Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On January 16, the liquidity gradually returned to a loose state, with major repurchase rates declining; the bond market generally warmed up; the main indices of the convertible bond market rose collectively, and most convertible bond issues saw price increases; yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally went up, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies also mostly increased [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The central bank and the National Financial Regulatory Administration adjusted the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate mortgages to no less than 30% on January 17 [4]. - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration extended the tax incentives for public rental housing until December 31, 2027, on January 16 [4]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized maintaining market stability, strengthening monitoring, and guiding long - term investment at its 2026 system work meeting on January 15 [5]. - The National Financial Regulatory Administration called for promoting the regular operation of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism and supporting the resolution of financing platform debt risks at its 2026 regulatory work meeting on January 15 [5]. - **International News** - On January 16, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman called on the Fed to be ready to cut interest rates if the labor market does not improve sustainably [7]. - **Commodities** - On January 16, international crude oil futures prices turned up while international natural gas prices turned down. WTI February crude oil futures rose $0.25, or 0.42%, to $59.44 per barrel; Brent March crude oil futures rose 0.58% to $64.13 per barrel; COMEX gold futures fell 0.57% to $4597 per ounce, with a cumulative weekly increase of 2.12%; NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.11% to $3.109 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open - Market Operations** - On January 16, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 86.7 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 52.7 billion yuan after 34 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [10]. - **Funding Rates** - On January 16, the liquidity gradually loosened, and major repurchase rates declined. DR001 dropped 4.73bp to 1.320%, and DR007 dropped 5.94bp to 1.443% [11]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds** - **Yield Trends of Cash Bonds** - On January 16, due to the loosening liquidity and the decline of the stock market, the bond market generally warmed up. As of 20:00 Beijing time, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250016 dropped 1.20bp to 1.8430%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250215 dropped 0.40bp to 1.9640% [14]. - **Bond Tendering Results** - The 3 - year 25 Jinchu 13 (Increment 7) was issued with a scale of 6 billion yuan, a winning yield of 1.6176%, a full - field multiple of 4.66, and a marginal multiple of 5.32 [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Abnormal Secondary - Market Transactions** - On January 16, the trading prices of 3 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "21 Vanke 06" rose over 10%, "23 Vanke 01" rose over 21%, and "23 Vanke MTN003" rose over 39% [16]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Shenye Group cancelled the issuance of "26 Shenye MTN001" due to market reasons. Moody's revoked Hailong Holdings' "Ca" corporate family rating at the company's request. Fitch downgraded Wanda Commercial and Wanda Hong Kong's long - term foreign - currency issuer ratings to "RD" and then upgraded them to "CC". Guang'an Aizhong expected its net profit in 2025 to be negative. Gome Electric was listed as a dishonest executor with a total execution target of 116 million yuan. The Shanghai Stock Exchange publicly condemned Jiangsu Baoguangli Video Technology Group for failing to disclose its interim report on time [17]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On January 16, the three major A - share indices fell. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index dropped 0.26%, 0.18%, and 0.20% respectively, with a total trading volume of 3.06 trillion yuan. The main convertible bond market indices rose collectively. The CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index, and Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rose 0.47%, 0.59%, and 0.31% respectively. The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 103.48 billion yuan, an increase of 8.109 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among 388 convertible bond issues, 236 rose, 139 fell, and 13 remained flat [18]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - On January 17, Changgao Electric and Haitian Co., Ltd. received CSRC approval for convertible bond issuance. On January 16, Meinuo Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision of the conversion price; Changqi Convertible Bond, Oujing Convertible Bond, Jidong Convertible Bond, Aojia Convertible Bond, and Mars Convertible Bond were about to trigger the downward - revision clause of the conversion price. Guanglian Convertible Bond, Jiamei Convertible Bond, and Fumiao Convertible Bond announced early redemption; Huazheng Convertible Bond and Daotong Convertible Bond were expected to trigger the early - redemption clause [26]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **U.S. Bond Market** - On January 16, yields of U.S. Treasury bonds across various maturities generally went up. The 2 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose 3bp to 3.59%, and the 10 - year yield rose 7bp to 4.24%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury bond yield spread widened by 4bp to 65bp, and the 5/30 - year yield spread narrowed by 1bp to 101bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 4bp to 2.33% [22][23][24]. - **European Bond Market** - On January 16, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies generally increased. The 10 - year German government bond yield rose 3bp to 2.84%, and those of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 3bp, 1bp, 1bp, and 1bp respectively [25]. - **Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds (as of the close on January 16)** - The prices of some Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds changed. For example, the price of New World Development's bond rose 13.6%, while that of Bilibili's bond fell 1.3% [27].

