1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. Although the "Anti - involution" policy continuously boosts market sentiment, in the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1216 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1200 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 16 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot. The closing price decreased by 0.73%, the low - end price in Shahe dropped by 0.83%, and the basis increased by 6.67% [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market 3.2.1 Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 135.20 yuan/ton, and that of the East China joint - soda process is - 95.50 yuan/ton, at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. 3.2.2 Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.10%, and the expected operating rate will decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash is 73.32 tons, including 41.47 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. 3.2.3 Changes in Production Capacity - In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; and the planned newly - added production capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand 3.3.1 Sales - to - Production Ratio - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 94.24% [24]. 3.3.2 Downstream Demand - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.78 tons, and the operating rate is 75.63% and remains stable. The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Affected by the "Anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has decreased significantly [27][30]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national soda ash factories is 190.56 tons, an increase of 2.26% compared with the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [32]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [33]. 3.6 Influencing Factors 3.6.1 Bullish Factors - The "Anti - involution" policy boosts market sentiment [3]. 3.6.2 Bearish Factors - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. Risk points include the unexpected low cold - repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass and unexpected macro - level benefits [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in Q2 2025 [6]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery after a significant decline in prices, with supply disruptions increasing and clear bottom signals emerging. The industry is expected to see improved performance as demand gradually picks up [5][6]. - Key sub-sectors expected to show significant profit growth in H1 2025 include pesticides, fluorochemicals, civil explosives, potassium fertilizers, sweeteners, semiconductor manufacturing and packaging materials, display materials, and modified plastics [5]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on specific segments that are likely to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics, including traditional cyclical sectors and emerging growth areas such as electronic materials and new energy materials [6][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In Q2 2025, the chemical industry is projected to recover from previous downturns, with Brent crude oil prices averaging $68.03 per barrel, down 20% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter. Natural gas prices increased by 52% year-on-year but decreased by 9% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The report notes that the overall operating rate in the industry is expected to rise, with downstream demand gradually following suit, despite previous inventory levels being relatively high [5]. Key Company Forecasts - Major companies in the chemical sector are expected to report varying profit results for Q2 2025. For instance, Wanhua Chemical is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.5 billion yuan, down 38% year-on-year, while Baofeng Energy is expected to report a profit of 3 billion yuan, up 59% year-on-year [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the performance of specific companies, such as Juhua Co., which is expected to see a profit of 1.25 billion yuan, up 139% year-on-year, and Sanmei Co., projected to achieve 600 million yuan, up 162% year-on-year [5][9]. Sector-Specific Insights - The fluorochemical sector is highlighted for its ongoing positive trends, with the report suggesting that the adjustment of quota systems will not alter the long-term upward trajectory of refrigerants [7]. - The tire industry is also noted for potential recovery, with major players expected to benefit from improved cost structures and demand dynamics despite facing challenges from trade tariffs [7]. Growth Opportunities - The report identifies growth opportunities in the semiconductor materials sector, with companies like Yake Technology expected to report stable earnings. The domestic semiconductor industry is progressing towards greater self-sufficiency, which is anticipated to drive demand for related materials [7]. - New energy materials are also highlighted, with companies like Xinzhou Bang expected to see growth in profits, reflecting the ongoing transition towards sustainable energy solutions [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The downstream glass market's recovery boosts the sentiment of the soda ash market, but the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1208 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1195 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 13 yuan, with a decline of - 0.49%, - 0.42%, and - 7.14% respectively compared with the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China joint - soda process is - 113.50 yuan/ton, at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 81.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output is 70.89 tons, including 40.01 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant expansion of soda ash production capacity, with new production capacity of 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned new production capacity of 750 tons in 2025 (with 100 tons actually put into production) [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.84 tons, and the operating rate is 75.68%, showing a stable recovery [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide is 186.34 tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese stock market, economic policies, and various sectors including financial technology, real estate, and construction materials. