酒板块眼踪点评报告 TH KE ■ 证券研究报告 因 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 分析师 皇立德 SAC 证书编号: S0160523090004 wuwd01@ctsec.com 分析师 张之 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090004 zhangli01@ctsec.com 任金星 分析师 SAC 证书编号：S0160524010001 renix@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《4Q2025 食品饮料基金持仓分析》 2026-01-29 2. 《国标加速推出，利好行业规范和集中 度提升 》 3. 《牛肉进口政策落地,肉奶共振利好牧 业》 2026-01-05 日酒动销渐起,关注预期差下的板块机织 核心观点 作者具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格，并注册为证券分析师，具备专业胜任能力，保证报告所采用的数 据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解。本报告清晰地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论 不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者也不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接收到任何形式的补偿。 ● 资质声明 � 风险提示:消费力恢复不及预期，行业竞 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the liquor and food sectors, particularly highlighting the potential for growth during the upcoming Spring Festival season [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the initiation of the Spring Festival peak season for liquor sales, with leading brands like Moutai showing significant improvements in sales and pricing, indicating a recovery in market sentiment and expectations [1][2]. - In the food sector, there is an anticipated boost in demand due to pre-holiday stocking, with specific focus on snack foods and beverages as key growth areas [1][2]. Summary by Sections Liquor Sector - The report indicates that the liquor market is entering a peak season, with Moutai leading the way in sales and price recovery, driven by increased demand and channel reforms [2]. - Other notable brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Ancient Well, and Luzhou Laojiao are recommended for short-term investment due to their strong performance and market positioning [1]. Food Sector - The food sector is expected to benefit from pre-holiday stocking, with companies like Anjuke and Qiaqia Foods positioned to capitalize on the festive demand [2][4]. - Anjuke is focusing on new product launches and expanding into overseas markets, while Qiaqia Foods is set to improve profitability in 2026 due to lower raw material costs [4][3]. Growth Opportunities - The report identifies growth opportunities in the snack and beverage segments, with specific companies such as H&H International Holdings and Nongfu Spring highlighted for their potential [1][2]. - The emphasis is placed on the recovery of the restaurant and dairy sectors, with companies like Yili and Qingdao Beer expected to show positive performance [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the liquor and food sectors, particularly highlighting the potential for growth during the upcoming Spring Festival season [1][2]. Core Insights - The white liquor sector is expected to benefit from favorable policies and a strong demand during the Spring Festival, with leading brands like Moutai showing significant sales momentum and price increases [1][2]. - The food sector is also poised for growth, driven by pre-holiday stocking and improvements in the restaurant industry, with a focus on snack foods and beverages as key growth areas [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections White Liquor - The report indicates that the white liquor market is entering a peak season, with Moutai leading the way in sales and price recovery, driven by increased demand and channel reforms [2]. - Other notable brands such as Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu are recommended for medium to long-term investment due to their strong market positions [1]. Food Sector - The food sector is highlighted for its potential growth, particularly in snacks and beverages, with companies like Nongfu Spring and Angel Yeast identified as key players [1]. - Companies such as Anjuke and Qiaqia Foods are expected to benefit from the Spring Festival, with Qiaqia's nut products anticipated to perform well due to their gifting appeal [4]. Company-Specific Insights - **Yingjia Gongjiu**: Positioned well in the mass market, focusing on brand upgrades and expanding its presence in county-level markets [3]. - **Anjuke Foods**: Demonstrating strong sales momentum and planning to expand its product offerings, including halal food options [3]. - **Qiaqia Foods**: Expected to see profit recovery in 2026, with a focus on leveraging its gifting product lines during the Spring Festival [4]. - **Jindaiwei**: Aiming to enhance brand marketing and expand its product categories, with a focus on maintaining market share and optimizing costs [4].

