Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the market benchmark in the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a continued decline in real estate sales, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 7.8% in sales area and 11.1% in sales revenue for the first eleven months of 2025 [2][11]. - The report notes that the decline in real estate investment has widened, with a 15.9% year-on-year decrease in development investment, and a 20.5% drop in new construction area [3][19]. - Funding for real estate has also decreased, with total funds available to developers down by 11.9% year-on-year, and domestic loans showing a negative year-on-year change of 2.5% [4][21]. - The report emphasizes the need for policy support to stabilize the real estate market, with expectations for new policies to be introduced in 2026 to boost demand [5]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - In the first eleven months of 2025, the total sales area reached 790 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 7.8%. The sales revenue amounted to 7.5 trillion yuan, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year decrease [2][11]. - In November 2025 alone, the sales area was 67 million square meters, down 17.3% year-on-year, while sales revenue was 610 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year [2]. Investment Data - Real estate development investment totaled 7.9 trillion yuan in the first eleven months of 2025, down 15.9% year-on-year. The new construction area was 530 million square meters, reflecting a 20.5% decline [3][19]. - The construction area was 6.56 billion square meters, down 9.4% year-on-year, and the completed area was 390 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year [3][21]. Funding Data - The total funds available to real estate companies were 8.5 trillion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year. Domestic loans accounted for 1.3 trillion yuan, showing a 2.5% decline [4][21]. - Self-raised funds were 3.1 trillion yuan, down 11.9%, and personal mortgage loans were 1.2 trillion yuan, down 15.1% [4]. Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market as a key task for 2026, with potential policies to reduce housing costs and stimulate demand [5]. - The report suggests focusing on three areas for investment: commercial real estate, second-hand brokerage, and property services, along with quality developers [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the real estate sector, indicating low financial risk and persistent economic pressure for 2026, with no expectation of systemic financial risks [1][61]. Core Insights - The real estate sector is expected to provide a favorable environment in 2026, continuing the trends observed in 2025, with a focus on financial stability [1][61]. - Key companies to watch include: 1) Development: A-Shares - China Vanke, Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, Gemdale; H-Shares - China Overseas Land & Investment 2) Residential and Commercial: Longfor Group 3) Property Management: Onewo, China Resources Mixc, China Overseas Property, Poly Property, China Merchants Property, ChongQing New DaZheng 4) Cultural and Tourism: Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town [1][61]. Summary by Sections Investment Trends - In 2025, the cumulative development investment decreased by 15.9% compared to 2024, with a significant drop in new construction area by 20.5% and sales value by 11.1% [5][10]. - The report highlights a monthly decline in development investment of 31.4%, new construction area by 27.7%, and sales value by 26.1% [61][70]. Market Dynamics - The unsold area indicator suggests eased pressure on developers, with expectations of reduced real estate investment continuing into 2026 [62][70]. - The report indicates that the negative contribution of real estate to the macro economy may stabilize, with a projected investment decrease of approximately 1.6 trillion RMB in 2025 compared to 2024 [63][72]. Financial Sources - Total funding sources for real estate reached 8.51 trillion RMB in 2025, reflecting an 11.9% year-on-year decline [43][47]. - Domestic loans accounted for 15.44% of funding sources, with a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year [47][50].

