策略研究|策略月报 [Table_Title] A 股迎来春节行情，资金表现活跃 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 27 日 | | | | 分析师: [Table_Authors] | 宫慧菁 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号： | S0270524010001 | | 电话： | 18028875418 | | 邮箱： | gonghj@wlzq.com.cn | 3071 ⚫ 2 月 A 股主要股指涨跌互现：截至 2 月 25 日收盘，上证综 指收报 4,147.23 点，较 1 月末上涨 0.71%。分结构看，本 月 A 股主要股指涨跌互现。其中，中证 500、沪深 300 指数 涨幅较大。 ⚫ 本月市场流动性较为平稳：截至 2 月 25 日，因假期影响， 本月 A 股市场新成立的偏股型基金份额回落，全市场日均 成交额环比下降，但重要股东净减持规模下降，A 股限售解 禁规模下降。总体而言，2 月 A 股市场流动性较为平稳。证 监会主席吴清表示，证监会将高质量编制和实施好资本市 场"十五五"规划，全力巩固资本市场稳中向好势头，以更 大力度培育耐心资本和推动中长 ...

重要观点 证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 27 日 浙商早知道 2026 年 02 月 27 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 ❑ 【浙商固收信用债 杨语涵】债券市场专题研究：谁在定价春节前后债市？——20260226 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：2 月 26 日上证指数下跌 0.01%，沪深 300 下跌 0.19%，科创 50 上涨 0.85%，中证 1000 上涨 0.76%，创业 板指下跌 0.29%，恒生指数下跌 1.44%。 ❑ 行业：2 月 26 日表现最好的行业分别是通信（+2.84%)、电子（+1.98%)、国防军工（+1.52%)、机械设备 （+1.41%)、钢铁（+1.33%)，表现最差的行业分别是房地产（-2.25%)、传媒（-1.45%)、非银金融（-1.42%)、商 贸零售（-1.22%)、食品饮料（-1.2%)。 ❑ 资金：2 月 26 日全 A 总成交额为 25566 亿 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the debate among investors regarding whether to hold stocks or cash during the upcoming holiday, with a prevailing trend towards "holding stocks" based on historical data analysis [1][2] - Historical data indicates that the probability of A-shares rising during the week before and after the Spring Festival exceeds 70%, with a notable increase in trading volume expected post-holiday [2] - Analysts suggest that the decision to hold stocks or cash should depend on the investor's portfolio structure, highlighting that quality stocks may warrant holding through the holiday [5][6] Group 2 - The market has shown a trend of reduced trading volume leading up to the holiday, with recent trading volumes ranging between 2 trillion to 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a typical pre-holiday pattern [2] - Concerns about external market volatility during the extended holiday period are noted, but analysts believe that the impact on the domestic market will be limited, with expectations for improved economic and profit forecasts [5] - Investors holding Hong Kong stocks should be aware of the differing holiday schedules, as the trading window for those using the Hong Kong Stock Connect will align with A-shares, necessitating timely decisions [6]

受访公募机构普遍对科技资产持乐观态度，其中以AI为代表的相关资产更受青睐。同时，部分机构认为，传媒、互联网等 板块仍处于底部区域，锂电、光储等龙头公司估值依然较为便宜。"要把握春节行情，投资者可优先选择趋势明确、估值合理 的板块，比如AI产业链、电网设备、央企红利等，既考虑成长空间，也兼顾抗波动能力。" 期货仍长期青睐贵金属资产 今年以来，商品资产持续受到资金青睐，受访期货公司认为，国内春节长假期间，海外市场风险或有传导可能，部分商品 在节后有一定波动风险，但对于基本面相对确定的资产，仍可在长假期间适度持有。 受访金融机构普遍建议，针对趋势性明显的部分资产可适度持仓过节，以把握上涨机会。华夏基金相关人士向《证券日 报》记者表示，A股市场的"春节效应"是根据多年运行沉淀的高概率日历特征，一般情况下会迎来较强走势，但部分板块也会 出现分化特征。针对今年春节行情，现阶段利空因素正被市场逐步消化，宽松流动性预期仍有望实现。 嘉实基金相关负责人告诉记者，春节前后，投资者对权益市场表现需持理性偏乐观态度，市场风格与结构可能发生变化。 从估值层面来看，今年初市场对过往涨幅较高的三条主线（AI技术应用、AI基建需求驱动和中国 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the consensus among institutions to "hold stocks during the festival," with a significant majority of private equity firms expressing optimism about the post-holiday market performance [2][4][5]. - A survey indicates that over 60% of private equity institutions prefer to hold a heavy or full stock position during the holiday, with nearly 70% expecting the A-share market to stabilize and rise after the Spring Festival [2][6][8]. - Historical data shows that the A-share market typically performs better after the Spring Festival, with a notable calendar effect where the market tends to recover from pre-holiday declines [4][9]. Group 2 - The article highlights that 62.16% of private equity firms favor a heavy stock position, while 16.22% prefer a moderately heavy position, indicating a general belief in structural opportunities despite potential short-term fluctuations [6][8]. - Specific investment preferences among private equity firms include a focus on undervalued blue-chip stocks and technology growth sectors, with 41.18% favoring a balanced approach and 29.41% concentrating on technology growth as a core market theme [6][8]. - The sentiment towards the post-holiday market is largely optimistic, with 69.23% of private equity firms believing that the market has adequately consolidated before the holiday, setting the stage for a potential upward trend [8][9].

