证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2026 年 02 月 03 日 布局消费反转！ 大消费组二月消费金股 研究部/消费品 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 4.3 4.6 25.0 相对表现 3.1 -8.7 1.7 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 消费品 沪深300 相关报告 1、《招商证券 1 月港股消费观察： 外卖反垄断如何影响港股消费股前 景？》2026-01-27 2、《大消费组一月消费金股—双节 消费亮点前瞻》2026-01-06 ❑ 轻纺 杨蕊菁：看好家居板块修复以及倍加洁益生菌业务发展 风险提示：消费下行风险，消费复苏疲软风险、宏观经济变动风险等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 1216 | 23.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 17628.3 | 15.6 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 16321.4 | 15.9 | 行业指数 3、《招商证券 12 月港股消费观察— 1-2 月流动性改善后港股消费买什 么？》2025 ...

好的，各位投资人，晚上好，然后欢迎参加我们的医药每周谈第 236 期，关于 GP MOOC 2026 的海外公司的一个进展。然后我是中银建投医药分析师徐颖翔。然后就是关于整个 Gilead 海外公司的一个情况吧。我们可以看得出来，在整个基于摩根这个期间的话，海外 的药企主要就是在一个专利悬崖的一个压力下面，是加速转型与和与技术兑现。大部分跨 国药企的话，是通过一个大规模的 BD 和并购来平滑自己重磅产品专利的到期的一个销售 冲击。包括默沙东规划 700 亿美元的一个新的产品组合，BMS 的话这几年也完成了 300 亿美元的一个并购交易，阿斯利康的话也是目标在 2030 年能够实现一个 800 亿美元的一 个营收。 因此这几年的话，整个受并购与 BD 还是各家跨国药企最重要的一个战略布局的一个方向， 主要也就是为了应对专利悬崖，同时聚焦高确定性的资产，以及技术平台的一个补强。另 一方面的话，也是整个 AI，从工具也上升到了一个制药的一个核心生产力。成为整个制药 行业的一个核心的驱动，驱动力之一。多家跨国药企，包括礼来、阿斯利康、赛诺菲，都 在 GD Morgan 期间。通过与英伟达以及各种其他的 AI 公司达成 ...

2026 年 2 月 2 日 投资要点 ➢ 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注 6 个子行业录得负收益。 2、中国生物医药产业正从"快速扩张"的 1.0 时代，迈入以"价值与 全球竞争力"为核心的 2.0 时代。其标志是：中国已成为全球第二 大新药首发市场，2025 年 1-8 月对外许可交易额突破 500 亿美元， 并在靶向蛋白质降解等颠覆性技术领域确立全球领导地位。支持 性的"全链条"政策与理性回归的资本市场，共同推动行业转向以 扎实临床数据、可持续商业模式和系统化能力为根基的高质量发 展阶段。这标志着中国正从全球创新的跟随者，转变为不可忽视 的引领力量。 团队成员 医疗与消费周报——价值深耕，全球突破：中国 生物医药创新观察（2026.1.26-2026.1.30） 1、市场状态高频数据库——1 月第 3 周—— 2026.01.26 2、地缘扰动、"抛售美债"与金银——2026.01.26 3、海外科技和商品是对美元债务的避险，中国定 价 资 产 有 望 成 为 长 期 主 线 — — 周 观 点 — — 2026.01.25 ➢ 风险提示 内卷风险；支付挑战；国际化短板 证 券 研 究 报 告 诚信专业 ...

