1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Report's Core View - The paper pulp market is expected to continue a wide - range oscillatory trend in the short term, with supply pressure from high port inventories and weak demand in the downstream raw paper market. The market lacks a breakthrough driver, and a weak balance has formed between long and short factors. Attention should be paid to the update of foreign offers and the post - holiday start - up and raw material replenishment plans of large downstream paper mills [93]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of January 4, 2026, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port was 548,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous period, a 17.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous week, a 1.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Gaolan Port was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease [5][6]. - In November 2025, the European port pulp inventory decreased by 1.07% month - on - month and 2.80% year - on - year; the global pulp outbound volume decreased by 3.61% month - on - month and 6.90% year - on - year [48]. - In late December 2025, domestic white cardboard and food packaging paper industries started a price - repair process. Leading paper enterprises such as Bohui and APP announced price increases starting from January 2026, with the main product of white cardboard increasing by 200 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Basis and Spread - On December 31, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 68 yuan/ton, a 326.67% month - on - month increase and an 85.09% year - on - year decrease; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 132 yuan/ton, a 42.61% month - on - month increase and a 200.00% year - on - year decrease; the silver star - Russian needle spread was 200 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change and a 60.00% year - on - year decrease [14]. - On December 31, 2025, the 01 - 03 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, a 25.00% month - on - month decrease; the 03 - 05 spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 5.88% month - on - month increase [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - On December 31, 2025, the silver star - goldfish spread was 900 yuan/ton, a 3.23% month - on - month decrease and a 45.45% year - on - year decrease; the Russian needle - goldfish spread was 700 yuan/ton, a 4.11% month - on - month decrease and a 39.13% year - on - year decrease [25]. - On December 31, 2025, the import profit of silver star pulp was - 39.78 yuan/ton, a 12.22% month - on - month increase and a 29.55% year - on - year increase; the import profit of star pulp was 92.75 yuan/ton, a 59.25% month - on - month increase and a 39.14% year - on - year decrease [28]. - The price of domestic coniferous pulp remained stable last week, with weak demand and light actual - order transactions. The price of imported broad - leaf pulp was supported by tight supply and cost, and traders were holding prices [30][32]. 3.3.2 Supply - The purchase price of wood chips by paper enterprises in East China remained stable last week [39]. - The price of domestic broad - leaf pulp increased this period. In November 2025, the European paper pulp port inventory and the global pulp outbound volume continued to decline [43][48]. - In October 2025, the W20 coniferous pulp shipment was at a low level with high inventory; the broad - leaf pulp inventory was at a high level, but the shipment decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [50]. - In November 2025, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China decreased significantly month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year. In September 2025, the export volume of coniferous pulp from four countries (Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States) to China increased month - on - month and year - on - year [53][56]. - In November 2025, the export volume of Brazilian broad - leaf pulp to China decreased significantly month - on - month, and the export volumes of Uruguay and Chile decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [59]. - In November 2025, China's pulp imports increased, with coniferous pulp increasing by 4.93% month - on - month and broad - leaf pulp increasing by 33.85% month - on - month [62]. 3.3.3 Demand - The price of domestic offset paper remained stable last week, with stable production by large - scale paper enterprises, limited enthusiasm of dealers for purchasing, and weak social demand [66]. - The domestic coated paper market was mainly in a narrow - range adjustment last period, with poor order - receiving by paper mills, some reducing production, and weak social demand [70]. - The price of white cardboard remained stable last period, with increased production. Large - scale paper mills supported the market, and terminal orders were scattered [74]. - The price increase of the household paper market slowed down last week, with stable supply, downstream processing plants purchasing on demand, and raw material price fluctuations slowing down [78]. - In November 2025, the retail sales of books, newspapers, magazines, catering revenue, and Chinese and Western medicines increased significantly month - on - month, while the retail sales of cosmetics decreased significantly month - on - month [82]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of