Group 1 - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. by leading silicon material companies is seen as a significant step towards "de-involution" in the photovoltaic industry [1] - The planned silicon material capacity retention by related companies will not exceed 1.5 million tons, with Guanghe Qiancheng's registered capital at 3 billion yuan [1] - Guanghe Qiancheng aims to create an industry-level capacity integration and strategic storage platform, with a core mission of not selling polysilicon [1] Group 2 - The polysilicon industry is expected to enter a new development phase characterized by "market-oriented operations + industry collaborative regulation" [1] - The introduction of a new mechanism is projected to stabilize the mainstream price of polysilicon at over 60,000 yuan per ton [1] - Major photovoltaic companies are anticipated to become profitable by 2026, with attention on the 2025 photovoltaic industry conference [1] Group 3 - The Science and Technology Innovation Energy ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Science and Technology Innovation Board New Energy Index, which includes 50 large-cap stocks in the photovoltaic, wind power, and new energy vehicle sectors [2] - As of November 28, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index account for 47.84% of the total index, including companies like LONGi Green Energy and Trina Solar [2]

近日，由多家硅料龙头企业及中国光伏行业协会联合投资设立的北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司（简 称"光和谦成"）正式登记成立。该公司被视为多晶硅产能并购整合平台，其成立是光伏行业"反内卷"的 重要一步。 12月12日，上海证券报记者从光和谦成股东层面获悉，未来，该平台规划保留的硅料产能不会超过150 万吨。另外，光和谦成公司目前注册资本为30亿元，持股比例靠前的股东包括通威股份、协鑫科技、东 方希望、大全能源、新特能源等。有接近股东的知情人士介绍，光和谦成公司未来会进行增资，届时各 股东持股份额仍会有变动，而且，光和谦成公司股权份额可以在股东内部自由流动。 "光和谦成不存在实际控制方，这个公司本来就是处理资产的，不做经营用途。"该人士表示。 （文章来源：上海证券报） ...

近日，由多家硅料龙头企业联合投资设立的北京光和谦成科技有限责任公司正式登记成立，这被视为光 伏行业"反内卷"的重要一步。记者从业内知情人士处获悉，未来，相关企业规划保留的硅料产能不会超 过150万吨；另外，光和谦成公司目前注册资本为30亿元，持股比例靠前的股东包括通威、协鑫、东方 希望、大全能源、新特能源等。该知情人士介绍，光和谦成公司未来会进行增资，届时各股东持股份额 仍会有变动，而且，光和谦成公司股权份额将可以在股东内部自由流动。（人民财讯） ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. by leading silicon material companies is seen as a significant step towards "de-involution" in the photovoltaic industry [1] Group 1: Company Formation - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. has officially been registered, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [1] - Major shareholders include Tongwei, Xiexin, Dongfang Hope, Daqo Energy, and New Special Energy [1] Group 2: Industry Capacity Planning - The planned silicon material capacity retention by related companies will not exceed 1.5 million tons [1] - Future capital increases are anticipated for Guanghe Qiancheng, which may lead to changes in shareholder equity [1] - Shareholding proportions within Guanghe Qiancheng will be allowed to flow freely among shareholders [1]