发布时间：2026-02-02 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 8338.3 | | 52 周最高 | 9323.49 | | 52 周最低 | 6876.88 | 行业相对指数表现 -5% -1% 3% 7% 11% 15% 19% 23% 27% 31% 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2025-09 2025-11 2026-01 医药生物 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:徐智敏 SAC 登记编号:S1340525100003 Email: xuzhimin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 2025 年有数十个 AI 衍生的管线进入人体临床试验，但回顾过往 管线来看，与任何其他新技术的发展一样，AI 制药的发展之路也是曲 折的。AI 制药极大加速了临床早期的进程同时亦能取得超出传统经验 水平的 1 期成功率（80%~90% vs 40%~65%），而在 2 期及后续的进 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Surgical Robot Industry**: The Chinese surgical robot industry is experiencing rapid development, supported by national policies and capital investment. Key technological advancements include remote operation, miniaturization, and AI assistance. The market for laparoscopic surgical robots is projected to reach 40.543 billion yuan by 2033, with a CAGR of 28.7% from 2024 to 2033 [doc id='21'][doc id='19']. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Opportunities in Innovative Drugs and CRO**: Despite past challenges, investment activity in innovative drugs and Contract Research Organizations (CRO) is expected to rise significantly. Business development (BD) amounts are anticipated to reach new highs, with companies like Rongchuang and Shiyao achieving attractive upfront payment ratios [doc id='3'][doc id='4']. - **Medical Device Sector Recovery**: The medical device sector is nearing the end of its inventory destocking phase, with performance expected to improve gradually in 2026. The resumption of procurement rhythms and an increase in bidding volumes are noted trends [doc id='5']. - **IVD Sector Outlook**: The In Vitro Diagnostics (IVD) sector is expected to face pressure in 2025, but conditions are projected to improve in 2026 as pricing pressures ease and policies are fully implemented [doc id='8'][doc id='9']. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) Recovery**: The TCM sector is anticipated to bottom out in Q2 2026, with a potential recovery in 2027 driven by policy support and demand resurgence [doc id='10']. Additional Important Insights - **AI Medical and Brain-Computer Interface Technologies**: AI in healthcare is crucial for enhancing productivity, though its commercialization path remains uncertain. The brain-computer interface sector shows promise but also faces commercialization challenges [doc id='6']. - **CRO Sector Performance**: The CRO sector is showing strong order and operational performance, with companies like Kanglong Huacheng making significant progress in commercial production [doc id='11']. - **Market Dynamics for Surgical Robots**: The market for surgical robots is transitioning from an introduction phase to a growth phase, with increasing sales but slower revenue growth, indicating a structural transformation [doc id='19']. - **Regulatory Developments**: The National Medical Insurance Administration's guidelines are expected to accelerate the clinical application of surgical robots by establishing legitimate billing items [doc id='19']. Company-Specific Highlights - **Shiyao Group and AstraZeneca Collaboration**: The collaboration in the weight loss and metabolism field has set historical highs for upfront payments and total package amounts, although the overall sentiment in the sector remains subdued [doc id='7']. - **Kanglong Huacheng's Growth**: The company is expected to see a significant increase in order retention rates with the launch of its Shaoxing Phase II project, enhancing its competitive position in the CRO market [doc id='12']. - **Emerging Companies**: Companies like Tianyu and Starly are projected to enter performance inflection points this year, with significant growth potential in the raw material pharmaceutical sector [doc id='13'][doc id='14']. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of various sectors within the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries in China.

Core Insights - The biotechnology industry is rapidly developing and is a key direction for global technological revolution and industrial upgrading, with innovative drugs being a core engine aligned with the "Healthy China" strategy [1] - By 2026, the Hong Kong stock market's biotechnology sector is expected to see a significant increase in merger and acquisition activities, with Goldman Sachs predicting record-high global pharmaceutical and biotechnology M&A volumes [1] - The Chinese biotechnology sector is currently driven by a combination of policy benefits, capital support, and technological breakthroughs, with a shift in regulatory focus from cost control to encouraging quality innovation [1][2] Industry Trends - There is a persistent demand for the diagnosis and treatment of diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular conditions, supported by increased consumer payment capacity and rising healthcare expenditures, providing substantial growth opportunities for the industry [2] - The industry is transitioning from "broad innovation" to "differentiated innovation and international development," with a significant number of innovative drugs expected to be approved in China by 2025 [2] - In 2025, 76 innovative drugs are projected to be approved in China, with over 80% being domestic innovations, and a record total of over $130 billion in licensing transactions for innovative drugs [2] Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index (HSBIO.HI) highlights the investment value of high-purity and scarce biotechnology companies, focusing on leading firms in the sector with a low overlap with traditional pharmaceuticals [3] - The index includes 30 leading biotechnology companies listed in Hong Kong, with a significant portion of its weight concentrated in the top ten stocks, including WuXi Biologics and BeiGene [3] - The Guangfa Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF, launched to facilitate efficient investment in core biotechnology assets, offers T+0 trading and low fees, positioning it as an attractive option for investors looking to capitalize on the sector's growth [3][4]

