Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the transportation industry, particularly segments such as express delivery, aviation, and regional shipping, which are expected to benefit from anti-involution policies and high certainty stocks [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments 2025 Performance and Trends - The transportation sector ranked low in performance among Shenwan's primary industries, with road, rail, and port sectors showing weakness, while shipping and aviation performed relatively well [2]. - The express delivery sector saw a strong performance in Q3 2025, largely due to national anti-involution policies initiated in July, although SF Express experienced significant declines in Q4 [2]. - The aviation sector's highlights included a conversion of passenger load factors to higher ticket prices, supported by low oil prices and effective supply management by airlines [2][7]. 2026 Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 emphasizes two main lines: sectors benefiting from anti-involution (aviation, express delivery, regional shipping) and high certainty stocks characterized by stable returns and high dividend yields [1][4]. - The express delivery industry is expected to shift away from high growth through price competition, focusing instead on customer service and maintaining existing client relationships [5][6]. Express Delivery Sector Insights - Since July 2025, the express delivery sector has seen significant improvements in profitability, with average prices per shipment increasing (e.g., YTO from 2.08 to 2.23 yuan) [5]. - The trend of sacrificing price for volume has been curtailed, leading to a more sustainable growth model [5]. - Companies like Zhongtong, YTO, and Shentong are highlighted for their improving profitability [6]. Aviation Sector Insights - The aviation industry's passenger load factors have been consistently improving since 2023, with a positive correlation between load factors and revenue per kilometer [8][9]. - The actual number of aircraft introduced in 2025 was lower than planned, indicating a cautious approach from airlines [7]. - The focus for 2026 will be on maintaining high load factors and converting them into higher ticket prices, which could enhance profitability [9]. Highway Sector Insights - The highway sector, traditionally a high dividend area, has seen stock price adjustments in the second half of 2025, particularly in Q3 [11][12]. - The sector is regaining investment value, with recommendations for companies like Wantong Expressway and Guangdong Expressway A, which have high dividend ratios and low debt levels [13]. Additional Important Points - Risks to the transportation industry include policy changes, economic slowdown, oil price fluctuations, and geopolitical risks, which could impact future growth [14]. - The overall sentiment is cautious but optimistic, with a focus on companies that can maintain stable dividends and low debt levels as key investment opportunities for 2026 [13].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that during the "Black Friday" shopping season, Jitu Express achieved a record high in daily collection volume in Brazil, and the first domestically produced heavy-duty eVTOL successfully completed its maiden flight [2][3] - In shipping, crude oil freight rates have declined from high levels, while freight rates on long-distance routes have shown mixed trends [3][15] - The report notes that the domestic logistics market is experiencing significant growth, particularly in emerging markets [3][25] Summary by Sections Industry Hot Events - Crude oil freight rates have decreased, with the China Import Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) reported at 2324.92 points, a slight increase of 0.1% from December 4 [3][15] - The first domestically produced heavy-duty eVTOL, AR-E800, successfully completed its maiden flight, marking a significant milestone in China's aviation industry [3][17] - Jitu Express reported a record high in daily collection volume in Brazil during the "Black Friday" shopping season, reflecting strong growth in logistics operations [3][25] High-Frequency Dynamic Data Tracking - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year [29] - In October 2025, the express delivery business volume increased by 7.90% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 4.70% [56] - The shipping market has shown mixed trends, with the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) reported at 1506.46 points, a week-on-week increase of 7.79% but a year-on-year decrease of 36.82% [43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [5] - It also highlights investment opportunities in low-altitude economy sectors, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [5] - The report emphasizes the potential in the express delivery sector, recommending companies like SF Express, Jitu Express, and Yunda [5]

Macro Research - The overall policy tone is moderate, with a lowered evaluation of external risks, emphasizing short-term domestic demand expansion and long-term internal capability building [3][4] - The macro policy for 2026 is expected to maintain a positive tone without excessive stimulus, focusing on "counter-cyclical" and "cross-cyclical" adjustments [3][4] Strategy Research - The market is anticipated to become more active, with a "transformation bull" market expected to rise after a prolonged period of sideways movement, particularly in technology, brokerage, insurance, and consumer sectors [2][8] - The cross-year offensive has begun, with a more optimistic outlook compared to market consensus, as the central economic work conference emphasizes consolidating and expanding economic stability [8][34] Food and Beverage Research - The dairy sector is expected to see a stabilization in raw milk prices, with a strong upward trend anticipated in 2026 due to reduced supply-side expansion and increased demand from processing capacity [11][12] - The beef cycle is expected to continue, with profitability elasticity for livestock companies anticipated due