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Positioning and Investor Sentiment** The market has reached a critical point at 3400, leading to investor concerns about potential economic pressures and uncertainties in international relations [1][5][11] 2. **Economic Awareness Among Investors** Investors have a well-formed understanding of the economic landscape, having priced in both current and future pressures on the Chinese economy over the past three years [2][9] 3. **Government Policies and Market Stability** Recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market and economy are seen as timely and effective, contrasting with previous delays in policy implementation [3][5][11] 4. **Risk Premium and Investment Choices** The decline in risk premiums and the drop in risk-free interest rates suggest that the stock market may offer better returns compared to other asset classes, making it an attractive option for investors [6][7][9] 5. **Investment Recommendations** The focus is on sectors such as financial technology and cyclical goods, particularly in materials like rare earths, chemicals, and real estate, which are expected to perform well due to supply constraints and increased domestic demand [10][11] 6. **Real Estate Market Dynamics** Concerns about the second-hand housing market are noted, with a significant increase in listings potentially leading to price declines; however, the overall market sentiment is not as pessimistic as in previous years [12][14] 7. **Construction Materials and Pricing Trends** The construction materials sector, particularly cement, is experiencing price adjustments, but overall prices remain higher than last year, indicating a potential for profitability despite recent fluctuations [18][20] 8. **Coal Industry Outlook** The coal industry is expected to enter an upward price trend starting in June, driven by decreasing inventory levels and increasing demand as temperatures rise [39][42] 9. **Steel Industry Performance** The steel sector is witnessing stable demand, with a shift from real estate-driven demand to manufacturing, indicating a structural change in consumption patterns [30][31] 10. **Electricity Generation and Renewable Energy** The electricity sector shows mixed performance, with traditional coal power expected to perform well, while renewable energy sources face competitive pressures in certain regions [56][59] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Investor Behavior** Many investors are currently in a cautious state, reflecting on past experiences where policy responses were slow, but there is a growing optimism due to recent proactive measures [5][9] 2. **Long-term Economic Policies** The discussion highlights the importance of long-term economic policies and structural reforms in enhancing the investment climate in China, particularly in the stock market [8][9] 3. **Sector-Specific Recommendations** Specific companies and sectors are recommended based on their competitive advantages and market positioning, indicating a strategic approach to investment in the current economic climate [23][25][34] 4. **Market Sentiment and Future Expectations** The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with expectations of improved performance in various sectors as economic conditions stabilize and government policies take effect [11][12][39]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **soda ash industry** in China, focusing on production capacity, supply-demand dynamics, and pricing trends [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32]. Key Points and Arguments Production Capacity and Supply - The production capacity of soda ash has been steadily increasing over the past five years, with significant contributions from various production methods, including **soda ash from natural sources** and **soda ash from soda-lime** [1][5]. - The **Henan region** is highlighted as a major production base, with new projects contributing to supply growth [2][3]. - The total production capacity in the industry is reported to be around **525 million tons**, with a projected supply surplus expected to continue into **2025** [7][19][21]. Demand Dynamics - Soda ash is primarily used in industries such as **power generation, coking, and steel**, which are experiencing varying levels of demand [2][11]. - The demand for soda ash is influenced by environmental regulations, particularly in the steel and coking sectors, which have increased the need for soda ash in **desulfurization processes** [11][12]. Pricing Trends - The average monthly supply of soda ash in **2023** is around **180,000 tons**, with expectations for growth in **2024** and **2025** [7][19]. - Pricing trends indicate a downward trajectory, with prices fluctuating between **1800 to 2500 RMB** per ton, influenced by production costs and market dynamics [10][14][18][20]. - The correlation between raw material prices and soda ash prices is strong, with a correlation coefficient of **0.9244** [9]. Export Dynamics - Exports of soda ash are significant, with approximately **60,000 tons** exported annually, contributing to domestic price stability [21][22]. - Major export destinations include **South Korea, Brazil, and India**, with a growing demand from these markets [24][25][26]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to face challenges due to overcapacity and fluctuating demand, with potential price rebounds dependent on upstream production adjustments and market conditions [20][30][31][32]. - The relationship between soda ash and soda-lime production is critical, as the latter's capacity expansion could impact the former's market dynamics [27][28][29]. Additional Insights - The conference notes emphasize the importance of monitoring international market trends and raw material costs, as these factors significantly influence domestic pricing and competitiveness [26][30]. - The potential for further production capacity increases in the soda ash sector is acknowledged, which may exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in the future [19][30]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the soda ash industry, highlighting production, demand, pricing, export dynamics, and future outlook.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a year-to-date increase of 8.9%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.2 percentage points [4][16] - The global potash market is characterized by oligopoly, with major producers controlling supply and prices. Recent production cuts by key players are expected to sustain potash market conditions [5][27] - Phosphate supply remains tight, with stable prices and potential improvements in export opportunities as demand increases [5][27] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, with a focus on cyclical investment opportunities [13] - The chemical industry is entering a new long-term prosperity cycle, driven by improved fundamentals and reduced risks [13][14] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.5% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.4 percentage points [16] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 8.9%, significantly outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [16][18] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 298 stocks rose while 123 fell during the week [25] - The top performers included companies like Shangwei New Materials (+72.9%) and Hongbo New Materials (+24.7%) [25][26] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The autumn fertilizer preparation has begun, with a focus on investment opportunities in potash and phosphate fertilizers [27] - Major potash producers have announced production cuts, which are expected to tighten supply and support prices [5][27] - Phosphate prices remain stable, with potential for improved export conditions as demand increases [5][27] 5. Product Price Changes - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with notable gains in dimethylamine (+16.7%) and fatty alcohol (+8.2%) [6] - Conversely, urea prices have seen a significant decline (-15%) [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.7.7-7.11 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 上周纯碱期货低位震荡抬升，主力合约SA2509收盘较前一周上涨3.66%报1217元/吨。