Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of real estate companies in 2025 continues to show a bottoming trend, with some companies experiencing significant recovery in their performance. The proportion of companies with year-on-year performance growth is 24%, with 12 companies achieving growth rates exceeding 30% [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The real estate market in 2025 maintains a bottoming trend, with overall sales remaining at low levels. There are 10 companies with sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, 42 companies with sales between 10-30 billion yuan, and 35 companies with sales below 10 billion yuan [2]. - Among the 10 companies with sales over 100 billion yuan, only one company, China Jinmao, reported performance growth. In the 13 companies with sales between 30-100 billion yuan, three companies reported growth: Greenland Holdings, China State Construction East, and Bangtai Group [8]. Group 2: Company Performance - A total of 224 companies reported year-on-year performance growth, with 24 companies showing growth. Notably, Bangtai Group's performance surpassed 30 billion yuan for the first time, with a significant year-on-year increase of 79.7% [4][5]. - The companies with the highest sales and their respective year-on-year growth rates include: - Kerry Properties: 227.87 billion yuan, 1646.5% - Jiangshan Wanli Real Estate: 174.50 billion yuan, 731.3% - Fuzhou Jianfa: 88.90 billion yuan, 92.9% - Shanghai Construction: 92.75 billion yuan, 80.6% - Bangtai Group: 303.54 billion yuan, 79.7% [5]. Group 3: State-Owned vs. Private Enterprises - Central state-owned enterprises performed relatively well, with 42.9% of them reporting performance growth. In contrast, only 15.2% of private enterprises and 12.5% of mixed-ownership enterprises reported growth [9][13]. - The proportion of performance growth among various types of real estate companies shows a clear differentiation, with state-owned enterprises leading in growth rates compared to private and mixed-ownership enterprises [13].

以下文章来源于普睿地产研究 ，作者普睿数智研究中心 普睿地产研究 . 涵盖市场、企业等八大研究方向，专注房地产市场发展、房企运营、产品力及多元化与代建课题探究。常规研究成果按日度、周度、月度定期发布，每年 亦推出上百篇重磅专题，为行业提供专业决策参考。 导 读 头部企业强者恒强，投资集中度超七成，其中央企投资保持领先，民企信心随市场筑底不断 修复。 ☉ 文／ 克而瑞深度咨询·普睿数智研究中心 | 4 | 绿城中国 | 1300.0 | | --- | --- | --- | | 5 | 束润置部 | 1243.2 | | 6 | 中国金茂 | 953.8 | | 7 | 越秀地产 | 855.4 | | 8 | 建发房产 | 854.6 | | 9 | 中旅投资 | 703.21 | | 10 | 滨江集团 | 667.8 | | 11 | 中建智地 | 411.7 | | 12 | 保利置业 | 350.4 | | 13 | 武汉城建 | 330.0 | | 14 | 象屿地产 | 295.9 | | 15 | 邦泰集团 | 293.2 | | 16 | 国贸地产 | 269.4 | | 17 | 联发集团 ...

Core Insights - The real estate market continues to show signs of bottoming out, with 10 companies achieving over 100 billion yuan in sales for the year [3] - 24 companies reported year-on-year growth in performance, with some experiencing significant recovery [3] - Central and state-owned enterprises performed well overall, with 42% of them reporting performance growth [3] - High-quality properties and urban renewal have become new focal points, prompting companies to enhance their internal capabilities [3] Company Performance - The top companies by operational amount include: - Greentown China: 251.9 billion yuan - China Overseas Land & Investment: 239.2 billion yuan - Poly Developments: 232.8 billion yuan - China Resources Land: 210.1 billion yuan - China Merchants Shekou: 185.8 billion yuan [5][6] - The top companies by operational area include: - Greentown China: 1,208 million square meters - Poly Developments: 1,126.2 million square meters - China Overseas Land & Investment: 1,044.2 million square meters - Vanke: 950.7 million square meters - China Merchants Shekou: 688 million square meters [5][6] Market Trends - The overall market is characterized by a continued bottoming trend, with a focus on quality properties and urban renewal as key areas for growth [3] - Companies are encouraged to strengthen their internal capabilities to adapt to changing market conditions [3]

