作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 周五美股涨跌互现，通胀数据降温支撑了市场对美联储降息的预期，科技股仍然面临AI 相关担忧引 发的剧烈波动。截至收盘，道指涨48.95点，涨幅0.10%，报49500.93点，纳指跌0.22%，报22546.67 点，标普500指数涨0.05%，报6836.17点。 本周道指累计下跌1.28%，纳指跌1.49%，标普500指数跌1.45%。 标普500指数本周录得去年11月以来最大单周跌幅，道琼斯工业平均指数也将迎来去年11月以来最深 周度跌幅。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）早盘一度触及 22.40 点高位，突破20的关键心理关 口。 【热门股表现】 2026.02. 14 本文字数：1770，阅读时长大约3分钟 纽约斯巴达资本证券公司首席市场经济学家彼得・卡迪略表示："归根结底，这是一份不错的数据。 它表明我们虽然未达到美联储2%的通胀目标，但通胀并未加速，或许在关税带来的通胀压力方面， 我们开始看到一丝曙光。压力依然存在，但正在缓和。" Osaic首席市场策略师菲尔・布兰卡托表示："对市场和即将上任的美联储主席凯文・沃什来说，这应 是利好消息。这虽只是一个月的数据，但如果趋 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][23] Core Insights - The company's revenue increased by 3% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 27.5 billion yuan, while the Non-GAAP net profit decreased by 11% to 7.07 billion yuan due to investment losses of 1.7 billion yuan [10][11] - The deferred revenue grew by 34% year-on-year, indicating a healthy cash flow status and reflecting changes in the game structure [2][15] - The company continues to expand its global presence, with successful launches of mobile games like "逆水寒" and "燕云十六声," which have attracted over 80 million players globally [2][18] Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2025, the online gaming business generated 21.3 billion yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, while the overall gross margin improved to 64.2%, up 3 percentage points [10][11] - The total operating expense ratio was 34%, with a sales expense ratio of 14%, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase [11] Game Development and AI Impact - The company is focusing on integrating AI tools to enhance creative content, with a shift in the core barriers to entry for commercial games towards integration capabilities [3][18] - Upcoming game releases include "遗忘之海" and "无限大," which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [23] Financial Forecast - The adjusted net profit estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.6 billion, 44.7 billion, and 48 billion yuan respectively, with slight downward adjustments of 5%, 4%, and 0% [23][28]

Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones up 0.10% to 49,500.93 points, the S&P 500 up 0.05% to 6,836.17 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.22% to 22,546.67 points [3] - All three indices recorded weekly declines, with the S&P 500 down 1.4%, the Dow down 1.2%, and the Nasdaq down 2.1% [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the January CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, both below market expectations [3] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2.5% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations [3] - Phil Blancato, Chief Market Strategist at Osaic, indicated that this data could pave the way for interest rate cuts and inflation control if the trend continues [3] Sector Performance - Concerns over AI disruption led to market sell-offs, affecting various sectors including software, real estate, trucking, and financial services [6] - Financial stocks such as Charles Schwab and Morgan Stanley fell by 10.8% and 4.9%, respectively, while software company Workday dropped 11% and commercial real estate firm CBRE fell 16% [6] - The media sector was also impacted, with Disney down approximately 3% and Netflix down 6% [7] Technology Stocks - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Nvidia down 2.21%, Apple down 2.27%, Microsoft down 0.13%, Google down 1.06%, and Amazon down 0.41% [7] - Tesla saw a slight increase of 0.09%, while Oracle rose by 2.34% and Netflix increased by 1.33% [7] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 0.10%, with Alibaba down 1.89%, JD.com down 1.38%, and Pinduoduo up 0.06% [7] - NIO remained flat, while Xpeng rose by 1.36% and Li Auto fell by 1.81% [7]

