煤炭周报 海外供给收缩催化内贸煤需求，煤价有望持续上涨 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 28 日 风险提示：1）下游需求不及预期；2）煤价大幅下跌；3）政策变化风险。 -10% 3% 17% 30% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/2 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 海外供给收缩催化内贸煤需求，煤价有望持续上涨。节后产地及港口煤价持续上 涨，海外方面，印尼受 RKAB 审批进度及斋月影响供应偏紧、波罗的海冰情限制 俄罗斯煤炭出口，海外市场煤炭供给扰动增强，国际煤价持续上涨，进口煤优势 不再，内贸煤需求提升，此外近期伊朗局势推升油价，伊朗作为全球第二大甲醇 生产国，其甲醇约 75%出口至中国，2025 年中国自伊朗进口甲醇数量占总进口 量的 56.6%，油化工成本抬升下，煤化工比价优势扩大，预计带动国内煤制甲醇、 煤制烯烃需求明显增长；国内方面，节前产区供给收缩，终端日耗虽有所下降， 港口库存仍超预期去化，节后供需均缓慢恢复，后续产能核减和下游复工复产节 奏加快，低库存对煤价支撑作用亦较强。海内外双重催化下，煤 ...

供给收缩叠加大宗叙事，持续看好煤炭板块表现 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 28 日 评级： 增持（维持） 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 20,999.46 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 20,568.53 | 布局弹性标的》2026-02-07 有望上行推荐弹性》2026-02-07 2026-02-02 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 202 ...

| 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601001 | 晋控煤业 | 16.95 | 1.68 | 1.01 | 1.32 | 10 | 17 | 13 | 推荐 | | 600546 | 山煤国际 | 11.79 | 1.14 | 0.67 | 1.17 | 10 | 18 | 10 | 推荐 | | 601699 | 潞安环能 | 14.89 | 0.82 | 0.74 | 1.01 | 18 | 20 | 15 | 推荐 | | 600348 | 华阳股份 | 10.09 | 0.62 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 16 | 21 | 15 | 推荐 | | 600188 | 兖矿能源 | 17.72 | 1.44 | 0.94 | 1.18 | 12 | 19 | 15 | 推荐 | | 6010 ...

行 业 研 究 4022 煤炭 2026 年 02 月 28 日 内外煤倒挂，煤价仍有上行动能 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2 月 27 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 745 元/吨，周环比 +18 元/吨，内蒙古、山西、陕西产地价持平。截至 2 月 27 日，动力 煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量 491.4 万吨，环比+51.5 万吨，年同比 +11.7%。本周电厂日耗大涨，电厂库存微跌，动力煤库存指数微跌， 秦港库存小涨，截至 2 月 9 日，动力煤库存指数为 173.6（-0.6）。非 电方面，甲醇、尿素开工率分别为 92.8%（持平）和 93.2%（持 平），仍处于历史同期偏高水平。 焦煤 截至 2 月 27 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1660 元/吨，周环比持平， 山西产地价大跌，河南产地价持平、安徽产地价格持平。截至 2 月 27 日，523 家样本矿山精煤日均产量 64.9 万吨（+19 万吨），年同比- 11.4%，523 家样本矿山精煤库存 264.7 万吨（-2.5 万吨），年同比- 30.6%；截至 2 月 27 日，中国日均铁水产量 257.7 万吨（+6 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 2月27日，晋控煤业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司财务管理方面，建立了规范 的内控管理、财务管理等相关制度，保障财务运作合规高效。 ...

2025年11月以来，印尼煤炭领域关于2026年产量配额下降、征收出口关税政策等新闻不断，特别是2026 年2月4日煤炭资源网报道，印尼煤炭矿企因产量配额削减暂停煤炭现货出口，市场关注度大幅提升。过 去5年印尼煤炭生产、出口政策总体宽松，仅在2022年初限制出口。 2022VS2026：政策演变、煤炭行业和股票市场变化的异同 煤炭进出口：2022年初印尼煤炭出口禁令主要影响1-2月(前2月出口量累计同比-38.7%)，此后逐步恢复 正常。船运数据显示2026年1月印尼海运煤炭出口量同比-2.5%，环比-23.8%，2月前2周印尼发运往全球 的煤炭量仍在下降，部分矿商暂停现货出口发运影响预计在2月以后开始显现。而我国从印尼进口煤炭 量与印尼煤炭出口量变化趋势总体一致，但滞后约1个月。 智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，2025年底至2026年初，印尼煤炭领域政策吹风不断，印尼煤 炭矿企因产量配额削减暂停煤炭现货出口备受市场关注。价格端，相比较2022年同期，2026年以来海外 动力煤现货价格涨幅较高，焦煤期货价格延续偏弱，商品市场并未交易印尼煤减量对焦煤有实际影响。 目前，国内煤炭基本面整体好于去年同期， ...

