The seismic event that caused a fatal collapse at Codelco’s biggest mine in Chile is likely to have been caused by mining activity rather than nature, according to a person with direct knowledge of the matter https://t.co/2g13RP0V0P ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a slight upward trend, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and stable supply-demand dynamics, despite some underlying pressures [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data, particularly labor statistics, have shown weakness, leading to a significant increase in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] - The US dollar index is operating weakly, contributing to a favorable environment for copper prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain low, indicating stable supply conditions [1] - Chilean copper miner Codelco has requested permission to partially reopen its flagship El Teniente copper mine, which may impact future production levels [1] Group 3: Market Inventory and Consumption - As of August 7, domestic electrolytic copper inventory stood at 133,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from August 4 [1] - The Shanghai and Guangdong markets continue to see inventory accumulation, while Jiangsu market inventory has decreased [1] - Recent increases in imported copper arrivals in Shanghai have been noted, although downstream consumption remains relatively weak [1] Group 4: Price Outlook - Jinrui Futures indicates that recent disturbances in copper mining and marginally rising rate cut expectations are supporting copper price performance [1] - However, there are concerns about potential downward pressure on prices due to weakening overseas data and slowing domestic demand [1] - Future observations will focus on consumer resilience, as continued weakness below seasonal expectations may limit price support [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump plans to impose about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductor products, but companies building factories in the US will be exempt. Apple will invest an additional $100 billion in US manufacturing, bringing its total US investment to $600 billion. Trump also ordered an additional 25% ad - valorem tax on Indian goods, which will take effect in 21 days, raising the total tariff rate on Indian goods to 50% [8]. - The soybean oil futures 09 contract has reached a 23 - month high. Due to the expected improvement in the balance sheet and relatively low valuation, it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on soybean oil at low prices [9][10]. - The copper price has support, and the future fundamentals will play a major role. It is recommended to buy on dips unilaterally and pay attention to calendar spreads and domestic - foreign spreads [11]. - The asphalt shows a unilateral oscillation, with partial holding of reverse spreads and limited cracking rebound. It is necessary to closely monitor the subsequent demand changes [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1所长早读（Today's Highlights） 3.1.1观点分享（Viewpoints Sharing） - Trump's tariff policies on chips, semiconductors, and Indian goods [8]. 3.1.2所长首推（Top Recommendations） - **Soybean Oil**: With an expected improvement in the balance sheet and relatively low valuation, the soybean oil futures 09 contract has reached a 23 - month high. It is expected to remain strong until the price difference between soybean oil and other oils fully reflects the expected improvement in the soybean oil balance sheet. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on soybean oil at low prices [9][10]. - **Copper**: The price has support, and the future fundamentals will drive the price. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the consumption in the domestic new energy and counter - cyclical industries, as well as overseas markets, is increasing. It is recommended to buy on dips unilaterally and pay attention to calendar spreads and domestic - foreign spreads [11]. - **Asphalt**: It shows a unilateral oscillation, with partial holding of reverse spreads and limited cracking rebound. The current contradictions in the fundamentals are mainly concentrated in weak demand and high social inventories. It is necessary to closely monitor the subsequent demand changes [12][13]. 3.2商品研究晨报（Commodity Research Morning Report） 3.2.1各品种分析（Analysis of Each Variety） - **Copper**: The dollar's decline supports the price. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the consumption in the new energy and counter - cyclical industries is increasing. The trend intensity is 0 [21][23]. - **Zinc**: It shows an oscillatory upward trend. The trend intensity is 0 [24][25]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price. The trend intensity is 0 [27][28]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy**: For aluminum, it is necessary to pay attention to the height of inventory accumulation; alumina shows a short - term oscillation; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of all three are 0 [30][31][32]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel shows a narrow - range oscillation with intensified long - short game; stainless steel is dragged down by supply - demand reality, but the raw material cost limits the downside space. The trend intensities of both are 0 [33][34][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Chile's exports have rebounded. It is necessary to pay attention to the renewal of mining licenses. The trend intensity is 0 [39][40][42]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon requires attention to market sentiment fermentation; polysilicon requires attention to today's market news. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [43][44][47]. - **Iron Ore**: It shows an oscillatory and repeated trend. The trend intensity is - 1 [49][50]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market shows a wait - and - see attitude with wide - range oscillations. The trend intensities of both are 0 [52][53][54]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: They show a strong - oscillatory trend due to sector sentiment resonance. The trend intensities of both are 1 [56][57][58]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: They show a strong - oscillatory trend. The trend intensities of both are 0 [59][60][62]. - **Log**: It shows an oscillatory and repeated trend. The trend intensity is 0 [63][64][66]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene faces increasing supply - demand pressure and a weakening trend; PTA has a low processing fee, an unexpected decline in load, and a rebound in the monthly spread; MEG rebounds due to the warming of coal prices. It is recommended to go long on MEG and short on PTA/PX [68][69][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supports the price [2][4] - Zinc: The price is expected to oscillate upwards [2][7] - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [2][10] - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation [2][13] - Alumina: Short - term oscillation [2][13] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][13] - Nickel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and the nickel price fluctuates in a narrow range [2][16] - Stainless steel: The current supply - demand situation drags down the price, while the raw material cost limits the downside space [2][17] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE copper main contract was 78,280 yuan, down 0.38%; the LME copper 3M electronic disk was at 9,674 US dollars, up 0.41%. The trading volume of the SHFE copper main contract was 56,389 lots, an increase of 13,597 lots; the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 12,883 lots, a decrease of 5,870 lots. The SHFE copper inventory was 20,346 tons, an increase of 1,579 tons; the LME copper inventory was 156,125 tons, an increase of 2,275 tons [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, and exclude Treasury Secretary Bessent from being the Fed chairman. The US ISM services PMI shows signs of weakness, and the price index is high. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products starting from August 1st. Chile's Codelco suspended the operation of the El Teniente copper mine [4][6] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of copper is 0 [6] Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,380 yuan, unchanged; the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was at 2,750 US dollars, down 0.15%. The trading volume of the SHFE zinc main contract was 89,569 lots, an increase of 4,120 lots; the LME zinc trading volume was 7,339 lots, a decrease of 826 lots. The SHFE zinc inventory was 14,375 tons, a decrease of 432 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 89,225 tons, a decrease of 3,050 tons [7] - **News**: The US - Japan trade agreement has continued differences, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff basis [8] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of zinc is 0 [8] Lead - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,855 yuan, up 0.48%; the LME lead 3M electronic disk was at 1,975.5 US dollars, up 0.61%. The trading volume of the SHFE lead main contract was 48,645 lots, an increase of 8,512 lots; the LME lead trading volume was 6,919 lots, a decrease of 97 lots. The SHFE lead inventory was 58,656 tons, unchanged; the LME lead inventory was 268,600 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons [10] - **News**: Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, and exclude Treasury Secretary Bessent from being the Fed chairman. The US ISM services PMI shows signs of weakness, and the price index is high [11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lead is 0 [11] Aluminum, Alumina, Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE aluminum main contract was 20,650 yuan, up 90 yuan; the LME aluminum 3M closing price was 2,622 US dollars, up 57 US dollars. The closing price of the SHFE alumina main contract was 3,241 yuan, up 14 yuan. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,075 yuan, up 70 yuan. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 54.70 million tons, unchanged [13] - **Comprehensive News**: Before the 39% tariff took effect, the Swiss leader's visit to the US was fruitless. Trump ordered an additional 25% tariff on India [15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy is 0 [15] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 121,070 yuan, up 160 yuan; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,935 yuan, down 25 yuan. The trading volume of the SHFE nickel main contract was 87,840 lots, an increase of 3,022 lots; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 82,019 lots, an increase of 2,193 lots [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US. The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project entered the trial - production stage. Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia. Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year. An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park suspended production of all EF production lines [17][18][19] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [21]

Codelco filed a request to restart parts of its biggest copper mine in Chile after a deadly accident halted work last week, according to people briefed on the matter https://t.co/p5kTH0rX7N ...

