晨会纪要 2026 第（32）期 发布日期：2026-02-25 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,108.50 | 1,101.50 | 7.0 | 0.635 | | | 焦炭 | 1,646.50 | 1,634.50 | 12.0 | 0.734 | | | 天然橡胶 | 17,180.00 | 17,030.00 | 150.0 | 0.881 | | | 20号胶 | 13,930.00 | 13,795.00 | 135.0 | 0.979 | | | 塑料 | 6,826.00 | 6,820.00 | 6.0 | 0.088 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,747.00 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Cloud Native Computing Foundation (CNCF) has achieved significant growth, hosting over 230 projects and more than 300,000 contributors globally, marking a decade of progress in cloud native technologies [5][15] - In 2025, CNCF launched the Certified Kubernetes AI Platform Conformance Program to standardize AI infrastructure on Kubernetes, addressing the risk of fragmentation in AI workloads [47][48] - The end user community remains a strong asset for CNCF, with notable contributions from organizations like Ant Group and Michelin, showcasing the practical impact of cloud native technologies [8][35] Summary by Sections Introduction - 2025 marks ten years of CNCF, highlighting its evolution and the growth of open source cloud native innovation [5] 2025 Momentum - CNCF continues to support organizations in adopting cloud native tools at scale, with themes like platform engineering, AI, and observability emerging as key areas of focus [6] Leadership - Jonathan Bryce was appointed as executive director, overseeing CNCF's projects and member collaboration [16][17] Membership - CNCF welcomed 135 new members in 2025, bringing the total to nearly 800 member organizations, indicating strong investment in cloud native computing [19][20] End User Community - The CNCF End User community is recognized for its innovative use of cloud native technologies, with awards given to Ant Group and Michelin for their impactful contributions [8][35] Education - CNCF expanded its education initiatives, launching new certifications and achieving significant enrollment increases in existing programs [90][91] Project Updates - CNCF hosted 34 graduated projects, 36 incubating projects, and 144 sandbox projects, reflecting its commitment to project diversity and growth [101] Security - CNCF prioritized security audits and threat modeling, addressing the increasing sophistication of open source supply chain attacks [116][117] Community Engagement - CNCF organized numerous community events, fostering collaboration and knowledge sharing among cloud native enthusiasts [124][125]

Market Overview - The total scale of equity ETFs in the market reached 44,587.78 billion yuan, with an increase of 85.20 billion yuan in total scale over the past week, while total shares decreased by 154.37 billion shares, resulting in a net outflow of 351.82 billion yuan [1] - The Hong Kong and overseas ETF segment saw the highest net inflow of 95.37 billion yuan, primarily driven by inflows into the Hong Kong technology sector, while the broad-based and strategy ETF segment experienced the largest net outflow of 420.79 billion yuan [1] Fund Positioning - In the broad-based and strategy ETF segment, the top three inflow sectors were Free Cash Flow, CSI 2000, and CSI 1000, while the top three outflow sectors were CSI A500, CSI 300, and Sci-Tech 50 [2][3] - The industry and thematic ETF segment saw net inflows in the top five sectors including Robotics, Military Industry, Non-ferrous Metals, Internet, and Chemicals, while the top five outflow sectors included Semiconductor Chips, New Energy, Battery Storage, Innovative Drugs, and Banking [2][4] Key Focus Areas - The Robotics ETF from Penghua (159278) is showing upward momentum, with the founder of Yushu Technology predicting that the future heat of the robotics industry could be 100 to 1000 times greater than the current level, driven by AI advancements [5] - The year 2026 is highlighted as a critical milestone for humanoid robots, with expectations for mass production and significant supply chain developments [5] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing positive momentum, with significant advancements in quantum communication technology and record sales reported by Huahong Semiconductor [7][8] - The storage chip market is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle driven by AI, with increased capital expenditures from global cloud service providers expected to boost demand for servers and upstream components [9]