当地时间2月13日，美国劳工统计局公布的CPI数据显示当前通胀水平较为温和，推动市场对美联储6月降息的预期升温。受此影响，贵金属价格明显走 高。截至当日收盘，美国三大股指涨跌不一，大型科技股整体承压，国际油价小幅上行。 美股收盘涨跌不一 受通胀数据影响，当地时间2月13日，美国股市表现分化。Wind数据显示，截至当日收盘，三大股指涨跌不一，道指上涨0.1%，标普500指数上涨0.05%， 纳指下跌0.22%。 美国劳工统计局当日公布的数据显示，1月CPI环比上涨0.2%、同比上涨回落至2.4%。随着通胀压力边际缓解，根据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具，市 场对美联储6月降息的预期有所增强。 大型科技股整体承压。万得美国科技七巨头指数下跌1.31%。其中，苹果、英伟达跌超2%，Meta、谷歌母公司Alphabet-C跌逾1%，亚马逊、微软小幅下 跌，特斯拉微涨0.09%。 降息预期推动贵金属价格走高 降息预期升温叠加避险需求回升，推动贵金属价格走高。截至北京时间6:03，伦敦金现货价格涨2.41%，报5042.808美元/盎司，盘中最高报5046.261美元/ 盎司；COMEX黄金期货价格涨2.3%，报5062 ...

美国劳工统计局当日公布的数据显示，1月CPI环比上涨0.2%、同比上涨回落至2.4%。随着通胀压力边际缓解，根据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具，市 场对美联储6月降息的预期有所增强。 大型科技股整体承压。美国科技七巨头指数下跌1.31%。其中，苹果、英伟达跌超2%，Meta、谷歌母公司Alphabet-C跌逾1%，亚马逊、微软小幅下跌，特 斯拉微涨0.09%。 中概股走势分化。纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌0.10%，中概科技龙头指数上涨0.14%。个股表现不一，小米集团-ADR、网易涨超2%，腾讯控股-ADR涨超 1%，美团-ADR、拼多多微涨；阿里巴巴跌超2%，京东集团、比亚迪（002594）股份-ADR跌超1%，百度集团跌0.99%。 降息预期推动贵金属价格走高 当地时间2月13日，美国劳工统计局公布的CPI数据显示当前通胀水平较为温和，推动市场对美联储6月降息的预期升温。受此影响，贵金属价格明显走 高。截至当日收盘，美国三大股指涨跌不一，大型科技股整体承压，国际油价小幅上行。 美股收盘涨跌不一 受通胀数据影响，当地时间2月13日，美国股市表现分化。数据显示，截至当日收盘，三大股指涨跌不一，道指上涨0.1%， ...

Group 1 - The Livermore Chinese Concept Stock Index closed down 0.27% at 10,125.69 points on February 14, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Tencent Music led the gains, rising over 4%, followed by Yum China with an increase of more than 3%. In contrast, New Oriental and Alibaba both fell over 2%, while Li Auto, JD.com, and iQIYI saw declines of more than 1% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index (HXC) also experienced a slight decline of 0.1% on the same day [1] Group 2 - Notable movements included Pinduoduo with a minor increase of 0.06%, NetEase rising 2.06%, XPeng up 1.38%, and Bilibili gaining 1.02%. Conversely, Baidu fell by 0.99%, Beike dropped 1.07%, and Huazhu Group decreased by 1.48% [1] - The Livermore Chinese Concept Stock Index had previously experienced a significant decline of 2.64% in the prior trading session, closing at 10,152.05 points. The drop on February 14 was less severe, indicating a shift from a broad decline to a more mixed performance among individual stocks [1]

Market Performance - On February 13, the three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.1%, S&P 500 up 0.05%, and Nasdaq down 0.22% [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones fell 1.23%, S&P 500 dropped 1.39%, and Nasdaq decreased by 2.1% [1] Sector Performance - Most large tech stocks declined, with Apple and Nvidia down over 2%, Facebook and Google down over 1%, while Tesla saw a slight increase of 0.09% [3] - Semiconductor stocks mostly rose, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 0.66%, and notable gains in Applied Materials (over 8%), ARM (over 2%), and Qualcomm (over 1%) [3] - Gold stocks performed strongly, with Coeur Mining up over 7%, Harmony Gold, Kinross Gold, and Pan American Silver up over 6%, and Barrick Gold up over 5% [3] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell 0.10%, with Tencent Music up over 4%, Yum China up over 3%, and Hesai Technology and NetEase up over 2% [3] - Declines were seen in JinkoSolar (down nearly 3%), Canadian Solar, New Oriental, Alibaba (down over 2%), and Li Auto (down nearly 2%) [3] Commodity Prices - Precious metals saw a rebound, with spot gold rising 2.4% to surpass $5040 per ounce, and spot silver increasing by 2.8% to $77.3 per ounce [3] - WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.08% to $62.89 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.34% to $67.75 per barrel [4] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market experienced a collective rebound, with Bitcoin rising over 4% to approach $69,000 per coin, and over 90,000 traders liquidated in the past 24 hours [4][5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, below the market expectation of 2.5%, marking a decrease from 2.7% in December 2025 [6] - The month-over-month CPI, seasonally adjusted, rose by 0.2%, also below the expected 0.3%, indicating a significant cooling of inflation [6] - Following the CPI release, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a rate cut in June surged to 83% from 49.9% [6]