现 货方面，河北沙河重碱低端价1200元/吨，较前一周上涨0.84%。 供给方面，前期检修逐步结束，供应稳步提升，暂无新增检修计划，预计下周产量73万 吨，开工率84%。需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃需求一般，按需为主，存货意向不足。目前 浮法消费相对稳定，光伏受"反内卷"政策影响，大幅减产，消费下降；周内，浮法日熔量 15.84万吨，环比增加600吨；光伏日熔量9.20万吨，环比稳定。下周，浮法生产线稳定，光 伏减量幅度在2300吨左右。截止7月11日，全国纯碱厂内库存186.34万吨，较前一周增加 2.98%， ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The upstream supply of soda ash is at a high level, the improvement of terminal demand is limited, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1217 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1200 yuan/ton, and the main basis was - 17 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.14%, the low - end price in Shahe increased by 0.50%, and the main basis decreased by 54.05% compared with the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe market was 1200 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process was - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production process was - 113.50 yuan/ton. The production profit was at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 81.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output was 70.89 tons, including 40.01 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there was a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The planned new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025 (with an actual production of 100 tons) [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash was 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.84 tons, and the operating rate was 75.68%, showing a stable recovery [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry cut production, and the daily melting volume in production decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories was 186.34 tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the five - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows the changes in effective capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, and other indicators of soda ash over the years, as well as the corresponding supply - demand differences and growth rates [35]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The rebound of the downstream glass market boosted the sentiment of the soda ash market [3]. - Negative factors: The supply of soda ash was at a high level, the improvement of terminal demand was limited, and the inventory was at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry had not been effectively improved [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, with specific buy and hold recommendations for various companies [2][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the closure of Dow's organic silicon production capacity in Barry, UK, which is expected to increase domestic export demand and support the upstream industrial silicon costs, indicating a potential reversal in the organic silicon industry [4][5]. - The demand for high-end AI PCBs is projected to surge due to the continuous growth in computing power requirements, driven by GPU, ASIC, and 800G switch technologies [4]. - The report notes that the recent tariff announcements from the US on imports from Southeast Asia are lower than expected, stabilizing pessimistic market sentiments [4]. Industry Dynamics - The macroeconomic outlook for the chemical industry indicates a significant increase in oil supply led by non-OPEC countries, with a stable global GDP growth rate of 2.8% [5]. - The report mentions that coal prices are expected to decline in the medium to long term, alleviating pressure on downstream sectors [5]. - Natural gas exports from the US are anticipated to accelerate, potentially lowering import costs [5]. Company Recommendations - Companies to watch in the organic silicon sector include Dongyue Silicon Materials, Xin'an Chemical, and Xingfa Group [4]. - In the PCB sector, recommended companies include Shengquan Group, Dongcai Technology, Lianrui New Materials, Yake Technology, Tiancheng Technology, and Jiuri New Materials [4]. - For traditional cyclical stocks, the report suggests focusing on leading companies in various segments such as Wanhu Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy [4]. Price Trends - The report provides specific price movements for various chemical products, such as PTA prices decreasing by 2.8% to 4715 RMB/ton, while MEG prices increased by 0.7% to 4409 RMB/ton [11]. - Urea prices rose by 2.9% to 1800 RMB/ton, while phosphate prices remained stable [12]. - The report notes that the price of DMC increased by 1.9% to 11000 RMB/ton, indicating a recovery in the organic silicon market [15].

Group 1: Market Management and Investor Relations - The company focuses on enhancing operational management, investor returns, and improving investor relations and corporate governance to increase investment value [1][4] - The company is monitoring the market dynamics closely and adapting its strategies to respond to industry changes [2][5] Group 2: Financial Performance and Loan Utilization - The company applied for a total of 56.5 billion in new loans, primarily for key project construction and to support daily operational cash flow [2][6] - The company emphasizes compliance with legal disclosure obligations regarding financial performance and will disclose any significant changes as required [2][5] Group 3: Production and Cost Management - The company is exploring cost reduction measures for soda ash production, including alternative energy sources like solar and wind power [2][6] - Current transportation methods for soda ash include road, rail, and combined transport to ensure logistics efficiency [2][5] Group 4: Industry Trends and Competitive Position - The company has a competitive advantage in exporting soda ash to ASEAN countries compared to the U.S. [1][2] - The company is committed to green development and responding to national carbon reduction strategies while enhancing product quality [2][5] Group 5: Future Development Goals - The company aims to solidify its compliance governance and develop a competitive industry position over the next five years, focusing on the entire natural soda ash industry chain [2][6]