● 本报记者 万宇 *ST松发预计2025年实现净利润24亿元-27亿元，扭亏为盈。2025年四季度，多家基金公司旗下产品增持 *ST松发或新进机构投资者名单。其中，谢书英管理的兴全合瑞在2025年四季度增持*ST松发，华夏基 金、工银瑞信基金等公司旗下产品新进该股机构投资者名单。不过，也有基金公司减持*ST松发，如博 时基金旗下产品在2025年四季度合计减持该股738.71万股。 通化东宝预计2025年实现净利润12.42亿元，也实现扭亏为盈。2025年四季度，7家基金公司旗下产品新 进通化东宝机构投资者名单。 宏和科技预计2025年实现净利润1.93亿元-2.26亿元，同比增长745%-889%。2025年四季度，6家基金公 司旗下产品新进宏和科技机构投资者名单。 佰维存储预计2025年实现净利润8.5亿元-10亿元，同比增长427.19%-520.22%。截至2025年底，共有40 家基金公司旗下产品持有佰维存储，多只产品在2025年四季度增持佰维存储。其中，兴证全球基金、永 赢基金、华商基金旗下产品当季增持佰维存储均超100万股，广发基金、汇添富基金旗下产品在2025年 四季度新进佰维存储的机构投资者 ...

Core Insights - The A-share commercial aerospace and non-ferrous metals sectors have entered a phase of wide fluctuations, with related index funds experiencing significant tracking errors and volatility [1][3] - Fund managers have taken measures to suspend large subscriptions over 1 million yuan for certain thematic index funds due to the challenges posed by rapid market movements [4][7] Fund Performance and Flows - In January, the Southern CSI Shenwan Non-ferrous Metals ETF saw net inflows exceeding 18 billion yuan, with several other thematic ETFs attracting over 10 billion yuan each [2] - By the end of January, multiple thematic ETFs, including the Southern CSI Non-ferrous Metals ETF and the Guotai CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment ETF, surpassed 20 billion yuan in scale [2] Market Volatility and Management Challenges - The recent volatility in popular sectors has led to significant fluctuations in fund net values, with some satellite-themed index funds rising over 8% on January 23, only to drop over 7% by January 26 [3] - Tracking errors for certain index funds have increased, with some exceeding 1% in January, compared to less than 0.5% in the previous month [3][4] Operational Strategies - Fund managers are advised to implement refined operations and disciplined execution to manage tracking errors effectively, especially during periods of high volatility [5][6] - Strategies include phased investments, algorithmic trading, and prioritizing high liquidity core assets to mitigate impact costs [6] Recommendations for Fund Management - It is suggested to adopt a "core + satellite" sampling replication method to ensure high liquidity and weight in core assets while adjusting cash reserves dynamically based on market conditions [6] - Establishing a multi-dimensional prevention and response mechanism is crucial for managing fund flows and tracking accuracy [6]

Core Insights - Over 2900 A-share listed companies have released their 2025 earnings forecasts, with high-performing companies attracting significant interest from fund institutions [1][2] - Notable companies with substantial profit growth include Zijin Mining, which is expected to achieve a net profit of 510-520 billion yuan, and Industrial Fulian, projected to reach 351-357 billion yuan [2][3] Company Performance - Zijin Mining is expected to see a net profit increase of 59%-62% in 2025, with 78 fund companies holding its shares, including well-known fund managers [2] - Industrial Fulian anticipates a net profit growth of 51%-54%, with 96 fund companies holding its shares, primarily managed by E Fund [3] - *ST Songfa is projected to turn a profit with a net profit of 24-27 billion yuan, attracting new institutional investors in Q4 2025 [4] - Tonghua Dongbao expects a net profit of 12.42 billion yuan, also turning a profit, with new institutional investors entering in Q4 2025 [4] - Honghe Technology forecasts a net profit of 1.93-2.26 billion yuan, showing a significant growth of 745%-889%, with new institutional investors in Q4 2025 [4] - Baiwei Storage anticipates a net profit of 8.5-10 billion yuan, with 40 fund companies holding its shares and several increasing their positions in Q4 2025 [5] Market Outlook - The release of earnings forecasts and annual reports is expected to lead to a focus on companies' performance, with a potential for market stabilization and upward movement [6] - Fund institutions suggest that the market may return to a structure driven by "profit certainty + industry trends," with opportunities in core technology and manufacturing sectors [6] - External factors may create short-term pressure, but domestic policy support and a stable capital market are expected to mitigate significant downturns [7] - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on growth sectors like AI and semiconductors, as well as areas benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, such as new energy [7]

