证券研究报告 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 板块最新观点 整车主线周报： 本周商用载货车表现较好，长城发布业绩预告 2 （ ◼ 乘用车观点更新：短期来看，行业补贴政策已落地，看好观望需求转化下26Q1乘用车景气度复苏，坚定看好乘 用车板块。全年维度来看：国内选抗波动+出口选确定性。国内关注高端电动化赛道中对政策扰动不敏感的个股 江淮汽车，以及高端化有望放量的吉利汽车/长城汽车/北汽蓝谷/赛力斯/理想等；出口主线优先配置海外体系 成熟、执行能力已验证的头部车企，优选比亚迪/长城汽车/奇瑞汽车，以及零跑/小鹏/上汽集团/长安汽车等。 ◼ 重卡观点更新：回顾2025：2025年，25年全年批发114.4万，同比+26.8%，内销79.9万，同比+32.8%，出 口34.1万，同比+17.2%，全年内销及出口超市场年初预期。25年初国四及以下营运重卡保有量69万辆，估算 25年底淘汰至45-50万辆，25年全年淘汰21万辆，25年全年内销政策拉动+自然需求回升共振。展望2026： ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the accelerated transition of China's heavy truck market towards electrification, driven by the "dual carbon" goals and green transformation of road freight by 2025 [1][2]. - In 2025, cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks in China are projected to reach 231,100 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 182% [1]. - By December 2025, the terminal sales of new energy heavy trucks are expected to surge to 45,300 units, with a monthly penetration rate exceeding 50%, reaching 53.89%, setting a new industry record [1]. Group 2 - The development of new energy heavy trucks in China can be divided into two phases: the initial phase from 2021 to 2023, with penetration rates of 0.7%, 4.7%, and 5%, and a rapid development phase starting in 2024, with projected penetration rates of 12.9% and 28.9% [2]. - The market share structure of power types is undergoing a fundamental shift, with fuel heavy trucks' share dropping from 91% in 2020 to 46% by 2025, while new energy heavy trucks' share rises from nearly zero to 29% [2]. - By 2025, the gas heavy truck market share is expected to reach 25%, indicating that both new energy and gas heavy trucks will collectively account for a significant portion of the market [2]. Group 3 - Companies in the industry are accelerating their layout to seize opportunities in the electrification of heavy trucks, as evidenced by the strategic cooperation agreement between Kandi Technologies Group and CATL to focus on the mass production of heavy truck battery swap stations [3]. - The heavy truck industry is currently in a high-growth phase driven by both policy support and technological innovation, with companies aiming to enhance product competitiveness and market responsiveness [3]. - The unique ecological development path of the new energy heavy truck market involves interlinked elements of "people-vehicle-cargo-money-energy," with battery companies playing a crucial role beyond being mere component suppliers [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese heavy truck market is accelerating its transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs) by 2025, with significant growth in sales and market penetration rates for new energy heavy trucks [1][2] - By December 2025, the cumulative sales of new energy heavy trucks in China are expected to reach 231,100 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 182% [1] - The market penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks is projected to exceed 50%, reaching 53.89% in December 2025, marking a historic milestone for the industry [1] Group 2 - The development of new energy heavy trucks in China can be divided into two phases: the initial phase from 2021 to 2023, and the rapid development phase starting in 2024, with penetration rates expected to rise from 5% in 2023 to 28.9% in 2024 [2] - The market share of fuel heavy trucks is expected to decline from 91% in 2020 to 46% by 2025, while the share of new energy heavy trucks will increase from nearly zero to 29% [2] - The transition to new energy heavy trucks signifies a shift from policy-driven growth to a dual-driven model of policy and market demand, indicating a new phase in the market [2] Group 3 - Companies in the industry are rapidly positioning themselves to capitalize on the electrification of heavy trucks, as evidenced by a strategic partnership between Kandi Technologies Group and CATL to focus on the mass production of heavy truck battery swap stations [3] - The heavy truck industry is currently experiencing a high-growth phase driven by both policy support and technological innovation, with companies aiming to enhance product competitiveness and market responsiveness [3] - The ecosystem of the new energy heavy truck market is characterized by interlinked elements such as people, vehicles, goods, finance, and energy, with battery manufacturers playing a crucial role in value creation [4]

1月30日，60辆纯电动公交车动力电池采购及更换项目中标候选人公示（暨中标结果公示）发布。第一中标候选人为厦门力景新能源科 技有限公司，中标价：更换动力电池493.2万元，旧动力电池回收120元/KWh。 60辆纯电动公交车动力电池采购及更换项目中标候选 果公示) 本招标项目于2026年_1月30日9时30分在福建省海航建设管理有限公司开标,相 要求,已由评标委员会评审完毕,现将评标结果公示如下: 招标人:漳州市闽运公共交通有限公司 地 址:福建省漳州市龙文区迎宾大道 327号 联系人:王先生 联系电话: 13860895931 招标代理机构:福建省海航建设管理有限公司 地 址:福州市马尾区镇冰路8号海运集团大楼14层 联系人:黄工 电 话:18859122959 邮 箱:fihhglgs@163.com 时间:2026年1月30日 (1) 20260130【集团网站】60辆纯电动公交车新动力电池采购项目中标候选人( ( 医中标结果公示) (1),pdfimd5926458EA869E8125CDBD220G2F75D009) 元 以上结果现予以公示,本项目推荐一名中标候选人,按《福建省招标公告和公示信息发布 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dongfeng Import and Export Company achieved a strong start in January 2026, marking a significant milestone in its growth journey, reflecting the dedication of its workforce [1]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In January 2026, the company exported a total of 20,132 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 271% [7]. - Passenger car exports reached 13,878 units, showing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 344% [8]. - Commercial vehicle exports totaled 6,254 units, with a year-on-year increase of 172% [10].

