Group 1 - Codelco has removed three senior executives linked to the El Teniente division following an internal audit that revealed serious breaches of duty related to a prior accident [1][2] - The internal audit was initiated after a rock explosion in July 2023, which highlighted inconsistencies in the company's reports to the mining regulator Sernageomin [2][5] - The executives removed include Chief Operations Officer Mauricio Barraza, El Teniente head Claudio Sougarret, and projects manager Rodrigo Andrades, indicating significant leadership changes at the company [2][3] Group 2 - Codelco's board has identified governance weaknesses at El Teniente and approved a "radical" reorganization to enhance senior executive involvement in daily operations [5] - The company plans to implement unalterable digital signatures on technical reports to improve accountability, although it did not confirm if previous executives had altered signatures [5][6] - Codelco will provide information to Chile's public prosecutor's office and initiate further internal audits as part of its response to the findings [6] Group 3 - The collapse at El Teniente occurred during an expansion project aimed at increasing output, which has now been complicated by ongoing production challenges [7] - Sougarret indicated that production at El Teniente, once Codelco's most productive mine, is expected to remain depressed for the next five years, with an estimated output of around 301,000 metric tons of copper per year during this period [7]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing slight upward movement, but overall momentum is weak due to increasing global inventories and seasonal demand slowdown in China [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Shanghai copper prices rose by 0.39% amid a narrow trading range [1] - The market sentiment is generally positive, influenced by stronger surrounding metals [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm payrolls exceeded market expectations, and the unemployment rate continues to decline, reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates [1] - The U.S. dollar index has stabilized as a result of these employment data [1] Group 3: Inventory Trends - Global visible copper inventories are on the rise, with LME copper stocks increasing to over 190,000 tons, the highest level in nearly nine months [1] - Domestic copper inventories are also accumulating, particularly as the market enters a traditional demand lull with downstream sectors starting to take holidays [1] Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Codelco's Teniente mine is expected to maintain low production levels due to a collapse incident, contributing to a slower growth rate in global refined copper supply [1] - Despite the seasonal accumulation of domestic inventories slowing down, the overall supply-demand balance suggests that copper prices will likely remain in a high-level consolidation phase [1]

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260212 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 1 月非农超预期，A 股延续缩量修复 海外方面，美国 1 月非农新增 13 万，显著高于预期的 7 万，创去年 4 月以来新高；失 业率降至 4.3%，时薪环比 0.4%，均强于预期，显示 1 月就业仍具韧性。与此同时，年度基 准修正力度较大：截至 2025 年 3 月的 12 个月非农就业总规模下调 86.2 万，经修正后，2025 年全年新增仅 18.1 万，远低于此前公布的 58.4 万，目前就业市场呈现"单月偏强"与"中 期动能放缓"的分化，后续仍待数据验证。数据发布后，市场降息预期有所延后，美股高开 低走，美元指数震荡上行，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.17%，金银铜延续震荡修复，油价上涨约 1%。今日关注最新初请失业金人数。 国内方面，1 月 CPI 同比录得 0.2%，弱于预期 0.4%，核心 CPI 回落至 0.8%，春节错月 推高上年同期基数，形成同比回落，其中猪肉、能源、旅游服务价格较为疲软；PPI 同比录 得-1.4%， ...