Group 1 - The copper market is still digesting the impact of U.S. tariff policies, with LME copper prices declining due to a significant increase in inventory [2] - The U.S. has announced tariffs specifically on semi-finished copper products, leading to expectations that COMEX copper inventories may see a return, which contributed to last week's price drop [2] - High tariffs have resulted in no expected increase in copper supply from outside the U.S., providing price support [2] Group 2 - Supply disruptions in Chile are also supporting copper prices, particularly due to issues at Codelco's El Teniente mine, which produced 356,000 tons of copper last year, accounting for about 7% of Chile's total output [2] - Codelco must submit four reports regarding the El Teniente mine collapse before resuming underground operations, indicating potential production interruptions [2] - Low smelting and refining costs suggest tight raw material supplies, and any production disruptions could significantly tighten the market [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, the traditional domestic consumption off - season has suppressed downstream demand, and the inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad fluctuates, suggesting that the Shanghai copper price may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,580, up 250 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,792 lots, a decrease of 19,597 lots; the open interest was 159,866 lots, a decrease of 3,692 lots; the inventory was 18,767 tons, a decrease of 1,581 tons. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 78,615, up 195 [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on August 5, 2025, was 9,634.5, down 74 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 153,850; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 67.32, down 14.59; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 142.61, down 3.38 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 5, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.3795, down 0.06; the total inventory weight was 262,190, an increase of 2,509 [2]. News and Information - **Company News**: Zangge Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II project is expected to be completed and put into production by the end of 2025, with an annual copper output of about 300,000 - 350,000 tons. Codelco, the world's largest copper miner, has stopped the mining operation of its flagship El Teniente copper mine due to an accident and postponed its quarterly earnings release [2]. - **Trade News**: Affected by US tariffs on copper semi - finished products, domestic copper processing exports to the US are under pressure. A copper tube enterprise's goods arriving in the US on August 5 were subject to an additional 50% tariff, with a comprehensive tariff of 97% [2]. - **Industry News**: Japan's Mitsubishi Materials may partially shut down its refinery due to falling copper concentrate processing and smelting fees (TC/RCs), while Chinese smelters maintain record - high production [2]. Industry Operation - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China has increased compared to last week, leading to an increase in the operating rate of China's refined copper (recycled copper rod) production capacity. The raw material and finished - product inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has increased, while that of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased. The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory has increased. The operating rate and order volume of China's copper enameled wire have increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days have decreased. The operating rate and production volume of China's copper strip have increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days have decreased. The operating rate of China's copper tube has decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days have remained flat. The operating rate of China's brass rod has decreased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days have decreased [2]. - In August, the operating rate of domestic copper processing enterprises may be affected by the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional consumption off - season. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod, copper strip, and brass rod may increase month - on - month, while those of recycled copper rod, copper wire and cable, copper enameled wire, copper foil, and copper tube may decrease [2]. Trading Strategy It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels: Shanghai copper at 74,000 - 76,000 and 80,000 - 81,000; London copper at 9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200; US copper at 4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the weakening US employment market, the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is rising. However, the traditional consumption off - season in China suppresses downstream demand, and the inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad fluctuates. The Shanghai copper price may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of different copper markets [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 78,580, up 250 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,792 lots, a decrease of 19,597 lots; the open interest was 159,866 lots, a decrease of 3,692 lots; the inventory was 18,767 tons, a decrease of 1,581 tons. