Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the long-term value of wind power operators despite short-term performance drag due to market entry challenges [5][7] - The company has shown a revenue increase of 0.93% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but net profit decreased by 4.44% due to falling electricity prices and increased depreciation [7] - The report highlights the company's strong growth in power generation, with a 9.26% increase in total generation in Q1 2025, driven by new installations and favorable wind conditions [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 12,802 million RMB - 2024: 12,576 million RMB - 2025E: 13,987 million RMB (11.2% growth) - 2026E: 14,770 million RMB (5.6% growth) - 2027E: 15,480 million RMB (4.8% growth) [6][8] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 2,240 million RMB - 2024: 1,925 million RMB - 2025E: 2,317 million RMB (20.4% growth) - 2026E: 2,457 million RMB (6.1% growth) - 2027E: 2,522 million RMB (2.6% growth) [6][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.32 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.5 [6][8] Market Position and Outlook - The company has a total market capitalization of 16,147.62 million HKD and a circulating market capitalization of 5,552.38 million HKD [3] - The report indicates that the company’s receivables are approximately 1.54 times its current market value, reflecting strong recognition from state-owned insurance capital [7] - The report expresses optimism regarding the long-term value of wind power operators, citing advantages over solar power in terms of output and operational cycles [7]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the power industry, emphasizing the shift towards a more relaxed supply-demand balance and the importance of stable profitability in the sector [1][7]. Supply - The supply shock caused by the issuance of green certificates (绿证) is expected to end by the end of 2025, as the market has achieved full coverage of green certificate issuance across various renewable energy sources [12][13]. - In 2024, a total of 4.734 billion green certificates were issued, with 3.158 billion being tradable, marking a significant increase compared to previous years [4][16]. - The green certificate market is anticipated to see a gradual improvement in supply-demand dynamics as the backlog of issued certificates begins to expire starting in 2026 [4][6]. Demand - The introduction of mandatory green electricity consumption requirements for high-energy-consuming industries is expected to drive growth in green certificate consumption [5][22]. - In 2024, the trading volume of green certificates was only 14.12% of the issued amount, indicating a lack of consumption momentum, but recent policies are expected to enhance this [5][24]. - High-energy industries accounted for 39.73% of total electricity consumption in 2024, with significant potential for increased green certificate demand as consumption requirements are enforced [27][28]. Outlook - The green certificate market is projected to experience a "pain period" in 2025, but with the easing of supply pressures and the implementation of mandatory consumption policies, prices are expected to stabilize [6][32]. - By 2030, the issuance of green certificates is expected to reach approximately 4 billion, driven by stable growth in renewable energy generation and increasing coverage rates [21][20]. Beneficiary Stocks - The report suggests selecting high-quality, low-valuation renewable energy operators as beneficiaries, including companies like 大唐新能源 (Datang Renewable), 龙源电力 (Longyuan Power), and 中国电力 (China Power) [36][37].

金十数据整理：每日港股市场要闻速递（5月14日 周三） 重要新闻 10. 众安在线(06060.HK)：前4个月原保险保费收入总额约109.35亿元，同比增长12.74%。 11. 微创机器人-B (02252.HK)：以每股15.50港元的价格配售约2500万股新H股，净筹资约3.82亿港元。 12. 融创中国(01918.HK)：境外债务重组计划聆讯定于2025年9月15日召开。 个股新闻 1. 京东集团-SW(09618.HK)：第一季度归母净利润108.9亿元，同比增长52.73%。 2. 腾讯音乐-SW(01698.HK)：一季度权益持有人应占净利润为42.9亿元，同比增长201.8%。 7. 华润置地 (01109.HK)：前4月累计合同销售金额约685.0亿元，同比减少4.9%；4月销售额173.0亿元， 同比减少18.7%。 1. 国务院关税税则委员会：调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施。 8. 新城发展(01030.HK)：前4个月累计合同销售金额约68.63亿元，同比减少56.15%。 2. 五部门约谈京东、美团、饿了么等外卖平台企业，要求公平有序竞争。 9. 大唐新能源(01798. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The new regulations for public funds are expected to lead to an increased allocation towards the utility sector, which is anticipated to benefit from a shift in investment strategies focusing on the "risk-return ratio" [6][4] - The utility sector, particularly hydropower, is projected to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the new policies, as they are characterized by low covariance with the market, leading to potential valuation increases [6][4] - Historical data shows that major hydropower companies have consistently ranked in the top percentiles for risk-return ratios, indicating strong performance relative to market volatility [6][7] Summary by Sections Sector Performance - The report highlights the underallocation of public funds in the utility and environmental sectors compared to their index weights, suggesting a significant opportunity for investment [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends prioritizing investments in resilient hydropower companies and undervalued thermal power companies that benefit from declining coal prices [6] - Specific stock recommendations include: 1. Hydropower: Guotou Power, Changjiang Power, Chuanwei Energy 2. Wind Power: Longyuan Power (H), Xintian Green Energy, Datang Renewable, CGN New Energy 3. Thermal Power: Waneng Power, Shanghai Electric, China Resources Power, Huadian International, Sheneng Co [6]