to the resonance of meat and milk cycles [11][12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the transportation industry [7]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is experiencing a rebound in public and business demand, with expectations for ticket price profitability to rise by 2026, suggesting a strategic investment during this super cycle [3][7]. - In the oil shipping sector, freight rates remain high, and the potential impact of Russia-Ukraine negotiations is expected to be limited, indicating a positive outlook for future market conditions [3][7]. - The airport duty-free segment anticipates increased competition among leading domestic and foreign companies, which is expected to drive growth in sales [3][7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation - Recent recovery in public and business demand is noted, with a focus on state-owned enterprises reducing "involution" competition. The aviation sector entered a traditional off-peak season from September, with public and business demand being a key factor influencing ticket prices. Ticket prices have shown a year-on-year increase due to the release of suppressed demand from the summer travel season [7]. - The report forecasts that by December, public and business passenger flow will increase, with ticket prices expected to continue rising year-on-year, although the growth rate may narrow. The report anticipates a significant reduction in losses by Q4 2025, with a full-year turnaround expected [7]. - Recommendations include major airlines such as Air China, Juneyao Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [7]. Oil Shipping - Freight rates are expected to maintain a high level, with the impact of U.S. sanctions on shadow fleets being a significant factor. The report highlights that recent increases in oil production from the Middle East and South America have driven VLCC TCE rates to rise, with Q4 2025 profits projected to reach a ten-year high [7]. - The report suggests that while seasonal factors may affect short-term freight rates, the overall upward trend for the year remains intact. The global increase in oil production is expected to drive demand for oil shipping beyond expectations [7]. - Recommended companies in this sector include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, China Merchants Jinling, and China Ship Leasing [7]. Airport Duty-Free - The report discusses a new round of duty-free contract adjustments at Shanghai Airport, anticipating that competition among leading domestic and foreign companies will drive sales growth. The new bidding results indicate a shift in the contract model, which may stabilize or enhance airport duty-free revenues [7]. - The introduction of foreign competitors and a revised commission structure are expected to improve the operational enthusiasm of duty-free operators, potentially leading to increased sales [7]. - Recommendations include Shanghai Airport and Beijing Capital International Airport [7].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 12 14 年 月 日 交通运输 快递、民航"反内卷"整治持续，VLCC 受制裁名单再扩大 周观点：中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行，会议明确"制 定全国统一大市场建设条例，深入整治'内卷式'竞争"。继续看好快递、 航空在"反内卷"整治下的投资机会。快递反内卷线：快递行业份额逐步 向头部快递集中，反内卷政策下恶性价格战得到有效遏制，头部快递份额、 利润同步提升，有望迎来双击。快递出海线：快递出海，天地广阔，海外 电商 GMV 爆发式增长，带动快递业务量迅猛增长，相关标的为极兔速递。 看好"反内卷"整治下航空板块中长期景气度：运力供给维持低增速、需 求持续恢复，供需缺口缩小叠加油价中枢下移及"反内卷"政策继续推进， 静待票价持续修复、航司盈利不断改善。 行情回顾：本周交通运输板块行业指数下跌 1.55%，跑输上证指数 1.21 个百分点（上证指数下跌 0.34%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类看，仅 公路货运板块上涨，涨幅为 4.76%；跌幅前三名分别为公交、高速公路、 铁路运输板块，对应跌幅分别为-4.97%、-2.49% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, specifically recommending China Power, China Shipbuilding, and China Ship Defense, while also highlighting Yangtze River and Songfa shares as potential investments [4]. Core Insights - The report indicates an improvement in new ship orders during November and December, reinforcing the logic of the replacement cycle. The strong second-hand ship prices are positively influencing the new ship market [4]. - The report notes that VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have exceeded expectations, with a current average of $114,420 per day, despite a slight week-on-week decline of 1%. The report anticipates significant upward potential for both charter rates and second-hand ship prices [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the railway freight volume and highway truck traffic, suggesting steady growth in these sectors [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market - VLCC freight rates have shown a 110% increase in Q4 compared to Q3, with one-year charter rates rising by 23%. The report highlights that the second-hand ship prices have yet to reflect these changes [4]. - The Suezmax crude oil tanker rates have decreased by 4% to $71,888 per day, while Aframax rates increased by 3% to $62,987 per day [4]. Air Transportation - The report discusses the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing chain and the ongoing trend of aging aircraft globally. It predicts a significant improvement in airline profitability as the industry approaches a turning point [4]. - Recommended airlines include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others, due to their strong demand and supply dynamics [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is entering a new phase of competition, with three potential scenarios outlined: price stabilization leading to profit recovery, continued competitive pressure, and potential mergers and acquisitions [4]. - Companies to watch include Shentong Express, YTO Express, and ZTO Express, with a focus on their performance in the upcoming annual reports [4]. Road and Rail - The report cites data from the Ministry of Transport indicating that from December 1 to December 7, national railway freight volume was 80.19 million tons, a decrease of 2.35% week-on-week [4]. - The report suggests that the highway sector will benefit from two main investment themes throughout 2025: high dividend yields and potential value management catalysts [4].

