Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the outbound group travel industry, with ongoing business recovery and an expanding layout [3][14]. - The domestic and outbound/inbound tourism industries are experiencing steady growth, with significant recovery following unconventional cycles [10][34]. - The company benefits from a robust supply chain, strong cash reserves, and a comprehensive online and offline channel strategy [3][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The outbound tourism penetration rate in China has been increasing, reaching 11.0% in 2019, but still lags behind developed countries like the US and South Korea [2]. - The outbound tourism market is characterized by a predominance of young, highly educated travelers who prefer personalized and customized experiences [2][10]. - The inbound tourism sector is supported by favorable policies and increased payment facilitation measures, enhancing the willingness of foreign tourists to visit China [1][10]. Company Positioning - The company operates in the midstream of the outbound tourism industry, primarily benefiting from industry growth and its leading market position [2][10]. - The company has maintained its core team and supply chain, enabling a swift recovery post-pandemic [3][10]. - The company has a strong brand value and resource integration capability, with plans to expand its retail business through a franchise model [3][10]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of CNY 75.00 billion, CNY 87.35 billion, and CNY 103.39 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][8]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of CNY 1.16 billion, CNY 1.55 billion, and CNY 1.94 billion for the same years, reflecting a strong recovery trajectory [3][8]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 67.2X, 50.4X, and 40.2X respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [3][8].

Group 1 - Hainan Free Trade Port will officially "close" on December 18, significantly boosting the Hainan sector, with nearly 20 stocks including Hainan Airport and China Tungsten High-tech hitting the daily limit [1] - Duty-free concept stocks surged, with China Duty Free Group's A-shares reaching a new high since April, and H-shares rising over 19%, marking the highest price since October 2024 [1] - The tourism ETF, heavily invested in China Duty Free Group, Hainan Airport, and Tibet Tourism, increased by over 4.3% [1] Group 2 - Following the closure, the proportion of zero-tariff goods in Hainan Free Trade Port will rise from 21% to 74%, with 85 countries' personnel able to enter Hainan visa-free [2] - The significance of the closure lies in trade openness, which will benefit the construction of Hainan as an international tourism consumption center [2] - Duty-free operators with strong property layouts, supply chain resources, and operational capabilities are expected to maintain a leading position in the market [2] Group 3 - In Q1 2025, Hainan's offshore duty-free sales are projected to be 11.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11%, but the decline narrowed to -5% in March, indicating resilience in high-net-worth consumer spending [3] - China Duty Free Group, holding over 80% market share, will continue to benefit from domestic duty-free policies and the recovery of outbound tourism [3] Group 4 - The summer travel season has seen a significant increase in outbound tourism, with average prices for outbound travel products dropping by about 5% compared to last year, while bookings for overseas train tickets and hotel packages surged by 136% and 185% respectively [4] - Inbound tourism also showed growth, with over 640,000 people entering and exiting Beijing from July 1 to 10, including 171,000 foreign tourists, a year-on-year increase of 22.1% [5] Group 5 - The summer economy is thriving, with long-distance travel accounting for over 60% of the market, driven by family and student travel [6] - Domestic flight bookings exceeded 25.61 million during the summer travel period, with international flight bookings surpassing 8.28 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 7% [6] - The railway sector anticipates sending 953 million passengers during the summer travel season, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [6] Group 6 - Xinjiang is experiencing a tourism boom during the summer, with the newly opened "Internet celebrity road" attracting over 100,000 tourists since its opening [7] - The improvement of transportation infrastructure in Xinjiang, with a total road mileage of 230,000 kilometers and over 94% of counties connected by highways, is facilitating this tourism growth [7]

Group 1 - The A-share tourism and hotel sector continues to rise, with significant gains observed in stocks such as Tibet Tourism and Caesar Travel, both reaching the daily limit up [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Shoulu Hotel, Qujiang Cultural Tourism, Zhongxin Tourism, and Lingnan Holdings, also experienced upward movement in their stock prices [1]

