证券分析师 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 晨会纪要（2026/02/25） 崔健 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.25） 固定收益研究 成交规模微增，信用利差多数收窄——信用债周报 行业研究 美国关税政策再生变，对华关税迎边际下降——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/02/25） 固定收益研究 成交规模微增，信用利差多数收窄——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（2 月 9 日至 2 月 15 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数下行，整体变化幅度为-4 BP 至 0 BP。 本期信用债发行规模环比下降，企业债保持零发行，其余品种发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比减少， 企业债净融资额增加，其余品种净融资额减少，企业债、短期融资券净融资额为负，其余品种净融资额为 正 ...

研 行 行业周报 业 美国关税政策再生变，对华关税迎边际下降 ——轻工制造&纺织服饰行业周报 | 究 | 分析师： | 袁艺博 | SAC | NO： | S1150521120002 | 2026 | 年 02 | 月 24 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 轻工制造 纺织服饰 | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | | | 行业要闻  | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 | | （1）美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府大规模关税政策违法。 | | | | | | | | | 袁艺博 | | | | | | | | | | | yuanyb@bhzq.com 022-23839135 | | （2）特朗普新加征关税税率加码至 | | 15%。 | | | | | | | 研子究行助业理评级 | | 重要公司公告  | | | | | | | | 证 | 家居用品 造纸 | 中性 中性 | （1）探路者：公司拟对 万股股权激励。 72 | | 名员工进行 672.68 | | ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company Overview - **Company**: 裕同科技 (Yutong Technology) - **Industry**: Packaging and Consumer Electronics Key Points and Arguments Market Valuation and Growth Potential - The company is projected to reach a market valuation of over 500 billion in one year, driven by a fundamental profit of approximately 19 to 22 billion in 2026-2027, excluding stock incentive costs and external profit consolidation [1] - The valuation is expected to transition towards 20 times earnings by 2026, with a potential shift to 23-25 times price-to-earnings ratio (PE) after the September semi-annual report [1] Business Segments and Revenue Growth - The Packaging 1 business is expected to provide a basic return rate of 15+4, while the external N business offers growth stock attributes [1] - The company anticipates a compound revenue growth rate of over 10% in the future, with external growth potentially reaching around 15% [2] - The consumer electronics segment, which accounts for 60% of revenue, is expected to experience a hardware innovation cycle from 2026 to 2028, driving revenue growth back to over 10% [2] Profitability and Cost Management - Continuous optimization of the business structure in consumer electronics and large consumer sectors is leading to improved gross margins, with overseas operations yielding 10 percentage points higher margins than domestic [2] - The company is expected to achieve a compound profit growth rate of over 15% [2] Dividend Policy - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 70% from 2026 to 2028, with a current dividend yield of over 4.5% [2] External Business Development - The N business, which involves non-packaging operations around packaging clients, is expected to leverage the AI+ era from 2026 to 2028, contributing approximately 0.5 billion in external profits by 2026-2027 [2] - Historical examples include partnerships that increased average selling prices (ASP) significantly, indicating potential for future high-value hardware in AI applications [2] Market Recognition and Valuation Upside - If the market recognizes the company's value as an AI+ hardware supplier, there is potential for the valuation to rise to 23-25 times PE [2]

| 指数 涨跌 (%) | | --- | | 名称 | | 上证指数 4082 -1.26 -1.37 0.41 | | 深证综指 2680 -1.05 0.16 1.16 | | 风格指数 (%) | | | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 11.32 | | 中盘指数 1.78 | 26.74 | | 小盘指数 | 19.55 | | 涨幅居前 行业(%) | 昨日 | 近１个月 近６个月 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 摩托车及其 114 | 3.01 | -2.59 | 2.47 | | 影视院线 | 2.7 | 15.61 | 28.26 | | 海小 | 2.5 | 1.64 | 11.89 | | 综合II | 2.06 | 11.75 | 55.72 | | 航海装备Ⅱ | 1.87 | 3.91 | -0.69 | | 跌幅居卸 行业(%) | | 昨日 近１个月 近６个月 | | | 玻璃玻纤 | -4.69 | 30.4 | 65.53 | | 工业金属 | -3.82 | 0.19 | ୧୦ ବଟ | | 小尖属工 | -3.8 | 12.8 ...