Group 1 - The duty-free shop concept index declined by 1.60%, ranking among the top declines in the concept sector, with companies like Zhongbai Group, Guangbai Shares, and Youhao Group experiencing significant drops [1] - Among the duty-free shop concept stocks, only four saw price increases, with Lingnan Holdings, Hainan Development, and China Merchants Shekou rising by 1.86%, 0.60%, and 0.45% respectively [1] - The duty-free shop sector experienced a net outflow of 588 million yuan in main funds, with 21 stocks seeing net outflows, and six stocks exceeding 30 million yuan in outflows, led by China Duty Free Group with a net outflow of 174 million yuan [2] Group 2 - The top net outflow stocks in the duty-free shop sector included China Duty Free Group, Caesar Travel, Dongbai Group, and Zhongbai Group, with net outflows of 174 million yuan, 90.89 million yuan, 71.85 million yuan, and 53.13 million yuan respectively [2][3] - Conversely, the stocks with the highest net inflows included China Merchants Shekou, Dalian Commercial Shares, and Youhao Group, with net inflows of 29.57 million yuan, 5.41 million yuan, and 3.71 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The overall trading activity in the duty-free shop sector showed a mix of performance, with some stocks experiencing significant turnover rates, such as Dongbai Group at 27.58% and Hainan Development at 19.43% [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to experience a gradual recovery in demand, with domestic market capacity growth remaining slow and international markets benefiting from visa-free policies and corporate expansion, leading to optimistic growth in demand and price trends [1][5]. Group 1: 2025 Review - Global aviation industry growth is slowing, with IATA predicting a 5.8% year-on-year increase in global RPK for 2025, and the Asia-Pacific region leading at 9% [1]. - The average global passenger load factor is expected to reach a record high of 84%, with an estimated EBIT margin of 6.7%, a 0.3 percentage point increase year-on-year [1]. - China's aviation industry showed profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, with international routes recovering faster than domestic ones [2]. Group 2: 2026 Aviation Outlook - Supply-side growth is expected to remain low in 2026, with a record backlog of 17,000 aircraft orders, but delivery rates have not returned to pre-pandemic levels [3][4]. - The utilization rate of aircraft has reached peak levels, limiting the availability of operational aircraft [4]. - Demand for international travel is anticipated to remain strong, driven by visa-free policies and a recovery in business travel [5]. Group 3: Pricing and Capacity - The passenger load factor is nearing its upper limit, which may reduce the willingness of airlines to engage in price wars, supporting a trend of price increases [6]. - The average passenger load factor for the industry is projected to improve, with expectations of continued upward pressure on ticket prices due to reduced competition [6].

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Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the aviation industry in 2026, driven by a gradual recovery in demand and an expected increase in ticket prices, with domestic market capacity growth remaining slow [6][9] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on major airlines with significant fleet sizes and strong cyclical attributes, such as China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, and Hainan Airlines, as well as smaller regional airlines like Huaxia Airlines and low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines [6][9] 2025 Aviation Review - Global aviation growth is projected to slow down, with IATA forecasting a 5.8% increase in RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) for 2025, while the Asia-Pacific region is expected to lead with a 9% growth [7][21] - China's aviation industry showed profitability in the first three quarters of 2025, with major airlines like Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern expected to achieve full-year profitability [7][19] - The average passenger load factor in China reached 85.12%, an increase of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating strong demand recovery [7][39] 2026 Aviation Outlook - The supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with international travel demand benefiting from visa-free policies and corporate expansion abroad, leading to optimistic growth forecasts [6][9] - The report anticipates that 2026 will be a year where the positive cycle of volume and price in the aviation market becomes widely recognized, with a shift in growth engines from domestic to international markets [6][9] - The report highlights that the average ticket prices are expected to rise due to reduced competition and high load factors, with the industry moving away from aggressive price wars [7][49] Supply Side Analysis - The global backlog of aircraft orders has reached a record high of 17,000 units, but delivery rates have not returned to pre-pandemic levels, leading to a supply gap [7][55] - Major aircraft manufacturers like Boeing and Airbus are struggling to meet delivery targets, which may continue to constrain capacity growth in the coming years [7][55] - The report notes that the utilization rates of existing aircraft have reached peak levels, limiting the potential for further supply increases [7][49] Demand Side Analysis - The report indicates that international travel demand is expected to remain strong, particularly due to favorable visa policies and a growing preference for short-haul destinations among Chinese travelers [7][91] - Domestic business travel is projected to recover gradually, while leisure travel demand remains robust, with a notable increase in the number of young and elderly travelers [7][86] - The report highlights that the recovery in inbound tourism is also expected to continue, supported by visa-free entry policies for foreign visitors [7][100]