2026.01. 01 本文字数：3537，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 | 第一财经 孙梦凡 自2021年下半年以来，房地产本轮调整已有四年有余。刚刚过去的2025年，是行业迈入企稳修复的 关键一年，也是政策从"托底纾困"转向全面提振信心、激活住房需求的一年。 这一年，行业多项关键数据，显示房地产"止跌回稳"出现一定成效。机构数据显示，2025年商品房 成交规模降幅较上年收窄，预计全年销售面积约8.9亿平方米、销售金额8.4万亿元，其中四季度百城 新房成交面积环比增长4%、12月环比增长18%。 2025年，房地产行业的政策主基调是清理限制性措施、促进住房需求释放。 根据中指研究院监测，截至12月1日，全国有超210省市（县）出台政策约560条，政策优化频次较 2024年有所下降，主要围绕激活需求、优化供给两方面落地具体举措。 楼市情绪的真实"温度计"——二手房交易市场，今年则真正进入"市场化深水区"，新房市场与二手房 形成泾渭分明的运行体系，价格、客户等特征均大幅分化。受挂牌量高企等因素影响，存量房价格持 续下调，刚需房源成为交易主力，并带动成交量提升。 "在一系列政策干预下，2025年住宅市场暂时遏制了螺旋 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry has shown signs of stabilization and recovery in 2025 after a prolonged adjustment period since the second half of 2021, with policies shifting from "support and relief" to boosting confidence and activating housing demand [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, the total sales area of commercial housing is expected to be approximately 890 million square meters, with a sales amount of 8.4 trillion yuan, reflecting a narrowing decline compared to the previous year [1] - The fourth quarter saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% in new housing transaction area across 100 cities, with December experiencing a significant 18% increase [1][5] - The second-hand housing market has become a major battleground, with a total transaction area of approximately 214 million square meters in 30 key cities, surpassing new housing transactions by 1.85 times, marking a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2% [7] Group 2: Policy Changes - The main policy direction in 2025 focused on clearing restrictive measures and promoting housing demand, with over 560 policy measures introduced across more than 210 provinces and cities [2] - Key measures included optimizing public housing fund loans, increasing home purchase subsidies, and reducing housing transaction taxes to lower costs and stimulate demand [2] - Beijing's new policies further relaxed restrictions on home purchases and loans, setting a precedent for other cities to follow suit in removing unreasonable limitations [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The new housing market has seen a significant decline in overall transaction volume, dropping nearly 50% from the peak in 2021, with only ten companies achieving sales exceeding 100 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [6] - The demand for larger homes has increased, with over 30% of new home transactions in 2025 being for units larger than 120 square meters [5] - The second-hand housing market has shown a clear recovery trend, with major cities like Beijing and Shanghai seeing significant increases in high-value transactions [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is expected to enter a phase of "weak recovery, gradual balance, and deep differentiation" in 2026, with ongoing efforts to address structural inventory issues and stabilize market confidence [12] - The government is likely to continue implementing targeted policies to stimulate demand, particularly in areas such as urban village renovations and support for low-income homebuyers [11] - The overall housing demand in urban areas is projected to be around 4.98 billion square meters during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating potential for future growth in the real estate sector [11]

Core Insights - The luxury housing market in first-tier cities is experiencing significant growth, particularly in Shanghai, where sales of high-end properties have surged in 2025 [1][3][4] Group 1: Shanghai Market Performance - In 2025, Shanghai's luxury housing market saw over 1,300 transactions for properties priced above 40 million yuan, totaling over 800 billion yuan in sales [4] - The total sales amount for new residential properties priced above 30 million yuan in Shanghai has exceeded 1 trillion yuan, comparable to Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen combined [3][5] - Shanghai contributed 59.4% of the total sales volume for new homes priced above 30 million yuan across 30 major cities in the first half of 2025 [6] Group 2: Notable Projects in Shanghai - The top-selling luxury projects in Shanghai from January to November 2025 include Shanghai One, Jinling Huating, and Feiyun Yufu, with average prices reaching up to 6,223 million yuan [7] - The Jinling Huating project sold out 158 units in just 3 hours, generating sales of 92.34 billion yuan, setting a record for the highest single launch sales in Shanghai [6][7] Group 3: Beijing Market Dynamics - Beijing's luxury market has seen a supply of 6,240 units priced above 15 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase in transactions by 10.6% [12][17] - The recent land auction in Beijing achieved a total transaction amount of approximately 1,427.42 billion yuan, indicating strong market activity [12] Group 4: Shenzhen Market Highlights - Shenzhen's luxury market closed 2025 with significant sales, including the successful launch of the CITIC Xinyue Bay project, which achieved over 100 billion yuan in sales within two hours [19] - The total sales from three major luxury projects in Shenzhen approached 300 billion yuan, showcasing robust demand [18][21] Group 5: Guangzhou Market Trends - Guangzhou's luxury market saw over 6,000 transactions for properties priced above 10 million yuan, reflecting a 42% year-on-year increase [22] - The top luxury project, Poly Yuexi Bay, achieved sales of 110.89 billion yuan, indicating a shift in market demand towards high-end properties [22][24] - The upcoming supply of luxury projects in Guangzhou is expected to enhance competition and attract high-net-worth individuals [25]

