Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant rise in beauty and personal care stocks, with Nobon Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong market interest and investor confidence in this sector [1] - Other companies in the beauty care sector, such as Jieya Co., Ltd., Shuiyang Co., Ltd., and Huaye Fragrance, also experienced notable gains, with increases exceeding 10% [1] - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the total retail sales of consumer goods in April grew by 5.7% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.5 percentage points compared to March, indicating a positive trend in consumer spending [1] Group 2 - The retail sales of cosmetics specifically increased by 9.8%, significantly outpacing the overall growth rate of consumer goods, suggesting a robust demand for beauty products [1]

上 市 公 司 美容护理 相关研究 证券分析师 2025 年 06 月 04 日 豪悦护理 (605009) ——婴裤主业修复+洁婷品牌发力，打开成长空间 报告原因：有新的信息需要补充 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 65.25 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 71.96/31.39 | | 市净率 | 3.0 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.61 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 10,049 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,361.98/10,057.17 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 21.99 | | 资产负债率% | 34.41 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 154/154 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 06-03 07-03 08-03 09-03 10-03 11-03 12-03 01 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CSI Tencent Ji'an Value 100 A-Share Index has shown positive performance, with a recent increase of 1.04% and a year-to-date rise of 1.81% [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The CSI Tencent Ji'an Value 100 A-Share Index closed at 2919.43 points with a trading volume of 53.709 billion [1] - Over the past month, the index has increased by 3.86%, and over the last three months, it has risen by 1.39% [1] Group 2: Index Composition - The index is composed of 100 listed companies selected based on their investment value assessed by Tencent and Ji'an Jinxin's evaluation committee [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include: - Chao Hong Ji (2.75%) - Guotai Junan (2.22%) - Haili Heavy Industry (1.61%) - Haoyue Nursing (1.58%) - Yinghantong (1.38%) - BYD (1.25%) - Zhengmei Machine (1.24%) - Hisense Visual (1.21%) - Taotao Automotive (1.17%) - Stanley (1.16%) [1] Group 3: Market Distribution - The index's holdings are distributed as follows: - Shanghai Stock Exchange: 52.76% - Shenzhen Stock Exchange: 47.24% [1] Group 4: Industry Breakdown - The industry composition of the index is as follows: - Industrial: 32.42% - Consumer Discretionary: 13.16% - Materials: 10.47% - Healthcare: 9.58% - Information Technology: 7.43% - Consumer Staples: 6.46% - Communication Services: 6.33% - Financials: 6.06% - Utilities: 5.46% - Energy: 2.63% [2] Group 5: Index Adjustment - The index samples are adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with special circumstances allowing for temporary adjustments [2] Group 6: Fund Tracking - Public funds tracking the CSI Tencent Ji'an include: Galaxy Regular Investment Treasure [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on new consumption sectors, particularly in pet products, AI glasses, and personal care, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in these areas [5][13][19]. Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of new consumption sectors, including the pet products market, AI glasses, and personal care, with specific companies recommended for investment [5][13][19]. - It emphasizes the resilience of domestic brands in the personal care sector, driven by the rise of local products and consumer demand [13][14]. - The report notes the expected stabilization of paper prices due to recent price increase notices and supply adjustments, suggesting a potential recovery in the paper industry [24][25]. - The housing market is projected to gradually stabilize, supported by government policies aimed at promoting healthy development, which is expected to positively impact the home furnishings sector [26][27][28]. Summary by Sections New Consumption Sectors - The report identifies key players in the pet products sector, such as Tianyuan Pet, Yiyi Co., Yuanfei Pet, and Chaoyun Group, highlighting their strategic acquisitions and market positions [5][6][7][8]. - In the AI glasses segment, companies like Kangnait Optical, Mingyue Lens, and Boshi Glasses are noted for their potential benefits from new product launches and technological advancements [10][12]. - The personal care sector is characterized by strong domestic brands like Baiya Co., Haoyue Care, and Dengkang Oral Care, which are expected to thrive amid rising consumer preferences for local products [13][14]. Paper Industry - The report mentions that Arauco has announced price increases for cultural paper and white cardboard, indicating a potential stabilization in paper prices [24]. - It also discusses the long-term supply-demand improvements expected in the paper industry, recommending companies with integrated operations and strong management, such as Sun Paper [25]. Housing and Home Furnishings - The report outlines government initiatives to support the real estate market, which are anticipated to enhance the valuation of home furnishing companies like Sophia and Oppein [26][27]. - It highlights the positive impact of the "old-for-new" subsidy policies on the home furnishings sector, with significant sales growth reported in related products [28].

