32] High-end Manufacturing Industry - The humanoid robot sector is entering a phase of mass production, with significant advancements showcased during the Spring Festival [35] - The North American AI supply chain remains robust, with ongoing demand for advanced equipment and materials expected to drive growth [36]

2026 年 2 月 28 日 行业点评 看好/维持 特斯拉的 V3 时刻：OptimusV3&星舰 V3 证券分析师：刘虹辰 电话：010-88321818 E-MAIL：liuhc@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190524010002 报告摘要 事件：近期，特斯拉 OptimusV3 进入亮相发布时间窗口，SpaceX 星 舰 V3 的飞行测试也已进入倒计时，同时 xAI 打造特斯拉宏大 AI 战略，加 速 FSD、Robotaxi、 Optimus 持续进化，特斯拉 AI 生态飞轮螺旋上升。 特斯拉的 V3 时刻：OptimusV3&星舰 V3。特斯拉 Optimus V3 进入亮 相发布时间窗口，并计划年内启动大规模量产，2027 年预计面向公众销 售。并且特斯拉已将弗里蒙特工厂的 Model S/X 产线改造为 Optimus 专 用产线，中期规划年产能达 100 万台。另据彭博，SpaceX 计划秘密提交 IPO 申请，估值或超 1.75 万亿美元，目标今年 6 月上市，今年 2 月初， SpaceX 与 xAI 宣布完成合并，新公司的估值达到 1.25 万亿美元。2025 年 Spa ...

2026 年 02 月 28 日 公司点评 买入/维持 拓普集团(601689) 目标价: 昨收盘:67.82 特斯拉 Optimus V3 亮相在即，发力液冷+商业航天 ◼ 走势比较 (40%) (24%) (8%) 8% 24% 40% 25/2/28 25/5/11 25/7/22 25/10/2 25/12/13 26/2/23 ◼ 股票数据 | 总股本/流通(亿股) | 17.38/17.38 | | --- | --- | | 总市值/流通(亿元) | 1,178.6/1,178 | | | .6 | | 12 个月内最高/最低价 | 86.88/42.43 | | (元) | | 相关研究报告 <<人形机器人飞轮启动，2026 爆款时 刻元年>>--2025-12-30 <<特斯拉的 Optimus 时刻， Gen3 剑 指百万产能>>--2025-11-01 <<特斯拉 Optimus Gen3 人形机器人 加速，AI 液冷启动>>--2025-08-31 证券分析师：刘虹辰 电话：010-88321818 E-MAIL：liuhc@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S11905240100 ...

2026年央视春晚的余温还未散尽，中国人形机器人已从舞台高光，奔向更广阔的全球竞技场。 开年短短两个月，国际舞台已被中国机器人占据C位。全球科技风向标CES2026展会上，超过一半的人形机器人来自中国，彰显中国产业实力； 近日，德国总理默茨访华期间专程走进宇树科技，现场观看人形机器人拳击表演，成为中国机器人走向世界的生动注脚； 智元机器人短短一月内接连落子马来西亚、意大利、德国，全球化布局一路提速； 头顶"人形机器人第一股"光环的优必选颇具代表性。截至2025年上半年，其海外业务占比提升至33.6%，消费级机器人（宠物、割草、泳池机器人）成为 热销主力。 目前其出海模式已从单纯的产品出口，转向设立区域总部、建设研发生产基地、与全球行业巨头合作的多元化布局，以此推进本地化运营，打通资源壁 垒，搭建全球化业务体系。 在全球合作方面，在欧洲与法国航空巨头空中客车签署服务协议，为其制造工厂提供Walker S2工业人形机器人，参与航空制造环节落地高端应用，也为 进一步拓展欧洲市场奠定了基础。在北美，优必选携手半导体巨头德州仪器，拓展先进制造领域，在亚太联合新加坡物流企业推进无人物流解决方案落 地； 三花智控、拓普集团 ...