在智利法院败诉后，天齐锂业宣布出售 SQM 部分持股，主动调整资本结构，为下一个锂业周期做准备 ▶ 拥有世界最大锂盐滩的SQM，在该国政策下逐步被收归国有， 天齐锂业向法院申诉未果 ▶ 公司同时宣布配股及发行可转换债券，集资约58亿港元 Image Key takeaways: 公司估算，目前SQM的1.25%股权价值约2.06亿美元。若按天齐当年入股成本比例计算，该部分原始投资额约2.16亿美元，意味可能出 现轻微账面损失。公司指，此举对盘活公司存量资产，提高公司资产流动性等将起到积极作用。 大规模配股集资 时间拉回2018年， 天齐锂业 股份有限公司（9696.HK; 002466.SZ）斥资约41亿美元买入智利化工矿业公司Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A.（SQM）近24%股权时，市场普遍认为，这是一场对全球锂资源上游的关键押注。 智利锂开采量占全球三成，是世界第二大，其中，SQM在全球锂化学品市占率超过两成。全球每五辆电动车，就有一辆的碳酸锂来自 他们。旗下拥有的阿塔卡马盐滩（Salar de Atacama）锂矿场，是全世界最大的锂盐滩，可开采面积达820 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Short - term High - level Consolidation, Prudent Operation Before the Festival [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term bullish sentiment has weakened, and the market is volatile due to capital and sentiment. However, the main bullish logic remains unchanged, and the long - term upward trend continues. Near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to control positions and operate prudently [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's nomination of Warsh as the Fed Chairman led the market to pre - trade Warsh's hawkish policies. The sell - off in US software stocks spread to the entire technology sector, and multiple factors intensified the decline in precious metals and non - ferrous metals [6] - **Copper Ore**: Trump plans to invest $12 billion in key mineral reserves. China aims to improve the copper resource reserve system. The strike at Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile ended, and normal production is expected to resume [6] - **Scrap Copper**: Domestic policies related to recycled copper have tightened, and some supply enterprises will be on holiday during the Spring Festival, so the supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is expected to decline [6] - **Refined Copper**: In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a slight increase. SMM expects a decline in February. As of February 5, domestic mainstream copper inventories increased, while bonded - area inventories decreased. LME inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [6] - **Consumption**: After the copper price correction, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, but it is expected to weaken next week as the Spring Festival approaches [6] - **Spread and Ratio**: LME inventories are continuously accumulating, the domestic import window is periodically opened, and the spread and premium are expected to remain in a discount state [6] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Price Trends - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai Copper Main Contract and LME 3 - Month Copper, and lists important events affecting copper prices such as processing fee drops, trade investigations, and production plan adjustments from 2025 - 2026 [8][9] 3.3 Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking - **Copper Concentrate Market**: On February 6, the SMM imported copper concentrate index decreased. In 2025, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The production of major copper - producing countries such as Peru and Chile showed different trends [19][25][28] - **Scrap Copper Market**: As of this Friday, the refined - scrap spread is 3,127 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rods increased slightly. In 2025, the supply of domestic scrap copper increased, and the import of scrap copper also showed an upward trend [34][39] - **Blister Copper Market**: In October 2025, blister copper production increased year - on - year. The import of anode copper decreased in 2025. The average processing fee for southern blister copper increased this week [41][44] - **Domestic Copper Supply**: In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased slightly. SMM expects a decline in February. In 2025, the import of refined copper decreased, and the export increased [46][49] - **Copper Products Operating Rate**: The overall copper products operating rate showed a mixed trend. Some industries' operating rates increased due to pre - holiday stocking and price corrections, while others are expected to decline in February [51][60][66] - **Downstream Consumption**: - **Air - conditioning Consumption**: In December 2025, China's household air - conditioning market did not meet expectations. The production and sales of air - conditioners decreased year - on - year. The production schedule for 2026 shows different trends in domestic and export sales [71] - **Automobile Consumption**: In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased. It is predicted that the total automobile sales in 2026 will increase slightly, and new - energy vehicle sales are expected to grow by 15.2% [75] - **Grid Investment**: In 2025, China's grid investment increased year - on - year, while the power source project investment decreased. The State Grid's fixed - asset investment during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan [78] - **Real Estate Market**: In 2025, the national commercial housing sales area and housing completion area decreased year - on - year [83] - **Overseas Data**: The report shows the data of US new housing sales, new private residential starts, automobile sales, and European passenger car registrations [86] - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: In 2025, China's new photovoltaic and wind power installations increased year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts different growth trends for future photovoltaic installations [89] - **Global New - energy Vehicle Sales**: In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased. In December, global new - energy vehicle sales increased year - on - year, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased slightly [91][95] 3.4 Industry News and Macroeconomic Data - Trump nominated Warsh as the Fed Chairman, and the US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill. Southern Copper Corp. expects a decline in copper production in the next two years. The US ISM manufacturing PMI index rose significantly in January, and there are also other important industry and macro news [96]

消息面上，天齐锂业公布，有关重要参股公司SQM与Codelco签署合伙协议及提起诉讼，收到智利最高 法院就诉讼作出判决书，维持智利法院裁决，该裁决驳回其提交的上诉请求，该判决为诉讼终审判决。 该集团指，上诉被驳回不改变有关减值测试相关假设，因此预计该诉讼判决暂不会对当期利润产生重大 影响。该集团将保留后续一切可能的维护公司权利途径，不排除采取进一步行动。 天齐锂业（002466）(09696)盘中跌超5%，截至发稿，跌3.86%，报54.8港元，成交额2.74亿港元。 该集团指，SQM披露子公司与Codelco的子公司合并先决条件解决，使合伙协议所涉交易生效。该集团 指，合伙协议风险方面，包括SQM丧失其核心锂业务控制权、SQM锂业务收益受到影响进而影响集团 投资回报和经济利益及集团参与SQM公司治理的权益受到影响。 ...

消息面上，天齐锂业公布，有关重要参股公司SQM与Codelco签署合伙协议及提起诉讼，收到智利最高 法院就诉讼作出判决书，维持智利法院裁决，该裁决驳回其提交的上诉请求，该判决为诉讼终审判决。 该集团指，上诉被驳回不改变有关减值测试相关假设，因此预计该诉讼判决暂不会对当期利润产生重大 影响。该集团将保留后续一切可能的维护公司权利途径，不排除采取进一步行动。 智通财经APP获悉，天齐锂业(09696)盘中跌超5%，截至发稿，跌3.86%，报54.8港元，成交额2.74亿港 元。 该集团指，SQM披露子公司与Codelco的子公司合并先决条件解决，使合伙协议所涉交易生效。该集团 指，合伙协议风险方面，包括SQM丧失其核心锂业务控制权、SQM锂业务收益受到影响进而影响集团 投资回报和经济利益及集团参与SQM公司治理的权益受到影响。 ...