Summary of the Conference Call for 豪悦护理 Company Overview - 豪悦护理 officially consolidated 思宝护理 in January 2025, which owns brands such as 洁婷, 美月健, and 全因爱. This move aims to expand the company's proprietary brand product matrix, creating a dual-driven growth model of OEM and proprietary brands [2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - 豪悦护理 has significant advantages in OEM business, particularly in baby hygiene products and diapers. The company has stabilized its production share through collaborations with multiple brands and benefits from domestic brands focusing on brand operations and foreign brands' increasing demand for composite core products [2][5]. - The company is one of the earliest in China to produce and develop composite core diapers and women's sanitary napkins, with R&D investment exceeding that of peers, showcasing a notable technological advantage [2][5]. - Through technological empowerment, 豪悦护理 has launched high-priced new products under the 洁婷 brand, such as the 双优磁悬浮立体护围 and 吸引力 products, and is accelerating new product promotion with financial support [2][6]. - For the year 2025, the consolidation of 思宝护理 is expected to significantly enhance 豪悦护理's apparent growth rate, with market consensus estimating a valuation of approximately 20 times PE, corresponding to a profit growth rate of about 25%, indicating strong valuation digestion capability [2][7]. - Post-2026, as team integration deepens, the headquarters will further empower 洁婷 in product technology and production efficiency, gradually revealing its growth potential and improving profitability [2][7]. Additional Important Points - 洁婷 currently has a low profit base but ample room for cost improvement. The introduction of high-end products is expected to enhance profit elasticity. Despite a potential short-term decline in new consumer valuations, the recommendation rating for 豪悦 remains positive [3][7]. - Recent acquisitions include the purchase of 花王's Hefei factory and an intention to acquire 大王's Nantong factory, although the latter has not yet been completed. These acquisitions have expanded the company's proprietary brand product matrix and reinforced the dual-driven growth structure of OEM and proprietary brands [4].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference discusses the "Baby Economy" and "Silver Economy" in China, highlighting the generational collision and dual-track consumption trends [1][2][3]. Baby Economy Insights - **Birth Rate Recovery**: In 2024, the number of newborns in China is expected to reach 9.54 million, an increase of 500,000 from 2023, indicating a recovery in birth rates due to improved fertility intentions and government incentives [2][3]. - **Government Policies**: Local governments, such as in Tianmen, Hubei, are offering substantial subsidies (up to 285,100 yuan for families with three children), leading to a 17% increase in local birth rates, significantly higher than the national average of 5.8% [2]. - **Raising Costs**: The average cost of raising a child aged 0-17 is approximately 538,000 yuan, which is 6.3 times the per capita GDP, significantly higher than in developed countries like Germany and the USA [3]. - **Market Trends**: Despite a decline in overall market volume, the average transaction value in the maternal and infant market is steadily increasing, reflecting a shift towards more scientific and refined parenting concepts [2][3]. - **Product Preferences**: Over 80% of mothers conduct research before making purchasing decisions, with a preference for branded products that emphasize quality and nutritional content [2][3]. Market Performance - **Baby Care Market**: The baby skincare market is leading, with Tmall sales projected to reach 4.113 billion yuan from October 2023 to September 2024. Leading brands are expanding their market share, while smaller brands are competing through differentiation [3][4]. - **Diaper Industry**: Domestic brands are catching up with foreign brands in product quality, particularly with the introduction of composite core diapers that better meet local market needs [7]. - **Children's Clothing**: The newborn clothing segment prioritizes safety and material quality, while older children's