Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that recent liquidity shocks in overseas markets, driven by concerns over the AI software bubble and subsequent momentum selling, have led to significant volatility in equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. It suggests that some assets may have been "wrongly killed" due to these liquidity shocks, as the macroeconomic fundamentals and broad liquidity environment have not changed significantly [1][13] - The report anticipates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment and CPI data for January may present upward risks, potentially reversing the slight increase in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts observed this week [1][13] Financial Products - The report highlights that overseas market liquidity shows signs of stabilization, which may improve market sentiment. It predicts a positive outlook for the A-share market in February, with a historical probability of 78.57% for an increase following a macro timing model score of 0 [1][16] - Fund allocation recommendations suggest a balanced ETF configuration due to expected short-term market fluctuations, with a focus on sectors like chemicals and electric grid equipment, which continue to see increasing fund sizes [1][16] Commodity Market - The report discusses the impact of liquidity shocks on commodity prices, noting that certain commodities, which rely on supply-demand improvements, have been "wrongly hurt" but may return to fundamental pricing logic as market conditions stabilize [2][17] - It emphasizes that the recent volatility in silver and other precious metals indicates a potential end to the liquidity shock, with silver becoming a key indicator of market sentiment [2][17] Environmental Industry - The report stresses the importance of advancing the national carbon market and outlines investment recommendations in clean energy, energy conservation, and recycling sectors. It highlights specific companies such as Longjing Environmental and others involved in renewable energy and waste management [6][10] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report notes a recovery in the IPO and refinancing market, with significant year-on-year growth in both areas. It indicates that the capital market reforms and increased market activity are expected to benefit brokerage firms' investment banking revenues [9] AI Industry and Bond Financing - The report focuses on the AI industry, highlighting the need for a diversified financing system to support technology companies, particularly private firms with high growth potential. It reviews case studies of leading tech companies' bond financing paths to assess the feasibility of similar strategies in China [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the environmental industry, indicating an "Overweight" investment rating for the sector, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The environmental industry is experiencing a continuous differentiation in performance, with stable operational assets. The report anticipates steady growth in net profits for various segments in 2025, with specific companies showing significant year-on-year increases [2][3]. - Municipal water services are stable, benefiting from strategic expansions and water price adjustments, while the demand for sewage engineering is declining [2]. - The waste incineration sector is also stable, with operational improvements despite a slowdown in new projects and tenders. Different companies are experiencing varied profit growth due to factors like historical revenue recognition and depreciation [2][3]. - The sanitation market remains stable, with profit growth influenced by impairment and the introduction of automated sanitation orders [2]. - Equipment products are facing a widening performance gap due to varying impacts from downstream sectors, with some companies expected to see declines in net profit growth [2]. Summary by Segment Municipal Water Services - Overall operations are stable, with net profit growth expected to be steady in 2025. Key companies include: - Zhongshan Public Utilities: 2025 net profit expected to increase by 67% to 2,000 million [3]. - Jiangnan Water: 3% increase to 415 million [3]. - Xingrong Environment: 8% increase to 2,150 million [3]. - Hongcheng Environment: 1% increase to 1,200 million [3]. Waste Incineration - The sector is stable with operational improvements. Key companies include: - Green Power: 23% increase to 720 million [3]. - Hanlan Environment: 20% increase to 2,000 million [3]. - Junxin Co.: 49% increase to 800 million [3]. Sanitation - The market is stable, with profit growth influenced by impairment and automation. Key companies include: - Yingfeng Environment: 36% increase to 700 million [3]. - Yuhua Tian: 4% increase to 600 million [3]. Equipment Products - Performance varies significantly across companies. Key companies include: - Longjing Environmental: 32% increase to 1,100 million [3]. - Qinda Environmental: 88% increase to 175 million [3]. - Woton Technology: 26% increase to 250 million [3]. Investment Recommendations - Municipal Environmental: Stable profitability with improving cash flow and opportunities in environmental assets. Recommended companies include Zhongshan Public Utilities, Junxin Co., Hanlan Environment, and others [2]. - Automated Sanitation: Growth potential in the field of sanitation robots. Recommended companies include Yingfeng Environment and Yuhua Tian [2]. - Green Methanol and SAF: Benefiting from EU policies, with recommended companies including CIMC Anrui and others [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the carbon trading market and related sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment for companies involved in power generation and environmental protection [2][9]. Core Insights - The carbon market in China is expanding, with a cumulative trading volume of 865 million tons and a total transaction value of 57.663 billion yuan as of December 31, 2025. The trading volume for the year increased by approximately 24% year-on-year, although the average transaction price fell by 19.23% to 62.36 yuan per ton [2][6]. - The report highlights the government's commitment to carbon reduction, transitioning from energy control to carbon control, which is expected to create investment opportunities in the environmental sector [9]. - Natural gas prices have decreased due to a combination of supply-demand dynamics and seasonal factors, with significant price drops observed in various markets, including a 39.20% decrease in the Henry Hub spot price [2][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The carbon trading market is projected to continue expanding, with key emission units increasing awareness of carbon reduction. The number of units under management reached 3,378, with significant representation from the power, steel, cement, and aluminum industries [2][6]. - Recommendations for investment include companies with stable revenue sources such as Guodian Power, Inner Mongolia Huadian, and China Huaneng, which benefit from diversified income streams [9][11]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - Natural gas prices have seen a significant decline, with the Henry Hub spot price at $4.37/mmBtu, reflecting a 39.20% week-on-week drop. The report notes that the supply-demand balance is improving, contributing to this price decrease [2][12]. - Investment recommendations include companies like Kunlun Energy and New Hope Energy, which are expected to benefit from lower upstream resource costs and improved sales volumes [34][35]. 3. Market Performance Review - The report indicates that the power equipment and gas sectors outperformed the broader market during the review period from February 2 to February 6, 2026 [37]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent regulatory updates include the National Development and Reform Commission's notification on improving the capacity pricing mechanism for coal and gas power generation, which aims to enhance revenue recovery for power plants [39][40]. - Key company announcements include performance forecasts from major players like Datang Power and Shanghai Electric, indicating significant year-on-year profit growth [41]. 5. Valuation Tables - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the utility sector, with several companies rated as "Buy," indicating strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [43][44].

