消息面上，甲骨文9日表示，随着人工智能需求的增长，2026财年云基础设施销售额将跃升77%，达到180亿美元，超出市场预期。该公司首席执行官Safra Catz表示，在随后的四年，云基础设施业务的年度营收目标将分别达到320亿美元、730亿美元、1140亿美元和1440亿美元。 甲骨文深夜大涨。 当地时间9月10日，美股三大股指早盘涨跌不一，截至发稿，道指微跌0.04%，标普500指数涨0.54%，纳指涨0.31%。 | 道琼斯指数 | 45692.89 | -0.04% | | --- | --- | --- | | .DJI | | | | 标普500指数 | 6547.71 | +0.54% | | .SPX | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 21947.21 | +0.31% | | .IXIC | | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 8185.23 | -0.55% | | .HXC | | | 经济数据方面，根据美国劳工统计局周三（10日）发布的报告，美国8月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.1%，而7月的数据被下修。同比来看，PPI上涨 2.6%。 美国8月PPI环比意外下降，进一步增强 ...

甲骨文深夜大涨。 当地时间9月10日，美股三大股指早盘涨跌不一，截至发稿，道指微跌0.04%，标普500指数涨0.54%，纳指涨0.31%。 | 道琼斯指数 | 45692.89 | -0.04% | | --- | --- | --- | | .DJI | | | | 标普500指数 | 6547.71 | +0.54% | | .SPX | | | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 21947.21 | +0.31% | | .IXIC | | | | 纳斯达克中国金龙指数 | 8185.23 | -0.55% | | .HXC | | | 经济数据方面，根据美国劳工统计局周三（10日）发布的报告，美国8月生产者价格指数（PPI）环比下降0.1%，而7月的数据被下修。同比来看，PPI上涨 2.6%。 美国8月PPI环比意外下降，进一步增强了美联储降息预期。 据央视新闻，当地时间9月10日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文再次批评美联储主席鲍威尔，并敦促立即大幅降息。特朗普写道，美国"没 有通胀"，美联储"必须立刻大幅降息"，并称鲍威尔是"一场彻底的灾难"，还表示鲍威尔"毫无头绪"。 特朗普已多次要求鲍 ...

受科技股再度上涨以及对美联储将降息提振，全球股市连续第六个交易日走高。 周三，欧股开盘集体上涨， 日韩股市均创收盘历史新高，美国股指期货同样上扬。甲骨文公司美股盘前大涨超29%，预计2026财年云基础设施营 收将增长77%，至180亿美元。台积电美股盘前涨超2%，8月销售同比增长33.8%。 投资者关注本周即将公布的美国通胀报告，将直接影响下周美联储的利率决策以及2025年的降息路径。与此同时，地缘政治风险也在抬头。据央 视新闻，当地时间9月9日，卡塔尔首都多哈北部的卡塔拉地区发生爆炸事件。以色列国防军证实其对哈马斯高级领导层实施了一次精确打击。推 高了石油价格。 聚焦美联储：就业降温与通胀考验 在下周美联储会议召开前，投资者的目光紧紧锁定本周将公布的生产者价格指数（PPI）和消费者价格指数（CPI）。这些数据被视为判断联储下 一步行动的核心依据。货币市场目前的预测是，美联储今年将进行两到三次降息。 墨尔本Capital.com的市场分析师Kyle Rodda表示： "从当前的市场风险偏好看，市场似乎相信（降息）足以保护美国经济免于衰退。但一份火热的通胀报告将使情况复杂化，迫使美联储 在劳动力市场和物价稳定之 ...

Group 1 - The Chiayi Phase II park is entering the environmental assessment stage, with TSMC committing to retain advanced technology in Taiwan, specifically planning to establish a new generation advanced packaging factory in Chiayi [1] - The environmental impact statement estimates that the companies entering the Chiayi Phase II park will generate an annual revenue of NT$210 billion [1] - As of April 2023, the Chiayi park has six approved companies and two expansion projects, achieving a land rental rate of 100% [1] Group 2 - The Chiayi Phase II park covers approximately 89.58 hectares, with 41.66 hectares designated for production and 47.92 hectares for public facilities, focusing on emerging technologies such as B5G, 6G, AI, cybersecurity, heterogeneous packaging, net-zero, and quantum technology [2] - The average water usage for the project is estimated at 40,000 CMD (tons/day), with agreements in place for water supply and plans to utilize various water sources [2] - The estimated electricity demand for the park is 338,000 kW, with consent obtained from the local power company [2] Group 3 - The construction period for the Chiayi Phase II park is expected to be around five years, with an anticipated increase of 3,500 jobs during the operational phase [3]

