Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the paper industry [4]. Core Insights - In the short term, the report anticipates an increase in pulp costs and prices due to overseas supply shocks and changes in the supply-demand dynamics in the European and American markets. In the long term, the cost of domestic pulp is expected to decrease due to changes in the pulp structure, benefiting leading integrated pulp and paper manufacturers with upstream forest resources and green energy [2][4]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that leading integrated pulp and paper manufacturers, such as Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., Wuzhou Special Paper, Bohui Paper, Shanying International, and Nine Dragons Paper, are expected to benefit from the full industry chain resource layout and operational advantages [7]. Domestic Pulp Prices and Global Supply-Demand - Domestic pulp prices are closely linked to overseas markets, with global supply and demand primarily driving domestic pulp prices. In 2024, domestic consumption of broadleaf pulp, softwood pulp, chemical pulp, and unbleached pulp is projected to be 2,353, 826, 656, and 95 thousand tons, respectively [9][11]. Supply Shocks and Price Impact - Supply shocks have significantly impacted short-term pulp prices, with an average of approximately 2 million tons of capacity permanently shut down annually since 2017. The report notes that supply disruptions are influenced by market factors, strikes, natural disasters, and equipment failures [76][79]. Long-term Cost Structure Changes - Changes in the pulp structure are expected to lower the long-term cost base in China. The report highlights that the price gap between softwood and broadleaf pulp has widened, with broadleaf pulp's demand share increasing by 10 percentage points to 74% [4][103]. Cost Curve Changes and Pricing - The cost curve is primarily determined by wood costs, with logistics and energy costs also playing significant roles. The report indicates that logistics costs account for 10-20% and energy costs for 15-20% of total costs, with leading pulp manufacturers optimizing costs through strategic location layouts [5][29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector: The international raw sugar market is under pressure and may continue to fluctuate within a range. The domestic sugar market has a supply - demand gap, and the spot price is firm. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Paper pulp fundamentals change little, but may be driven by market sentiment. The global cotton market has a slight inventory build - up, and the domestic cotton market is in a game between supply tightening expectations and weak downstream consumption. The price increase is expected to slow down [3][4][6]. - Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector: Apple futures prices continue to oscillate at a high level, supported by overall commodity sentiment, the influence of the jujube market, and its own fundamentals. Jujube futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather during the fruit - setting period in the producing areas [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures** - Apple 2510: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The consumption is average, and the initial production estimate for the new season is better than before, putting pressure on the overall futures price. Support range is 7300 - 7350, and pressure range is 7900 - 8000 [17]. - Jujube 2601: Hold long positions. The overall commodity sentiment is strong, and in the third quarter, jujubes enter the production - forming period, and the price is likely to rise due to weather concerns. Support range is 10200 - 10400, and pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [17]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2509: Short - term band trading. Raw sugar has rebounded, the domestic spot price is firm, but import pressure restricts the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. Support range is 5750 - 5770, and pressure range is 5850 - 5870 [17]. - Pulp 2507: Temporarily wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, the finished paper price is weak, overseas prices are lowered, and the domestic re - inflation trading expectation is positive for pulp. Support range is 5000 - 5100, and pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [17]. - Cotton 2509: Hold long positions cautiously. The previous negative factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices affect the market. Support range is 13200 - 13300, and pressure range is 14400 - 14500 [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamentals**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 3.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of July 16, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 tons. As of July 17, it was 73.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.03 tons. The estimated national apple production is 3659.04 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.03%, but according to another estimate, the 2025 - 2026 production season shows a slight increase [18]. - **Spot Market**: In the Shandong production area, the mainstream transaction price is stable. In the northwest production area, early - maturing varieties are on the market, and the price is high [19]. - **Jujube Market**: As of July 18, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly. Affected by the rising futures price, the spot price in each sales area increased slightly. The market is in the off - season, and the terminal demand is limited. Attention should be paid to the new - season production in the producing areas [20]. - **Sugar Market**: Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of July 2025 increased by 9.78% year - on - year. As of Tuesday morning, the spot price of Guangxi sugar - making enterprises decreased to 6010 - 6040 yuan/ton [22]. - **Pulp Market**: The demand is weak, the supplier's quotation is firm, the port inventory