December 26, 2025, the total inventory of five ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao) was 1.906 million tons, a 4.37% month - on - month decrease and a 2.64% year - on - year increase. The inventory in Qingdao Port and Changshu Port increased during the holiday as of January 4, 2026 [90][93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp market is expected to continue a wide - range oscillatory trend in the short - term, with a weak balance formed by multi - and short - factors at the current position. It's recommended to pay attention to the update of foreign market quotes and the post - holiday start - up and raw material replenishment plans of large downstream paper mills [96]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Industry News - As of January 4, 2026, the pulp inventory in Changshu Port reached 548,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons from the previous period, a 17.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Qingdao Port was 1.339 million tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from the previous week, a 1.1% month - on - month increase; the pulp inventory in Gaolan Port was 21,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week, a 36.4% month - on - month decrease [5][6]. - In November 2025, the month - end inventory of European port pulp decreased by 1.1% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, with the total inventory dropping from 1.404 million tons at the end of October to 1.389 million tons [6]. - In November 2025, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 46 days (standard calculation method). The total shipment volume decreased by 6.9% year - on - year [7]. - In late December 2025, domestic white cardboard and food packaging paper industries started a price repair process. Leading paper enterprises such as Bohui and APP announced price increase plans, and Wuzhou Special Paper also followed suit [7]. 3.2 Market Data - As of December 31, 2025, the basis of silver star pulp was 68 yuan/ton, a 326.67% increase from the previous period; the basis of Russian needle pulp was - 132 yuan/ton, a 42.61% increase from the previous period; the price difference between silver star and Russian needle pulp was 200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous period [14]. - As of December 31, 2025, the 01 - 03 month - spread was - 40 yuan/ton, a 25% decrease from the previous period; the 03 - 05 month - spread was - 32 yuan/ton, a 5.88% increase from the previous period [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The price difference between needle and broadleaf pulp narrowed, and the import profit rebounded. In January 2026, the FOB prices of broadleaf pulp from Brazil and Indonesia increased by $20/ton [23][29]. - The price of imported needle pulp in the domestic market remained stable, and the price of imported broadleaf pulp was supported by cost and supply, with traders holding prices and waiting for real orders [31][33]. - The price of domestic broadleaf pulp increased, and the price of domestic chemical mechanical pulp remained stable [44][46]. 3.3.2 Supply - The wood chip purchase price of paper enterprises in East China remained stable this week [40]. - In November 2025, the inventory of European port pulp continued to decline, and the global pulp shipping volume also continued to decline [49]. - In October 2025, the shipment volume of W20 needle pulp was at a low level with high inventory; the inventory of broadleaf pulp was at a high level, but the shipment volume decreased, and the inventory days returned to a year - on - year high [51]. - In November 2025, the export volume of Chilean needle pulp to China decreased significantly month - on - month and was at a low level year - on - year; the export volume of four - country (Brazil, Indonesia, Uruguay, Chile) broadleaf pulp to China decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [54][61]. - In November 2025, China's pulp imports increased, with needle pulp increasing by 4.93% month - on - month and broadleaf pulp increasing by 33.85% month - on - month [63]. 3.3.3 Demand - This week, the price of domestic offset paper remained stable, the price of copperplate paper was slightly adjusted, the price of white cardboard was stable with increased production, the price increase of household paper slowed down, and the terminal demand showed different trends in November [67][71][75][79][83]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of December 31, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 104,500 tons, a 3.69% increase from the previous period [86]. - Overall, the port inventory was at a relatively low level within the year, and the sample inventory of domestic mainstream ports showed a destocking trend last week [93]. 