2月11日，三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，上证指数涨0.09%，深证成指跌0.35%，创业板指 跌1.08%。资金活跃度降低，沪深两市成交额跌破2万亿，较上一个交易日缩量1213亿元。 距离2026年农历春节休市安排仅剩下2个交易日，持股，还是持币？多数机构对"史上超长九 天春节假期"给出持股过节建议。 对于节后A股行情，私募排排网调查问卷结果显示，69.23%的私募持乐观态度，认为春节前市场整固较 为充分，节后A股有望企稳向上，重启升势；21.15%的私募持中性态度，认为市场多空因素交织，节后 指数仍有整固需求，重点关注结构性机会；9.62%的私募持谨慎态度，认为市场结构性估值泡沫仍偏 多，节后市场主要股指和个股赚钱效应可能回落。 天风证券分析认为，今年的春季行情可能会强化。无论是"十五五"开局之年的政策预期、全球流动性宽 松前景，还是居民资金向权益资产配置的趋势，都可能强化节后市场上涨的可能，今年的春节行情或更 持续。况且，今年受"史上超长九天春节假期"的影响，消费需求释放明显早于往年，出行与消费规模有 望再突破，市场对经济"开门红"的预期或更稳定。 中国银河证券表示，春节假期后，随着政策窗口开启、风险偏好 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong performance in Hong Kong's AI applications, smart driving, and robotics stocks, with the Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 1.1% and the CSI Hong Kong Internet Index increasing by 1.3% as of 13:25 on February 11 [1] - Notable stocks within these indices include Bilibili-W, which rose by 6.2%, Xiaomi Group-W, which increased by 4.7%, and SenseTime-W, which saw a rise of 4.1%. Additionally, southbound funds recorded a net purchase exceeding 3 billion HKD during the session [1] - Market analysis indicates that from 2015 to 2025, the Hang Seng Tech Index exhibits significant seasonal characteristics during the Chinese New Year period, with strong performance typically observed in the last three trading days before the holiday and a continuation of this trend in the ten trading days following the holiday [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Tech Index comprises the 30 largest stocks listed in Hong Kong that are highly related to technology themes, balancing both "hard tech" and "soft tech." The CSI Hong Kong Internet Index focuses on internet platform companies in Hong Kong, gathering core Chinese AI enterprises [1] - Both indices have rolling price-to-earnings ratios below 25, positioned at the 27.0% and 22.3% percentiles since their inception, indicating potential valuation attractiveness [1] - Investment products such as the E Fund Hang Seng Tech ETF (513010) and the E Fund Hong Kong Internet ETF (513040) are available for investors to conveniently access the Hong Kong tech sector, with the Hang Seng Tech ETF experiencing a net inflow of 2.3 billion HKD over seven consecutive trading days, bringing its total size to over 30 billion HKD [2]

Group 1 - The core index, the CSI A500 Index (000510), has shown a slight increase of 0.12% as of February 11, 2026, with notable gains from stocks such as Wangsu Science & Technology (up 10.55%) and China Jushi (up 9.99%) [1] - The A500 ETF Fund (512050) has experienced active trading, with a turnover rate of 11.83% and a transaction volume of 4.824 billion yuan, indicating a vibrant market [1] - Over the past three months, the A500 ETF Fund has seen a significant growth in scale, increasing by 21.227 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI A500 Index include Ningde Times, Kweichow Moutai, and China Ping An, collectively accounting for 19.39% of the index [2] - The A500 ETF Fund has various related funds, including the Huaxia CSI A500 ETF Connect A (022430) and the Huaxia CSI A500 Index Enhanced A (023619) [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the winning rates of major indices are gradually increasing as the Spring Festival approaches, with further enhancement expected post-festival due to improved risk appetite and the release of incremental funds [1] - The market is experiencing a typical period of volatility driven by liquidity and risk appetite, particularly as companies begin to disclose annual performance forecasts [1] - The performance of major indices shows a notable increase in winning rates during the week leading up to the Spring Festival, with expectations for further gains after the holiday [1] Group 2 - Post-Spring Festival, small-cap, growth, and thematic sectors are expected to outperform, indicating a market environment with increased elasticity [2][9] - The current market conditions, characterized by a lack of fundamental news and increased risk appetite, favor high-elasticity sectors such as small-cap and growth stocks [2] - The technology manufacturing and resource & infrastructure sectors are projected to dominate post-festival, driven by enhanced risk appetite and the upcoming "golden three silver four" seasonal peak [9][16] Group 3 - The AI application sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with recent developments creating a favorable environment for thematic plays [3] - The upcoming events related to AI applications, including significant financial disclosures from major companies, are expected to catalyze interest and investment in this sector [4] - The focus on TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing sectors is emphasized, particularly in relation to the recovery of AI hardware and advanced manufacturing [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market shows a rebound, with