is high, and the downstream paper - making market is in the off - season. Arauco lowered the price of its Uruguayan factory's bleached broadleaf pulp by 10 dollars/ton to 490 dollars/ton [25]. - **Cotton Market**: In June 2025, Pakistan's textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year. China's cotton imports in June 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. As of July 15, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased [26][27]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market Review**: Apple 2510 closed at 7929, up 0.08%; Jujube 2509 closed at 9485, up 1.23%; Sugar 2509 closed at 5823, down 0.27%; Pulp 2509 closed at 5368, up 0.64%; Cotton 2509 closed at 14225, up 0.28% [27]. - **Spot Market Review**: The spot price of apples was 3.90 yuan/jin, down 0.15 yuan month - on - month and 0.25 yuan year - on - year; jujubes were 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year; sugar was 6050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 410 yuan year - on - year; pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 150 yuan year - on - year; cotton was 15549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan month - on - month and 193 yuan year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 10 - 1 spread is 126, unchanged month - on - month and up 41 year - on - year, expected to oscillate repeatedly, recommend waiting and seeing. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is - 1005, down 960 month - on - month and down 670 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, recommend waiting and seeing. - Sugar 9 - 1 spread is 170, up 1 month - on - month and down 83 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, recommend waiting and seeing [46]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujube: 8912 warehouse receipts, down 35 month - on - month and down 2808 year - on - year. - Sugar: 21359 warehouse receipts, down 78 month - on - month and up 5068 year - on - year. - Pulp: 255819 warehouse receipts, down 100 month - on - month and down 250723 year - on - year. - Cotton: 9436 warehouse receipts, down 65 month - on - month and down 2722 year - on - year [75]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references.

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 09 contract was 5,328 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,368 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.75%. [7] - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong market was 5,220 - 6,700 yuan/ton. The low - end price remained stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5,950 yuan/ton. [7] - **International Quotes**: Chile's Arauco announced its July quotes. The Yinxing had no new offers as the previous deals were completed. The net price of Uruguay's hardwood pulp, New Star, was $500/ton. [7] - **Production and Shipment**: In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries was 1.69 million tons, up 4.4% month - on - month and down 8.2% year - on - year. [7] - **Inventory and Consumption**: In June, the European wood pulp inventory increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year; consumption decreased by 9.9% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in June were 3.03 million tons, up 0.4% month - on - month and 16.1% year - on - year. As of July 17, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 1.08% month - on - month, turning from an increase to a decrease. [7] - **Market Trend**: Affected by the off - season atmosphere, the prices of downstream paper products were weak. With limited changes in fundamentals, the pulp market fluctuated and rose slightly in the short term, driven by the commodity market atmosphere. [7] 3. Industry News - On July 22, the annual 150,000 - ton special paper project of Sichuan Hefeng Paper of Taisheng Group was successfully put into operation. The project uses bamboo pulp as the main raw material, focusing on producing 40 - 100 - gram low - gram - weight food packaging paper. After the two paper machines in Sichuan reach full production, they are expected to have a significant impact on the special paper market in the southwest region, with some production capacity sold to the central and eastern coastal areas. [8] 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the total warehouse receipts, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, and prices and spreads of various paper products [25][27][29]

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: July 10, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The pulp futures 09 contract closed at 5106 yuan/ton, up 0.67%. The port de - stocking speed is slow, the supply of the imported wood pulp market is relatively loose, and with the domestic new capacity coming into operation, it will fluctuate in a low - level range [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: The previous settlement price of pulp futures 09 contract was 5072 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5106 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.67% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in Shandong was 5070 - 6700 yuan/ton, with the low - end price stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of Chilean Arauco's Silver Star in Shandong was 5920 - 5950 yuan/ton. The net price of Uruguay's eucalyptus pulp Star was 500 US dollars/ton [7]. - **Supply Data**: In May, the shipment volume of softwood pulp from 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative decrease from January to April was 0.6%. In May, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22% year - on - year. In May, China's pulp imports were 3.02 million tons, up 4.3% month - on - month and 6.9% year - on - year. As of July 3, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 3.11% month - on - month, only the inventory in Qingdao Port decreased [7]. - **Downstream Situation**: The overall market orders of downstream paper mills have not improved significantly, and the prices of finished paper are stable. The port de - stocking speed is slow, and the supply of the imported wood pulp market is relatively loose, along with the domestic new capacity coming into operation [7]. 