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price was 78,615, up 195 from the previous day [2]. - **London Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) on August 5, 2025, was 9,634.5, down 74 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 153,850 tons. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 67.32, down 14.59; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 142.61, down 3.38. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.1561, up 0.09 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on August 5, 2025, was 4.3795, down 0.06. The total inventory weight was 262,190, an increase of 2,509 [2]. 3.2 Industry News - **Project Progress**: Zangge Mining's Julong Copper Mine Phase II mining and beneficiation expansion project is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2025. After the project is put into operation, the annual output of copper ore of Julong Copper will be about 300,000 - 350,000 tons, which is expected to significantly increase the company's performance [2]. - **Production Interruption**: Codelco, the world's largest copper miner, has stopped the mining operation of its flagship El Teniente copper mine due to an accident and postponed the release of its quarterly results. The impact on production is unknown [2]. - **Tariff Impact**: Affected by the US tariff on copper semi - finished products, some domestic copper processing exports to the US are under pressure. The comprehensive tariff of copper tubes exported to the US has reached 97%, and domestic copper tube enterprises' export orders are directly affected [2]. - **Corporate Strategy Adjustment**: Japan's Mitsubishi Materials is considering partially shutting down its smelter and reducing the processing volume of copper concentrate due to the continuous decline of copper concentrate processing and smelting fees (TC/RCs) [2]. 3.3 Industry Operation - **Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) has increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has increased. The raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased. The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory has increased. The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wires have increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased. The capacity utilization rate and production volume of China's copper strips have increased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased. The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tubes has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have remained unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rods has decreased, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days have decreased [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: In August, the capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper processing enterprises may decline month - on - month. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rods and copper strips and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the capacity utilization rate of recycled copper rods, copper wire and cable, copper enameled wires, copper foils, and copper tubes may decrease month - on - month [2].

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年08月06日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价继续回落，布伦特10合约跌1.46%，OPEC+9月增产决策及近期美国表现不佳的经济数 据仍令市场承压。昨日特朗普表示将在未来24小时大幅提升对印度进口关税以制裁其购买俄油的行 为，临近8月12日到期日中美对等关税延期的问题亦未最终落地，关注俄油制裁引发的油价上行风 险。上周美国API原油库存超预期下降423.3万桶,关注今晚EIA库存表现。 【责金属】 隔夜美国公布7月非制造业PMI从50.8下滑至50.1低于预期的51.5。美联储独立性问题、美国经济前 景担忧以及降息预期升温令美元维持偏弱趋势，国际金价再度测试近三个月以来运行区间高位阻 力。美国经济的不断验证可能令市场情绪存在反复，贵金属震荡趋势中维持回调买入思路。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走跌到MA60日均线下方，一方面伦铜库存单日大增，另一方面特朗普言论，尤其ISM服务 业指数零增长，再次凸显美国经济增长压力，铜价收跌。不过市场仍在评估Codelco地下矿场事故 可能对年度生产目标的影响，下半年供损率有提升风险。伦铜可能震荡下调到9500美元，空单持 有。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The LME copper inventory has increased, putting pressure on copper prices [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 78,580 with a daily increase of 0.32%, and the night - session closing price was 78,70 with a night - session decrease of 0.65%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closing price was 9,635 with a decrease of 0.76% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 42,792, a decrease of 19,597 from the previous day, and the open interest was 159,866, a decrease of 3,692. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 18,753, an increase of 4,937, and the open interest was 265,000, a decrease of 1,316 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 18,767, a decrease of 1,581, and the LME copper inventory was 153,850, an increase of 14,275. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 7.80%, a decrease of 0.85% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME copper spread was - 67.32, a decrease of 14.59 from the previous day. The Shanghai copper spot - to - futures near - month spread was 130, a decrease of 50 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US ISM services PMI in July was only 50.1, with the employment index shrinking and the price index reaching a new high since October 2022. Trump will decide on new Fed governors this week, and will announce drug and chip tariffs within a week and significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours [1][3] - **Industry News**: Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1. Chile's Codelco has suspended the operation of its El Teniente copper mine and postponed the release of its financial report [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]