每经记者｜赵雯琪 每经编辑｜陈俊杰 提起迪拜，许多人想到的是摩天大楼与奢华传说。但对中国企业而言，这里是"极限试验场"，要直面高 温、沙漠与陌生的商业规则，也是走向全球化过程中，一个兼具战略意义的关键节点。 2025年，美团、新石器、九识智能、货拉拉等企业相继将业务拓展到阿联酋，与更早扎根于此的中资力 量共同织就了一张密集的出海网络。迪拜由此成为一面清晰的镜子，映照出中国企业与全球市场对话时 的一道必答题：如何在真正理解并尊重另一种文明底层逻辑的前提下，完成出海的创造性落地？ 2025年岁末，《每日经济新闻》未来商业智库特别策划了"镜像2025"，记者深度对话极兔速递、新石器 和九识智能在迪拜的业务负责人，以及货拉拉海外品牌Lalamove首席运营官卢家培，复盘这片市场的挑 战与机遇。 这里的挑战具体且深刻，从禁止三轮车上路导致快递配送成本急升，到自动驾驶要适应本地彪悍的驾驶 风格；从"清真寺后的白房子"等模糊的快递地址带来的困扰，到外籍快递员携款潜逃带来的风险；从40 多摄氏度高温的炙烤，到跨文化团队的管理难题…… 中国企业在这里褪去国内惯性，学习在陌生商业生态中重新扎根。他们在每一次调试、谈判与危机中， ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the shipping industry, particularly for VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) and related companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential benefits from the political changes in Venezuela, which could lead to increased oil exports and a shift from black market operations to normal market conditions, positively impacting VLCC demand [2]. - New ship prices have shown an upward trend, with a 0.5% increase, indicating a positive market sentiment for shipbuilding [2]. - The report notes a significant drop in VLCC average freight rates, down 36% week-on-week, reflecting seasonal trends and geopolitical tensions [2]. - The aviation sector is expected to experience a significant boost due to rising passenger volumes and a constrained supply chain, suggesting a favorable environment for airlines [2]. - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with potential for profit recovery and industry consolidation [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping Industry - Venezuela's shift to normal market operations could increase oil supply and demand for VLCCs, with a projected increase in compliant VLCC oil transport demand by approximately 1.4% [2]. - The report indicates a notable decline in VLCC freight rates, with Middle East to Far East rates dropping by 45% [2]. - The report recommends companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy due to their favorable positioning in the VLCC market [2]. Aviation Sector - The report emphasizes the ongoing challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain and the aging fleet, which is expected to limit supply while demand continues to grow [2]. - Airlines are anticipated to see significant improvements in profitability, marking a potential golden era for the sector [2]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others [2]. Express Delivery - The express delivery industry is undergoing a transformation, with three potential scenarios outlined: profit recovery, increased competition, and consolidation [2]. - Companies such as Shentong Express and YTO Express are highlighted for their resilience and growth potential [2]. Rail and Road Transport - The report notes stable growth in railway freight and highway truck traffic, with December data showing a slight decrease in volumes but overall resilience [2]. - Investment opportunities in high-dividend stocks and undervalued companies in the highway sector are suggested [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [5] Core Views - The domestic flight ticket bookings for the New Year period in 2026 exceeded 3.83 million, a year-on-year increase of 28%, while international flight bookings surpassed 740,000, up 14% year-on-year, indicating strong demand [1][2] - The report remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for the aviation sector under the themes of "expanding domestic demand" and "anti-involution" [2][12] - In the oil shipping sector, attention is drawn to the support for freight rates during the off-season and the timing of investments, particularly focusing on China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping Energy [3][15] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights and Market Review - The transportation sector index fell by 0.70% during the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.83 percentage points [18] - The best-performing segments were air transportation and warehousing logistics, with increases of 5.14% and 0.41%, respectively [18][19] Travel - The report highlights the strong recovery in air travel demand, with a focus on the low growth rate of capacity supply and the continuous recovery of demand, which is expected to narrow the supply-demand gap [2][12] Shipping and Ports - Oil shipping rates have continued to decline, with VLCC market rates dropping to $34,158 per day as of December 31 [3][13] - The dry bulk shipping indices have also seen a decline, with the BDI index at 1,882 points on January 2, 2026 [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the support for freight rates during the off-season and the potential impact of geopolitical developments on shipping logistics [15] Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: 1. Expansion into overseas markets, with Jitu Express planning significant investments in new market operations [4][16] 2. The impact of anti-involution on the industry, where the growth rate is slowing due to