Group 1 - The upcoming iPhone 17 series is expected to trigger a significant upgrade wave, with nearly 70% of iPhone users in the U.S. indicating their intention to upgrade [1][2] - The iPhone 17 series will include four models: iPhone 17, iPhone 17 Air, iPhone 17 Pro, and iPhone 17 Pro Max, with the iPhone 17 Air anticipated to be the lightest iPhone ever [1][2] - The pricing strategy for the new models is expected to maintain similar entry prices to the previous generation, which is seen as a key selling point [1][2] Group 2 - The introduction of a new vibrant orange color for the iPhone 17 series aims to attract younger consumers, marking a shift from the previous cold color schemes [1][2] - In Taiwan, the market is also expected to see a surge in upgrade activity due to the expiration of three-year contracts, particularly for users of the iPhone 14 series [2][3] - The transition to USB Type-C from the Lightning port is driving upgrade intentions among users who purchased the iPhone 14, as they seek to avoid being left with outdated technology [3] Group 3 - Key suppliers such as Hon Hai (Foxconn), TSMC, and Largan Precision are expected to benefit from the anticipated upgrade cycle, with Hon Hai remaining Apple's primary assembly partner [1][3] - TSMC continues to be the exclusive manufacturer of iPhone processors, while Largan provides high-end camera modules for the new models [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock price has dropped nearly 3%, marking the first significant risk of falling below the $4 trillion market cap in two months, amid concerns over economic downturns and competition from Broadcom's AI ASIC market growth [1][9] Group 1: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia's stock has seen a decline of nearly 10% from its August peak, resulting in a market cap loss of approximately $470 billion, despite still being the highest valued company globally [9] - The company is facing increased competition from Broadcom, which has reported strong earnings and growth projections, leading to adjustments in Nvidia's long-term performance expectations by analysts [2][5] Group 2: Broadcom's Performance - Broadcom's semiconductor revenue related to AI infrastructure reached approximately $5.2 billion in Q3, with a year-over-year growth of 63%, exceeding Wall Street's expectations [4] - The company has secured over $10 billion in AI infrastructure orders from a major client, OpenAI, and anticipates a revenue growth rate of 50% to 60% for AI-related revenue in fiscal 2026 [5] Group 3: AI ASIC vs. AI GPU - AI ASIC and Nvidia's AI GPU represent two distinct technological paths in AI chips, with AI ASIC offering significant cost-effectiveness and energy efficiency advantages for large-scale cloud computing giants [3][15] - The rapid rise in demand for AI ASICs, driven by major tech companies, is expected to erode Nvidia's market share in the AI chip sector, which currently holds a 90% market share [13][15] Group 4: TSMC's Role - TSMC remains a critical player in the chip manufacturing sector, benefiting from the surge in demand for AI GPUs and ASICs, with expectations of a 30% sales growth by 2025 due to increasing AI chip orders [17][18] - The company is experiencing supply constraints in advanced packaging capacity, particularly for 5nm and below processes, which is impacting Nvidia's production capabilities [18]

Market Overview - On September 5, US stock markets experienced significant volatility, with all three major indices closing lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.48% to 45400.86 points, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.32% to 6481.50 points, and the Nasdaq Composite slightly declined by 0.03% to 21700.39 points [1][2]. Employment Data Impact - The core reason for the market shift was the release of August non-farm payroll data, which showed only 22,000 new jobs added, significantly below the expected 75,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, aligning with expectations. Notably, June's data was revised downwards, indicating the first negative growth in non-farm employment since early 2020 [3][4]. Interest Rate Expectations - Following the weak employment data, expectations for interest rate cuts surged. The market anticipates at least a 25 basis point cut from the Federal Reserve, with some traders betting on a 50 basis point reduction. Analysts from JPMorgan and Barclays have adjusted their forecasts, suggesting multiple rate cuts by the end of the year [4][5]. Sector Performance - Sector performance showed clear divergence. In technology, chip stocks generally rose, with Broadcom surging by 9.41% to a market cap of $1.575 trillion. However, Nvidia fell by 2.7% amid concerns over increased competition in the AI sector. Major tech stocks had mixed results, with Google and Facebook seeing slight gains, while Microsoft and Amazon declined [6][7]. Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks performed well, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 1.16%. Notable gainers included Fangdd, Baidu, Alibaba, and JD.com, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which may alleviate global liquidity pressures [8][9]. Other Significant Events - Other market-moving events included criticism from former President Trump regarding the EU's $3.5 billion fine on Google, and Tesla's announcement of a new compensation package for CEO Elon Musk, potentially worth $143.5 billion if certain market conditions are met. Analysts have differing views on future market trends, with some remaining optimistic about tech stocks due to AI investments, while others caution about weakening growth momentum [10].

