出品丨虎嗅汽车组 作者丨李赓 头图丨视觉中国 回顾2025年上半年，中国汽车市场处处是战火。 随着各大车企上半年整体销量数据尘埃落定，明星车型的销量榜单相继出炉，以及新能源汽车渗透 率、出口增速等关键行业指标浮出水面，一组组冰冷的数字，逐步为我们揭示了上半年汽车市场竞争 的真实全貌。 我们究竟应如何透彻理解2025上半年中国车市的真实脉动与深层逻辑？ 下半年，中国车市的战火将向何方蔓延？格局演变会呈现哪些新趋势？ 本期车圈脉动，我们将穿透数据的表象，结合行业脉动，对上半年进行深度解析，并尝试对下半年的 市场走向作出合理预判。 【全局：销量继续涨，但销售压 力其实很高】 总数仍在涨：今年1～6月，全国乘用车市场呈现持续增长态势，厂商批发量达1327.9万辆，同比 增长12.2%。从零售端看，累计销量为1090万辆，同比增长10.8%。值得注意的是，汽车出口表 现尤为突出，1～5月累计出口量达216万辆，同比增速达到15%，显示出中国车企在国际市场上 的强劲竞争力。 新能源出口增速较快：1～5月，新能源汽车出口量达到116万辆，同比增长33%，占整体出口的 43%。这一增长主要得益于插混和混动车型的强劲表现，成为 ...

Core Insights - The sales data from major automotive companies for the first half of the year reflects current market performance and indicates the trajectory for achieving annual targets [1] - There is a significant disparity in the performance of different companies, with some achieving over 40% of their annual sales targets, while others lag behind [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Xiaopeng Motors achieved the highest completion rate at 51.89%, delivering 197,189 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 279.01% [2][4] - Geely's sales reached 1,409,180 units, with a completion rate of 46.97%, and a notable growth in its new energy vehicle segment [2][5] - SAIC Motor Corporation reported a total of 2,052,608 units sold, achieving a completion rate of 45.61% [2][5] - BYD's sales reached 2,145,954 units, but its completion rate was only 39.02%, with a notable decline in domestic sales in May and June [2][9] - NIO delivered 114,150 vehicles, achieving a completion rate of 25.94%, indicating significant pressure on its annual targets [2][10] Group 2: Market Trends - The automotive market is expected to maintain healthy and stable growth, driven by new policies and a rich supply of new products [11] - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that new energy vehicle sales could reach 16 million units, with new cars accounting for over 50% of total sales [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing segmentation of the new energy vehicle market, particularly the rise of six-seat SUVs priced above 200,000 yuan, catering to mid-range consumers [1][3] - Several car manufacturers are accelerating their entry into the six-seat SUV market, with models like Changan Deep Blue S09 and Geely Galaxy M9 leading the charge in the 200,000 to 250,000 yuan segment [3][4] - The article identifies four representative models in the 200,000+ yuan six-seat SUV category, predicting monthly sales of around 5,000 units for these vehicles, which have wheelbases exceeding 3 meters [3][4] Group 2 - The comfort of the third-row seating is a critical factor for consumers choosing six-seat SUVs, making it a key competitive advantage for models in this segment [5][6] - The article discusses the spatial experience of the third-row seats, noting that the Deep Blue S09 offers a legroom of 870mm, which is suitable for adult passengers [6][7] - A wheelbase of 3,100mm is deemed necessary for ensuring a comfortable seating experience across all three rows in large six-seat SUVs [7] Group 3 - The article compares six-seat SUVs with MPVs, noting that MPVs generally provide more spacious third-row seating due to their design, making them a viable option for multi-child families [11][14] - Despite the advantages of MPVs, the high ground clearance of six-seat SUVs appeals to consumers interested in off-road capabilities and self-driving experiences [14] - Sales data indicates that while MPV sales have been fluctuating without significant growth, the sales of large six-seat SUVs are steadily increasing, reflecting a shift in consumer interest [14] Group 4 - The long-term market outlook for large six-seat SUVs appears less optimistic due to declining birth rates and the diminishing number of multi-child families, which are the primary target market for these vehicles [18][20] - The article notes that the peak period for purchasing large six-seat SUVs aligns with the age when the second child starts school, suggesting a lag in demand due to recent declines in birth rates [20]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.9% last week, closing at 24,139 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.6% to 5,248 points[1] - Weekly market turnover decreased by 1.7% to HKD 242.5 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 20.7 billion through the Stock Connect[1] - The market is experiencing significant rotation among sectors, with strong inflows into stablecoin concept stocks, brokerages, and biopharmaceuticals, indicating a positive investment cycle[1] Macroeconomic Insights - The latest FOMC minutes revealed that only a few Fed officials support a rate cut in July, with most concerned about inflation risks from new tariffs[2] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. unexpectedly fell to 227,000, the lowest in seven weeks, indicating a resilient labor market[2] Sector Performance - The consumer sector saw declines, with stocks like Maogeping and Lao Pu Gold dropping between 5% and 9% last week[3] - The vocational education sector performed well, with New Higher Education and China Spring rising by 24.2% and 14.6%, respectively[3] Healthcare Sector - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index slightly declined by 0.05% after two weeks of gains, despite WuXi AppTec's stock surging by 10.5% following a positive earnings announcement[4] - WuXi AppTec expects a revenue of approximately RMB 20.8 billion for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 20.6%[4] Energy and Utilities - The renewable energy and utilities sectors experienced slight fluctuations, with notable increases in stocks like Xinyi Solar and GCL-Poly Energy, rising by 2.4% and 9.8%, respectively[5] - Environmental stocks also saw gains, with Everbright Environment and Beijing Enterprises Water rising by 3.8% and 5.7%[5] Company-Specific Updates - Tianlun Gas is expected to return to profit growth starting FY25, with a projected CAGR of 12.0% for net profit from FY24 to FY27[6] - The company aims to increase its dividend payout ratio from 30.0% in FY23 to 35.0% by FY25, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns[11]