在持续多日遭遇资金大幅流出后，股票型ETF终于重现资金净流入。 据Choice测算，2月3日，股票型ETF（剔除跨境ETF）净流入69.65亿元，其中多只宽基ETF吸引资金涌入。与此同时，虽然港股科技板块持续调 整，大量资金借道ETF加仓。 股票型ETF重现净流入 据Choice测算，2月3日，股票型ETF（剔除跨境ETF）净流入69.65亿元，其中多只宽基ETF吸引资金涌入。具体来看，南方中证500ETF净流入 35.66亿元，南方中证A500ETF、华夏科创50ETF、易方达沪深300ETF、南方中证1000ETF、华夏沪深300ETF等净流入均超5亿元。 | 基金全称 | 2月3日 净流入额 | | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | | 南方中证500交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 | 35.66 | | 国泰中证全指证券公司交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 | 11.17 | | 南方中证A500交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 | 9.73 | | 华夏上证科创板50成份交易型开放式指数证券投资基金 | 7.60 | | 易方达沪深300交易型开放式指数发起式证券投资基金 | 7.07 | | 南 ...

ETF Industry News - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 4100 points, with multiple ETFs in the oil and petrochemical sector experiencing significant gains, including the Energy ETF Guangfa (159945.SZ) up by 5.99% and the Energy ETF (159930.SZ) up by 5.33% [1] - On February 3, the A-share market saw a reversal with a net inflow of nearly 10 billion yuan into stock ETFs, marking one of the few days of net inflow since January. Major ETFs tracking the CSI 500, CSI 300, and STAR 50 indices saw significant inflows, while thematic ETFs in sectors like non-ferrous metals and photovoltaics experienced net outflows [2] - As of January 31, 2026, 14 ETFs have expanded by over 10 billion yuan, with a notable shift towards industry-themed ETFs and commodity ETFs, indicating a consensus among investors on sectors supported by industrial policies and positive fundamentals [3] Market Overview - On February 4, the A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% to close at 4102.2 points, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.4%. The top performers among major indices included the CSI 300 and CSI 800 [4] - In terms of sector performance, coal, building materials, and real estate sectors led the gains with daily increases of 7.58%, 3.48%, and 2.97% respectively, while media, communication, and computer sectors lagged behind [7] ETF Market Performance - The average daily return for commodity ETFs was the highest at 3.70%, while stock-themed index ETFs had the lowest average return at -0.08% [10] - The top-performing ETFs included the Coal ETF (515220.SH) with a return of 9.07%, followed by the Energy ETF Guangfa (159945.SZ) and the Energy ETF (159930.SZ) with returns of 5.99% and 5.33% respectively [13] - The top three ETFs by trading volume were the A500 ETF Southern (159352.SZ) with a trading volume of 7.732 billion yuan, the CSI 500 ETF (159338.SZ) with 6.968 billion yuan, and the A500 ETF Fund (512050.SH) with 14.236 billion yuan [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy indicates that technology and artificial intelligence are entering an accelerated implementation phase, and the implementation of AI applications in leading technology companies is evident, supporting their performance growth [4]. - The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index focuses on leading technology companies in the Hong Kong stock market, has a high - weight concentration, and has relatively excellent historical performance. It also has differences and advantages compared with other Hong Kong technology indexes [4]. - The Huaxia Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF has increasing circulating shares and good on - site liquidity since its listing, and its fund managers have rich experience in managing ETF products [4]. 3. Summary According to Directory 3.1 Artificial Intelligence Accelerates Implementation, Supporting the Growth Momentum of Leading Technology Companies 3.1.1 Policy Points to Technology and Artificial Intelligence Entering an Accelerated Implementation Phase - On January 9, 2026, eight departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on the Special Action of 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'". By 2027, China will promote the in - depth application of 3 - 5 general large - models in the manufacturing industry, form a large - scale application paradigm covering multiple industries, build 1000 high - level industrial intelligent agents, create 100 high - quality industrial data sets, and promote the implementation of 500 typical application scenarios [4][10]. 