在相关指数中，恒生生物科技指数（HSBIO.HI）以"高纯度"和稀缺性凸显配置价值。指数精选30家纳 入港股通、市值领先的生物科技公司，覆盖18A规则上市的龙头企业，剔除传统制药，集中布局小核 酸、双抗、细胞治疗等A股相对稀缺的前沿技术平台，AH股重合度小于20%，具有差异化配置价值。指 数成分股100%属于医疗保健业，前十大权重股占比约70%，网罗药明生物、百济神州、信达生物等生 物技术和药品龙头。业绩表现高弹性，截至1月29日，恒生生物科技指数近一年涨幅达82.2%，显著跑 赢医疗医药板块同类指数。 为便利投资者高效布局港股生物科技核心资产，广发基金于2月2日至6日推出广发恒生生物科技ETF （场内简称：恒生生物科技ETF广发，代码：159169）。该ETF支持T+0交易，无QDII额度限制，低门 槛更便捷，整体费率在同类跨境ETF中处于低档位。随着生物科技景气度回升、港股流动性优势显现， 恒生生物科技ETF有望助力投资者高效把握中国生科企业在全球化进程中的结构性机遇。 近年来，生物科技产业加速发展，已成为全球科技革命与产业升级的重要方向。创新药作为行业核心引 擎，与"健康中国"战略高度契合，也是培育新质 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the continuous focus on investment opportunities related to AI in healthcare, driven by the growth of Tencent's AI applications and the need for data-driven solutions in medical settings [2][21]. - The investment logic centers around "data closed-loop" and "scene demand," highlighting AI's role as a core productivity driver in healthcare under the dual pressures of cost control and technological advancements [22]. - The report outlines a three-stage clinical value investment strategy, focusing on innovative drug chains and medical devices, with specific recommendations for companies in these sectors [3][27]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Last week, the A-share pharmaceutical and biotechnology index fell by 3.31%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.39 percentage points and ranking 22nd among 31 sub-industries [1][15]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Medical Health Index also declined by 2.98%, lagging behind the Hang Seng Index by 4.69 percentage points [1][15]. R&D Progress - Recent developments include new drug applications from companies such as Hengrui Medicine and Innovent Biologics, with ongoing clinical trials for various products [30]. Key Companies and Valuation - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast and valuation table for key companies, recommending "Buy" for several firms including Innovent Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and Mindray Medical [4][27]. AI Healthcare Investment Focus - The report identifies several core areas for AI in healthcare, including AI drug development, medical imaging, chronic disease management, and surgical robotics, emphasizing the importance of proprietary data and business scenarios for competitive advantage [22][24]. Annual Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the investment focus should increasingly emphasize the clinical value of pharmaceuticals, with a positive outlook on innovative drug chains and high-end medical devices [3][26].

中国创新药出海BD再获里程碑式突破！ 1月30日，石药集团宣布已与全球生物制药领导者阿斯利康签订战略研发合作与授权协议，以利用集团 专有的缓释给药技术平台及多肽药物AI发现平台，开发创新长效多肽药物。若后续所有研发及销售里 程碑均达成，石药集团方面有权获得总计高达185亿美元的款项。 据不完全统计，本次交易刷新了中国药企BD交易总金额最高纪录，超过了此前启德医药与 Biohaven&AimedBio达成的一笔130亿美元交易。其12亿美元的预付款，仅次于此前三生制药与辉瑞就 PD-1/VEGF达成的数额。 不过，二级市场反应不佳，石药集团股价高开低走，盘中一度狂泻近13%，收跌10.2%。什么原因？分 析人士指出，或系多方面因素叠加影响。 从石药集团股价近日表现来看，市场可能提前定价。在此次协议公告前，石药集团已连续多日强势上 涨，尤其在1月28日，股价单日大涨6.14%创年内新高。公告发布后，部分资金可能选择获利了结，形 成"利好兑现"式抛压。 从业绩贡献来看，尽管协议总金额高达185亿美元，但预付款为12亿美元，其余173亿美元为研发与销售 里程碑付款，需在未来数年、多个临床阶段成功推进后方可兑现，短期现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The strategic collaboration between CSPC Pharmaceutical Group and AstraZeneca, valued at up to $18.5 billion, was met with unexpected market skepticism, leading to a significant drop in stock prices for both companies involved [2][4][7]. Group 1: Strategic Collaboration Details - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group announced a strategic partnership with AstraZeneca to co-develop innovative long-acting peptide drugs based on CSPC's drug delivery technology and AI discovery platform [3][4]. - The agreement includes a $1.2 billion upfront payment, up to $3.5 billion in research milestone payments, and $13.8 billion in sales milestone payments, along with a double-digit revenue share based on annual net sales [4][5]. - This deal surpasses the previous record of $11.4 billion set by Innovent Biologics and Takeda in 2025, marking a new high for outbound licensing in China's biopharmaceutical sector [4]. Group 2: Market Reaction and Concerns - Following the announcement, CSPC's stock fell by 9.82% to HKD 9.64 per share, while its closely related company, New Horizon Health, saw a drop of 15.72% [2][7]. - Analysts suggest that the market's negative reaction stems from concerns over the details of the deal and the companies' fundamentals, indicating that the perceived benefits may not align with the actual risks involved [7]. - The milestone payments are contingent on successful clinical trials and market performance, raising questions about the viability of CSPC's projects in a competitive landscape [7][8]. Group 3: Product and Competitive Landscape - The core asset in this collaboration is SYH2082, a long-acting weight management drug currently in Phase I clinical trials, targeting GLP-1R and GIPR receptors [8][9]. - The competitive landscape for GLP-1 drugs is intensifying, with major players like Eli Lilly and domestic companies rapidly advancing their own dual-target and multi-target drugs [9][10]. - CSPC's late entry into the clinical phase with SYH2082 presents challenges in efficacy differentiation and safety optimization, which will be critical for its future competitiveness [10]. Group 4: Financial Context and Implications - CSPC's decision to pursue this significant licensing deal comes at a time when its financial performance is under pressure, with a reported revenue decline of 12.32% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025 [11]. - New Horizon Health stands to benefit from the upfront payment, which will help alleviate its cash flow issues as it anticipates a significant net loss in 2025 due to high R&D expenditures [12].