Core Insights - The inbound tourism market in China is recovering positively, with measures such as extending visa-free transit stay to 240 hours starting from the end of 2024, enhancing the attractiveness of the Chinese tourism market [3][4] Company Developments - Zhongxin Tourism Group has developed the first Muslim inbound tourism product tailored for "Belt and Road" countries, featuring eight routes that highlight major Chinese cultural landmarks [4] - The company has also launched a "U-young" series targeting individuals under 45, which has gained popularity due to its flexible schedule and focus on local cultural experiences [4] - In 2024, Zhongxin Tourism will upgrade its digital tourism industry chain and introduce offline tourism products, including a VR immersive exhibition themed on Antarctic research, which has already attracted over 20,000 visitors [5][6] Market Trends - The inbound tourism market is seeing a rise in demand for differentiated products, with Zhongxin Tourism focusing on cultural and business travel services [4] - The success of the Antarctic-themed exhibition has provided positive feedback and potential for further development in the digital tourism sector [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing trend of "parent-child tourism" in China during the summer, driven by families seeking educational and enjoyable experiences for their children [1][6] - Data from various travel platforms indicates that parent-child travelers constitute a significant portion of the domestic aviation market, with over 34% of domestic flights occupied by this demographic [1][2] - The 2025 summer tourism market is characterized by three main features: being parent-child dominated, emphasizing deep experiences, and undergoing structural upgrades [1][6] Group 2 - Cities like Kunming, Harbin, Qingdao, and Guiyang are emerging as popular destinations for families, offering a combination of educational and comfortable travel experiences [4][6] - Major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Xi'an remain top choices for parent-child families due to their rich cultural resources and extensive tourism infrastructure [5][6] - The trend in 2025 reflects a dual focus on "educational upgrades" and "emotional relaxation," with parents increasingly prioritizing destinations that offer cultural enrichment while also allowing for a relaxed travel pace [6]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights that the market is expected to reach a new level, with a focus on the performance of various sectors and companies [2] - The A-share market has shown resilience, with indices rebounding after a pullback, indicating a return of positive sentiment [3] - The report notes that global equity markets have mostly risen, with Asian markets leading the gains [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a cyclical bottom, with the dairy industry moving towards supply-demand balance and beef prices recovering [4] - In the retail sector, companies are actively positioning themselves for growth, with a focus on new consumption trends and improving performance in the restaurant and tourism industries [6] - The C-REITs market is witnessing strong interest, particularly in data center REITs, with a positive outlook for the low-interest environment and macroeconomic recovery [8] Group 3: Company Performance - Zhongwei Company (688012.SH) is projected to achieve a revenue of 4.96 billion yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 43.9%, driven by significant increases in etching equipment sales [10] - The company has increased its R&D investment to approximately 1.49 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a growth of about 53.7%, which is significantly higher than the average R&D investment level of companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [11] - Zhongwei Company aims to cover over 60% of semiconductor front-end equipment categories through both acquisitions and internal R&D, positioning itself as a leading supplier in the etching, film deposition, and measurement sectors [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry, expecting it to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [2][48]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 3.18% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 9th among 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.26 percentage points [2][13]. - The competitive "involution" in the food delivery market has negatively impacted retail sales in June, but the summer travel market is expected to remain robust, indicating potential for growth in related industries [2][5]. - The report highlights the significant impact of visa-free policies on inbound tourism, with a notable increase in inbound travel expected during the summer season [5][41]. Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The social services sector's performance was strong, with sub-sectors like professional services (+7.53%) and tourism retail (+2.85%) leading the gains, while hotel and catering services saw a slight decline of -0.17% [17][20]. - The report notes that from July 1 to August 31, the national railway is expected to send 953 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [5][30]. - The inbound tourism market has shown a strong recovery, with 33.3 million inbound travelers in the first half of 2025, a 15.8% increase year-on-year [5][30]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth potential in the travel and related industries, including Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [5][41]. - It also recommends monitoring hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel [5][41]. - Companies involved in the recovery of the duty-free market, such as China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5][41].

