证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 食品饮料 厦门和合肥调研反馈&周观点：旺季效应凸显，春节行情可期 投资建议：1、白酒：顺周期政策积极催化，短期白酒春节旺季效应启动， 茅台动销与批价率先破冰引领行业实现超预期改善，情绪与预期修复先 行、静待基本面改善，短期建议关注春节刚需，中期布局各价位带龙头， 建议配置：1）短期春节刚需及弹性标的：贵州茅台、古井贡酒、迎驾贡 酒、泸州老窖、金徽酒等；2）中长期龙头：五粮液、山西汾酒、今世缘 等。2、大众品：短期重点关注春节备货催化，餐饮改善与改革并行，零 食旺季催化显著，优先关注成长机会、后续切换复苏：1）成长主线布局 零食、饮料及α个股：鸣鸣很忙、万辰集团、卫龙美味、盐津铺子、西麦 食品、有友食品、东鹏饮料、农夫山泉、安琪酵母、H&H 国际控股；2） 复苏主线大餐饮链、乳制品等β弱修复可期：安井食品、巴比食品、宝立 食品、立高食品、新乳业、伊利股份、燕京啤酒、青岛啤酒、仙乐健康等。 分析师 李依琳 安井食品：新品稳健增量，内生势能向上。销售端，公司近期动销较好， 2026 年 1 月起对部分单品收缩促销费用。产品端，2 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 食品饮料 厦门和合肥调研反馈&周观点：旺季效应凸显，春节行情可期 投资建议：1、白酒：顺周期政策积极催化，短期白酒春节旺季效应启动， 茅台动销与批价率先破冰引领行业实现超预期改善，情绪与预期修复先 行、静待基本面改善，短期建议关注春节刚需，中期布局各价位带龙头， 建议配置：1）短期春节刚需及弹性标的：贵州茅台、古井贡酒、迎驾贡 酒、泸州老窖、金徽酒等；2）中长期龙头：五粮液、山西汾酒、今世缘 等。2、大众品：短期重点关注春节备货催化，餐饮改善与改革并行，零 食旺季催化显著，优先关注成长机会、后续切换复苏：1）成长主线布局 零食、饮料及α个股：鸣鸣很忙、万辰集团、卫龙美味、盐津铺子、西麦 食品、有友食品、东鹏饮料、农夫山泉、安琪酵母、H&H 国际控股；2） 复苏主线大餐饮链、乳制品等β弱修复可期：安井食品、巴比食品、宝立 食品、立高食品、新乳业、伊利股份、燕京啤酒、青岛啤酒、仙乐健康等。 厦门和合肥调研总反馈：白酒旺季启动、茅台率先破冰，食品旺季备货可 期。本周我们前往厦门和合肥两地调研白酒、餐饮供应链、零食和保健品 企业。 ...

个股方面，从早间最低不足600家上涨，到午后升至约2000家，市场情绪也有明显回暖。 有趣的是，从上午10点到下午2点，也就是A股反弹最顺畅的时段，大资金借道宽基ETF的连续抛售，暂 时"收手"了。 2点半左右，多只沪深300ETF和上证50ETF的抛盘才"姗姗来迟"，抑制住大盘涨势。 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 | 成交零额 | | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300ETF华泰柏瑞 | -0.04% | 204.50亿 | | 沪深300ETF易方达 | -0.09% | 135.47亿 | | 中证500ETF | 0.64% | 126.39 Z | | A500ETF华泰柏瑞 | 0.15% | 120.28 Z | | FIFFOETF | 0.06% | 90.62亿 | | 沪深300ETF华夏 | -0.12% | 82.78亿 | | 沪深300ETF嘉实 | -0.06% | 73.58亿 | | 创业板ETF易方达 | 0.67% | 58.53亿 | | 中证1000ETF | 0.39% | 55.30 Z | | 科创50ETF | 1.55% | 47.23 7 | 并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant surge in trading volume and financing, indicating a potential bull market, with major sectors like commercial aerospace and technology seeing substantial gains [1][4][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - The first week of 2026 saw a trading volume of 14.26 trillion, nearly breaking the record from August 2025, with financing balances surpassing 2.6 trillion for the first time [1]. - The Shenzhen Component Index reached 14,000 points, and the ChiNext Index hit a four-year high, with the commercial aerospace sector rising by 20% and aerospace equipment by 26% in just one week [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded a 16-day consecutive rise with a cumulative increase of 3.35%, while the Shenzhen and ChiNext indices rose by 5.59% and 4.93%, respectively, marking the strongest start to the year in nearly a decade [4]. Group 2: Capital Flow - Net financing purchases amounted to 79 billion, with the electronics sector receiving 24.1 billion, power equipment 12 billion, and defense and military industries 9.4 billion [3]. - Major funds have shifted over 600 billion into electronics and computer sectors, with mechanical and power equipment sectors also seeing inflows exceeding 500 billion [3]. Group 3: Policy Support - The government is actively promoting investment with the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on technology, consumption, and domestic demand, alongside direct financial incentives like birth subsidies [5][13]. - The recent policies are expected to stimulate consumer spending, benefiting sectors such as consumer goods and services [13]. Group 4: Sector Opportunities - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key growth area for 2026, with strong policy support and performance expectations similar to the rise of the new energy vehicle sector [7][10]. - AI applications are gaining traction, with companies in AI healthcare and education reporting significant revenue growth, indicating a shift towards commercial viability [10]. - The consumer sector shows signs of recovery, particularly in dining, tourism, and healthcare services, although disparities exist within sub-sectors like liquor and medical services [11]. Group 5: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historically, the A-share market tends to rise before the Spring Festival, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing an average increase of 1.72% in the five trading days leading up to the holiday [8]. - The current market dynamics suggest a more rational participation from investors, with a higher proportion of long-term funds compared to speculative short-term trading [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term index of the stock index futures market may continue to oscillate and adjust. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 3 trillion or expand, the market risk is low; otherwise, attention should be paid. It is recommended that investors focus on the structure rather than the index, wait for the volatility to decrease, and be aware of the possible disturbances caused by the annual report performance forecasts of listed companies near the end of January [5]. - For treasury bond futures, it is not advisable to short at present when the long - term bond valuation is at a low level. It is recommended to wait and see and closely monitor the central bank's open - market operation trends [10]. - For precious metals, the short - term opening of the import window may increase the capital cashing pressure that has been driving the internal - external premium, but the physical shortage in the New York market may only ease with the marginal weakening of investment and industrial demand [13]. - For the container shipping index, if the cargo volume before the Spring Festival fails to meet expectations, the spot freight rate may reach an inflection point in mid - to - late January. There is still an expectation of pre - shipment in the first quarter, and the freight rate may have marginal support. Spot enterprises should mainly hold hedging orders, and enterprises with shipping contracts before the Spring Festival should close their long - hedging positions on the futures side. The 04 contract should not be overly shorted in the short term, and attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity between the EC2604 and EC2608 contracts [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.当日要闻 - China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year in December 2025, and the year - on - year increase in imports expanded to 5.7%. In 2025, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports exceeded 45 trillion yuan for the first time [2]. - On January 14, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio for investors to buy securities on margin from 80% to 100% [2]. - The Trump administration approved NVIDIA to sell its second - most powerful AI chips to China, and the US relaxed the regulatory rules for exporting H200 chips to China [2]. - The US government recorded a budget deficit of $145 billion in December, a 67% or $58 billion increase from the same period last year. The net tariff revenue in December was $27.9 billion [3]. - The core inflation in the US slowed down more than expected in December. The year - on - year increase in core CPI was 2.6%, the lowest level in nearly five years, and the year - on - year increase in CPI was 2.7%, in line with expectations [3]. - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, said that if the economic outlook is realized, the Bank of Japan will continue to raise interest rates [4]. 3.2.品种观点 3.2.1. Stock Index Futures - On Wednesday, the market rose first and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.31%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets expanded compared with the previous trading day. Among the underlying indexes of stock index futures, the CSI 300 fell 0.40%, the SSE 50 fell 0.67%, the CSI 500 rose 1.04%, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.66%. Among the current - month contracts of stock index futures, IF2601 fell 0.63%, IH2601 fell 0.79%, IC2601 rose 0.64%, and IM2601 rose 0.08% [5]. - The computer, comprehensive, and communication sectors led the gains, while the banking, real estate, and non - bank financial sectors led the losses [5]. - Market regulations have been frequent in the first three trading days of this week, which led to a market decline in the afternoon. Since December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index has continued to rise, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets has refreshed the historical high for three consecutive days [5]. 