中新网长春2月1日电 (记者 李彦国)1月31日晚，2025-2026赛季CBA常规赛第22轮比赛中，吉林长白山 恩都里男篮主场迎战山西汾酒男篮。山西队反客为主，首节便取得巨大领先，最终以105：74大胜吉林 队，让对手在主场吞下一场失利。 比赛伊始，山西队迅速进入状态，外线连续命中。贾明儒接连投进两记三分，外援迪亚洛首节独得16 分，带领球队打出39：12的进攻高潮，早早奠定胜局。 次节，山西队攻势不减。贾明儒外线打成"3+1"，葛昭宝、法耶等人也接连得分，分差进一步扩大。半 场结束时，山西队已领先40分。 吉林队队员(黑衣)持球进攻，未能阻止主场失利。吴金泽 摄 此役，山西队外援迪亚洛表现突出，贡献23分、7篮板并送出4次抢断，法耶得到16分8篮板。(完) 易边再战，山西队继续保持强势，迪亚洛完成扣篮，外线攻势依旧凌厉。尽管吉林队姜伟泽、贾昊命中 三分试图追赶，但难以扭转战局。三节战罢，山西队以94：52保持绝对领先。 末节，吉林队一度打出10：0的得分波，摩尔命中三分，但因之前分差过大，比赛早已失去悬念。最终 山西队在客场收获一场大胜。 山西队主教练潘江赛后表示，队员本场在执行力和专注度上表现很好，这是 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the retail prices of the top ten Chinese liquor products showed a mixed trend on February 1, with an overall slight increase in price, reaching the highest level in nearly 20 days [1] - The total price for a package of one bottle from each of the top ten products is 9011 yuan, which is a slight increase of 2 yuan from the previous day [1] - Among the ten products, two increased in price, seven decreased, and one remained stable, indicating a complex internal price structure [1] Group 2 - The product with the largest price increase is the premium Moutai, which rose by 34 yuan per bottle, marking the highest increase since the data collection began on November 10 [1] - The price of the flagship Moutai decreased by 25 yuan per bottle, following a significant increase of 90 yuan the previous day [1][3] - Other products that saw price declines include Wuliangye, which dropped by 57 yuan, and Xijiu Junpin, which fell by 4 yuan [1][4] Group 3 - The retail prices for specific products are as follows: - Moutai (Flying) at 1730 yuan, down 25 yuan - Premium Moutai at 2415 yuan, up 34 yuan - Wuliangye at 793 yuan, down 57 yuan - Qinghua Lang at 713 yuan, up 6 yuan - Xijiu Junpin at 642 yuan, down 4 yuan [3][4] - The data is sourced from approximately 200 collection points across major regions, including designated distributors and mainstream e-commerce platforms [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the price fluctuations in the liquor market as the Spring Festival approaches, with a particular focus on the rising prices of Moutai and promotional activities from major brands [2][3][5] - Moutai's wholesale price has increased, with some distributors expecting it to reach 2000 yuan per bottle before the festival, driven by strong demand and limited supply [3][5] - The average retail price of Moutai (500ml/53 degrees) on January 30 was reported at 1843.38 yuan, up from 1600 yuan in December, indicating a significant price increase of 250 yuan [3][19] Group 2 - Major liquor brands, including Wuliangye and Guojiao 1573, are actively engaging in promotional campaigns, offering substantial rewards such as cash and gold to stimulate sales during the festive season [6][8] - Wuliangye has implemented support policies to stabilize market prices, resulting in a slight decrease in the price of its eighth-generation product, with an average retail price of 874.75 yuan [6][19] - Various brands are utilizing incentive programs to enhance consumer engagement, aiming to increase actual sales and reduce inventory pressure [11][12] Group 3 - There is a divergence in market expectations regarding sales performance during the Spring Festival, with some distributors optimistic about sales while others report a decline compared to previous years [12][17] - The overall sentiment indicates a "旺季不旺" (busy season not busy) characteristic, with high-end brands performing better than mid-range and regional brands, which are facing inventory challenges [17] - Price trends are mixed, with some high-end products like Guojiao 1573 seeing price increases, while others like Junpin Xijiu are experiencing declines [15][19]

Group 1 - The recent surge in the liquor sector, particularly in the baijiu market, saw an overall increase of over 9% on January 29, with notable gains from companies like Kweichow Moutai and Luzhou Laojiao, while some smaller firms hit their daily limit [1] - The increase in demand for Feitian Moutai, especially as the Spring Festival approaches, has led to a rise in its wholesale price, which recently jumped by 1,000 yuan to exceed 1,700 yuan per bottle [1] - Despite the recent price surge, the fundamentals of the baijiu sector have not fully reversed, with the industry facing significant challenges over the past year, including a decline in the stock price index and numerous companies reporting profit warnings [4][6] Group 2 - The baijiu industry has experienced a significant downturn, with the total production of major baijiu companies halving from 2019 to 