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 02 月 24 日 电子 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《电子行业跟踪报告：摩尔线程推出智能编程 服务》2026-02-09 《电子行业周报：AI 算力需求爆发，带动半 导体设备、存储赛道景气度上行》2026-02-03 《电子行业跟踪报告：OpenClaw 助力 AI Agent 技术范式升级》2026-02-03 《电子行业周报：Intel 25Q4 服务器与人工智 能业务增长亮眼》2026-01-26 《电子行业跟踪报告：存储封测或将迎来戴维 斯双击》2026-01-26 许亮 S0820525010002 0755-83562506 xuliang@ajzq.com 联系人 朱俊宇 S0820125040021 021-32229888-25520 zhujunyu@ajzq.com 行业及产业 字节跳动发布 Seedance 2.0 ——电子行业跟踪报告 事件：2026 年 2 月 12 日，字节跳动正式发布了新一代音视频创作模型 Seedance 2.0，该 模型 ...

Key TakeawaysAustralia's January CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year, exceeding economist estimates of 3.7% and signaling that inflationary pressures remain stickier than anticipated.The Nikkei 225 index surged to a new all-time high as Japanese government bond yields eased following dovish signals from Prime Minister Takaichi regarding Bank of Japan (BoJ) appointments.Autonomous driving startup Wayve raised $1.2 billion in a Series D round backed by Nvidia (NVDA) and major automakers, with plans to launch robotax ...

Workday CEO布赫里 凤凰网科技讯北京时间2月25日，据彭博社报道，在投资者担心AI将颠覆软件行业之际，美国财务管理 和人力资本管理软件公司Workday CEO阿尼尔.布赫里(Aneel Bhusri)表示，Anthropic等领先AI公司实际 上都在使用他公司的产品。 "不管说这个有没有用，Anthropic、谷歌和OpenAI都在使用Workday的产品。"布赫里周二在与分析师举 行的电话会议上表示。 他表示："这些是真正的记录系统，必须以绝对的准确性和速度处理交易，执行复杂的安全模型，并遵 守全球各地的法定和监管要求。无论怎样的'氛围编程'都无法打造出HR或ERP系统。"ERP指企业资源 规划软件，它将许多基础业务任务整合到单一系统中。(作者/箫雨) Workday开发用于办公事务的软件，例如薪资发放和员工管理。投资者日益担忧，AI工具将使这类工作 变得更加简单，从而削弱对这些产品的需求。今年以来，Workday的股价已暴跌约40%，与其Salesforce 等同行的跌势如出一辙。 作为Workday联合创始人，布赫里本月早些时候回归重新担任CEO。他在2024年辞去联席CEO一职，但 继续担 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current AI industry in the U.S. exhibits characteristics of a "rigid bubble," supported by deep integration into national strategy and strong policy backing, while also facing significant valuation pressures and competition between capital expenditure and output efficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Importance and Policy Support - The development of AI has become central to U.S. national strategy and political correctness, receiving robust policy support and backing from major corporations [1]. - AI-related industries have rapidly increased their share of U.S. GDP from 5.35% in Q1 2020 to 7.36% by Q3 2025, indicating its role as a core growth pillar [1]. - The market capitalization of AI giants, represented by "MAG7," accounts for over 30% of the S&P 500 index, contributing significantly to market growth [1]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - The economic significance of AI has been deeply politicized, with influential figures like Musk and Sachs forming a closed loop of "personnel-policy-interest" through substantial political donations and direct participation [2]. - The U.S. government has systematically dismantled previous regulatory frameworks to facilitate AI industry growth, linking its political survival to the prosperity of the AI sector [2]. Group 3: Valuation and Market Dynamics - The valuation of AI stocks is currently high, with the Nasdaq index's forward P/E ratio stabilizing despite rising stock prices, indicating a rational basis for market growth [3]. - The 12-month forward EPS for the Nasdaq index has risen from approximately $610 at the end of 2024 to $826, suggesting strong earnings growth is absorbing stock price increases [3]. - Unlike the tech bubble era, current tech giants maintain steady revenue growth, supported by robust cash-generating core businesses [3]. Group 4: Constraints on AI Industry Expansion - The AI industry's expansion faces four significant constraints: a dangerous gap between capital expenditure and output efficiency, impending cash flow pressures, physical limitations in semiconductor production and energy supply, and unresolved competition in technology pathways [4][5][6]. - Major companies plan to increase capital expenditures to a total of 640.4 billion yuan by 2026, a 55% increase year-on-year, which may lead to a reliance on future revenue growth [5]. - The industry debt has rapidly escalated to over $150 billion, indicating a potential cash flow gap as companies strive to meet high shareholder return commitments [5]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Recommendations - The company suggests constructing a three-tier dynamic asset allocation strategy in anticipation of a narrative reversal in the AI bubble [7]. - The first tier focuses on "rock-solid" opportunities in internet giants with stable cash flows, providing downside protection and liquidity support [7]. - The second tier emphasizes "shovel-type" opportunities in computing infrastructure, benefiting from increased AI capital expenditure and potential profit increases due to supply constraints [8]. - The third tier targets "contrarian" opportunities in the software sector, where concerns about AI applications may be overblown, allowing for strategic positioning after market corrections [8].