2. Industry News - **New Capacity in the Living Paper Industry**: From January to June 2025, about 744,000 t/a of modern production capacity was newly put into operation in the industry, a slight increase compared to the same period in 2024 [8]. - **Special Paper Projects**: The 3.6 - million - ton special paper project of Xianhua with a total investment of 3.6 billion yuan is expected to make the company the largest special paper production base in northern China. The 45,000 - ton electronic carrier tape paper project of Xianhua with a total investment of 1 billion yuan has been completed and is in the commissioning stage [8]. 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report presents various graphs including those related to import pulp prices, futures prices, price spreads, inventory, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind,卓创资讯, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][25][27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp price follows certain rules, including the inventory cycle of the US dollar market, the positive and negative feedback in the pulp and paper industry chain, and the linkage and divergence between different pulp types [3][4][5]. - The key to judging the inventory cycle of the US dollar market lies in demand changes. Seasonal demand growth often drives the pulp price to rise rapidly [16][17]. - The positive feedback of the pulp price increase comes from the improvement of the overseas US dollar market demand, and the negative feedback of the decline comes from the weakening of the apparent demand for finished paper [21][22]. - The external quotes of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp generally move in the same direction, and the structural surplus of some pulp types may lead to the failure of the valuation system based on import costs and basis [31][42]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Inventory Cycle of the US Dollar Market - China has a high import - dependence on pulp supply, with softwood pulp almost entirely imported and imported hardwood pulp accounting for over 60% of the total [9]. - The price change of the overseas US dollar market follows the inventory cycle, including passive de - stocking, active stocking, passive stocking, and active de - stocking [10]. - The key to judging the inventory cycle of the US dollar market is demand. Short - term pulp consumption has obvious seasonal characteristics, and long - term demand shows a moderate growth trend [16]. - Seasonal demand growth often leads to the pulp price rising rapidly, and the rapid increase in pulp external quotes in the past 5 years mainly occurred during China's consumption peak seasons [17]. 2. Positive and Negative Feedback in the Pulp and Paper Industry Chain - The positive feedback of the pulp price increase starts from the improvement of pulp consumption, which drives the improvement of the US dollar market demand and the increase of quotes, forming a positive feedback loop among the US dollar market, domestic pulp futures prices, and finished paper prices [21]. - The negative feedback of the decline starts from the weakening of the apparent demand for finished paper, leading to a cycle of falling paper and pulp prices. In recent years, the price and profit of paper have been more severely affected than those of pulp [22]. - In the feedback process, domestic pulp futures react to demand changes in advance, and the peak - to - decline of finished paper production can be regarded as the starting point of the futures price decline [23][26]. - After 2023, although the production of domestic downstream finished paper increased, the high point of the futures price decreased, which was restricted by factors such as the overseas energy crisis, new device production, and unstable quality of some delivery products [30]. 3. Linkage and Divergence between Pulp Types - The external quotes of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp generally move in the same direction, and a single project's production will affect the overall pulp price. Since 2014, the correlation between the external quotes of Star and Silver Star has been 0.86 [31]. - The external softwood - hardwood price difference shows a wave - like upward trend, driven by project production, and this drives downstream formula replacement and has a negative impact on the futures price [35][40]. - In the process of the softwood - hardwood price difference widening, adding more hardwood pulp to raw materials is a more economical choice. In the long - term, the proportion of softwood pulp in the formula of downstream finished paper enterprises has been decreasing [40]. - The structural surplus of some pulp types may lead to the futures price being priced closer to the lowest - priced delivery product, and the valuation system based on import costs and basis may fail [42]. - The price difference between different softwood pulps has widened, and the futures pricing anchor has shifted to Russian softwood pulp. The return of the pricing anchor depends on factors such as the lifting of sanctions on Russia, upstream maintenance, and improvement of pulp quality [44][46].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年5月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 行业资讯 资料来源：隆众资讯、中纸网 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 1. 【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年5月8日，中国纸浆常熟港库存42.8万吨，较上周期下降2万吨，环比下降4%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2. 【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年5月8日，中国纸浆青岛港库存131.8万吨，较上周下降3.7万吨，环比下降3%。本周期青岛港库存周期内呈现去库的走势。 3. 【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年5月8日，中国纸浆高栏港库存17.2万吨，较上周上涨0.9万吨，环比上涨6%。本周期高栏港库存呈现累库的趋势。 4. 【中国纸浆主流港口样本库存周数据统计】截止2025年5月8日，中国纸浆主流港口样本库存量：203.5万吨，较上期去库6.4万吨，环比下降3.0%，库存量在本周期呈现 去库的趋 ...

