2月24日，丙午马年A股将迎来首个交易日。春节假期期间，全球市场平稳运行，国内消费、文旅、出 行数据持续回暖，叠加政策暖风与资金共振，多家头部券商密集发布研报，一致对马年A股持乐观审 慎、结构性慢牛判断，认为市场将从估值驱动转向盈利驱动，科技成长与内需复苏双轮驱动，春季躁动 行情值得期待。 马年"慢牛"行情有望延续 据Wind数据，近十年春节假期后A股首个交易日，上证指数、创业板指上涨概率均达六成，节后"日历 效应"显著。主流券商对马年A股大势判断高度统一，"长牛""慢牛"成共识，整体走势或呈现平稳开局、 震荡上行、前稳后高的趋势。 东吴证券表示，历史上A股"春节效应"特征显著，节后资金有望"重振旗鼓"带动量价共振修复，A股有 望迎来积极开局。产业趋势层面，机器人、国产大模型在内的科技主线在假期期间持续发酵。后续来 看，两会临近将进一步强化市场维稳预期，白宫官员确认特朗普拟于3月底访华，有助于稳定市场对外 部环境预期。对于节后A股市场表现持乐观判断。 中信证券判断，A股盈利增速将呈现前低后高走势，上半年以估值修复为主，下半年随经济回暖与政策 落地进入业绩兑现阶段。外部环境趋于稳定，内部政策持续发力，市场风险偏 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rise on February 23, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 2.53%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 2.65%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 3.34% [1] - Major stocks such as Zijin Mining, Meituan, and SMIC led the gains, each rising over 5%, while Tencent and Alibaba increased by more than 3% [1] - During the Chinese New Year holiday, the Hang Seng Index saw a cumulative increase of 1.94%, with the China Enterprises Index up by 1.82% and the Tech Index by 0.47% [1] Group 2 - The AH share premium index fell by 2.34% to 113.68 points, marking the lowest level since July 2, 2018, influenced by the strong performance of the Hong Kong market [1] - As of February 23, there were nine stocks with H shares trading at a premium to their A shares, including CATL with a premium exceeding 31% and others like China Merchants Bank and WuXi AppTec with premiums over 10% [1] - Market analysts believe that the positive performance of the Hong Kong market during the holiday may provide a boost to the A-share market post-holiday, with several brokerage firms optimistic about A-share performance [1]

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, driven by favorable policies and continued capital inflow, suggesting potential for sector rebound [1][6]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the sector, indicating expected strong performance relative to the market [2]. Market Performance - As of February 14, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.39%. The CSI 300 Index saw a modest gain of 0.36% [12]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.3% decrease week-on-week [6]. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The report indicates that listed insurance companies are expected to maintain high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest margins. The insurance fund utilization scale reached 38.5 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, up 15.7% year-on-year [18]. - The report suggests that the upcoming spring market rally may drive better-than-expected performance for insurance companies in Q1 2026, supported by a stable long-term interest rate and an upward trend in the equity market [18]. Securities Sector - The report discusses the recent optimization measures for refinancing announced by the three major exchanges, which aim to enhance financing efficiency and support high-quality enterprises [19]. - The new refinancing rules are expected to create structural opportunities for securities firms, shifting the focus from compliance to the ability to identify and serve quality clients [20]. - The report emphasizes that the optimization of refinancing will lead to a more differentiated regulatory system, benefiting quality companies while tightening controls on weaker entities [22]. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed valuations for several key companies in the sector, including: - China Ping An (601318.SH) with a target price of 85.17 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) with a target price of 94.21 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - China Life (601628.SH) with a target price of 55.47 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - The report also highlights the expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for these companies, indicating a positive outlook for their financial performance in 2025 and 2026 [7].

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，春运前20天民航、铁路、公路客运量同比 +5.4%/+4.9%/+5.4%，关注节后初六、十六波峰客流的叠加效应，预计民航春运客流同增5.5%~6.0%。 2026年春运为航空繁荣周期首个"试金石"，关注节后客流叠加，再次强调"重视航司盈利拐点"，2026年 大航或迎利润表显著改善。预计民航春运客流同增5.5%~6.0%。未来两个月预计需求积极因素持续显 现，该行继续强调"2026年大航或迎利润表显著改善"。继续推荐周期弹性显著的航司，业绩确定性较高 的航司。 中信证券主要观点如下： 春运前20天民航、铁路、公路客运量同比+5.4%/+4.9%/+5.4%，关注节后初六、十六波峰叠加效应， 预计民航春运客流同增5.5%~6.0%。未来两个月需求积极因素持续显现，该行继续强调"2026年大航或 迎利润表显著改善"。 截至2月21日(春运前20天，2026年春运起止时间为2月2日(腊月十五)~3月13日(正月廿五))全社会跨区域 累计人员流动同比增长5.2%。分运输方式来看客运量(公路为人员流动量)，民航、铁路、公路分别同比 +5.4% /+4.9%/+5.4%，相对201 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that NetEase (09999, NTES.US) has demonstrated robust operational performance in Q4 2025, with AI deeply integrated across all scenarios, showcasing sustained growth resilience [1] - The gaming business continues to be driven by a dual strategy of "long-term operation of classic IPs + global breakthroughs in new games," with AI technology enhancing efficiency and player engagement throughout the development, gameplay, and operational processes [1] - Non-gaming business shows differentiation, with Youdao's AI-native strategy yielding significant results [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead, the company has a strong pipeline of quality titles such as "Sea of Oblivion" and "Infinite," with a synergistic advantage formed by globalization, multi-platform, and AI integration, highlighting long-term growth potential [1] - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating for NetEase, assigning a 2026 Non-GAAP PE of 16x, corresponding to a target price of $150 per ADR in the US market and HKD 234 per share in the Hong Kong market [1]