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes its commitment to shareholder returns and will develop a suitable profit distribution plan based on operational performance and future funding needs [1] Group 1 - The company reported a significant positive shift in free cash flow this year, with major ongoing projects expected to commence operations within the year [1] - The company acknowledges investor concerns regarding the difficulty in obtaining information about this year's dividend plan, contrasting with other state-owned enterprises that have announced their dividend plans for the next three years [1] - The company assures that it will fulfill its information disclosure obligations in accordance with regulations if any significant matters arise [1]

—高能环境(603588)公司深度报告 进军矿业开采&赴港上市，资源化龙头扬帆起航 证券研究报告 公司研究 2026 年 2 月 4 日 [Table_CoverAuthor] 郭雪 环保公用联席首席分析师 吴柏莹 环保行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525030002 执业编号：S1500524100001 邮箱：guoxue@cindasc.com 邮箱：wuboying@cindasc.com [公司深度报告 Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 高能环境(603588) 投资评级 买入 上次评级 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅 大厦B座 邮编：100031 [高能Table_T 环境：itle]进军矿业开采&赴港上市，资源化龙头扬帆起 航 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 2 月 4 日 本期内容提要: [Table_S [Table_Summary ummary] ] ➢ 行情回顾：截至 5月 9日收盘，水治理板块上涨 3.75%，水务板块上 涨 1.79%；大气 ...

Investment Recommendations - Key companies recommended for investment include Longjing Environmental Protection, High Energy Environment, Sains, Hanlan Environment, Green Power Environmental Protection, and others [1] Companies to Watch - Companies suggested for attention include Dayu Water Saving, Lian Tai Environmental Protection, Wang Neng Environment, and others [2] Company Tracking - Jingjin Equipment is a leader in filter press with a market share of over 40%, and its new energy revenue is expected to grow as the lithium battery market recovers [3] - Longjing Environmental Protection has begun delivering pure electric mining trucks, with a projected domestic sales volume of 2,500 units in 2024 [3] - Sains is benefiting from rising rhenium prices driven by aerospace demand, with a rhenium price of 39.26 million yuan/ton expected by January 2026 [3] - High Energy Environment's performance exceeded expectations, driven by improvements in resource recycling profitability and strategic expansion into upstream mining [3] Event Tracking - The Shanghai Old Port Eco-Environmental Base has launched green methanol, marking a significant advancement in carbon utilization technology [4] Strategic Outlook for 2026 - The strategy emphasizes value and growth resonance, focusing on marketization and efficiency improvements in the solid waste sector [5] - Key recommendations include Hanlan Environment, Green Power, and others for their potential in dividend growth and operational efficiency [5] Industry Tracking - The sanitation equipment sector is seeing significant growth, with a 150% increase in unmanned sanitation project bids and a 71% increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles [7] - The market for biofuels remains stable, with prices for kitchen waste oil increasing by 100 yuan/ton [8] - Lithium battery recycling is experiencing price fluctuations, with carbonated lithium prices down by 6.2% as of January 30, 2026 [8]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the electricity and natural gas sectors, highlighting stable revenue mechanisms and growth potential in consumption and pricing [1][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of a refined capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and ensure fair compensation for various power sources [4][6]. - It notes that natural gas consumption is expected to grow, supported by favorable weather conditions and improved economic indicators, despite short-term price fluctuations [10][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity: Improved Capacity Pricing Mechanism - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for electricity generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new power system [4]. - The new mechanism aims to ensure that different types of power generation, including coal, gas, and new energy sources, receive fair compensation based on their peak supply capabilities [6][7]. - The report highlights that the refined pricing structure will lead to more predictable revenue for power generation companies, reducing volatility in earnings [7]. 2. Natural Gas: Continued Growth in Consumption - The report indicates that the apparent consumption of natural gas in China is projected to grow by 0.1% in 2025, with December consumption reaching 38.57 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [29]. - It notes that the recent cold weather has supported high natural gas prices, with the U.S. Henry Hub spot price at $7.18/mmBtu, while European prices remain elevated due to low inventory levels and geopolitical tensions [10][12]. - The report suggests that the natural gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved pricing mechanisms, leading to a recovery in profitability for city gas companies [31]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For coal-fired power, companies like Guodian Power and Inner Mongolia Huadian are recommended due to their stable revenue sources [8]. - Hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation are highlighted for their potential to improve profit margins through reduced capital expenditures [8]. - In the nuclear sector, China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are suggested for their growth potential as new units are approved [8]. - The report also recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies like ENN Energy and China Gas Holdings, which are expected to benefit from lower costs and increased sales [31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, indicating a favorable investment environment due to