证券研究报告 房地产 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 01 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 唐志玮 tangzhiwei@huayuanstock.com 国务院支持旅居项目建设，关注地产板块配置价值 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——房地产行业周报（26/1/24-26/1/30） | | | 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 板块行情：本周上证指数下跌 0.4%、深证成指下跌 1.6%、创业板指下跌 0.1%、沪深 300 上 升 0.1%、房地产（申万）下跌 2.2%。个股方面，涨跌幅前五的分别为：大悦城(+17.1%)、 京能置业(+12.5%)、新城控股(+11.4%)、京投发展(+7.7%)、招商蛇口(+7.1%)，涨跌幅后五 的分别为：华联控股(-14.9%)、西藏城投(-13.6%)、城建发展(-12.9%)、华夏幸福(-11.9%)、 万通发展(-11.5%)。 联系人 板块表现： ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨房地产 [Table_Title] 不动产的价值和价格 ——房地产行业周度观点更新 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 核心城市住房不存在系统性过剩，也不仅仅是商品，我们可以从资产视角去探讨定价问题，关 键矛盾在于价值和价格的关系。在低租售比背景下，租金涨幅对持有回报率有决定性作用，如 果中短期内没有明显的租金上涨，那么持有住房资产的回报率仍不及可比利率。房价的短期变 化跟合理价值关系不大，主要取决于边际，尤其是产业政策的扰动，社会预期是分层的，对合 理价值的判断也有差异；在房价经历较长时间和较大幅度的调整之后，自然需求和政策干预， 都有可能带来房价的缓和甚至一定修复。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490525060001 SFC：BUV416 刘义 侯兆熔 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 不动产的价值和价格 2] ——房地产行业周度观点更新 [Table_Summary2] 核心观点 止跌回稳的政策目标对市场 ...

公开数据显示，截至2月1日，境内市场已成立公募REITs共80只，融资金额超2000亿元，资产类型涵盖产业园区、仓储物流、能源、保租房等。此次首批商 业不动产REITs上报，将进一步丰富公募REITs的资产类型，促进商业不动产行业的发展。 北京商报讯（记者 李海媛）在商业不动产投资信托基金（REITs）试点政策落地后，首批产品陆续上报。记者注意到，近日，上交所受理8单商业不动产 REITs项目，基金管理人包括国泰海通资管、华夏基金、汇添富基金、华安基金，预计募集金额合计超300亿元。首批项目的资产形态包括商业综合体、商 业零售、商业办公楼等商业不动产。有观点指出，商业不动产REITs的推出对盘活存量资产具有较好的导向，对于商业地产的开发商而言也意味着更好的融 资渠道的建立。 | | 上海增养交易所 REITS 首页 | 项目动态 | 信息披露 | 行情信息 | 新闻动态 | 规则指南 | 业务 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目状态 | 美部 己申报 日受理 | 已反馈 通过 | 未通过 | | | | | | 編号 | 公墓REI ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The real estate market is entering a traditional off-season, with expectations for stronger policy support [3] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes outperformed new homes, indicating a preference for second-hand properties due to better value [8] - The performance of the real estate sector has improved recently, driven by marginal improvements in transaction data and expectations for policy changes [8] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the relative return compared to the CSI 300 index has been -9%, while the absolute return has been +15% [4] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in core cities showed significant year-on-year growth, while new home transactions remained weak [5][6] Key City Insights - Beijing: Second-hand home transactions increased by 397% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 565% [5] - Shanghai: Second-hand home transactions increased by 806% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 525% [6] - Shenzhen: Second-hand home transactions increased by 15% year-on-year, but new home transactions decreased by 64% [6] National Trends - In 30 major cities, the transaction area for new homes increased by 109% year-on-year, but decreased by 26.66% when adjusted for the Spring Festival [7] - The transaction area for second-hand homes increased by 309% year-on-year, with a 12% increase in cumulative transactions for January [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [8] - It also recommends head intermediary firms like I Love My Home, which are expected to benefit from the increasing share of second-hand home transactions [8]