Core Insights - The global pulp market is experiencing changes in supply, inventory, and pricing dynamics, with a notable increase in import volumes and a decrease in inventory levels [1] Supply and Import Dynamics - In January 2024, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from the world's 20 major producing countries increased by 6.2% year-on-year, with softwood pulp rising by 5.2% and hardwood pulp by 6.9% [1] - Domestic pulp imports totaled 6.39 million tons in January-February 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.1% [1] Inventory Levels - As of March 21, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.046 million tons, a decrease of 99,000 tons from the previous week [1] - Domestic futures inventory stood at 374,904 tons, down by 19,083 tons week-on-week [1] - In Europe, the inventory of bleached softwood pulp was 247,700 tons in January 2025, with a month-on-month decrease of 1,900 tons and a year-on-year increase of 13,900 tons [1] Pricing Trends - Arauco announced price increases for softwood pulp by $10/ton to $825/ton and hardwood pulp by $20/ton to $610/ton in March 2025 [1] - Current spot prices for softwood pulp in Shandong are at 6,530 RMB/ton, while hardwood pulp is priced at 4,680 RMB/ton [1] - The pulp basis is at 694 RMB, down by 18 from the previous week, indicating a stabilization at lower levels [1] Market Outlook - The downstream paper industry maintains high production levels, but companies are facing weakened operational conditions and declining profitability [1] - Future market conditions are expected to be influenced by macroeconomic policies, with potential price stabilization opportunities due to overseas price support and positive macro expectations [1] - Monitoring of market consumption and macroeconomic risks is essential for future assessments [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Pulp & Paper Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Pulp & Paper Industry** and discusses key themes for **2025** [1][2]. Core Themes and Insights 1. **Pulp Price Volatility**: Pulp prices experienced a **30% change** from peak to trough in **2024**, with a short **6-month cycle** expected to continue into **2025** [1]. 2. **Demand Normalization**: Following a strong **2023**, demand patterns are expected to normalize in **2025**, with **China** leading growth and an incremental demand growth of **1.2 million tons** primarily driven by hardwood demand [2][3]. 3. **Oversupply Forecast**: The market is projected to be oversupplied by **800,000 tons** in **2025** [2]. 4. **Utilization Rates**: The utilization rate for hardwood is expected to decline from **93% to 92%** in **2025** [3]. 5. **Chenming's Impact**: The temporary shutdown of **Chenming** in **China** is a significant factor affecting pulp prices, with a potential restart of production being closely monitored [18][19]. 6. **Growing Capacity in China**: An additional **5 million tons per annum (mtpa)** of hardwood pulp is expected to enter the market in **2025-26**, contributing to increased domestic production [23][24]. 7. **LatAm Expansion**: Latin America is seeing a resurgence in pulp capacity expansion, with **15 mtpa** growth over the last decade and another **13 mtpa** planned by the end of the decade [10][12]. 8. **European and Canadian Costs**: Pulp production costs in **Europe** and **Canada** are expected to remain elevated due to inflationary pressures, with North America experiencing a **40%** increase since the pandemic [36][37]. 9. **China's Virgin-Paper Oversupply**: China's paper utilization has been declining, averaging **66% in 2023** and **60% in 2024**, indicating ongoing oversupply issues [43][44]. 10. **Softwood vs. Hardwood Price Spreads**: The price spread between softwood and hardwood is expected to remain elevated, ranging from **$50 to $250 per ton** due to supply dynamics [66][67]. Additional Important Insights - **FX Impact**: Foreign exchange volatility is highlighted as a critical factor for pulp producers, affecting cash costs and pricing power [75][76]. - **Integration Trends**: There is a continuing trend of pulp-paper integration in **China**, reducing dependency on imported market pulp [49][50]. - **European Demand Decline**: European pulp demand has been in structural decline since **2018**, with a **CAGR of -5%** expected to persist [58][59]. - **Investment Considerations**: Investors are advised to monitor woodchip availability and pricing as proxies for domestic pulp production and profitability [25][54]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the pulp and paper industry.