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研究报告称，美国最高法院裁决特朗普基于IEEPA的关税非法，特朗普政府试图"平替"的尝试，可能使全球关税预期重 新陷入阶段性混乱。对中国而言，受"休战期"稳定性和特朗普访华诉求影响，预计美国整体对华关税水平可能有所下降，至少在低税率窗口期内，中国劳 动密集型产品出口可能相对受益。展望后续数月，美国与各经济体的关税谈判可能带来诸多预期扰动，特别需关注特朗普潜在访华前的博弈。 美国最高法院裁决特朗普基于IEEPA的关税非法，特朗普政府试图"平替"的尝试，可能使全球关税预期重新陷入阶段性混乱。 根据路透社报道，2月21日美国最高法院裁决认定《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)没有授权总统征收大规模关税。裁决认为，国会在授权行政部门行使关 税权力时，通常会作出明确且严格的规定，而IEEPA中并不存在此类授权；美国最高法院首席大法官罗伯茨表示，政府将IEEPA解读为赋予总统单方面征 收无限制关税并可随意调整的权力，超出了法律本身的授权范围；在与戈萨奇和巴雷特大法官共同撰写的意见中，罗伯茨明确指出，特朗普依据IEEPA征 收关税违反了"重大问题原则"。 "重大问题原则"是近年来美国最高法院 ...

中信证券发布研报称，春节期间阿里巴巴在AI领域动作密集，模型升级与应用放量同步推进，进一步 强化全栈AI布局。2月16日除夕夜，公司开源发布Qwen3.5-Plus，采用混合MoE稀疏架构，总参数3970 亿、激活170亿，在显存占用下降约60%的情况下推理吞吐量最高提升19倍，API价格低至0.8元/百万 Token，兼顾性能与成本效率，为后续Agent应用奠定底层能力基础。应用侧，千问推出30亿元"春节请 客计划"，9小时订单突破1000万单，累计完成1.2亿笔AI购物订单，日活达7352万，全面接入核心生 态，实现从对话工具向可履约助手升级。整体来看，本轮动作体现公司在模型、算力、云与应用生态层 面的协同推进。整体来看，该行判断公司将围绕"消费+AI"战略持续投入，驱动公司核心业务持续上 行，该行依旧看好公司作为优质中国全栈AI资产的独特卡位和长期投资价值，维持公司港股及美股"买 入"评级。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，春节期间阿里巴巴(09988,BABA.US)在AI领域动作密集，模 型升级与应用放量同步推进，进一步强化全栈AI布局。2月16日除夕夜，公司开源发布Qwen3.5-Plus， 采用混合MoE稀疏架构，总参数3970亿、激活170亿，在显存占用下降约60%的情况下推理吞吐量最高 提升19倍，API价格低至0.8元/百万Token，兼顾性能与成本效率，为后续Agent应用奠定底层能力基 础。应用侧，千问推出30亿元"春节请客计划"，9小时订单突破1000万单，累计完成1.2亿笔AI购物订 单，日活达7352万，全面接入核心生态，实现从对话工具向可履约助手升级。整体来看，本轮动作体现 公司在模型、算力、云与应用生态层面的协同推进。整体来看，该行判断公司将围绕"消费+AI"战略持 续投入，驱动公司核心业务持续上行，该行依旧看好公司作为优质中国全栈AI资产的独特卡位和长期 投资价值，维持公司港股及美股"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citic Securities reports that Alibaba (09988, BABA.US) demonstrated robust operational performance in Q4 2025, with AI deeply integrated across all scenarios, showcasing sustained growth resilience [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The gaming segment continues to drive growth through a dual strategy of "classic IP long-term operation + new game global expansion" [1] - AI technology is embedded throughout the research, gameplay, and operational processes, enhancing efficiency and player engagement [1] Group 2: Non-Gaming Business - The non-gaming business shows differentiation, with Youdao's AI-native strategy yielding significant results [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company has a strong pipeline with high-quality titles such as "Forgotten Sea" and "Infinite" [1] - The synergistic advantages of globalization, multi-platform, and AI integration highlight the long-term growth potential [1] Group 4: Investment Rating - Citic Securities maintains a "Buy" rating, projecting a 2026 Non-GAAP PE of 16x, corresponding to a target price of $150 per ADR and HKD 234 per share [1]

春节期间，人民币汇率走出强势拉升行情。2月21日，人民币汇率稳守6.89区间；2月19日，离岸人民币 最低触及6.88，在岸人民币同步升至6.885，双双刷新2023年4月以来高点。进入2月以来，人民币汇率升 值幅度接近1.3%。 尽管春节长假期间国内股市、债市、汇市三大市场均不开市，但是人民币汇率大涨仍是利好。 "人民币汇率大涨，直白说就是人民币国际购买力变强。假期内换外汇、出境游、留学缴费、海淘代购 金额能省一笔；进口奶粉、化妆品、汽车、燃油成本下降，物价更稳。而从更宏观的层面来说，人民币 这波走强，源于经济预期向好、外资持续流入、贸易支撑有力，市场对人民币资产信心大增。汇率稳、 资产稳，对股市、债市都是正面支撑。"嘉盛集团外汇市场专家陈恪对《华夏时报》记者表示。 利好股债汇三市 人民币在春节期间升值背后主要受美元指数走弱、美联储降息预期升温、国内经济稳步恢复以及外贸顺 差保持高位四因素推动。 从数据上看，截至今年1月末，我国外汇储备规模达到33991亿美元，环比增加412亿美元，连续六个月 稳定在3.3万亿元以上；1月银行结汇规模达到2.04万亿元，同样也创下历史新高。 "人民币为什么会在春节前后突然涨 ...