the Spring Festival market possibly continuing and a general rise expected; focus on the supplementary increase elasticity of weighted indexes [7] - Bond market sentiment improves, and the short - term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased [8] - Black commodities such as steel and iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and some high - position short orders of iron ore can be held in the medium term [11] - Double - coke prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13] - For iron alloys, manganese ore has strong short - term support, manganese silicon is in an oscillatory range, and silicon iron can be a long - allocation variety in the medium term [14] - For soda ash and glass, it is advisable to wait and see currently, focusing on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity reaching production [15] - Copper prices are mainly in a wide - range oscillation in the short term, and fundamentals still support prices [16] - Carbonate lithium is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and opportunities for buying on dips after the correction can be concerned [17] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillatory state, with limited downward adjustment space for industrial silicon and polysilicon oscillating widely [18] - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be in a high - level consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [20] - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate and rebound, and short - term trading in the low - position range before the Spring Festival is recommended [23] - For eggs, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on second - quarter contracts [25] - High - quality apple supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly [26] - Corn prices are expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and opportunities after the festival should be concerned [28] - Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [29] - The spot price of live pigs is lower than expected, and the near - month contract may decline further [30] - Crude oil prices are expected to have limited room for rebound and mainly oscillate [32] - Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices [33] - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly, and caution should be exercised to prevent correction risks [34] - Rubber is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and short - selling out - of - the - money put options or low - level accumulation can be considered [35] - Synthetic rubber may correct before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities for long - buying after the festival [36] - Methanol's fundamentals are slightly improved in the long term, but caution should be exercised due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [37] - Caustic soda can be considered from a long - biased perspective for the time being [38] - Asphalt will fluctuate with crude oil prices and is stronger than crude oil [39] - PVC may enter a correction stage later, and caution should be exercised [40] - The polyester chain is expected to follow crude oil prices to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and inter - variety arbitrage opportunities of long TA and short EG can be considered [42] - LPG prices will follow crude oil prices, and caution should be exercised in trading [43] - Pulp prices have limited downward space in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [44] - Log prices may decline under the expectation of supply exceeding demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to position control [44] - Urea futures should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [45] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Based on Fundamental Judgments - **Trend Bearish**: No specific varieties mentioned - **Oscillating Bearish**: Eggs, red dates, etc. [2][29] - **Oscillating**: Coke, PTA, etc. [4] - **Oscillating Bullish**: Caustic soda, glass, etc. [2][15] - **Trend Bullish**: No specific varieties mentioned 3.2 Based on Quantitative Indicators - **Bearish**: Sugar, coke, etc. [4] - **Oscillating**: Hot - rolled coils, eggs, etc. [4] - **Bullish**: Rebar, glass, etc. [4] 3.3 Macro Information - The first inspection in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period highlights the importance of technological self - reliance [10] - The stock exchanges optimize refinancing measures, focusing on high - quality listed companies and the technology innovation field [10] - The Chinese government makes a solemn statement on the Japanese prime minister's expected