3.1.2 The Implementation of AI Applications in Leading Technology Companies is Evident, Supporting Performance Growth - Tencent Holdings: In the second quarter of 2025, AI - driven advertising technology upgrades significantly improved click - through rates and delivery efficiency, and marketing service revenue increased by about 20% year - on - year. The demand from enterprise customers for AI services has increased, and GPU leasing and API token usage have become new sources of revenue [13][14]. - Alibaba: In fiscal year 2025, the revenue growth rate of Alibaba Cloud's public cloud accelerated significantly, and the revenue of AI - related products has achieved triple - digit growth for seven consecutive quarters. The company clearly takes "AI + Cloud" as its core growth direction [14]. - Meituan: In 2025, it introduced AI technology and intelligent assistant tools in multiple scenarios, which helps optimize resource allocation and improve user and merchant experience [14]. - Xiaomi: By the end of 2024, the Xiaomi AIoT platform had connected 904 million devices (excluding smartphones and laptops), showing that AI has formed a real and continuous demand in the terminal [15]. 3.2 Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index: Fully Covers the Hong Kong Technology Field and has High Offensive Elasticity 3.2.1 The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index Focuses on Leading Technology Companies in the Hong Kong Stock Market - The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index selects 30 listed company securities with large market capitalizations in the technology - related fields that are listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and eligible for the Stock Connect program as index samples. As of December 31, 2025, the sum of the weights of the top five constituent stocks was 60.45%, and the sum of the weights of the top ten constituent stocks was 79.53%. Leading enterprises such as Tencent Holdings, Alibaba - W, Xiaomi Group - W, and Meituan - W have a weight of more than 10% [4][20]. 3.2.2 Comparison of the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index with Other Hong Kong Technology Indexes - In terms of the main industries covered by the index, the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has a wider coverage. It includes the pharmaceutical industry compared with the Hang Seng Technology Index and adds hardware equipment, semiconductors, automobiles, and the pharmaceutical industry compared with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index. In terms of the single - weight limit, it increases the weights of heavy - weight stocks compared with the Hang Seng Technology Index, making the index more elastic [4][28]. 3.2.3 The Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has Relatively Excellent Historical Performance - From 2019 to 2025, the annualized return of the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index was 12.98%, and the Sharpe ratio was 0.35, both significantly higher than those of the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index. In annual return comparisons, it has greater elasticity in good market conditions and smaller decline amplitudes in poor market conditions [4][36]. 3.3 Analysis of the Investment Value of the Huaxia Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF 3.3.1 The Circulating Shares have been Continuously Increasing Since Listing and the On - site Liquidity is Good - Since its listing on September 3, 2025, the circulating shares of the Huaxia Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF have been increasing. As of January 27, 2026, the circulating shares increased to 3.059 billion, a 131.22% increase compared with the listing. Its on - site average daily turnover was 341 million yuan, and the highest daily turnover reached 792 million yuan [4][42][43]. 3.3.2 The Current Fund Managers' Managed ETF Products - The current fund managers of the Huaxia Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF are Mr. Xu Meng and Ms. Wang Xinwei. Taking Mr. Xu Meng as an example, as of January 27, 2026, he is currently managing 10 ETF products with a total scale of 222.98 billion yuan [49].