3.2.2. Treasury Bond Futures - On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 28.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 212.2 billion yuan. The money market was tight, and the overnight repurchase rate was 1.39% [10]. - Affected by the non - renewal of the previous day's outright reverse repurchase, the bond market opened lower in the morning. In the afternoon, the regulatory authorities cooled the equity market, and TL2603 once turned positive and closed with a doji star. The non - renewal of the outright reverse repurchase is a concern for the bond market [10]. - Since December, treasury bond futures have been under pressure to decline. Although the equity market has cooled, the impact of the equity market on the bond market is limited at present. The above - mentioned negative factors have been partially released, and it is not advisable to short at present [10]. 3.2.3. Precious Metals - In the Asian session today, Shanghai silver continued to lead the rise in the precious metals sector. The domestic silver futures and spot prices rose strongly, and the internal - external spot premium jumped to 2,700 yuan/kg, with the premium rate rising to 13.5%. The import window opened again [12][13]. - Speculative funds showed differentiation. Gold and silver were mainly added, with gold being increased for 6 consecutive days. The total positions of New York gold futures, silver futures, platinum futures, and palladium futures changed to +7,855 lots, +2,146 lots, - 631 lots, and - 35 lots respectively [12]. 3.2.4. Container Shipping Index - Shipping companies continued to lower spot freight rates to increase the end - of - month shipment volume in the spot market. If the cargo volume before the Spring Festival fails to meet expectations, the spot freight rate may reach an inflection point in mid - to - late January. However, due to the cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products from April 1, there is still an expectation of pre - shipment in the first quarter, and the freight rate may have marginal support [14]. - The instability of shipping companies' frequent changes in spot quotes increases the difficulty of unilateral investment. Spot enterprises should mainly hold hedging orders, and enterprises with shipping contracts before the Spring Festival should close their long - hedging positions on the futures side. The 04 contract should not be overly shorted in the short term, and attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity between the EC2604 and EC2608 contracts [14]. 3.3.未来24小时重点数据 - Tonight (January 14): The US November retail sales month - on - month rate (forecast: 0.4%), the US November PPI annual rate (forecast: 2.7%), and the US December existing home sales annualized total (forecast: 4.21 million) [17]. - Tomorrow (January 15): China's December M2 money supply annual rate (forecast: 8%), China's December social financing scale (forecast: 3.52685 trillion yuan), China's December new RMB loans (forecast: 1.61608 trillion yuan), the US January New York Fed manufacturing index (forecast: 1), the US initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10 (forecast: 2.15 million), and the US January SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the recent decline in Moutai's price is temporarily suppressing the performance of the sector, while December's policy environment may provide potential catalysts for consumption [1] Group 1: Alcohol Industry - The liquor industry is experiencing a continuous bottoming out in sales [1] - The demand for liquor is expected to stabilize and wait for the Spring Festival market after reaching a bottom [1] Group 2: Consumer Goods - The current valuation of food and beverage is at a relatively low historical level, indicating clear bottom logic for high-quality assets like liquor [1] - The consumer goods sector is focusing on three main lines: improvement in the restaurant supply chain and supermarket customization, high growth in health-oriented and functional products, and optimization of the cost cycle [1] - It is anticipated that the consumer goods sub-sector will continue to outperform the liquor sector [1]