3.4 This Week's View Summary - Supply: Port inventory remained at a high level, and supply pressure persisted. As of January 4, 2026, Qingdao Port and Changshu Port had inventory accumulation during the holiday [96]. - Demand: In the downstream base paper market, the price of household paper was mainly range - bound, the overall trading atmosphere improved little, and market sentiment was cautious [96]. - View: It is expected that the market will lack a breakthrough driver in the short - term, and a weak balance will be formed by long and short factors at the current position. The market is predicted to continue a wide - range oscillatory trend within the range. Attention should be paid to the update of foreign market quotes and the post - holiday start - up and raw material replenishment plans of large downstream paper mills [96]. - Valuation: From the perspective of basis, on the 31st, the basis of silver star needle pulp in Shandong was 68 yuan/ton, an increase of 36 yuan/ton [96]. - Strategy: 1) Unilateral: Adopt an interval operation idea [5200 - 5860]; 2) Inter - period: Observe; 3) Inter - variety: Observe [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp and paper industry is undergoing significant structural changes, with broadleaf pulp gradually seizing market share from softwood pulp, and the industry is facing challenges such as overcapacity and compressed downstream profits [50][52][59] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Mill Capacity: Is It in the Clearance Stage? - **Market Structure of Commodity Pulp**: Global commodity pulp capacity is dominated by broadleaf pulp, accounting for about 50%, followed by softwood pulp at about 20%. Suzano, APP, and UPM are major players [5] - **Pulp Production Cost Curve**: The average cash cost of BHKP is 289 dollars/ton for 70% of the capacity, and the CIF China break - even point (excluding logistics) is 580 - 600 dollars/ton for 70% - 75% of the capacity. For BSKP, the average cash cost is 500 dollars/ton for 41% of the capacity, and the CIF China break - even point (excluding logistics) is 445 - 465 dollars/ton for 85% - 90% of the capacity [8] - **Company Performance Analysis** - **SUZANO**: In 25Q1 - Q3, revenue was 37 billion reais, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Operating cost was 24.8 billion reais, a year - on - year increase of 33%. Operating profit was 7.5 billion reais, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. Net profit rebounded significantly mainly due to less derivative losses last year. Pulp revenue accounts for about 80% of the company's revenue [10][13] - **ARAUCO**: Q3 revenue was 1.5 billion dollars, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of 1%. Gross profit was 350 million dollars, with a gross profit margin of 23%. The company has been unprofitable since 2025, and Q3 net profit after non - recurring items was underwater. Pulp business EBITDA Margin is about 26.5% [22] - **Metsa Group**: Sales revenue increased, but profit reached a new low. In Q3, the operating profit margin was - 12%. Pulp sales continued to rise [26] - **Mercer**: In 25Q3, revenue was 458 million dollars, flat quarter - on - quarter. Gross profit was negative for two consecutive quarters. Net profit after non - recurring items was - 81 million dollars, the lowest since 2023. There was no substantial production cut [29][31][33] - **UPM**: Revenue continued to decline, with about 2.3 billion euros in 25Q3. Q3 gross profit margin was only 0.3%. Net profit was 18 million euros, with a net profit margin of 0.8%. ROCE in Q3 was 2.4%, the lowest in nearly two years [37][39][42] - **Solvency Analysis**: Most pulp mill asset - liability ratios are below 60%. As of Q3 2025, Mercer's asset - liability ratio was about 68.1%, and Suzano's was 60.7%. Most pulp mills' EBIT interest coverage ratios are above 1, but Arauco's was 0.36 and Mercer's was - 2.37 as of Q3 [45] 3.2 What Structural Changes Are Taking Place Currently? - **Difference between Softwood and Broadleaf Pulp Prices**: The price difference between softwood and broadleaf pulp has been widening. Broadleaf pulp capacity growth is faster than that of softwood pulp, and broadleaf pulp is gradually seizing market share from softwood pulp. The global consumption of commodity pulp is 67.7 million tons, of which about 64.6% is broadleaf pulp [50][52][53] - **Consumption Situation in Europe**: European softwood pulp monthly consumption is stable at 20 - 25 tons, far from recovering to the pre - energy - crisis level. European broadleaf pulp monthly consumption is above 50 tons and has returned to normal [55] - **Apparent Consumption and Paper Formula Adjustment**: Softwood pulp monthly apparent consumption is maintained at 60 - 80 tons, while broadleaf pulp monthly apparent consumption has increased from about 140 tons to 180 tons. The proportion of toilet paper and white cardboard has increased to about 35%, and the proportion of cultural paper has decreased. The pulp formula of toilet paper and double - glue paper has been deeply adjusted [58] - **Profit and Capacity Expansion of Finished Paper**: Downstream profits are continuously compressed, and the apparent profit per ton of many finished papers has turned negative. From 2025 to 2026, a large amount of new paper - making capacity is planned to be put into production, mainly in toilet paper, cultural paper, and white cardboard [59] - **Industrial Chain Inventory**: As of November, European softwood pulp inventory was 27 days, and broadleaf pulp inventory was 26 days. Pulp mill softwood pulp inventory days reached 48 days, a historical high for the same period, and broadleaf pulp inventory days were 45 days, flat month - on - month. Domestic pulp inventory has started to decline, with a structural surplus of softwood pulp [62] - **Stable Growth of Broadleaf Pulp Consumption**: The natural demand for BHKP may increase to 459,000 tons, with a CAGR of + 2.1%. Emerging markets contribute the main increment, and toilet paper and specialty paper are the main drivers [64] 3.3 Future Development Trends of the Pulp and Paper Industry Chain - **Industry Status**: The cumulative revenue of the paper - making industry was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. The profit was 31.22 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The industry loss area exceeded 30%, and the cumulative loss of loss - making enterprises reached 16.