本报记者 田鹏 近日，申万宏源发布多份房地产及物管行业研究报告，明确指出我国房地产行业历经深度调整后，基本面底部正逐步临 近，叠加政策面积极信号持续释放、行业格局优化及估值处于历史低位，房地产及物管板块已具备显著投资吸引力，目前板块 业绩仍然承压，但最困难时期或将逐渐过去，维持"看好"评级，优质房企、商业地产等细分领域将率先受益。 政策端 多维度利好持续积累 结构弹性不断凸显 从行业数据来看，尽管短期仍有压力，但筑底信号已逐步显现。销售端，2025年1月份至12月份全国商品房销售面积同比 下降8.7%、销售额同比下降12.6%，但12月份单月销售面积、销售额同比降幅较前期分别收窄1.7pct、1.5pct，二手房市场表现 更具韧性——2026年1月份重点城市二手房成交同比增长9.3%，较2025年12月份提升36pct，显示存量房市场需求修复节奏快于 新房。 库存方面，截至2026年1月末，15个重点城市住宅可售面积环比基本持平，3个月移动平均去化月数虽有所上升，但部分核 心城市如杭州2026年首宗宅地以19.8%溢价率成交，反映优质地块仍具备吸引力。 投资端虽短期偏弱，但长期修复基础正在夯实。2025年1月 ...

导 读 1、土地成交规模处于季节性低位 2、百强门槛均较同期下滑 3、投资TOP100拿地金额同比降幅近五成 4、供地"窗口期"开启后土拍热度有望回升 | | 金地集团 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 12 | 保利发展 | 22.7 | | 14 | 龙湖集团 | 20. 4 | | 15 | 青铁置业 | 20. 3 20 | | 16 | 和润达开发建设 | 18.9 | | 17 | 四川城更 | 18.5 | | 18 22 11 | 浙江博策 | 17.520 | | 19 | 如东新天顺 | 16.9 | | 19 | 扬州城建 | 16.9 | | 219 | 滨海城更 | 16 3 | | 22 | 汇龙地产 | 15.4 | | 23 | 宜兴经开投资 | 15.3 | | -74 | 湖南大雷投资 | 15 7 | | 25 | 阜宁城建 | 14.7 | | 26 | 元垄地产 | 14.6 | | -27 | 锦诚汇龙房地产 | 14.1 | | 28 | 金洲房地产 | 13.2 | | 29 | 如东荣能实业 | 12.8 | | CF30 | 信阳国信发展 ...

Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector, including brokerage and insurance, shows continued improvement in fundamentals, highlighting the investment value of the non-bank sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of January 31, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 4117.95 points, down 0.44%, while the Shenzhen Component Index was at 14205.89, down 1.62% [10] - The CSI 300 Index increased by 0.08%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.09% [10] - The CITIC II Securities Index fell by 0.71%, while the CITIC II Insurance Index rose by 5.41% [10] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - Listed insurance companies are expected to maintain high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest rate spreads [15] - As of January 30, 2026, the 10-year government bond yield was 1.81%, down 2 basis points from the previous week, indicating a cautious risk preference in the equity market [12] - The insurance sector is benefiting from a stable long-term interest rate environment and an upward trend in the equity market, which is expected to drive performance growth in Q1 2026 [15] Securities Sector - The securities market is showing positive core indicators, with a projected high growth in Q1 2026, supported by improved trading volume and margin financing [16] - As of January 30, 2026, 17 brokerages reported a total net profit of 1153.44 billion CNY for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 60.27% [19] - The average daily trading volume of all A and B shares reached 2.90 trillion CNY, a 144.26% increase compared to the same period in 2025, indicating a significant rise in market activity [21] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The launch of commercial real estate REITs is expected to expand business opportunities, with the first three products anticipated to raise over 13 billion CNY [27] - The REITs initiative aims to activate existing commercial real estate assets and enhance the supply of capital market products, indicating strong market demand [27] - The insurance sector is advised to focus on companies like China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life, which are expected to benefit from favorable market conditions [15]