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 12 日 投资要点： 证券分析师 A 股财报画像的推演：杠铃策略延续 电力：区域火电公司业绩兑现度高 136 号文利好存量绿电资产 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 从 2024 年年报来看，A 股市场强预期、弱现实背景并未改变，从 2021 年下半年开始（也正 是沪深 300 阶段性见顶回落的时间点），A 股市场预期与现实的落差即开始加剧，最近两年 愈发突出。回顾历年所在时点对当年归母净利润的 wind 一致预期全 A 样本加总数据，年初高 开与逐季下修形成鲜明反差，而最终业绩又低于已然下修后的预期。 2024 年 A 股实际归母净利润达到年初预期的 79%，较 2023 年的 77%略有好转，但是仍处于 历史低位。换言之，对于个股而言，只要最终业绩达到年初预期的八成就算超预期了。我们 认为这是近年来红利资产持续上涨的根本原因，业绩稳定性权重胜过业绩向上弹性。 从金融学理论看红利行情的本质：对宏观经济本身无谓多空，而是对波动性的重新定价，从而 享受了折现率收窄的利好，而折现率下降不完全来自于无风险利率下降。红利 ...

华润新能源（汕头）有限公司投资建设的国际海上风电培训中心正建设海上安全救生实训场馆、直升机 水下救援实训平台、登高实训平台、机舱实训平台以及航海仿真平台等，毕业生可同步获取GWO、 OPITO国际认证，实现"持证出海"。 校企协同创新破解"卡脖子"难题 汕头市正在建设的40MW级风电机组电气及动力学六自由度实验平台，突破75MNm级扭矩加载、 120MVA电网模拟等"卡脖子"技术，可为大兆瓦机组提供验证场景。这个已纳入国家重点研发计划"高 性能制造技术与重大装备"重点专项2024年度项目，已吸引汕头大学、上海交大、华南理工等顶尖院校 共建科研联合体，共同解决科研基础设施研发和应用中面临的关键技术难题。 化学与精细化工广东省实验室下设新能源材料与发展研究中心，重点突破电解水制氢、制过氧化氢等风 电消纳技术，为绿氢产业链延伸提供科学支撑。目前，正与汕头华电发电有限公司推动合作"促进海上 风电和火电耦合发展的新型电解水示范项目"。 特色学科培育风电生力军 瞄准产业人才缺口，汕头职业技术学院开设机电一体化风电方向，与上海电气共建实训基地，学生可实 操风机整机装配，打造整机全链条实训条件。汕头技师学院更是创新设立风电场 ...

据公告，本次举牌东航物流股票的参与方为中邮保险，受托管理人为中邮保险资产管理有限公司。中邮 保险与珠海普东股权投资有限公司(下称珠海普东)签署《股份转让协议书》，中邮保险受让获得珠海普 东持有的东航物流7942.01万股无限售流通股，约占该上市公司总股本的5.00%。 公告显示，中邮保险将支付的转让总价款为8.69亿元，占中邮保险2025年一季末总资产的比例为 0.14%，符合监管要求。 对于本次权益变动的目的，东航物流此前披露的简式权益变动报告书显示，中邮保险称是基于自身发展 投资需求和支持上市公司持续健康发展的规划安排进行长期投资。并表示，受托管理人中邮保险资管将 密切关注企业的经营状况及市场后续反应，不排除在后期继续追加投资的可能。 东航物流官网简介显示，该公司是一家现代综合物流服务企业，总部位于上海，于2021年6月9日在上海 证券交易所主板挂牌上市，致力于为全球客户提供安全、高效、精准、便捷的物流服务。东航物流旗下 拥有中国货运航空、东航快递、东航运输、东航供应链、东航冷链等子公司及境内外多个站点及分支机 构。 中邮保险是中国邮政集团有限公司控股的寿险公司，公司总部位于北京，注册资本为286.63亿 ...