Group 1: Weichuang Electric / Automation Equipment - The company is strengthening collaborations to promote technological innovation and market expansion in the robot-driven component business [4] - Plans to establish a joint venture in Thailand with Zhejiang Rongtai to expand the smart robot electromechanical integration market, with both parties holding 50% shares [4] - The company aims to deepen industry demand and continue global expansion, focusing on regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America while enhancing product offerings [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.977 billion, 2.444 billion, and 3.108 billion yuan, with net profits of 288 million, 346 million, and 419 million yuan respectively [6] Group 2: Lenovo Group / Computer Equipment - Lenovo reported FY2026Q3 revenue of approximately 22.204 billion USD, an 18% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 546 million USD, down 21% year-on-year [7][8] - The adjusted net profit increased by 36% year-on-year, driven by efficiency optimization and a high-end product mix [8] - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) is undergoing strategic restructuring, expected to accelerate the return to profitability in FY2027 [9] Group 3: Shipping and Ports Industry - National import and export total reached 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, with a 3.8% year-on-year growth [13] - Container throughput at major coastal ports reached 31.198 million TEUs, a 7% year-on-year increase [15] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 135.95% year-on-year, indicating a significant increase in dry bulk shipping rates [19] Group 4: Google-A / Overseas - Google reported Q4 2025 revenue of 113.828 billion USD, an 18% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 33.455 billion USD, up 30% year-on-year [25] - Search advertising revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, driven by AI innovations enhancing user experience and monetization efficiency [26] - Google Cloud revenue surged by 48% year-on-year, reaching 17.7 billion USD, with a significant increase in annual recurring revenue [27] Group 5: Yutong Technology / Packaging Printing - The company plans to acquire 51% of Huayan Technology for 449 million yuan, aiming to enhance its capabilities in precision manufacturing [32][34] - The acquisition is expected to leverage industry synergies and empower the second growth curve, focusing on high-profile clients like Google and Samsung [34] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 19.069 billion, 21.001 billion, and 23.077 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.608 billion, 1.798 billion, and 1.980 billion yuan respectively [34] Group 6: NetEase-S / Gaming - NetEase reported Q4 2025 revenue of 27.5 billion yuan, a 3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 6.2 billion yuan, down 28.8% year-on-year [36][37] - The gaming segment showed resilience with a revenue of 22 billion yuan, driven by strong performance from popular IPs and new game launches [38] - The company is focusing on AI-driven strategies to enhance operational efficiency and optimize its business structure [39] Group 7: Aidi Pharmaceutical / Biopharmaceuticals - The company is advancing its international product launch and received GMP certification from Tanzania, facilitating entry into the African market [43] - Revenue for 2025 is projected at 721 million yuan, a 72.57% year-on-year increase, with a focus on HIV innovative drug sales [43] - Multiple new drug pipelines are actively progressing, with significant clinical trial approvals received [44] Group 8: Meituan-W / Local Life Services - Meituan is projected to achieve total revenue of 916 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a core local business revenue of 648 billion yuan, reflecting a competitive landscape [45][46] - The company is strategically increasing investments in marketing and rider incentives to enhance operational efficiency amid fierce competition [46] - Long-term growth potential is anticipated through refined operations in instant delivery and overseas expansion [49] Group 9: Huahong Semiconductor / Semiconductors - Huahong Semiconductor reported Q4 2025 revenue of 660 million USD, a 22.4% year-on-year increase, with a wafer shipment of 1.45 million pieces [50]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Pulp and Paper, Real Estate, Metal Cans, New Consumption, Tobacco, Personal Care, AI Applications, Pet Industry - **Key Trends**: Positive cyclical expectations, price increases in pulp, recovery in real estate transactions, and growth in various consumer sectors Key Points Pulp and Paper Industry - **Price Increases**: March pulp prices continue to rise strongly, with Suzano reporting an increase of $20 per ton in China [1] - **Supply Chain Issues**: Indonesia's revocation of forestry licenses affects the supply of hardwood pulp chips, compounded by APP's announcement of delays in the second phase of OKI production [1] - **Investment Recommendations**: Continued recommendations for companies such as Sun Paper, Nine Dragons, and Xianhe, with a focus on potential growth in the sector [1] Real Estate Sector - **Market Recovery**: Improvement in second-hand housing transactions, with the National Bureau of Statistics reporting a narrowing decline in housing prices across 70 cities [1] - **Top Picks**: Recommended companies include Kuka, Hanhai, with expectations for recovery in brands like Gongniu, Oppein, and others [1] Metal Can Industry - **Aluminum Price Adjustment**: Recent pullback in aluminum prices is beneficial for profit release, with a bottom recommendation for Aorikin and attention on Baosteel and Shengxing [1] New Consumption Sector - **Core Products**: Many core products have entered the layout phase, with various brands launching new items and maintaining high store traffic during the Spring Festival [2] - **Tobacco Market**: British American Tobacco reports rapid market share growth in Poland, with a recommendation for Smoore as a core stock [2] - **Personal Care Growth**: Brands like Leshushi and Baia are experiencing significant growth, with new product launches and marketing strategies enhancing their market positions [2] AI Applications - **Smart Glasses Sales**: Kangnait's smart glasses are projected to exceed 7 million units in sales for the year, with ongoing attention to order progress [2] - **Acquisition Plans**: Yudong plans to acquire 51% of Huayan Technology, extending its reach into precision components and AI glasses [2] Pet Industry - **Market Recovery**: The pet industry saw a recovery in January with an overall growth of 18%, with specific brands like Guibao and Zhongchong showing significant increases [3] Cross-Border Trade - **Tariff Changes**: Recent tariff adjustments are favorable, with a 5% reduction in the overall tax rate benefiting cross-border enterprises, particularly focusing on companies like Zhiou and Henglin [3]