clothing is becoming more personalized and diverse [8]. Silver Economy Insights - **Elderly Consumer Trends**: The elderly population is becoming a new driving force in tourism consumption, with a focus on travel and leisure rather than traditional homebound lifestyles [12][13]. - **Tourism Adaptations**: Tourist attractions are adapting to the needs of older visitors by enhancing accessibility and offering tailored services, such as the implementation of barrier-free facilities [12][14]. - **Market Growth**: The silver tourism market is diversifying and customizing offerings, with a notable increase in elderly visitors participating in specialized travel packages [13][14]. Company Strategies and Performance - **Key Players**: Companies like Kidswant and Aiyingshi are highlighted for their growth strategies, including expanding store networks and enhancing online sales channels [17][18]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Recommended companies in the baby economy include Steady Medical, Haoyue Nursing, and Runben Co., which are well-positioned to capitalize on market trends and consumer preferences [22]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: The competitive landscape is shifting, with leading companies expected to gain market share during the current industry reshuffle [5][6]. Conclusion - The current trends in the baby economy focus on product innovation and channel development, while the silver economy emphasizes the speed of service ecosystem construction to meet the evolving needs of elderly consumers [23]. Companies that can effectively address these demands are likely to experience significant growth opportunities in the future [23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pet supplies sector, AI glasses, and the home improvement market, highlighting potential acquisition opportunities and new product launches [2][6][27]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the resilience of essential consumer goods in the personal care sector, with a notable trend towards domestic brands, particularly during promotional events like the 618 sales [6][14]. - The pet supplies market is experiencing consolidation opportunities, with companies like Tianyuan Pet and Yiyi Co. being recommended for their strong market positions and growth potential [6][7]. - The AI glasses segment is expected to see significant product launches in the latter half of 2025, driven by collaborations between major tech companies [12][20]. - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies on the real estate market, which is anticipated to stabilize and boost related sectors, including home improvement [27][28]. Summary by Sections New Consumer Trends - The report identifies the pet supplies sector as a key area for mergers and acquisitions, recommending companies such as Tianyuan Pet and Yiyi Co. for their strong market presence and growth prospects [6][7]. - AI glasses are positioned for growth with new product launches expected from major players like Google and XREAL, indicating a robust market expansion [12][20]. Personal Care Sector - The personal care market shows resilience, with domestic brands gaining traction, particularly during promotional periods [14]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Baiya Co., Haoyue Care, and Dengkang Oral Care, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing consumer trends [14][15]. Home Improvement and Real Estate - The report notes that government initiatives are likely to support the real estate market, leading to improved conditions for the home improvement sector [27][28]. - Companies like Sophia and Oppein Home are highlighted for their potential to benefit from the anticipated recovery in the housing market [23][27]. Paper Industry - The report mentions a price increase in the paper sector, with expectations for price stabilization due to supply adjustments [25]. - Recommended companies in this space include Sun Paper, which is noted for its integrated operations and cost advantages [25]. Export and Trade - The report discusses the impact of tariff changes on exports, particularly in the light industrial sector, with a focus on companies that have a strong competitive edge [6][20].