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 10%, the highest in the same period in history. The SW paper - making industry index had a revenue of 125.7 billion yuan in 2025Q1 - Q3, a year - on - year decrease of 12%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of - 1.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 138%. The asset - liability ratio of listed paper enterprises exceeded 60%, and the current ratio and quick ratio fell below 1 [68][71] - **Integration of Forest, Pulp, and Paper**: Leading paper enterprises are implementing pulp - paper integration strategies, and some enterprises have a high degree of forest - pulp - paper integration. Domestic wood pulp consumption has increased from 9.5 million tons in 2015 to 26 million tons in 2024, and imported wood pulp has increased from 17.57 million tons to 25.95 million tons. The proportion of domestic wood pulp has increased from less than one - third to 50% [76] - **Integration Project Commissioning**: From 2025 to 2029, about 4.6 million tons of self - used BHKP capacity will be put into production in China. It is expected that the output of major wood - pulp - based finished papers will increase by 2.58 million tons in 2029, and self - used pulp will crowd out 2.66 million tons of commercial pulp demand for these paper types [80] - **Supply - Demand Changes of Commercial Pulp**: BHKP commercial pulp capacity will increase from 46.5 million tons to 50.5 million tons from 2024 to 2029E. Although demand continues to grow, capacity utilization will decline due to new capacity. The commissioning of integrated capacity is expected to reduce the demand for broadleaf commercial pulp by 4.4 million tons from 2024 to 2029 [83]

021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 行业 纸浆日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635727 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员:李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅多晶硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 期货从业资格号：F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Nine Dragons Paper (02689) has seen a stock price increase of over 4%, currently trading at HKD 6.27, with a transaction volume of HKD 26.3755 million [1] - Nine Dragons, Lee & Man, and Shanying have announced maintenance plans for January to February 2026, expecting a reduction of approximately 270,000 tons of packaging paper, primarily corrugated cardboard [1] - Major companies including Shanying, Nine Dragons, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper have issued price increase notices, planning to raise prices for their products between late November and early December [1] Group 2 - According to CICC, the recent price increase for corrugated cardboard and waste paper began in July, initially driven by domestic waste raw material costs and later supported by seasonal demand and maintenance shutdowns from leading companies [1] - The production of cultural paper has declined year-on-year in the first ten months, indicating potential pressure on industry prices and profit per ton in 2026 [1] - The supply-demand imbalance for white card paper remains unresolved, suggesting that the sustainability of price increases in the future may be low [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in pulp futures prices is primarily driven by marginal improvements in the market fundamentals, following a period of decline due to oversupply and high inventory levels [4][17]. Supply Side - In October, China's pulp imports totaled 2.618 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%. However, cumulative imports from January to October 2025 increased by 4.79% to 29.674 million tons [7]. - The average operating rate for broadleaf pulp in November was 62.5%, down 7.7 percentage points month-on-month, indicating some production adjustments in the industry [7]. Inventory Side - As of the end of November, the total pulp inventory at major Chinese ports was approximately 2.031 million tons, an increase of 6.17% from the previous month, reflecting a growing inventory pressure [9]. - The import volume of pulp is expected to see only a slight increase in December due to ongoing high inventory levels and weak external market performance [9]. Demand Side - The average operating rate for various paper types in November was 61.29%, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.78 percentage points. However, production levels for life paper decreased by 2.71% compared to the previous month [11]. - The overall price performance of different paper types in November was mixed, with life paper prices slightly rising while other types like double copper paper continued to decline [12]. Market Sentiment - Recent market analysis indicates that the pulp market is experiencing a rebound due to the digestion of previous negative factors and the emergence of new balance, with cost support and improved market sentiment driving prices upward [17][19]. - Despite the recent price increases, the market remains cautious due to high inventory levels and the need for substantial improvements in demand to sustain long-term price increases [18][19].