2024, while sales revenue has paradoxically increased from 561.8 billion yuan to 796.4 billion yuan, indicating a compound annual growth rate of over 7% [7] - The market sentiment has reached a low point, with only 21.1% of surveyed companies reporting an increase in customer numbers, reflecting a shrinking consumer base [9] - The ongoing price inversion phenomenon highlights the supply-demand imbalance and increasing channel pressures within the industry [12] Group 3 - The historical significance of baijiu as a cultural symbol is being challenged by recent market adjustments, which are shifting focus back to its consumption attributes [17][18] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with a concentration of market share among leading companies, as evidenced by the CR6 firms' profit share rising from 55% in 2014 to 86% in 2024 [15] - The direct sales model adopted by Kweichow Moutai through its iMoutai app is reshaping consumer engagement and pricing strategies, potentially increasing the company's profit margins [20][34] Group 4 - The recent price adjustments and direct sales strategies by Kweichow Moutai are aimed at stabilizing its pricing system while maintaining a degree of premium pricing for older vintages [26][28] - The pressure on other baijiu companies is expected to increase as Moutai's pricing strategies may disrupt the competitive landscape, particularly affecting those in the same price range [41] - The overall outlook for the baijiu industry remains cautious, with expectations for gradual recovery contingent on broader consumer environment improvements [44][45]

| | 中国知名白酒大单品 烟 | 市场真实成交终端价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | i茅台飞天茅台(2026)售价1499精品茅台售价2299 | | | 品名/规格 | | 今日价格(元) | 较昨日(元) | | | 贵州茅台酒(飞天) 53度/500ml | 1755/瓶 | 90元▲ | | | 贵州茅台酒(精品) 53度/500ml | 2381/瓶 | 12元 - | | | 五粮液普五八代 52度/500ml | 798/瓶 | -2元 | | | 青花汾20 | 375/瓶 | 3元 | | 『国文 出口 U | | --- | | 52度/500ml | 867/瓶 10元▲ 来源：滚动播报 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月31日显著 上行。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为9009元，较昨日上涨117元，重返9000元关 口，创过去20天以来新高。飞天茅台大幅拉升驱动市场上行，头部单品对整体均价的带动效应显著。 今日 市场呈现普涨态势，十大单品七涨两跌一平，高端酒品对价格中枢的影 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly highlighting the recovery of Moutai's pricing and the potential for demand growth during the upcoming Spring Festival [4][6]. Core Insights - Moutai's flying price has risen above 1600 yuan, attributed to the approaching Spring Festival and adjustments in product structure by the company [4][6]. - The listing of "Mingming Hen Mang" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is expected to enhance market attention on the snack sector, with a focus on investment opportunities arising from trends in both upstream and downstream sectors [4][6]. - The food and beverage index recorded a slight positive return of 3.0% as of January 29, 2026, although it underperformed compared to the Wind All A index [4][46]. Summary by Sections 1. Price Recovery of Moutai - As of January 29, 2026, Moutai's flying price reached 1610 yuan for whole boxes and 1570 yuan for individual bottles, showing an increase of 45 yuan and 15 yuan respectively from December 31, 2025, but a decrease of 645 yuan and 650 yuan compared to the same period last year [7][41]. 2. Data Tracking - Key raw material prices have shown mixed trends, with sugar down by 15.3% year-on-year, while quail eggs and palm oil have increased by 46.9% and 9.7% respectively [16][27]. - Packaging material prices have generally decreased, with glass prices down by 19.7% and paper box prices down by 4.8% year-on-year [16][19]. 3. Market Review - The food and beverage sector ranked 23rd among 31 sub-industries, with seven out of ten sub-sectors showing positive growth, particularly processed foods, beer, and liquor [46][48]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the consumer goods sector such as Dongpeng Beverage, Nongfu Spring, and others, as well as key players in the liquor market like Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu [49].

新浪财经"酒价内参"重磅上线 知名白酒真实市场价尽在掌握 新浪财经"酒价内参"过去24小时收集的数据显示，中国白酒市场十大单品的终端零售均价在1月31日显 著上行。如果十大单品各取一瓶整体打包售卖，今日总售价为9009元，较昨日上涨117元，重返9000元 关口，创过去20天以来新高。飞天茅台大幅拉升驱动市场上行，头部单品对整体均价的带动效应显著。 今日市场呈现普涨态势，十大单品七涨两跌一平，高端酒品对价格中枢的影响进一步放大。上涨产品 中，飞天茅台环比大幅上涨90元/瓶，日涨幅创下"酒价内参"11月10日上线以来的最高纪录，精品茅台 同步上涨12元/瓶。在节前关键节点，高端宴请及礼赠需求集中释放，叠加阶段性博弈情绪活跃，推动 核心茅台单品价格快速上移。此外，国窖1573与习酒君品分别上涨10元/瓶、9元/瓶；青花汾20上涨3元/ 瓶；洋河梦之蓝M6+与古井贡古20均小幅上涨1元/瓶。下跌产品方面，青花郎环比下跌7元/瓶，调整幅 度居前；五粮液普五八代小幅回落2元/瓶。水晶剑南春报价389元/瓶，与昨日持平。 | 中国知名白酒大单品 圈 | 市场真实成交终端价 | | | --- | --- | --- | ...