| 名称 | 最新, | 涨幅↑ | 涨跌。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金股ETF工银 159315 | 2.084 | -10.02% | -0.232 | | 黄金股票 ETF 159321 | 1.977 | -10.01% | -0.220 | | 黄金股票 ETF 517400 | 2.006 | -10.00% | -0.223 | | 黄金股ETF 517520 融 | 2.537 | -10.00% | -0.282 | | 黄金股ETF 159562 ■ | 2.762 | -10.00% | -0.307 | | 黄金股票ETF ... 159322 | 2.043 | -10.00% | -0.227 | 国际金价的剧烈波动传导至国内黄金ETF上，在过去一周里同步上演了"过山车"行情。 "从来没有想到ETF产品也能出现跌停，而且连续两个交易日都是集合竞价百万手级别跌停封单，根本 没法卖出。好在我持有的黄金股ETF在1月30日冲高回落之际就清仓了，如果多放两天，盈利至少回撤 25%。虽然我对黄金走势长期看好，但是短期与黄金挂钩的ETF产品波动还是会比较大 ...

值得一提的是，近些年来富国基金多位核心基金经理相继离职，包括二级债"准一哥"刘兴旺、QDII明星 宁君均于2025年11月双双挂靴，范妍等外来人才临危受命，不过目前来看表现平平，投研换血成效仍有 待观察；富国天惠成长混合（LOF）C近一年跑输同类18个百分点、近两年跑输同类近30个百分点，朱 少醒"常青树"光环稍显褪色。 6只基金清盘 Wind数据显示，2025年全年富国基金旗下基金产品为投资者实现的总利润超1050亿元，其中主动权益 类产品合计为基民赚得566.10亿元。 《东西财经》梳理发现，赚钱能力排名靠前的分别为富国天惠精选成长混合（LOF）A/B、富国新兴产 业股票A、富国创新科技混合A、富国稳健增长混合A、富国中小盘精选混合A、富国沪港深业绩驱动混 合A、富国均衡优选混合、富国互联科技股票型A、富国天瑞强势精选混合A、富国创新趋势股票A，利 润分别为43.49亿元、41.73亿元、31.82亿元、20.25亿元、19.5亿元、19.48亿元、17.82亿元、17.73亿 元、17.37亿元、17.02亿元。 尽管2025年富国基金业绩表现亮眼，但在高光背后则是2022年至2024年旗下混合型基金给 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to reclaim the 4100-point mark, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.21%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.4% [2] - Over 3200 stocks in the market saw gains, with total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reaching 2.48 trillion yuan, a decrease of 63.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - The market theme for the day was "consolidation," following a significant drop on Monday and a strong recovery on Tuesday [2] Sector Performance - The coal sector experienced a surge, with a wave of stocks hitting the daily limit, while the space photovoltaic sector also saw explosive growth [2] - Active sectors included airport shipping, real estate, and hydrogen energy, while sectors such as AI applications, precious metals, and computing hardware faced the largest declines [2] Fund Flows - Major indices like the SSE 50, CSI 300, and dividend index showed stronger performance, indicating that large capital outflows may have ended [4] - Data showed that previously declining ETFs, such as the CSI 300 and CSI 500, experienced slight net inflows on February 3 [4] ETF Inflows - The top 10 ETFs by net inflow on February 3 included the Southern CSI 500 ETF with a net inflow of 35.665 billion yuan and the Guotai CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF with 11.167 billion yuan [5] - The Southern CSI A500 ETF and the Huaxia Hang Seng Internet Technology ETF also saw significant inflows, indicating renewed interest in these funds [5] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment appears to be stabilizing, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding from a low of 4002 points, suggesting a potential short-term bottom if large capital does not exert downward pressure [11] - However, the market is experiencing increased volatility, with rapid sector rotation making it challenging for short-term investors [13][20] Sector Rotation - Only the photovoltaic equipment sector has consistently performed well in the past week, while other sectors like precious metals and communication equipment have shown inconsistent performance [16][18] - The rapid rotation in sectors indicates that chasing high-performing stocks may lead to losses, and investors are advised to be cautious [20] Key Sectors to Watch - The photovoltaic sector, particularly space photovoltaic, is gaining attention due to developments from SpaceX and its plans for solar capacity in the U.S. [24][25] - The coal sector is expected to see a recovery in 2026, driven by production cuts in Indonesia and seasonal production declines [26][27] - The hydrogen energy sector is poised for growth due to increased policy urgency and infrastructure readiness, presenting significant opportunities [28] - The liquor sector is also showing signs of stability, with expectations of a bottoming out in 2026, making it a potential investment opportunity [29]

中长期的新驱动力：去美元化与央行购金。非美国家持有的黄金价值已超过美债价值，显示出对美元信 用的不信任的共识已经形成。非美央行正在加速购金以替代外汇储备。由于金矿开采存在供给刚性，央 行的大规模购金（数万吨）势必会挤压私人投资盘，引发实物短缺，助推中长期黄金价格的持续上行， 8000可期 黄金ETF锚定实物黄金，其底层资产为上海黄金交易所的黄金现货合约，直接反映黄金价格波动，支持 T+0交易。 金ETF密切跟踪上海黄金交易所黄金现货实盘合约价格，透明度高而且流动性好，支持T+0日内交易。 华鑫证券表示，黄金传统研究框架对本轮黄金大涨的解释力十分有限，主要是短期美元指数走低和中长 期美元信用替代逻辑的叠加，市场情绪和动量资金驱动。随着美元信用裂缝的扩大，黄金中长期上涨的 逻辑在强化。但由于长期逻辑短期化交易较为极致，黄金投资盘多头回落、实业盘空头较低，PCR处于 历史底部，短期黄金市场"裸多"风险值得警惕。特别是在白银"空头拥挤+高波动率+高持仓"的背景下， 白银高位回落拖累黄金的概率在提升。 传统框架崩塌：过去美元、实际利率和风险定价的黄金研究框架解释力显著减弱。非框架因素解释贡献 再度创新高。从大宗商品联动 ...