Core Insights - The establishment of Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. is seen as a "silicon material storage platform" in the photovoltaic industry, with major players like Tongwei, GCL, Daqo, and Xinte participating as shareholders [1][2] - The platform aims to explore strategic cooperation opportunities within the industry, focusing on sustainable development rather than individual market expansion [1][3] Shareholder Information - Tongwei's subsidiary holds 30.35% of Guanghe Qiancheng, while GCL holds 16.79%. Other shareholders include Daqo, Xinte, and several smaller companies, with their respective shares ranging from 5.13% to 11.3% [2] - The platform's shareholder list also includes Beijing Zhongguang Tonghe Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association [1][2] Industry Context - According to Bernreuter Research, in 2024, the top four global polysilicon manufacturers will be Tongwei, GCL, Daqo, and Xinte, collectively holding 65% of the global market share [2] - The total planned capacity of polysilicon manufacturers not participating in Guanghe Qiancheng, such as Hoshine and its subsidiary, exceeds 80,000 tons [3][4] Future Projections - CITIC Securities predicts a negative growth in global new photovoltaic installations in 2026, estimating a decrease of 10.07% year-on-year, with a projected demand for polysilicon at 116,000 tons [4] - The establishment of Guanghe Qiancheng is seen as timely, as the industry faces a significant oversupply of polysilicon capacity compared to demand [4][6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., a national-level operation platform for polysilicon capacity integration and strategic storage, is expected to fundamentally change the competitive landscape of the polysilicon industry [6] - The main mission of this platform is to adjust and stabilize industry capacity and products through market-oriented methods, with mainstream polysilicon prices expected to stabilize above 60,000 RMB per ton [6] - Major photovoltaic companies are optimistic about profitability in 2026, as indicated by Longi Green Energy's employee stock ownership plan [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of -9.36% over one month, 6.86% over three months, and 0.92% over twelve months, with absolute returns of -11.56%, 10.16%, and 15.84% respectively [3] Market Dynamics - The polysilicon market is entering a new phase characterized by "market-oriented operations + industry collaborative regulation" [6] - In November, domestic polysilicon production was approximately 114,900 tons, a significant decrease of 15.9% month-on-month, with expectations for December production to remain below 120,000 tons [6] Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks to focus on include Tongwei Co., Daqo New Energy, TCL Zhonghuan, and Shuangliang Eco-Energy for supply-demand improvement [6] - For new technology routes in BC batteries, recommended stocks include Longi Green Energy, Aiko Solar, Dier Laser, Juhua Materials, and Boqian New Materials [6]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/12/11 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 美债收益率集体下跌，2 年期美债收益率跌 7.24 个基点报 3.538%，3 年期美 债收益率跌 6.39 个基点报 3.589%，5 年期美债收益率跌 5.59 个基点报 3.731%， 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.51 个基点报 4.149% ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, the third consecutive meeting with a rate cut, and has cumulatively cut rates by 75 basis points this year [2] - The IMF predicts that China's economy will grow by 5.0% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points compared to the October "World Economic Outlook" [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot News - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for the silver futures AG2602 contract starting from the settlement after the close on December 12, 2025. The daily price limit will be adjusted to 15%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 16%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 17% [2] - Malaysia's palm oil imports in November were 23,176 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 36.12%. The inventory was 2,835,439 tons, a month-on-month increase of 13.04%. Exports were 1,212,814 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 28.13%. Production was 1,935,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.30% [2] - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. was officially registered with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, jointly held by Tongwei Co., Ltd., GCL Technology Consulting Service Co., Ltd., Daquan Energy, Xinte Energy, etc. [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include silver, rapeseed oil, pulp, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [4] Night Session Performance - The night session performance of commodity futures shows that the precious metals sector had a significant increase of 30.86%, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector with 24.53%, and the coal, coke, and steel ore sector with 11.60% [4] Plate Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, but specific data is not described in text [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the CSI 500 had a daily increase of 0.49%, a monthly increase of 1.77%, and an annual increase of 24.98%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 0.55%, and an annual increase of 17.09% [6] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.06%, a monthly increase of 0.08%, and an annual decrease of 0.82% [6] - In the commodity category, the London spot gold had a daily increase of 0.50%, a monthly increase of 0.22%, and an annual increase of 61.10%. The LME copper had a daily increase of 0.63%, a monthly increase of 3.44%, and an annual increase of 31.63% [6] - Other assets such as the US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.60%, a monthly decrease of 0.80%, and an annual decrease of 9.07% [6] Trends of Major Commodities - The chart shows the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., but specific data is not described in text [7]

2025年12月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：如期降息 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：再创新高，突破60 | 3 | | 铜：美元回落，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：高位回落 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，限制价格回落 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：继续震荡 | 12 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：上方承压明显 | 14 | | 钯：震荡偏上 | 14 | | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 16 | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：大厂复产消息反复，高位震荡 | 18 | | 工业硅：关注工业硅厂挺价情况 | 20 | | 多晶硅：平台公司股权细节公布，盘面继续逢低做多 | 20 | | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：地产板块情绪扰动，低位震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：地产板块情绪扰动，低位震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦炭：宽幅 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the price - holding situation of industrial silicon plants [1]. - For polysilicon, with the details of the platform company's equity announced, the disk is recommended to go long on dips [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market** - Si2601: The closing price was 8,250 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from T - 1, 670 yuan from T - 5, and 1,040 yuan from T - 22. The trading volume was 252,510 lots, down 71,000 lots from T - 1. The open interest was 171,757 lots, down 13,514 lots from T - 1 [1]. - PS2601: The closing price was 55,915 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume was 116,207 lots, down 42,531 lots from T - 1. The open interest was 54,959 lots, down 13,915 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis and Price** - Industrial silicon: The spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +950 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan from T - 1. The Xinjiang 99 - silicon price was 8750 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - Polysilicon: The spot premium (against N - type reinvestment) was - 3915 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan from T - 1. The N - type reinvestment polysilicon price was 52300 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Profit** - Industrial silicon: The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 3019.5 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from T - 1. The profit of Yunnan new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 4131 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.0 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Inventory** - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.8 million tons, with an increase of 0.8 million tons compared to T - 5. The enterprise inventory was 18.3 million tons, with an increase of 0.29 million tons compared to T - 5 [1]. - **Other Products in the Industry** - Organic silicon: The DMC price was 13600 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1. The DMC enterprise profit was 1801 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The ADC12 price was 21500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan from T - 1. The recycled aluminum enterprise profit was - 270 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - A new platform company, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., has 10 shareholders, 9 of which are silicon - material production enterprises. Among them, Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s holding subsidiary holds 30.35% with a subscribed registered capital of 910.5 million yuan, and GCL Technology's subsidiary holds 16.79% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [3].