Market Overview - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,147.23, up by 0.72% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.29%, closing at 14,475.87 [4] Coal Industry Analysis - The coal industry report highlights the impact of rising overseas coal prices on domestic coal prices, indicating a need for close monitoring [5][6] - Domestic thermal coal prices are stabilizing with a slight adjustment, as production decreases due to increased holiday shutdowns in coal mines. The spot price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region was reported at 717 CNY/ton, with a weekly change of +0.70% [9] - Coking coal prices remained stable, with the main coking coal price at 1,660 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous week [9] - The report suggests that supply will gradually recover post-holiday, and attention should be paid to downstream replenishment demand and market recovery [9] Company Analysis: DingTong Technology (688668.SH) - DingTong Technology forecasts a revenue of 1.59 billion CNY for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 54.4%, and a net profit of 240 million CNY, up by 119.6% [12] - The company is experiencing significant growth in high-speed communication products, with expectations for 112G product shipments to exceed 2 million units monthly by 2026 [12] - The production capacity for communication connectors is set to increase significantly following the issuance of convertible bonds, with an additional annual capacity of 12 million connectors and 20 million precision structural components [12] - The report anticipates a rapid increase in the penetration rate of liquid cooling solutions for optical modules, with production capacity expected to reach 780,000 units annually [12] - The automotive connector segment is also expected to grow, with a focus on BMS projects, and an anticipated increase in production capacity of 344,000 units [12] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the loosening of the US dollar credit system may lead to a revaluation of physical assets, benefiting companies in the coal sector such as Guanghui Energy and others [9] - For coking coal, companies like Panjiang Coal and Shanxi Coking Coal are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9] - In the thermal coal sector, companies such as Yanzhou Coal, Shanxi International Energy, and China Shenhua are recommended for consideration [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the coal industry, indicating an expected price increase exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% [2][78]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of rising overseas coal prices on domestic coal prices, particularly due to supply constraints and adjustments in the market [2][3]. - Domestic thermal coal prices are stabilizing amid reduced production as many coal mines announce holiday shutdowns during the Spring Festival [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor downstream replenishment demand and market recovery following the holiday period [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The coal industry has shown a stable adjustment in prices, with the reference price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region at 717 RMB/ton, reflecting a weekly change of +0.70% as of February 13 [3]. - The Qinhuangdao port thermal coal closing price reached 718 RMB/ton, with a weekly increase of +3.31% [3]. 2. Dynamic Data Tracking 2.1 Thermal Coal - Supply has contracted, leading to price adjustments. The total coal inventory at nine ports in the Bohai Rim is 23.662 million tons, with a weekly decrease of -0.7% [3][4]. 2.2 Metallurgical Coal - Most coal mines are on holiday, resulting in stable market prices. The price for main coking coal at the Jingtang port is 1,660 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [4]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from the revaluation of physical assets, such as Guohui Energy, and recommends attention to specific firms in both thermal and metallurgical coal sectors [6].

叶如祯 长江证券分析师: 尊敬的各位投资人，欢迎大家下午收听由这个长安金属煤炭举办的如何展望节后金属煤炭 行情的这个专题会议。那么核心还是节中的话，整体的这个，包括海外资产，包括其实商 品资产，也都出现了比较积极的这个大幅的这个波动。所以，这个长安金属煤炭联合还是 希望在节前去做一个这个观点的展望，以及整个 2~3 月份的这个配置的这样的一个策略。 我这边是这个贵金属叶如珍，然后主要是先更新一下这个黄金和白银的这个假期内的这个 情境。那么假期中，其实核心的线索主要还是这个特朗普和最高法院的这个司法战，触发 的这个避险情绪。 那么带动的贵金属的行情进一步的这个上行，那么触发的这个时点，其实主要是源于 2 月 20 日，这个美国最高法院对这个特朗普裁定这个从动无无权限。在非紧急特殊状态下实施 全面广泛这个性关税。那么在这个裁决之后，特朗普又基于这个 1974 年的这个贸易法案 的第 122 条。立即这个征收了这个 10%的这个全球的关税，那么有效期为 150 天。这一 来一回，直接我们讲导致了这个美元和美债利率的走弱，那么从而，一一方面催生了这个 整体这个美国经济预期的扰动。 另外一方面，还是主要是这个贸易情绪的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slow recovery in domestic coal supply and an expected reduction in imports, which is anticipated to support continued increases in coal prices [1]. - As of February 13, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port showed increases, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades rising by 23, 25, and 23 RMB/ton respectively [1]. - The report notes that the average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 4.54% week-on-week, while the outflow rose by 14.42% [1]. - The report suggests that the current tight supply conditions, coupled with increased demand from downstream sectors, will likely sustain coal prices in the near term [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The State Council issued guidelines on improving the national unified electricity market system, aiming for significant market participation by 2030 and full establishment by 2035 [8]. - Safety production measures in coal mines are being emphasized, with a focus on intelligent operations and strict enforcement of safety regulations [8]. Price Trends - Domestic thermal coal prices remained stable, with specific grades reporting no change in price [9][11]. - International thermal coal prices showed slight increases, with Indonesian coal prices rising by 1.2% [10]. Inventory and Supply - The Bohai Rim ports reported a decrease in coal inventory, with a total of 24.15 million tons as of February 14, 2026, down 1.96% from the previous week [21]. - The report indicates that the number of vessels anchored at the Bohai Rim ports decreased, reflecting tighter supply conditions [21]. Freight Rates - Domestic coastal freight rates decreased by 2.90%, while international freight rates showed mixed trends [28]. Company Valuation - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [33].