分析认为，基本的边际改善成为短期刺激纸浆价格快速拉涨的主要驱动。 自11月中旬以来，纸浆期价受限于基本面的宽松压力，连续十个交易日下跌之后，又在11月最后一个交 易日盘中刷新了一个月新低。但进入12月，得益于基本面出现的边际改善信号，纸浆期价企稳获得动 力。 新华财经北京12月3日电（吴郑思）纸浆成为3日国内商品市场表现最为抢眼的品种。截至发稿时，纸浆 期货主力合约以3.15%的涨幅领涨市场，并连续第二个交易日大幅走高。若这一强势延续到收盘，意味 着纸浆期价有望在两个交易日内收复此前逾半个月的跌幅。 在期货盘面急涨的同时，纸浆现货也表现出积极态势。据隆众资讯观察，今日（12月3日）国内纸浆市 场呈现期现联动回暖的态势。纸浆期价的大幅走高带动现货市场情绪好转，询盘随之增加。不过，该机 构也表示，市场整体交投情绪改善有限，下游需求仅呈现边际改善，且尽管生活用纸价格有所上涨，但 多数纸种采购仍维持刚需模式。"从基本面看，纸浆市场核心矛盾并未发生根本性转变。预计纸浆市场 仍将维持区间内整理运行，建议关注港口库存变动及下游原纸厂家市场采购积极性变动。" 隆众资讯的数据显示，截至上周四（11月27日），中国纸浆主流港口样 ...

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry stocks are experiencing an upward trend, with major companies announcing price increases for their products in late November to early December, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) saw a stock increase of 5.25%, reaching HKD 6.41, while Lee & Man Paper (02314) rose by 4.65% to HKD 3.15 [1] - Major companies such as Shanying, Nine Dragons, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper have issued price adjustment notices for their products [1] Group 2: Price Adjustments - The upcoming price increases will affect both packaging paper and corrugated paper, with packaging paper experiencing a moderate increase of around CNY 50 per ton [1] - Cultural paper types, such as copy paper and double offset paper, will see a more significant price increase of CNY 200 per ton [1] Group 3: Industry Outlook - According to a report from Industrial Securities, the paper industry faced pressure on revenue and profits in Q3, but Q4 is expected to be a traditional demand peak season [1] - The anticipated price increases are expected to be partially or fully realized, alongside rising costs for waste paper and pulp, suggesting an upward trend in industry sentiment [1] - Industry leaders such as Sun Paper (002078) and Nine Dragons Paper are recommended for attention due to these developments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The paper industry stocks are experiencing an upward trend, with notable increases in share prices for companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper, driven by upcoming price hikes for various paper products [1] Group 1: Price Adjustments - Major companies including Shanying, Nine Dragons, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper have announced plans to increase prices for their products between late November and early December [1] - The price hikes will affect both packaging paper and corrugated paper, with packaging paper seeing a moderate increase of around 50 CNY per ton, while cultural paper types, such as copy paper and double offset paper, will see a significant increase of 200 CNY per ton [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to a report from Industrial Securities, the paper industry faced pressure on both revenue and profit in Q3, remaining at low levels [1] - Q4 is expected to be a traditional peak demand season, with various paper types issuing price increase notices, which are anticipated to be partially or fully realized [1] - The cost side is also seeing upward trends in waste paper and pulp prices, suggesting a potential improvement in industry conditions, with recommendations to focus on leading companies like Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [1]

Price Adjustment - Major paper companies such as Shanying, Jiu Long, APP, and Asia Pacific Forest have announced price increases for their products, effective from late November to early December. The price increase for packaging paper is around 50 yuan per ton, while cultural paper prices have risen by 200 yuan per ton [1] Industry Overview - As of November 26, there are 229,200 existing paper-related enterprises in China. The annual registration of paper-related companies has remained between 17,000 and 23,000 over the past decade, with a peak of 22,200 registrations in 2023. For 2024, a total of 18,600 registrations are expected, with 15,700 already registered this year [4] - The majority of paper-related enterprises are established companies, with 36.88% having been in operation for over 10 years. Companies established between 5-10 years and 1-3 years account for 28.18% and 14.69%, respectively [6] Capital Structure - Most paper-related enterprises are lightweight in terms of registered capital, with over half (54.54%) having a registered capital of less than 1 million yuan. Additionally, 22.18% have registered capital between 1 million and 2 million yuan, while only 1.33% have registered capital of 50 million yuan or more [9]