policy improvements and market dynamics [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent improvements in the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to stabilize revenue and enhance the profitability of various power sources [6][10]. - It notes a slight increase in natural gas consumption in 2025, with a projected growth of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable demand outlook for the gas sector [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector: Capacity Pricing Mechanism Improvement - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have issued a notification to enhance the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, addressing mismatches in supply and demand within the new energy system [6]. - The new mechanism introduces differentiated pricing for various types of regulatory power sources, ensuring that their capacity value is adequately compensated [7]. - A unified compensation standard for peak capacity across different power sources is established, promoting rational investment and resource allocation in the power sector [8][10]. 2. Gas Sector: Continued Growth in Natural Gas Consumption - Natural gas consumption in China is expected to reach 385.7 billion cubic meters by December 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [32]. - The report emphasizes the impact of cold weather on gas prices, with global prices remaining high, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, which supports the profitability of gas companies [13][19]. - The report suggests that the gas sector will benefit from a combination of lower costs and improved demand, particularly for city gas companies, with recommendations for several key players in the market [34]. 3. Weekly Market Review - The report notes that the public utility, power, gas, and environmental sectors underperformed relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the week of January 24 to January 30, 2026 [36]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.89 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, with significant growth in solar and wind power installations [43]. - The report includes various company announcements, highlighting performance forecasts and operational updates from key players in the energy sector [44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is expected to grow by 44% year-on-year in 2025, with the construction of zero-carbon parks accelerating hydrogen demand [19][23]. - The report highlights the government's commitment to promoting green hydrogen development and application, with a focus on establishing zero-carbon factories in key industries by 2027 [19][20]. - The hydrogen energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with a projected increase in the scale of electrolyzer projects by 156% in 2025 [26]. Market Performance - As of January 30, the environmental sector has underperformed the broader market, declining by 2.78% compared to a 0.44% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [3][11]. - Specific sub-sectors within the environmental industry, such as water management and waste treatment, have also seen declines, with the waste management sector down by 6.06% [14][17]. Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, along with other departments, has issued guidelines for the management of ecological industrial parks, emphasizing low-carbon and high-quality development [31]. - A new draft regulation on industrial water conservation has been proposed, encouraging large industrial enterprises to establish water management systems [33]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the energy-saving and environmental protection sectors, along with resource recycling, are likely to maintain high levels of prosperity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [47]. - Key companies recommended for investment include: Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention suggested for companies like Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co. [47].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector, consistent with the previous rating [2]. Core Insights - The production of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles is expected to grow by 44% year-on-year in 2025, with the construction of zero-carbon parks accelerating hydrogen demand [2][19]. - The report highlights the government's commitment to promoting green hydrogen development and applications, with a focus on establishing zero-carbon factories in key industries by 2027 [19][30]. - The hydrogen energy sector is experiencing significant growth, with a projected increase in the scale of electrolyzer projects by 156% in 2025, indicating a robust demand for green hydrogen [26][30]. Market Performance - As of January 30, the environmental sector has underperformed the broader market, declining by 2.78%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44% [3][11]. - The report notes that various sub-sectors within the environmental industry have shown mixed performance, with water management and waste treatment sectors experiencing declines [14][17]. Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment, along with other departments, has issued guidelines for the management of ecological industrial parks, emphasizing low-carbon and high-quality development [3][31]. - Recent policies aim to establish a water-saving management system for industrial enterprises, encouraging the installation of online measurement facilities for water usage [33][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the energy-saving and environmental protection sectors, along with resource recycling, are likely to maintain high levels of prosperity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [47]. - Key investment recommendations include companies such as Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to companies like Wangneng Environment and Junxin Co [47].