Market Performance - On February 13, the three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.1%, S&P 500 up 0.05%, and Nasdaq down 0.22% [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones fell 1.23%, S&P 500 dropped 1.39%, and Nasdaq decreased by 2.1% [1] Index and Stock Movements - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,500.93, with a gain of 48.95 points [2] - The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 22,546.67, down 50.48 points [2] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6,836.17, up 3.41 points [2] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Apple and Nvidia down over 2%, while Facebook and Google fell over 1% [2] - Semiconductor stocks saw a majority increase, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 0.66% [2] Gold and Precious Metals - Gold stocks performed strongly, with notable increases such as Coeur Mining up over 7% and Harmony Gold up over 6% [2] - Spot gold rose 2.4%, surpassing $5,040 per ounce, while spot silver increased by 2.8%, reaching $77.3 per ounce [3] Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil futures rose 0.08%, closing at $62.89 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.34%, closing at $67.75 per barrel [4] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective rebound, with Bitcoin rising over 4%, nearing $68,847 per coin [5] - Ethereum also increased by 6.93%, reaching $2,055.93 [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a year-over-year increase of 2.4%, lower than the expected 2.5% [5] - The CPI's month-over-month increase was 0.2%, also below the anticipated 0.3%, indicating a significant cooling of inflation [5] - Following the CPI release, the probability of the Federal Reserve implementing a rate cut in June surged to 83% from 49.9% [5]

恐慌指数VIX重回20关口。 *三大股指分化，纳指跌0.22%； 【热门股表现】 *中长期美债收益率大幅回落，2年期美债创四年低位； *美国1月CPI略好于预期，提振降息前景。 周五美股涨跌互现，通胀数据降温支撑了市场对美联储降息的预期，科技股仍然面临AI 相关担忧引发 的剧烈波动。截至收盘，道指涨48.95点，涨幅0.10%，报49500.93点，纳指跌0.22%，报22546.67点，标 普500指数涨0.05%，报6836.17点。 本周道指累计下跌1.28%，纳指跌1.49%，标普500指数跌1.45%。 | 道琼斯工业平均 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 49500.93 | 22546.67 | 6836.17 | | +48.95 +0.10% -50.48 -0.22% +3.41 +0.05% | | | 标普500指数本周录得去年11月以来最大单周跌幅，道琼斯工业平均指数也将迎来去年11月以来最深周 度跌幅。芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数（VIX）早盘一度触及 22.40 点高位，突破20的关键心理关口。 芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME Group） ...

Core Insights - The company reported steady growth in its performance for the year 2025, with significant advancements in AI technology application and commercialization [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2025 reached 112.6 billion yuan, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 37.3 billion yuan [2] - In Q4 2025, the company's single-quarter revenue was 27.5 billion yuan [2] - Annual R&D investment amounted to 17.7 billion yuan, marking the sixth consecutive year exceeding 10 billion yuan [2] Business Operations - Core gaming business generated revenue of 92.1 billion yuan, with online gaming net income of 89.6 billion yuan, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth [3] - In Q4, revenue from innovation and other businesses was 2 billion yuan, showing a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 42%, with total annual revenue of 6.8 billion yuan [3] - NetEase Yanxuan developed multiple billion-level product series [3] - NetEase Cloud Music achieved annual revenue of 7.8 billion yuan, with steady growth in subscription services [3] - NetEase Youdao reported annual revenue of 5.9 billion yuan, achieving positive operating profit and cash flow for the first time [3] Business and Technology Development - The company has deployed AI-native pipelines extensively in the entire game development process, with some production efficiency improvements reaching 300% [4] - AI-native gameplay features, such as intelligent NPCs and AI teammates, have been scaled in several flagship products [4] - NetEase's game AI technology has been applied in the real economy, exemplified by its embodied intelligent unmanned loader "Lingzai," which enhances operational efficiency in infrastructure scenarios [4] - The CEO stated that artificial intelligence has become a core capability in the company's R&D and operations, with plans to further deepen AI application capabilities [4]