房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 16 日 投资建议 相关研究报告 《稳地产，去库存；方向大于方式——中央经济工作 会议解读》（2025/12/12） 《房地产高质量发展方向聚焦完善制度、优化供 给、提升品质；城市更新将进入加速推进阶段—— "十五五"规划建议解读》（2025/11/3） 《受低基数以及一线城市新政影响，单月销售降幅 收窄；今年以来单月投资降幅持续扩大——房地产 行业 2025 年 9 月统计局数据点评》(2025/10/21) 《70 城新房房价环比跌幅扩大，二手房持平；时 隔一年再度出现所有城市二手房房价全部下跌的情 形——房地产行业 2025 年 9 月 70 个大中城市房价 数据点评》(2025/10/21) 《资产证券化系列报告二：从"证券化"到"通证 化"，RWA 重构资产投资逻辑》（2025/09/24） 《解密上海楼市：上海楼市周期性与结构性研究》 强于大市 房地产行业 2025 年 11 月 70 个大中城市房价数据点评 所有 70 城二手房房价连续三个月下跌；一线城市房价 环比跌幅扩大 国家统计局发布 2025 年 11 月份 70 个大中城市 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The industry continues to face downward pressure, but there is a reduction in expenditure pressure, which is expected to persist and provide a favorable financial environment for the macro economy [2] - The overall industry operation is still under downward pressure, with significant declines in development investment and sales figures [53] - The report anticipates that the real estate sector will not contribute to systemic financial risks in 2026, maintaining a favorable environment [53] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report highlights that the real estate investment for January to November 2025 has decreased by 15.9% compared to the same period in 2024, with a notable decline in sales and new construction areas [7][11] - The anticipated trends for 2026 include continued financial risk reduction and persistent economic pressure, with a focus on financial risks in the real estate sector [53] Industry Data - For January to November 2025, the cumulative development investment reached 78,591 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% [10] - The sales area of commercial housing for the same period was 787 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.8% [23] - The report notes that the total funds available for real estate development decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, indicating a tightening financial environment [39] Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: 1. Development: Vanke A, Poly Developments, China Overseas Development 2. Commercial and Residential: Longfor Group 3. Property Management: Wanwu Cloud, China Resources Mixc Life 4. Cultural Tourism: Overseas Chinese Town A [53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector and property management, highlighting potential opportunities in shopping centers and the "Good House" new track [3][4]. Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate industry continues to weaken, with significant declines in new starts and completions. For January to November 2025, total real estate investment decreased by 15.9% year-on-year, with new starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18% [3][4][19]. - The sales side shows a downward trend in sales area, sales amount, and average sales price. For the same period, the sales area fell by 7.8%, sales amount by 11.1%, and average price by 3.4% year-on-year [20][32]. - The funding side indicates a widening decline in funding sources, with total funding down by 11.9% year-on-year. In November alone, funding sources dropped by 32.5% [37]. Investment Analysis Summary Investment Side - From January to November 2025, real estate development investment totaled 785.91 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year. In November, the investment growth rate was -30.3%, a decline of 7.3 percentage points from October [4][19]. - The residential investment during the same period was 604.32 billion yuan, also down 15% year-on-year, with November showing a -29.5% growth rate [4][19]. Sales Side - The total sales area for January to November was 790 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year. In November, the sales area decreased by 17.3% [20][32]. - The total sales amount reached 7.5 trillion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with November's sales amount at 611.3 billion yuan, a 25.1% decrease [20][32]. Funding Side - Total funding sources for real estate development enterprises amounted to 850 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year. In November, the decline was 32.5% [37]. - Domestic loans decreased by 10.4% in November, while self-raised funds fell by 30.7% [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting opportunities in shopping center value reassessment and new housing tracks [4][22][39] Core Insights - The investment side of the real estate sector continues to weaken, with cumulative investment from January to November 2025 down by 15.9% year-on-year, and a significant drop of 30.3% in November alone [4][21] - The sales side is also under pressure, with cumulative sales area down by 7.8% year-on-year and a notable decline of 25.1% in November [22][35] - Funding sources are tightening, with total funding for real estate development down by 11.9% year-on-year, and a sharp decline of 32.5% in November [40] Investment Side Summary - Cumulative real estate development investment from January to November 2025 reached 785.91 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with November's single-month investment declining by 30.3% [5][21] - New construction starts fell by 20.5% year-on-year, with a 27.6% drop in November [19][21] - The report forecasts continued weakness in investment, with predictions for 2025-2026 showing construction starts down by 18.0% and total investment down by 14.2% [4][21] Sales Side Summary - Cumulative sales area for real estate from January to November 2025 was 790 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with November's sales area declining by 17.3% [22][35] - Cumulative sales revenue reached 7.5 trillion yuan, down 11.1% year-on-year, with a 25.1% drop in November [22][35] - The average selling price of properties decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with a notable decline of 9.5% in November [34][35] Funding Side Summary - Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 850 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with November showing a 32.5% decline [40] - Domestic loans decreased by 2.5% year-on-year, with a 10.4% drop in November [40] - Self-raised funds fell by 11.9% year-on-year, with a significant 30.7% decline in November [40]

强于大市 房地产行业2025 年11 月统计局数据点评 单月投资创历史最大降幅； 1-11 月销售降幅进一步扩大 国家统计局发布 2025 年 11 月份全国房地产开发投资和销售情况。11 月销售面积 6720 万平，同 比增速-17.3%（前值：-18.8%）；开发投资金额 5028 亿元，同比增速-30.3%（前值：-23.0%）； 新开工面积 4396 万平，同比增速-27.6%（前值：-29.5%）。 统计局披露同比增速说明：根据房地产开发统计制度、统计执法检查等规定，对上年同期房地产 开发投资、新建商品房销售面积等数据进行修订，增速按可比口径计算。 核心观点 房地产 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 16 日 投资建议 风险提示： 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《稳地产，去库存；方向大于方式——中央经济工 作会议解读》（2025/12/12） 《房地产高质量发展方向聚焦完善制度、优化供给、 提升品质；城市更新将进入加速推进阶段——"十 五五"规划建议解读》（2025/11/3） 《受低基数以及一线城市新政影响，单月销售降幅 收窄；今 ...