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2025 年第 52 周） 推荐（维持） 北京出台楼市新政，新房周成交环比上涨 行业研究 房地产 2025 年 12 月 31 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | -5.3% | 6.6% | -1.5% | | 相对表现 | -8.1% | -11.5% | -17.8% | -13% -2% 9% 21% 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/08 25/10 25/12 2024-12-31~2025-12-30 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《房地产行业重大事项点评：北京楼市再宽松》 2025-12-26 《房地产行业周报（2025 年第 5 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [7]. Core Insights - The new housing value-added tax policy, effective from January 1, 2026, aims to lower transaction costs by reducing the tax rate from 5% to 3% for properties held for less than two years, which is expected to enhance the efficiency of second-hand housing transactions and stabilize the real estate market [1][2][3]. - The policy reflects the central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market and is anticipated to create opportunities for capable real estate companies by improving the demand-side replacement chain and optimizing supply-side quality [1][4]. Summary by Sections Tax Rate and Policy Adjustments - The new policy significantly reduces the short-term holding tax rate from 5% to 3%, representing a 40% decrease in transaction costs. For a property priced at 1 million (excluding tax), the tax burden decreases from 53,000 to 31,000 [2]. - The policy eliminates regional differences in tax exemptions, standardizing the exemption period to two years nationwide [2]. Market Dynamics and Demand - The adjustment primarily targets properties held for less than two years, which currently have low transaction willingness due to self-use demand. However, the policy is seen as a signal to stabilize demand and relax restrictions on short-term transactions [3]. - The report notes a shift in the market from new housing to second-hand housing, with a 5% year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions, while new housing transactions have decreased by 4% [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several real estate companies based on their creditworthiness, product quality, and operational capabilities. Key recommendations include: - Companies with strong credit and product quality such as China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, and Longfor Group [5][9]. - Companies with robust cash flow management during market adjustments like New City Holdings and Longfor Group [5]. - Local Hong Kong real estate firms benefiting from market recovery, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties and Link REIT [5]. - Property management companies with stable cash flow and dividend advantages like Greentown Service and China Resources Vientiane Life [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a recent policy change where the value-added tax (VAT) rate for housing sold within two years has been reduced from 5% to 3%, effective January 1, 2026. This aims to lower transaction costs and stimulate the second-hand housing market [5][6] - The report notes a significant decline in second-hand housing transaction volumes in major cities during the fourth quarter of 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 24.9% in Beijing, 19.4% in Shanghai, and 30.8% in Shenzhen for October-November [7][11][14] - The adjustment in VAT is expected to stabilize market expectations and promote overall recovery in the real estate sector, with specific recommendations for companies that are well-positioned to benefit from these changes [8] Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The VAT rate for housing sold within two years is reduced to 3%, while sales of properties held for two years or more remain exempt from VAT. This change is projected to save approximately 9.25 million yuan in VAT for a property priced at 5 million yuan [5][6] Market Trends - The report indicates a notable drop in second-hand housing transactions in major cities, with cumulative year-on-year increases of 11.0%, 18.5%, and 28.7% for the first nine months of 2025, followed by significant declines in October and November [7][11][14] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and the ability to cater to improving customer demands, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Land & Investment, and China Resources Land. It also suggests companies that benefit from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The recent policy change on the value-added tax (VAT) for personal housing sales, reducing the rate from 5% to 3% for properties sold within two years, aims to lower seller transaction costs and help restore the transaction chain [2][4]. - The real estate industry has undergone significant adjustments since 2021, with front-end indicators (sales, land acquisition, and construction) declining by 50-70%, and back-end indicators (completion and investment) dropping by 30-40% [4]. - The cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices from July 2021 to September 2025 is 37%, surpassing the average decline of 34% across 42 countries [4]. - The report emphasizes the need for policies to support demand-side recovery to stabilize the market, particularly in core cities [4]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The new VAT policy effective from January 1, 2026, will exempt individuals from paying VAT on properties sold after two years of purchase, while those selling within two years will pay a reduced rate of 3% [5]. Market Analysis - The report highlights the critical need for repairing household balance sheets to address the ongoing challenges in the real estate market, with expectations for further supportive policies to stabilize the market [4]. - Anticipated policy measures include reductions in mortgage rates, optimization of purchase restrictions and taxes in first-tier cities, accelerated land acquisition, and support for real estate financing [4]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies two key investment opportunities: the revaluation of quality commercial real estate and the emergence of strong product capabilities in core cities [4]. - Recommended companies for investment include: 1. Commercial real estate: China Resources Land, New World Development, Kerry Properties, Hang Lung Properties, Longfor Group, with a focus on Swire Properties and New World Development. 2. Quality housing companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, and China Jinmao. 3. Undervalued recovery companies: Jianfa Shares, China Merchants Shekou, Yuexiu Property, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments. 4. Property management: China Resources Vientiane, Greentown Services, China Merchants Jinling, Poly Property, and China Overseas Property. 5. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W [4].