increased competition and rising prices, leading to a concentration of market share among leading companies [4][17]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin Securities highlights a recovery in domestic CPI and PPI, alongside a continued interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and express delivery, as well as in oil and bulk commodity supply chains [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macro and Industry Analysis - Domestic CPI and PPI indices are showing signs of recovery, while the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle [2][3]. - The express delivery industry is experiencing a narrowing of price declines due to ongoing "anti-involution" efforts, with average express delivery prices stabilizing [3][4]. - In aviation, ticket prices have shown significant recovery, with the average domestic ticket price in October 2025 reaching 809 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Two main investment themes are identified: 1. Opportunities in aviation and express delivery driven by "anti-involution" and price recovery in the domestic market [2][6]. 2. Investment prospects in oil and bulk commodity supply chains during the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [2][5]. - Recommended companies in the express delivery sector include Jitu Express, Yunda Holdings, and SF Holdings, while in aviation, China National Airlines and China Eastern Airlines are highlighted [6]. Group 3: Bulk Commodity and Shipping Insights - Oil shipping rates have been rising, with OPEC's average crude oil production increasing by 3.4% year-on-year, and significant growth in imports from Brazil [5]. - The bulk shipping sector is benefiting from increased iron ore shipments from Brazil and Australia, with the BDI index showing upward trends [5]. - Major commodity supply chains are entering a replenishment phase, with improvements in the performance of companies like Xiamen Xiangyu [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyin Securities highlights a recovery in domestic CPI and PPI indices, alongside the ongoing interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the transportation sector, particularly in aviation and express delivery, as well as in oil and bulk commodity supply chains [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macro and Industry Analysis - Domestic CPI and PPI indices are showing signs of recovery, while the Federal Reserve remains in a rate-cutting cycle [2][3]. - The express delivery industry is experiencing a narrowing of price declines due to the ongoing "anti-involution" trend, with a notable improvement in air ticket prices and rising shipping rates in oil and bulk transport [1][2][3]. - The average price of express delivery per ticket in October 2025 was 7.48 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.00%, which is an improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.91% [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Two main investment themes are identified: 1. Opportunities in aviation and express delivery driven by the "anti-involution" trend and price recovery in the domestic market [2][6]. 2. Investment prospects in oil and bulk commodity supply chains during the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle [2][6]. - Recommended companies in the express delivery sector include Jitu Express, Yunda Holdings, and SF Express, while in aviation, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines are highlighted [6]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The express delivery sector's growth rate has slowed, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 16.10% from January to October 2025, and a single-digit growth in October [4]. - The average price of domestic air tickets in October 2025 was 809 yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, marking the best monthly performance of the year [3][4]. - In the oil transport sector, OPEC's average crude oil production from January to November was 27,484 thousand barrels per day, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [5]. Group 4: Bulk Commodity Supply Chain - The bulk commodity supply chain is entering a replenishment cycle, with significant increases in iron ore shipments from Brazil and Australia, leading to a rise in the BDI freight index [5]. - Major commodity prices are showing signs of recovery, with companies like Xiamen Xiangyu reporting improved performance in the first three quarters [5].

2025年，海湾资本对中国资本市场的态度发生了结构性转变。这一年，阿联酋、沙特、卡塔尔等国的主权财富基金不再满足于通过国际指数 被动配置中国资产，而是以基石投资人、战略股东、产业合伙人的身份，直接参与中国头部企业的股权融资、定向增发与长期持股。与此同 时，中国企业在海湾的投资也从传统的工程承包转向制造、能源、物流等产业链深度嵌入。双向资本流动的规模、频率与战略性，均达到历 史新高。 海湾主权基金成为A股"新基石"，双向投资进入战略绑定期。 这是在全球资本版图重构的背景下，两个具有高度互补性的经济体系之间的战略性绑定。对于中国资本市场而言，海湾资本正在成为继北向 资金之后，又一股不可忽视的长期增量资金来源；对于海湾国家而言，中国则是其"后石油时代"转型中，技术获取、产业升级与资产多元化 配置的核心目标市场。 一、2025年海湾资本对华投资：规模跃升与结构性意义 根据对公开披露项目、主权财富基金动态以及市场机构统计的综合测算，2025年海湾合作委员会（海合会）六国对华投资总规模达到200亿— 250亿美元（六国2025年对外投资总额约2000亿美元，即对华投资约占到10%），较2024年实现显著增长。这一规模的构 ...