Group 1: Capital Market Stability and Activity - The government is implementing measures such as lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, which is expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market [2] - The policy interest rate will be reduced by 0.1 percentage points, leading to a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [2] - Historical data shows that the A-share market tends to respond positively to reserve requirement cuts, with an average increase of 0.17% in the Shanghai Composite Index the day after a cut [2] Group 2: Long-term Capital Inflows - The government plans to expand the pilot scope for insurance funds' long-term investments, injecting an additional 60 billion yuan into the market [3] - Regulatory adjustments will lower the risk factors for stock investments by 10%, encouraging insurance companies to increase their market participation [3] - A target has been set for large state-owned insurance companies to invest 30% of their new premiums in A-shares starting in 2025, potentially bringing in 0.73 trillion yuan if the equity investment ratio increases by 1% [4] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Real Estate Support - Policies are being introduced to stabilize the real estate market, including a reduction in personal housing loan rates by 0.25 percentage points, which lowers the five-year rate for first-time homebuyers from 2.85% to 2.6% [6] - A 500 billion yuan "service consumption and elderly care re-loan" fund is being established to support consumption and promote credit for service sectors [6] - The consumption ETF has seen significant inflows, with over 2.2 billion yuan net inflow in the last 60 trading days, indicating strong market interest [7] Group 4: Development of New Productive Forces - The monetary policy will increase the quota for loans aimed at technological innovation and transformation from 500 billion yuan to 800 billion yuan [8] - The government is expected to introduce further reforms for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market to support new productive forces [9] - A new "technology board" in the bond market is being created to facilitate financing for tech enterprises, with low-cost re-loan support from the central bank [9]

Group 1: Power Generation Sector - The profitability of thermal power operators is improving in 2024 mainly due to the decline in coal prices, but there is regional differentiation, with Guangdong's thermal power operators experiencing worsening profitability due to a relaxed power supply-demand situation and further declines in market electricity prices [1][4] - Northern thermal power units show greater profitability improvement, with representative companies like Datang Power, Jingtou Energy, and Jingneng Power benefiting from a low base in 2023 [1][4] - In terms of profit per kilowatt-hour, Datang Power's coal-fired profit is 1.3 cents/kWh, while Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Guodian Power report profits of 1.9, 2.6, and 3.7 cents/kWh respectively [1][4] Group 2: Hydropower - Hydropower performance is stable, with a reaffirmation of its investment value; improved rainfall in 2024 is expected to contribute to increased electricity generation in early 2025 [2] - The pricing advantage of local hydropower remains compared to other local power sources, and the value of hydropower as a regulatory power source has yet to be fully priced [2] Group 3: Wind Power - Wind power operators are facing short-term performance declines due to poor wind conditions, while solar power operators are affected by declining electricity prices and increased curtailment rates [3] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term value of wind power operators is emphasized, with a recommendation to focus on those with better investment potential [3] Group 4: Coal Industry - The coal industry is under pressure due to declining prices, with Q1 2025 coal prices continuing to fall; the average price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal is reported at 721 RMB/ton, down 12.3% month-on-month and 20.0% year-on-year [11][12] - The overall performance of the coal sector is declining, with 28 listed coal companies reporting a total revenue of 273.9 billion RMB, down 17.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 30.18 billion RMB, down 30.5% year-on-year [11][12] - The upcoming summer peak demand may help reduce inventory levels, potentially stabilizing coal prices [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the large energy sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the stable performance of hydropower, the negative impact of wind conditions on short-term performance, and the differentiation in thermal power profitability [6][31][37] Hydropower Summary - Hydropower performance is expected to be stable with improved rainfall in 2024, contributing to an increase in electricity generation in Q1 2025. The national rainfall is projected to be 9% above normal, with hydropower utilization hours increasing by 6.9% year-on-year [20][21] - Major hydropower companies are expected to see performance align with expectations, with notable growth in Q1 2025 for companies like Changjiang Power and Huaneng Hydropower [25][26] - The report highlights the importance of local hydropower pricing advantages and the stability of the business model and policy environment as key factors for investment [28][29] Renewable Energy Summary - Wind power operators are facing short-term performance declines due to poor wind conditions, while solar power operators are impacted by falling electricity prices and increased curtailment rates [31][36] - The report suggests focusing on long-term value in wind power operators despite current challenges, as the market is expected to favor those with sustainable development returns [36][37] Thermal Power Summary - The thermal power sector is experiencing improved profitability due to declining coal prices, although there is significant regional differentiation in performance [37] - The report notes that while northern thermal power operators are seeing better performance, regions like Guangdong are facing challenges due to market price declines [8][37] Investment Recommendations - The report provides three stock selection strategies: focusing on state-owned enterprises undergoing asset integration, selecting resilient hydropower assets, and identifying undervalued wind power operators [9][11] - Key recommended stocks include: - Hydropower: Guotou Power, Changjiang Power, Chuan Investment Energy - Wind Power: Longyuan Power, Xintian Green Energy, Datang Renewable - Thermal Power: Wan Energy, Shanghai Electric, Huaneng International [9]