Group 1: IEEPA Tariff Legal Ruling - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA tariffs are illegal, primarily due to violations of the clear authorization principle and significant issues principle [9] - The tariffs affected include a 20% tariff on fentanyl from China, 25% on Canada and Mexico, and global equivalent tariffs [9] - The likelihood of full refunds for the tariffs is low, but partial refunds are more probable, depending on how lower courts handle the relief scope [9] Group 2: Food and Beverage Industry Insights - The overall sales volume in the food and beverage industry during the 2026 Spring Festival decreased by 10%-20%, slightly better than market expectations [10] - High-end liquor brands like Moutai and Wuliangye showed significant sales growth, with Moutai's sales expected to increase by over 30% year-on-year [12] - The industry is entering a significant destocking phase, with first-tier brands' inventory levels notably lower than the previous year [12] Group 3: Health and Nutrition Industry Trends - The health and nutrition sector is experiencing structural growth, with the market size reaching over 100 billion yuan, significantly outpacing traditional food sectors [15] - The company West Health is transitioning from agency operations to a multi-brand strategy, establishing itself as a leader in the sports nutrition and functional food segments [11] - Revenue and profit for West Health are on a stable growth trajectory, with net profit increasing from 94 million yuan in 2023 to 149 million yuan in 2025 [13] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Developments - Huahong Semiconductor reported a revenue of $659.9 million for Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, with a gross margin of 13% [19] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with a focus on enhancing its 12-inch wafer production capabilities through the acquisition of Huali Microelectronics [19] - The demand for embedded non-volatile memory products is increasing, driven by the rise in MCU and smart card needs [19] Group 5: Shipping and Transportation Sector - The VLCC freight rates surged by 24% to $146,385 per day during the Spring Festival, indicating strong demand in the oil shipping market [20] - The shipping market is expected to continue its upward trend, with tight capacity and strong demand forecasts for March [20] - The overall energy chain valuation is rising, with long-term cycles influencing high vessel utilization rates [20]

原标题：十分钟再谈预制菜之十八——国标出台，预制菜"涨潮"，包装产业"弄潮"？ 一、一个盒子的远征 一位山东母亲从快递箱里取出从佛山寄来的"佛跳墙"预制菜礼盒。撕开保温袋，翻开硬质卡盒，掀开铝 箔封口，一盅鲍鱼海参，静静躺在定制瓷盅里。十五分钟后，金汤翻滚，满屋馥郁。 二、买椟还珠，从另一个角度是对还是错？ 两千年前，楚人卖珠，"为木兰之柜，熏以桂椒，缀以珠玉"。结果呢？郑人买其椟，还其珠。 韩非子讲这个故事，本意是讽喻世人舍本逐末。但站在今天往回看，我们会发现，那个楚人才是真正的 商业天才。因为他懂得，消费者打开包装之前，对产品全部的想象，都来自那个盒子。郑人不是蠢，他 是被那个盒子征服了。这个故事，对预制菜包装有啥启发？ 2026年，全球食品包装市场规模预计达4823.8亿美元，同比增长约5.5%。亚太地区以超过40%的份额成 为全球最大市场，中国是其中最大的引擎。 但这只是数字。数字背后，是每一天十几亿次的开箱体验，是每一餐饭从工厂到餐桌的漫长旅程，是每 一道预制菜从"能吃"到"好吃"的最后一道防线。 包装产业的价值，并不完全体现在产值规模上，也体现在风险控制能力上。如果没有可靠的包装结构， 冷链中的温 ...

一、一个盒子的远征 一位山东母亲从快递箱里取出从佛山寄来的"佛跳墙"预制菜礼盒。撕开保温袋，翻开硬质卡盒，掀开铝 箔封口，一盅鲍鱼海参，静静躺在定制瓷盅里。十五分钟后，金汤翻滚，满屋馥郁。 孩子问：妈，这盅留着吗？ 母亲说：留着。 那个印着品牌Logo的瓷盅，从年夜饭桌转移到茶几上，成了装瓜子的容器。几个月后，它可能会出现 在孩子的大学宿舍里，成了书桌上的笔筒。 一个瓷盅的远征，比一道菜走得更远。 这就是包装，以及它的力量。 二、买椟还珠，从另一个角度是对还是错？ 两千年前，楚人卖珠，"为木兰之柜，熏以桂椒，缀以珠玉"。结果呢？郑人买其椟，还其珠。 韩非子讲这个故事，本意是讽喻世人舍本逐末。但站在今天往回看，我们会发现，那个楚人才是真正的 商业天才。因为他懂得，消费者打开包装之前，对产品全部的想象，都来自那个盒子。郑人不是蠢，他 是被那个盒子征服了。 这个故事，对预制菜包装有啥启发？ 2026年，全球食品包装市场规模预计达4823.8亿美元，同比增长约5.5%。亚太地区以超过40%的份额成 为全球最大市场，中国是其中最大的引擎。 但这只是数字。 数字背后，是每一天十几亿次的开箱体验，是每一餐饭从工厂到餐桌的漫 ...

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