Core Insights - Intel's CFO, Sinha, revealed that a decision regarding the future of the 1.4nm (14A) advanced process may be made next year, emphasizing TSMC as a key partner and stating that Intel will "always" collaborate with TSMC [1] - Sinha clarified that the previous statement by Intel's CEO about halting the 14A process without external customers was not a lack of confidence but a matter of financial discipline, indicating that capacity will only be created with external demand [1] - A decision on whether to continue the 14A development is expected by 2026, with potential product availability projected for 2028-2029, aiming to secure external customers during this timeframe [1] - Sinha confirmed that Intel will continue to place orders with TSMC, despite potential fluctuations in their relationship due to Intel's Integrated Device Manufacturing (IDM) strategy [1] Production Strategy - Intel considers TSMC a great partner and intends to continue utilizing TSMC's technology, with many chips, including Lunar Lake and most Arrow Lake, being outsourced [2] - The current ratio of internally produced chips to outsourced chips is 70% to 30%, with the outsourcing ratio potentially decreasing but still remaining higher than levels from a decade ago [2]

Core Insights - OpenAI is collaborating with Broadcom to develop its first custom AI ASIC chip, which will initially be used internally rather than sold to external clients [1][2][3] - OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, indicated plans to invest trillions of dollars in AI infrastructure, including chips and data centers, emphasizing the long-term importance of AI [2] - Broadcom's recent performance and future outlook highlight a surge in demand for AI ASICs, with a significant order from OpenAI exceeding $10 billion [4][7] Company Developments - OpenAI is finalizing the design architecture for its AI ASIC in collaboration with Broadcom, with plans to have it manufactured by TSMC [3] - Broadcom's CEO announced that AI-related revenue growth is expected to be stronger than previously anticipated, with a projected growth rate of 50% to 60% for fiscal year 2026 [4] - Broadcom's semiconductor revenue related to AI infrastructure reached approximately $5.2 billion, a year-over-year increase of 63% [5] Market Trends - The demand for AI ASICs is expected to continue growing, following the trend set by major tech companies like Google and Amazon [3][8] - Broadcom's strong earnings have revitalized investor confidence in the AI sector, leading to a significant increase in its stock price, which has more than doubled since April [5][7] - The AI ASIC market is anticipated to expand rapidly, potentially matching or exceeding the growth of AI GPU demand in the coming years [8][14] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are optimistic about Broadcom's stock performance, with several firms raising their target prices significantly following the company's strong earnings report [15] - The overall sentiment in the market is bullish regarding AI infrastructure investments, driven by the increasing reliance on custom AI chips [14][15]

Core Insights - OpenAI is collaborating with Broadcom to develop its first custom AI ASIC chip, which will initially be used internally rather than offered to external clients [1][2][3] - OpenAI's CEO, Sam Altman, indicated plans to invest trillions of dollars in AI infrastructure, including chips and data centers, emphasizing the long-term importance of AI [2] - Broadcom's recent performance and outlook highlight a surge in demand for AI ASICs, with expectations of significant revenue growth from AI-related orders [4][5][7] Group 1: OpenAI and ASIC Development - OpenAI plans to finalize the design architecture for its AI ASIC in the coming months, with manufacturing to be handled by TSMC [3] - The move to develop custom AI chips aligns OpenAI with other tech giants like Google and Amazon, who have also created ASICs for handling large AI workloads [3][8] - OpenAI's strategy aims to diversify its AI computing resources and reduce reliance on NVIDIA GPUs [2][3] Group 2: Broadcom's Performance and Market Outlook - Broadcom's CEO announced over $10 billion in AI infrastructure orders from a new large-scale client, identified as OpenAI, leading to an upgraded revenue growth forecast for AI-related sales [4][5] - The company expects AI-related revenue growth to exceed previous estimates, with projections of a 50% to 60% increase for fiscal year 2026 [4][5] - Broadcom's stock has seen significant gains, outperforming NVIDIA, as investor sentiment towards AI infrastructure remains strong [5][7] Group 3: Industry Trends and Competitive Landscape - The demand for AI ASICs is expected to grow significantly, with Broadcom positioned as a leader in this space, benefiting from partnerships with major tech companies [3][8] - The performance of Google's latest TPU chip, developed with Broadcom's involvement, demonstrates the competitive advancements in AI ASIC technology [9] - Analysts predict that the market share for AI ASICs will expand, potentially balancing the dominance currently held by NVIDIA in the AI chip sector [8][14]