核心观点 政策 本周中央经济工作会议召开，关于房地产的表述有两部分。一部分在坚持内需主 导，建设强大国内市场中提到高质量发展城市更新。另一部分在坚持守牢底线， 积极稳妥化解重点领域风险中提到着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库 存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重点用于保障性住房等。深化住房公积金制度 改革，有序推动"好房子"建设。加快构建房地产发展新模式。 房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 12 月 16 日 房地产行业第 50 周周报（2025 年 12 月 6 日-2025 年 12 月 12 日） 新房二手房成交同比降幅收窄；中央经济工作会议提出"因城 施策去库存" 新房成交面积同环比降幅均收窄；二手房成交面积环比由负转正，同比降幅收窄；新 房库存面积环比上升、同比下降；去化周期环比下降、同比上升。 投资建议 风险提示： 政策出台不及预期；销售与房价持续下行；市场信心修复不及预期。 相关研究报告 《地产后增量时代的机遇》（2025/08/10） 《单月销售与投资降幅扩大；开竣工降幅虽收窄， 但仍处于历史低位》（2025/07/17） 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续扩大；一线城市二手 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing weak sales under high base conditions, with a trend of exchanging price for volume continuing towards the end of the year [1][5] - The overall performance of the sales market has been lackluster since the second half of the year, with a significant decline in sales data reflecting persistent market hesitation [8][33] Summary by Sections Sales Data - From January to November 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 787 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with residential sales area down 8.1% [5][14] - In November 2025, the sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable trend of price reduction to stimulate sales [5][14] Construction Data - The new construction area from January to November 2025 was 535 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, with residential new construction down 19.9% [6][19] - The completion area was 395 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on construction data [6][19] Investment Data - Real estate development investment from January to November 2025 was 7.86 trillion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with residential development investment down 15.0% [7][23] - The funds available to real estate developers were 8.51 trillion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with significant declines in various funding sources [7][25] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][35] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, are also recommended [8][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas for both new and second-hand homes have decreased year-on-year, emphasizing the need to stabilize the real estate market [3] - The overall trend in the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, supported by various policies aimed at halting the decline [8] - The report highlights that while new home prices have shown a slight decrease, the decline in second-hand home prices has remained stable [21] Summary by Sections New Housing Prices - In November 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.4%, -0.3%, and -0.4% respectively, with the overall decline in 70 cities being -0.4%, a reduction in the rate of decline compared to October [15][17] - Year-on-year, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by -1.2%, -2.2%, and -3.5%, leading to an overall year-on-year decline of 2.8% across 70 cities [15][17] Second-Hand Housing Prices - The second-hand housing prices in November 2025 saw a month-on-month decline of -0.7%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of -1.1%, -0.6%, and -0.6% respectively [21] - Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices across 70 cities decreased by -5.7%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -5.8%, -5.6%, and -5.8% respectively [21] Market Performance in Key Cities - In November 2025, new housing prices in key cities showed mixed results, with cities like Shanghai leading with a year-on-year increase of +5.1% [29][30] - The report notes that second-hand housing prices in 35 key cities have uniformly declined, with significant drops in cities like Chengdu and Hohhot [30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and good fundamentals in cities, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [8] - It also suggests companies that benefit from both residential and commercial real estate sectors, like China Resources Land and Longfor Group, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [8]