房地产 2026 年 02 月 01 日 相关研究 《房地产行业 2026 年投资策略：潮平待 风起，扬帆更远航》 2025/11/17 《好房子的另类破局之道，引领核心城市 五重共振——好房子专题报告系列之三》 2025/09/10 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 首批商业不动产 REITs 上报，三条红线政策逐步退场 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2026/1/24-2026/1/30） 本期投资提示： 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房成交环比回升、二手房环比下降，新房成交推盘比回落。上周 (1.24-1.30)34 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector despite current performance pressures [3][4]. Core Insights - Mainstream real estate companies are forecasting a decline or losses in 2025, but the report suggests that the most challenging period may be coming to an end. The report highlights significant declines in new construction and second-hand housing prices, indicating that the industry is nearing a bottom [3][4]. - The central government has emphasized stabilizing the real estate market, with recent policy statements reflecting a more proactive approach to addressing risks and supporting the sector [3][4]. - While overall performance for mainstream real estate companies is expected to remain under pressure in 2025, the report anticipates a recovery in profitability for quality firms, driven by improved sales and operational performance [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Forecasts - Major companies are expected to report significant losses in 2025, with Vanke A forecasting a loss of 82 billion RMB and China Overseas Development projecting a decline of 20% to 0% in net profit [4][6]. - The report categorizes companies based on expected profit growth rates, with some firms like Binjiang Group and New Town Holdings expected to see slight growth, while others like China Jinmao and Vanke A are projected to incur substantial losses [6][7]. Asset and Credit Impairment - The report details the cumulative asset and credit impairment losses for major firms, indicating that some companies have experienced significant write-downs, with New Town Holdings at 27% and Goldfield Group at 25% of their inventory [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for major real estate companies, showing that many are trading at historical lows in terms of price-to-book ratios, suggesting potential investment opportunities [7][8]. - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the sector is noted, with some companies like Poly Development and Binjiang Group showing varying earnings per share forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [7][8].

Core Insights - In January 2026, the total sales of the top 100 real estate companies amounted to 190.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.9% [3] - The equity sales for the same group reached 132.14 billion yuan [3] - The top ten companies by sales include Poly Development, China Overseas, China Resources, Greentown China, China Travel Investment, China Merchants Shekou, China Jinmao, Jianfa Real Estate, Vanke, and Binjiang Group, with only Poly, China Overseas, and China Resources exceeding 10 billion yuan in sales for the month [3] Sales Performance - The average sales for the top 10 companies was 9.33 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year, while the average for companies ranked 11-30 was 2.6 billion yuan, also showing a decline [4] - The ranking of companies has shifted significantly compared to the previous year, with Vanke dropping from 5th to 9th place, while China Travel Investment emerged as a "dark horse" in 5th place [3][4] Market Trends - The decline in sales is attributed to the high base from January of the previous year when the market was more active following the September 2024 policy changes [6] - The industry is undergoing an adjustment phase, with a decrease in the number of companies achieving over 10 billion yuan in sales, while those achieving over 5 billion yuan have increased, indicating a shift from "scale competition" to "quality competition" [6] - In January 2026, 32 companies among the top 100 saw year-on-year sales growth, with 10 companies experiencing growth exceeding 100% [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The new housing market showed weak performance in January, with approximately 8.1 million square meters of new residential sales in 50 key cities, while the second-hand housing market saw a notable increase, with transaction volumes rising by 33% year-on-year [7][8] - The second-hand market's recovery is contributing to stabilizing market expectations, with some cities experiencing a reduction in listing volumes [8] Policy and Future Outlook - The central government has been signaling a focus on stabilizing market expectations, with recent policy measures including interest rate cuts and adjustments to down payment ratios for commercial properties [9] - The upcoming Spring Festival may lead to increased marketing efforts from real estate companies, and the introduction of quality projects could maintain a certain level of market activity in core cities [9] - As of the end of 2025, 21 distressed real estate companies have made progress in debt restructuring, but the challenge remains in converting financial relief into sustainable operational capacity [9]