Core Insights - The copper industry is experiencing a significant shift away from traditional cyclical patterns, with exploration and discovery of new deposits declining over decades [1][2] - Major copper discoveries are becoming rarer and smaller, with the industry relying on existing deposits rather than finding new significant sources [2][4] - The structural issues in the copper supply chain are compounded by various disruptions, leading to fragile supply conditions [5][7] Industry Trends - Exploration budgets have increased post-2020, but the results have not improved, indicating a stagnation in finding new, impactful copper deposits [2][4] - Companies are focusing on expanding existing operations rather than exploring new sites, which leads to increased costs and declining ore grades [3][4] - Codelco, the largest copper producer, exemplifies the trend of needing substantial capital expenditures just to maintain current production levels [4] Supply Chain Challenges - In 2025, approximately 550,000 tons of copper production are expected to be lost due to various disruptions, including labor disputes and geotechnical issues [5] - The copper supply chain is fragile, with little margin for error, as disruptions are not driven by demand but by operational challenges [5][7] - Regulatory hurdles are significant, with many promising deposits still not in production due to lengthy approval processes [7] Price Dynamics - The relationship between copper and silver supply is critical, as delays in copper projects can adversely affect silver production, which often comes as a byproduct [7][8] - The spot price of silver has increased by over 270% in the last year, reflecting the interconnected challenges within the metals market [8] - The Global X Copper Miners ETF has seen a year-to-date increase of 24.75%, indicating market interest despite underlying supply issues [9]

银河期货研究所 2026 年 1 月 28 日 0 / 49 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：压力有所减轻 4 | | --- | | 国债期货：股债跷跷板 5 | | 蛋白粕：供应仍有压力 | 盘面走势偏强 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：外盘走势现分歧，郑糖底部震荡 6 | | | 油脂板块：油脂有所分化 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：北港现货稳定，盘面偏弱震荡 8 | | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 | 现货震荡运行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：临近节前备货，蛋价有所上涨 10 | | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | | 棉花-棉纱：整体变化不大 | 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求边际转弱，钢价延续震荡 14 | | --- | | 双焦：基本面乏善可陈，关注资金扰动 14 | | 铁矿：终端需求低位，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：估值偏低存在修复需求，短期震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：特朗普"暗示"弱美元，金银维持强势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：美元信任危机 贵 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Copper Mining and Production - **Key Players**: Major copper mining countries include Chile (23%), Peru (12%), DRC (14%), China (8%), and the US (6%) [3][76]. The largest copper companies globally in 2025 are Codelco, BHP, and Freeport, accounting for approximately 6%, 6%, and 4% of the market respectively [3][76]. Supply Dynamics - **Global Production**: In 2025, global refined copper production was approximately 28 million tons (mt), consisting of about 23mt from mine production and 5mt from secondary supply [3]. Mine production is identified as the structural constraint to copper production rather than smelting or refining [3]. - **Fragmentation**: The copper mining sector is relatively fragmented with over 400 operational copper mines, where the top 10 miners account for around 40% of the total market [3]. - **Future Supply Growth**: Supply growth is expected to remain close to zero in 2025, driven by limited new project approvals and declining copper capital expenditures [73]. Forecasted mine supply growth for 2026 is less than 1% [73]. Demand Dynamics - **Demand Breakdown**: China is the largest consumer of copper, accounting for approximately 50% of total demand, followed by Europe (15%) and North America (9%) [4][41]. Key end-use sectors include electrical networks (25%), construction (25%), and automotive [4][41]. - **Growth Drivers**: Future demand growth is expected to be driven by energy transition applications, including renewable power generation and automotive electrification (EVs) [4][52]. Over the past 30 years, copper demand has grown at an average rate of 2.5% per annum [4]. Energy Transition Impact - **Role in Energy Transition**: Copper is critical for electrification and is a key material in solar panels, wind turbines, and energy storage systems [52]. The demand from energy transition applications is projected to account for approximately 40% of global copper demand by 2025 [53]. - **Forecasts**: The report estimates that demand from electric vehicles (1.8mt) and renewables (2.9mt) will account for about 14% of global demand in 2025 [53]. Supply Disruptions - **Historical Disruptions**: Copper mine supply has historically struggled to meet guidance, with disruptions remaining elevated at over 5% in 2025 due to issues at major mines [90]. Disruptions have included strikes, technical challenges, and adverse weather conditions [90]. Project Pipeline and Future Outlook - **Project Development**: The number of large 'Tier 1' copper mines is decreasing, but there is a strong incentive to invest in new projects due to the increasing demand for copper [96]. The report anticipates more mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and an acceleration in project development to fill the project pipeline [100]. - **Incentive Price**: The report suggests that an incentive price of $5.0/lb is necessary to generate acceptable returns on new projects, reflecting a 15-20% increase in the incentive price curve over the last two years [104]. Conclusion - The copper industry is facing a complex landscape characterized by strong demand driven by energy transition, constrained supply growth, and significant project development challenges. The interplay between these factors will shape the future dynamics of the copper market.