Core Viewpoint - The recovery of newborn population in 2024 has provided relief to maternal and infant-related listed companies, but long-term growth remains dependent on overcoming reliance on population dividends [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - In Q1 2024, Kidswant (孩子王) reported revenue of 2.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and net profit of 31.08 million yuan, up 166% [1]. - Aiyingshi (爱婴室) achieved Q1 2024 revenue of 860 million yuan, growing 6.6% year-on-year, with net profit of 6.694 million yuan, up 6.1% [1]. - The newborn population in China for 2024 was 9.54 million, an increase of 520,000 from the previous year, positively impacting the maternal and infant market [1]. Group 2: Revenue Drivers - The growth in revenue for Kidswant and Aiyingshi was primarily driven by core business milk powder sales, with revenues of 5.07 billion yuan and 2.1 billion yuan respectively, both showing year-on-year growth of 9.4% and 9.5% [2]. - In Q1 2025, Aiyingshi's milk powder revenue reached 530 million yuan, a 10.9% increase year-on-year, while sales of other products like toys also saw growth [2]. - Haoyue Care (豪悦护理) reported a 4.3% increase in infant hygiene product revenue to 2.06 billion yuan in 2024, contributing to an overall revenue of 2.93 billion yuan, reversing a decline from the previous year [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and Challenges - Analysts indicate that while the recovery in newborn numbers has contributed to performance, companies must diversify away from reliance on population growth due to the long-term decline in birth rates [3]. - Companies are exploring transformation paths, with Haoyue Care investing in adult incontinence products to capitalize on the aging population trend [3]. - The management of Yili has indicated potential slight declines in birth rates in 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the demographic landscape [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the beauty and personal care industry, highlighting the continued growth of leading domestic brands [2]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector has shown a divergence in performance, with leading domestic brands achieving good growth due to their competitive pricing, differentiated products, and effective online operations [1][10]. - The upcoming 618 shopping festival is expected to further catalyze growth for domestic brands, particularly in the cosmetics sector [1][6]. Summary by Sections Cosmetics - In 2024 and Q1 2025, leading domestic brands continued to show strong growth, with significant revenue increases reported: - Molybdenum Biological: +33% revenue, +32% net profit - Giant Biological: +57% revenue, +42% net profit - Upper Beauty: +62% revenue, +69% net profit [11][13]. - The overall performance of the cosmetics sector is characterized by a mix of growth and decline among various companies, with some like Proya showing resilience in profit despite revenue slowdowns [12][13]. - The report suggests focusing on brands with strong single-product strategies and innovative ingredients, such as Giant Biological and Molybdenum Biological, as well as those with strong brand positioning like Mao Geping [1][6]. Personal Care - The personal care segment has seen robust performance from leading domestic brands, with notable revenue growth in Q1 2025: - Baiya: +30% - Stable Medical: +36% - Hao Yue Care: +42% [6][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product upgrades and channel expansion for these brands, which have outperformed OEM companies [1][6]. - The ongoing trend of online expansion and the shift towards mid-to-high-end branding remains strong, with companies like Baiya and Stable Medical showing promising developments [6][12]. Market Trends - The overall market for cosmetics in early 2025 showed a slight increase in retail sales, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% in the first four months [23]. - Online platforms like Tmall and Douyin have seen varying performance, with Douyin showing higher growth rates in certain categories compared to Tmall [26][29]. Key Brand Performance - Key brands have demonstrated significant growth in both Tmall and Douyin platforms, with notable increases in GMV for brands like Mao Geping and Kefu Mei [33]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, with domestic brands increasingly capturing market share from international brands due to their pricing and innovative marketing strategies [1][6].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the beauty and personal care sector continuing its strong performance, leading the industry indices with a 2.5% increase [1] - Since early April, the beauty and personal care industry index has accumulated a nearly 25% increase, making it the top performer among all 31 Shenwan first-level industry indices, with a year-to-date increase of 17.3%, outperforming the second-place automotive industry index by 4.6 percentage points [3][5] - The beauty and personal care industry is experiencing stable growth driven by continuous policy benefits, consumption recovery, and escalating trade tensions, with domestic brands gaining market share due to high cost-performance and refined operations [5] Group 2 - The recent 2025 Shanghai Beauty Expo introduced new products from listed companies like Proya and Fulejia, further boosting the beauty and personal care sector's momentum [6] - The stock with the highest increase in the beauty and personal care industry index this year is Lafang Jiahua, which has surged 98.62%, while other companies like Runben, Dengkang, Marubi, Haoyue, Qingdao King, and Shanghai Jahwa have also seen increases exceeding 50% [6] - Despite being the largest company by market capitalization in the industry, Aimeike has seen a year-to-date decline of 0.87%, with its first-quarter revenue and net profit showing negative growth for the first time since its listing, and its gross margin dropping to a record low of 93.85% [6]