Core Insights - The article highlights the growing cultural and tourism consumption in Beijing's Chaoyang District, driven by private enterprises in entertainment, tourism, and pet services, with a projected tourism revenue of 154.54 billion yuan in 2024, leading in Beijing [1][5]. Group 1: Entertainment Sector - The establishment of Fulong Livehouse, a new comprehensive performance venue, has become a popular spot for young music fans, hosting over 200 performances in 2025 across various music genres [3][4]. - The innovative design of Fulong Livehouse enhances audience experience, with excellent sound and lighting equipment, contributing to its rapid popularity [4]. - Large concerts in Chaoyang District significantly boost the local economy, with a projected ticket revenue of 1.6 billion yuan in 2024, generating over 10.9 billion yuan in overall consumption [5]. Group 2: Cultural and Tourism Integration - The rise of "ticket economy" allows concert-goers to enjoy discounts on dining and accommodation, enhancing the overall experience [6][7]. - Chaoyang District plans to host approximately 86,000 commercial performances in 2024, including 108 large concerts at major venues [7]. Group 3: Pet Economy - The emergence of the pet economy is exemplified by Mars Pet Supermarket, which offers over 3,000 products and has expanded to over 8 stores, capitalizing on a market with significant growth potential [13][14]. - The pet retail market in China is projected to grow, with current penetration rates significantly lower than in the U.S., indicating a substantial opportunity for expansion [14]. Group 4: Inbound Tourism - The introduction of a 240-hour visa-free transit policy has spurred demand for inbound tourism, with a projected 800% increase in inbound visitors in 2024 compared to 2023 [8][10]. - The company is developing high-quality inbound tourism products, including business travel options, and aims to expand its presence to 5,000 branches nationwide within five years [10][11]. Group 5: Policy Support and Future Goals - Chaoyang District has launched eight new policies to support the cultural and tourism industry, aiming for tourism revenue to exceed 160 billion yuan and attract 100 million visitors by 2025 [16].

行 业 及 产 业 社会服务 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 杨光 A0230524100004 yangguang@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨光 (8621)23297818× yangguang@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 07 月 20 日 长期视角下，RWA 如何赋能文旅 革新？ 相关研究 《苏超体育赛事带来靓眼经济支出，南京 商旅资产注入进度跟踪——社会服务行业 周报（6.30-7.4）》 2025/07/06 看好 ——社会服务系列报告九：文化旅游新趋势 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 ⚫ 中国香港在 RWA 领域率先探索合规化路径，政策与市场双轮驱动发展。政策层面，香 港金融管理局宣布于 2024 年 8 月启动 Ensemble 项目沙盒，截至 2025 年 7 月批准 8 个 标杆案例，融资超 5 亿港元；2025 年 5 月推出《稳定币条例草案》（ ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant differentiation in performance across various sectors within the social services industry, particularly in tourism and hospitality, driven by changing consumer behaviors and economic conditions [3][4]. - The hotel industry is transitioning from a rapid growth phase to a more competitive environment, with a notable increase in the number of hotels and rooms available [3][4]. - The demand for duty-free shopping is anticipated to grow due to global economic recovery and consumption upgrades, despite some companies facing revenue declines [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Tourism Attractions - Jiuhua Tourism is projected to achieve a 22% increase in revenue and a 28% increase in net profit for H1 2025. Huangshan Tourism is expected to generate revenue of 911 million yuan, a 9% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 149 million yuan, up 13% [3][4]. - Changbai Mountain is forecasted to see a 7.48% decrease in revenue, with a net loss of 2 million yuan, marking a 110% decline [3][4]. - Tianmu Lake is expected to report a 5% revenue increase to 277 million yuan and a 9% rise in net profit to 58 million yuan [3][4]. Hotel Industry - Huazhu is expected to generate 11.66 billion yuan in revenue for H1 2025, a 2% increase, with a net profit of 2.04 billion yuan, up 18% [3][4]. - Shoulv Hotel is projected to see a 4% decline in revenue to 3.59 billion yuan, while net profit is expected to rise by 9% to 391 million yuan [3][4]. - Atour Hotel anticipates a 30% revenue increase to 4.24 billion yuan and a 16% rise in net profit to 653 million yuan [3][4]. Exhibition & Human Resource Services - The report notes increasing competition in the domestic market, with companies like Miao Exhibition expected to achieve a 9% revenue increase to 284 million yuan, despite a significant drop in net profit [3][4]. - Beijing Human Resources is projected to see a 6% revenue increase to 23.29 billion yuan, with a substantial 81% rise in net profit to 785 million yuan [3][4]. Duty-Free Sector - China Duty-Free is expected to report a 9% decline in revenue to 28.58 billion yuan and a 14% decrease in net profit to 2.84 billion yuan [3][4]. - Wangfujing is projected to see an 18% decline in revenue to 4.95 billion yuan, with a 73% drop in net profit to 80 million yuan [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in various sectors: 1. Exhibition and events: Lansheng Co., Lisheng Sports, Miao Exhibition 2. Human resources: Beijing Human Resources, Keri International 3. Tourism: Changbai Mountain, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism, Songcheng Performing Arts, Tianmu Lake 4. Hotels: Shoulv Hotel, Huazhu, Atour 5. Duty-free: China Duty-Free, Wangfujing [3][4].