AI技术的个人端应用已相当成熟，但真正渗透企业核心业务流程仍是一道尚未攻克的难关。 2月25日，据科技媒体TechCrunch报道，OpenAI首席运营官Brad Lightcap上周在新德里举行的印度AI影 响力峰会期间表示，尽管企业端AI需求旺盛，但AI大规模落地企业业务流程的愿景目前仍停留在概念 阶段。 他指出，企业组织结构复杂，涉及多团队协作、多系统集成，AI要真正嵌入其中，难度远超个人用户 场景。 为应对这一挑战，OpenAI本月早些时候推出了企业级平台OpenAI Frontier，旨在帮助企业构建和管理AI 智能体。与此同时，OpenAI宣布与波士顿咨询集团（BCG）、麦肯锡、埃森哲及凯捷等头部咨询机构 建立合作，以推动其技术在企业端的部署。 企业AI落地面临深层障碍 报道称，Lightcap坦言，当前AI系统的能力已足够强大，任何个人都可以独立使用，但企业是高度复杂 的组织体，拥有大量人员、团队，需要协同运作，并借助多种不同系统和工具实现复杂目标——这与个 人用户场景存在本质差异。 "我们尚未真正看到企业AI渗透到企业业务流程中，这也是我们近期推进OpenAI Frontier工 作的部分灵感 ...

OpenAI周二宣布任命Arvind KC为首席人力资源官，这位前Roblox公司高管将负责招聘、入职培训和员 工发展，因为ChatGPT的制造商OpenAI正在不断扩张。据OpenAI发言人称，KC将向首席战略官Jason Kwon汇报工作。这家 人工智能初创公司目前正在进行新一轮融资，预计融资额将超过1000亿美元，并 且最近已采取措施推进上市计划。 ...

来源：环球市场播报 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 埃隆-马斯克的人工智能初创公司xAI指控竞争对手山姆-奥特曼（Sam Altman）的OpenAI窃取其商业机 密，加州一名联邦法官周二驳回了xAI的诉讼。 责任编辑：山上 旧金山的美国地区法官Rita Lin表示，xAI可以重新提起诉讼，但目前未能指控OpenAI有任何不当行 为。今年9月提起的诉讼，声称xAI前员工在离职后前往OpenAI就职时带走了与其Grok聊天机器人相关 的源代码和其他机密信息。"值得注意的是，诉讼中没有对OpenAI本身的行径提出指控，" Lin说。"xAI 没有指控任何事实表明OpenAI诱使xAI的前员工窃取xAI的商业机密，也没有指控这些xAI的前员工在受 雇于OpenAI后使用了任何窃取的商业机密。"Lin曾在1月份的意见书表示她很可能会做出有利于OpenAI 的裁决。她要求xAI在3月17日前提交修改后的诉状。xAI 还另外起诉了前工程师李学勤，指控他将商业 机密提供给了 ChatGPT 制造商。在该案中，李学勤被阻止 与OpenAI分享xAI的技术，但OpenAI表示， 李学勤从未为该公司工作过，也从未获 ...