提起迪拜，许多人想到的是摩天大楼与奢华传说。但对中国企业而言，这里是"极限试验场"，要直面高温、沙漠与陌生的商业规则，也是走向全球化过程 中，一个兼具战略意义的关键节点。 今年以来，美团、新石器、九识、货拉拉等企业相继将业务拓展到阿联酋，与更早扎根于此的中资力量共同织就了一张密集的出海网络。迪拜由此成为一面 清晰的镜子，映照出中国企业与全球市场对话时的一道必答题：如何在真正理解并尊重另一种文明底层逻辑的前提下，完成出海的创造性落地？ 时值2025年岁末，《每日经济新闻》未来商业智库特别策划"镜像2025"，记者深度对话极兔速递、新石器和九识智能在迪拜的业务负责人，以及货拉拉海外 品牌Lalamove首席运营官卢家培，复盘这片市场的挑战与机遇。 这里的挑战具体且深刻，从禁止三轮车上路导致快递配送成本急升，到自动驾驶要适应本地彪悍的驾驶风格；从"清真寺后的白房子"等模糊的快递地址带来 的困扰，到外籍快递员携款潜逃带来的风险；从40多摄氏度高温的炙烤，到跨文化团队的管理难题 中国企业在这里褪去国内惯性，学习在陌生商业生态中重新扎根。他们在每一次调试、谈判与危机中，构建新的"航海术"。 从5人到千人团队：极兔在迪拜" ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais expresses confidence in J&T Express-W (01519)'s overseas expansion strategy, projecting sales from new market operations to reach $748 million by 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of $36 million, while maintaining an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 11.9 [1] Group 1: Company Developments - J&T Express has announced a significant increase in its stakes in subsidiaries Jet Global and JNT Express KSA, responsible for its new market operations, involving a total investment of $1.056 billion [1] - The initial payment of approximately $317 million will be made by the end of this year using the company's existing cash reserves [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - This move is deemed crucial for J&T Express's development, as the new market operations are expected to become a new growth engine [1] - A more concentrated shareholding structure is anticipated to enhance decision-making efficiency, with adjusted EBITDA expected to reach breakeven by 2025 [1] - The increase in stakes will also help optimize the company's shareholder structure [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Credit Lyonnais expresses confidence in J&T Express-W (01519)'s overseas expansion strategy, projecting sales from new market operations to reach $748 million by 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of $36 million, while maintaining an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 11.9 [1] Group 1 - J&T Express has announced a significant increase in its stake in subsidiaries Jet Global and JNT Express KSA, responsible for its new market operations, involving a total investment of $1.056 billion [1] - The initial payment of approximately $317 million will be made by the end of this year using the company's existing cash reserves [1] - This move is considered crucial for J&T Express's development, as the new market operations are expected to become a new growth engine [1] Group 2 - A more concentrated ownership structure is anticipated to enhance decision-making efficiency [1] - It is projected that the adjusted EBITDA will reach breakeven by 2025 [1] - The increase in stake will also help optimize the company's shareholder structure [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that J&T Express has significantly increased its stake in subsidiaries Jet Global and JNT Express KSA, with a total investment amounting to $1.056 billion [1] - The initial payment of approximately $317 million will be made by the end of this year using the company's existing cash reserves [1] - This move is considered crucial for J&T Express's development, as the new market operations are expected to become a new growth engine, and a more concentrated shareholding structure will enhance decision-making efficiency [1] Group 2 - The investment is also expected to optimize the company's shareholder structure [1] - The bank maintains confidence in J&T Express's overseas expansion strategy, projecting that sales from new market operations could reach $748 million by 2025, with adjusted EBITDA of $36 million [1] - The bank reaffirms its "outperform" rating with a target price of HKD 11.9 [1]