National Policies - The implementation of the National IV truck replacement policy will continue into 2026, boosting market confidence [6] - The Ministry of Transport and the State Taxation Administration issued the "Management Measures for Network Freight Carrier Platforms," which includes requirements for licensing, safety management, and service consistency [2] - A comprehensive transportation safety production and service guarantee plan for the 2026 Spring Festival was released, emphasizing the enhancement of charging services for new energy vehicles [5] Local Policies - Hebei plans to establish 1,200 "super-fast combined" charging stations by 2027 to enhance electric vehicle charging infrastructure [12] - Shandong supports the commercial application of intelligent connected vehicles, allowing for extensive testing and market operations [14] - Sichuan is implementing a data-driven approach to enhance safety risk management for passenger and hazardous goods transport [15] - Liaoning has extended and optimized differentiated charging policies for designated vehicles, offering discounts for certain transport vehicles [17] - Henan is enhancing regulation of freight platforms and encouraging public reporting of illegal "overweight" vehicles [18][21] - Inner Mongolia is promoting transparency in highway rescue service charges to protect the rights of both the rescued and the rescuers [22] - Beijing will transition to electronic invoices for tolls starting February 2026, improving efficiency and public service [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry, focusing on new energy vehicles and related technologies [1]. Core Insights - The automotive market is currently experiencing a cautious atmosphere, with stakeholders observing the recovery of terminal demand and the impact of policies and costs on profitability. Short-term fluctuations in the non-ferrous sector are affecting pricing negotiations in the upstream and midstream segments. The report suggests monitoring factors that could lead to a rebound in vehicle sales in Q1, including retail and export performance, while remaining optimistic about the automotive parts sector, particularly in areas like intelligent driving, liquid cooling, and robotics [1][3]. Data Tracking - In late January, the industry discount rate decreased to 9.5%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points but a month-on-month decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The average discount amount was 21,541 yuan, up by 1,294 yuan year-on-year but down by 718 yuan month-on-month [3]. - December saw a decline in wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles, with wholesale sales at 2.85 million units, down 8.7% year-on-year and 6.3% month-on-month. Retail sales of domestic passenger vehicles were 2.28 million units, down 16.8% year-on-year but up 13.7% month-on-month [3]. - The report highlights specific automotive companies to watch, including Geely, JAC Motors, and BYD, with Geely being favored due to its low valuation and expected better-than-expected performance in domestic sales [5]. Industry News - In January, the China Passenger Car Association reported that the automotive industry generated revenues of 1,117.96 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, while costs rose by 8.1% to 984.98 billion yuan, resulting in a profit of 46.1 billion yuan, up 0.6% [31]. - The report notes significant developments in the electric vehicle sector, including a partnership between a Vietnamese manufacturer and BYD to establish a commercial electric vehicle battery factory, and the launch of new electric models by various companies [31][32]. - The report also mentions the implementation of new national standards for automotive steering systems and automatic emergency braking systems, which are expected to enhance safety and technology in the industry [31][32].