Core Insights - The domestic passenger car market in China experienced an unexpected growth of 10.8% in the first half of the year, with June retail sales reaching 2.084 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% and a month-on-month increase of 7.6% [1] - The market is seeing a shift with price wars becoming milder, while hidden incentives such as enhanced features and adjustments to owner rights are becoming more common [1] Sales Performance - In June, the wholesale share of domestic brands reached 67.1%, up 2.2% year-on-year, while the retail share was 64.2%, up 5.6% year-on-year [2][3] - Retail sales of domestic brands in June were 1.34 million units, a year-on-year increase of 30% and a month-on-month increase of 7% [3] - The cumulative retail market share of domestic brands in the first half of the year was 64%, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [3] Brand Performance - BYD's June sales reached 377,628 units, with a total of 2,113,271 units sold in the first half of the year, marking an 11% year-on-year increase [4] - Chery Group's June sales were 233,607 units, a 16.6% year-on-year increase, with 71,582 units being new energy vehicles, up 59.6% [4] - Geely's June sales were approximately 236,000 units, a 42% year-on-year increase, with a total of 1,409,000 units sold in the first half of the year, up 47% [4] Market Dynamics - The sales ranking for the first half of 2025 shows BYD leading with 1,610,042 units sold, followed by Geely with 1,225,673 units, and FAW-Volkswagen with 743,543 units, which saw a decline of 3.6% [7] - The luxury car segment saw retail sales of 230,000 units in June, a year-on-year decrease of 7% but an 18% increase month-on-month [3] Future Outlook - The market is expected to experience a gradual slowdown in growth due to high inventory levels and increased pressure on dealers' profitability as bank loan incentives diminish [8] - The overall production pace is anticipated to stabilize as automakers work to maintain relative price stability in the market [8]

Group 1 - BYD reported a value of 1360.61 with a decrease of 21.7% [2] - Ferrari's value is 887.78, showing a decrease of 13.15% [2] - Mercedes-Benz has a value of 597.78, with no percentage change reported [2] - BMW's value increased by 1.19% to 566.63 [2] Group 2 - Volkswagen's value is 537.15, reflecting a decrease of 0.48% [3] - General Motors reported a value of 513.31, with an increase of 2.3% [3] - Ford's value decreased by 5.16% to 468.44 [3] - Maruti Suzuki's value is 461.17, showing a decrease of 2.36% [3] - Porsche's value decreased by 6.5% to 444.88 [3] - Mahindra Automotive's value is 441.38, with a decrease of 13.28% [3] - Honda's value is 421.94, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.55% [3] - Hyundai's value increased by 21.73% to 373.36 [3] - Stellantis reported a value of 305.14, with a decrease of 9.08% [3] - Seres' value is 296.65, showing a decrease of 4.03% [3] - Tata Motors reported a value of 294.36, with a decrease of 7.21% [3] - Kia's value increased by 3.72% to 291.71 [3] - SAIC Motor's value is 284.62, reflecting an increase of 9.68% [3] - Li Auto's value is 280.63, with an increase of 4.66% [3] - Geely's value is 227.12, reflecting an increase of 1.29% [3] - Great Wall Motors reported a value of 226.47, with a slight increase of 0.11% [3] - Suzuki Japan's value is 220.92, showing an increase of 2.36% [3] - Xpeng's value is 165.68, reflecting a decrease of 0.28% [3] Group 3 - Changan Automobile's value is 156.36, with a slight increase of 0.12% [4] - Rivian's value is 156.09, showing a decrease of 3.48% [4] - Renault's value is 138.89, reflecting a decrease of 2.23% [4] - Subaru's value is 129.85, with an increase of 1.62% [4] - JAC's value is 119.19, with an increase of 0.49% [4] - Hozon Auto's value is 105.63, showing a decrease of 1.14% [4] - Isuzu's value is 93.51, with an increase of 0.58% [4] - GAC Group's value is 88.01, reflecting a decrease of 0.83% [4] - Leapmotor's value is 85.88, with no percentage change reported [4] - Weimi Auto's value is 83.69, showing an increase of 4.51% [4] - Ford Otosan's value is 83.18, reflecting a decrease of 0.92% [4] - VinFast Auto's value is 83.03, with an increase of 0.47% [4] - Nissan's value is 75.25, reflecting an increase of 2.18% [4] - Lucid Motors' value is 69.85, showing a decrease of 1.22% [4] - Zeekr's value is 69.83, with an increase of 0.84% [4]