continued tenure [10] - Chongqing introduces a package of real - estate policies, including purchase subsidies [10] - The first global humanoid robot free - fighting league is launched [10] - Goldman Sachs reports that the global memory market will face a severe supply shortage from 2026 - 2027 [10] - The US plans to lower tariffs on Bangladeshi goods [10] - The US employment growth data is expected to slow down [10] - The Japanese prime minister plans to promote food tax cuts [10] 3.4 Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Spring Festival market may continue, and there is a possibility of a general rise. Focus on the supplementary increase elasticity of weighted indexes [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment improves, and the short - term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased [8] 3.5 Black Commodities - **Screw and Ore**: The trading rhythm is earlier this year. Steel inventories may be high after the festival. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Double - coke prices may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese ore has strong short - term support, manganese silicon is in an oscillatory range, and silicon iron can be a long - allocation variety in the medium term [14] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: It is advisable to wait and see currently, focusing on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity reaching production [15] 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Copper prices are mainly in a wide - range oscillation in the short term, and fundamentals still support prices [16] - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and opportunities for buying on dips after the correction can be concerned [17] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downward adjustment space, and polysilicon oscillates widely [18] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be in a high - level consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [20] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate and rebound, and short - term trading in the low - position range before the Spring Festival is recommended [23] - **Eggs**: It is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on second - quarter contracts [25] - **Apples**: High - quality apple supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly [26] - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and opportunities after the festival should be concerned [28] - **Red Dates**: Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [29] - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is lower than expected, and the near - month contract may decline further [30] 3.8 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices are expected to have limited room for rebound and mainly oscillate [32] - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices [33] - **Plastics**: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly, and caution should be exercised to prevent correction risks [34] - **Rubber**: Rubber is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and short - selling out - of - the - money put options or low - level accumulation can be considered [35] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber may correct before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities for long - buying after the festival [36] - **Methanol**: Methanol's fundamentals are slightly improved in the long term, but caution should be exercised due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [37] - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda can be considered from a long - biased perspective for the time being [38] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt will fluctuate with crude oil prices and is stronger than crude oil [39] - **PVC**: PVC may enter a correction stage later, and caution should be exercised [40] - **Polyester Chain**: The polyester chain is expected to follow crude oil prices to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and inter - variety arbitrage opportunities of long TA and short EG can be considered [42] - **LPG**: LPG prices will follow crude oil prices, and caution should be exercised in trading [43] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices have limited downward space in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [44] - **Logs**: Log prices may decline under the expectation of supply exceeding demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to position control [44] - **Urea**: Urea futures should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [45]