有券商机构指出，1月制造业PMI（采购经理指数）再度回落到荣枯线以下，反映出有效需求仍不足。A 股流动性支撑延续，临近2026年春节长假，市场交投活跃度依然处于较高水平，短期市场或仍以结构性 震荡为主。 每经记者：刘明涛每经编辑：彭水萍 上周，随着热门板块出现高位震荡，A股主要股指迎来调整，均出现小幅回落，每经品牌100指数在蓝 筹股带动下，周涨幅为0.51%。 有市场人士认为，短期来看，A股市场在交投活跃支撑下，或将延续盘整过程。 "中字头"个股表现出色 上周，A股市场主要指数波动加剧，从周K线来看，截至1月30日收盘，上证指数下跌0.44%，以4117.95 点报收；深证成指下跌1.62%，以14205.89点报收；创业板指和科创50指数周跌幅分别达到0.09%和 2.85%，每经品牌100指数实现小幅反弹，周涨0.51%，以1154.56点报收。 市场热点方面，A股市场板块轮动速度加快，周内半导体、白酒、地产等板块阶段性走高，但行情持续 性仍显不足。经历近期持续上涨后，受国际贵金属价格高位回落影响，上周五有色金属板块大幅回调。 成分股方面，"中字头"个股上周表现出色，中国海油、中国石油以及中国重汽周涨幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market remains cautious, observing the recovery of terminal demand and the impact of policies and costs on profitability, with increased volatility in the non-ferrous sector affecting short-term pricing in the upstream and midstream segments [1] Investment Recommendations - **Complete Vehicles**: Recommended stocks include Geely Automobile, JAC Motors, and BYD. Geely is favored due to its low valuation of over 6 times, with expectations of better-than-expected domestic profitability. JAC's S800 model shows stable order performance, and the company plans to launch 2-3 new models this year [2] - **Auto Parts**: - Robotics sector continues to be a catalyst, with recommendations for Foresight Technology, Minth Group, Top Group, Yinlun Machinery, Haoneng Co., Shuanghuan Transmission, and New Spring Co., with a suggestion to pay attention to Joyson Electronics - AI/Smart Driving is a key area with potential supply order catalysts from policy support and Nvidia's involvement, recommending Horizon Robotics and Hesai Technology, while suggesting to monitor SOTERIA, Black Sesame Technologies, and Pony.ai - Liquid cooling orders are clear, with continued recommendations for Minth Group, Yinlun Machinery, and Lingyun Industrial, and a suggestion to watch Feilong Co. [2] - **Heavy Trucks**: Weichai Power has shown strong performance, reflecting market recognition of its position in AIDC diesel engines and natural gas generators, with continued recommendations. Concerns over short-term shareholder reductions in China National Heavy Duty Truck have dissipated, suggesting a focus on fundamentals [2] Data Tracking - In late January, industry discounts decreased month-on-month, with a discount rate of 9.5%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year and down 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. The discount amount was 21,541 yuan, up 1,294 yuan year-on-year and down 718 yuan month-on-month [3] - December wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles declined year-on-year, with wholesale sales at 2.85 million units, down 8.7% year-on-year and 6.3% month-on-month. Retail sales of domestic passenger vehicles were 2.28 million units, down 16.8% year-on-year but up 13.7% month-on-month [3] Market Performance - The automotive sector saw a decline of 5.12% this week, ranking 28th out of 29 sectors. The overall index performance included a decrease of 0.44% for the Shanghai Composite Index, an increase of 0.08% for the CSI 300, and a decrease of 0.09% for the ChiNext Index. The automotive index's performance included a drop of 5.12% for the automotive sector, 6.70% for parts, 3.64% for passenger vehicles, 1.10% for commercial vehicles, and 3.42% for circulation services [6]

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 汽车 2026 年 02 月 01 日 汽车行业周报（20260126-20260201） 有色波动影响中上游短期议价，继续看好新产 推荐（维持） 业方向 1 月下旬行业折扣环比下降（油车为主）。折扣率 9.5%，同比+0.6PP（1/25），环比-0.1PP （1/10）。折扣金额 21,541 元，同比+1,294 元（1/25），环比-718 元（1/10）。折扣率变 动环比较大的主流品牌：WEY+1.6PP、北京奔驰-1.5PP、上汽通用别克-1.3PP、长安启源 +1.2PP、长安马自达-0.8PP。 12 月乘用车批发、零售销量同比下滑。12 月乘用车批发 285 万辆，同比-8.7%，环比- 6.3%，狭义乘用车批发 283 万辆，同比-8.4%，环比-6.1%；国产乘用车零售 228 万辆， 同比-16.8%，环比+13.7%；乘用车出口销量 64 万辆，同比+50.5%，环比+2.8%；估算库 存变动-7.4 万辆，同比-4 万辆，环比-48 万辆。 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日， 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）121 ...