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive market is experiencing intense competition in the first half of 2025, with significant sales growth but high sales pressure [1][2][4] - The market dynamics are shifting, with traditional automakers, new energy vehicle (NEV) manufacturers, and joint ventures all vying for market share [3][9] Overall Market Performance - The wholesale volume of passenger cars reached 13.279 million units from January to June, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, while retail sales totaled 10.9 million units, up 10.8% [4] - Exports of automobiles were particularly strong, with 2.16 million units exported from January to May, reflecting a 15% year-on-year growth [4] - NEV exports surged to 1.16 million units, a 33% increase year-on-year, accounting for 43% of total exports [4] Sales and Promotions - Traditional fuel vehicle promotions remained stable at 23.3%, while NEV promotions decreased slightly to 10.2%, still up 1.6 percentage points from the previous year [4] - The reliance on government subsidies is significant, with 4.12 million applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies by the end of June, benefiting about 70% of private car buyers [4] Dealer Inventory and Pressure - Dealers faced significant inventory pressure, with a dealer inventory warning index reaching 56.6%, indicating high levels of unsold stock [4] - Only 27.5% of 4S dealerships met their sales targets in the first half of the year, suggesting ongoing challenges in the market [4] Company-Specific Performance - BYD led the sales with 2.146 million units sold, a 33% increase, but only achieved 39% of its annual target of 5.5 million units [5] - Geely saw a remarkable 47% increase in sales, reaching 1.409 million units, achieving 52% of its target [5] - Changan and Chery also reported modest growth, while Great Wall Motors lagged with only a 1.8% increase in sales [5][6] New Energy Vehicle Landscape - The competition among NEV manufacturers is intensifying, with BYD maintaining a leading position while other companies like Geely are aggressively entering the market [6][9] - New energy vehicle sales are becoming increasingly competitive, with companies needing to focus on comprehensive cost-performance advantages to succeed [9][12] Joint Venture Dynamics - Joint ventures are beginning to show signs of recovery, with major players like FAW Toyota and SAIC Volkswagen reporting sales growth [9][10] - The penetration rate of NEVs among joint ventures remains low at 5.3%, but some models are showing potential for significant sales [10] Market Outlook - The competitive landscape is expected to become even more intense in the second half of 2025, with all players needing to adapt to changing market conditions [10][15] - The reliance on subsidy policies will be crucial for stimulating demand, as the market has largely exhausted previous rounds of incentives [15]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong automotive stocks experienced a significant upward trend, with notable gains in several key companies [1] Company Performance - NIO Inc. (09866.HK) saw an increase of over 10% [1] - Li Auto Inc. (02015.HK) rose nearly 4% [1] - Beijing Automotive Group (01958.HK) increased by approximately 2.5% [1] - Geely Automobile Holdings (00175.HK), GAC Group (02238.HK), and Brilliance China Automotive Holdings (01114.HK) all gained over 1% [1]

港股汽车股震荡走高，蔚来汽车涨超10%，理想汽车涨近4%，北京汽车涨近2.5%，吉利汽车、广汽集 团、华晨中国均涨超1%。 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential for Yaxin Integration (亚翔集成) in the semiconductor industry, particularly in Singapore, as it becomes a preferred destination for semiconductor capacity migration due to geopolitical uncertainties [8][9] - The company has secured major semiconductor engineering orders in Singapore, indicating a strong demand for its services and a robust pipeline of future projects [9] - The valuation of Yaxin Integration is significantly lower than its peers, suggesting potential for revaluation as its overseas business continues to grow [10] Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift in investment towards Southeast Asia, particularly Singapore, as companies seek to mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions [8] - The high-tech manufacturing sector is showing stable performance, with indicators suggesting a steady economic environment and positive trends in consumer spending [11][14] - The report notes that the high-tech manufacturing diffusion index remains stable, reflecting consistent growth in sectors such as semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, while some areas like new energy are facing challenges [11][12]