天眼查天眼风险信息显示，近日，万科A（000002）、长沙市万科企业有限公司新增一则被执行人信 息，执行标的10.8亿余元，执行法院为湖南省长沙市中级人民法院。万科企业股份有限公司成立于1984 年5月，法定代表人为郁亮，注册资本约110亿人民币，经营范围包括兴办实业、进出口业务、房地产开 发等。股东信息显示，该公司由深圳市地铁集团有限公司、香港中央结算（代理人）有限公司、中国证 券金融股份有限公司等共同持股。 ...

Group 1 - Vanke bonds continue to rise, with "22 Vanke 02" increasing nearly 13% [1] - "22 Vanke 06" has risen over 11% [1] - "22 Vanke 04" has increased more than 6% [1] Group 2 - "23 Vanke 01" and "21 Vanke 06" have both risen over 2% [1] - "21 Vanke 04" has increased more than 1% [1]

Group 1 - Vanke bonds continued to rise on January 19, with "22 Vanke 02" increasing by 13% [1] - "22 Vanke 06" rose by over 11%, while "22 Vanke 04" increased by over 6% [1] - "23 Vanke 01" and "21 Vanke 06" both saw increases of over 2%, and "21 Vanke 04" rose by over 1% [1]

Group 1 - Vanke's domestic bonds continued to rise, with "22 Vanke 02" increasing by 14% [1] - "22 Vanke 06" rose over 11%, while "22 Vanke 04" increased by more than 6% [1] - "23 Vanke 01" saw an increase of nearly 3%, and "21 Vanke 06" rose by over 2% [1] - "21 Vanke 04" experienced an increase of more than 1% [1]

Policy News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the need to create high-quality living spaces and encourages the renovation of old housing through self-renewal and original demolition [1] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau aims to establish a normalized urban real estate financing coordination mechanism to support a new model of real estate development [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the extension of personal income tax policies supporting residents' housing purchases until December 31, 2027 [3] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to 30% to support the real estate market [4] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration extended tax incentives for public rental housing until December 31, 2027 [5] - Hunan Province is promoting the use of special bonds to acquire existing commercial housing for affordable housing and other purposes [6] - Beijing plans to release its annual land supply plan by the end of January, aiming to supply quality land in the first quarter [7] Market News - In 2025, the top 30 real estate companies in Beijing achieved a total sales amount of 239.564 billion yuan, with China State Construction winning the top three categories [8] - A combination land plot in Tongzhou, Beijing, has been adjusted to increase residential land supply [9] - Beike's subsidiary, Beihome, is collaborating on a residential project in Changping, Beijing, utilizing a C2M model [10] - Chengdu successfully auctioned five land plots at a base price, totaling approximately 9.1 billion yuan [11] Company News - Vanke proposed a debt extension plan for two bonds totaling 57 billion yuan [12] - China State Construction reported a new contract amount of 45.458 billion yuan for 2025, with real estate sales reaching 39.48 billion yuan [12] - Yuexiu Property's total contract sales for 2025 reached approximately 106.21 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3% year-on-year [14] - New City Holdings' major shareholder has pledged 13.83% of the company's shares [14] - R&F Properties reported that approximately 77% of planned creditors have agreed to a restructuring support agreement [15] - Sunac's subsidiary has had over 1 billion yuan in assets frozen due to legal actions [16] - Jin Ke Service's privatization offer has been accepted by over 95% of unrelated shares, with plans to delist by February 20, 2026 [16]

// 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，1月16日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了867亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量867亿元，中标量867亿 元。Wind数据显示，当日340亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放527亿元。当周实现净投放8128亿元。 Wind数据显示，1月19日至23日当周，央行公开市场将有9515亿元逆回购到期。此外，23日还将有1500亿元国库现金定存到期。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 银行间市场资金面逐渐恢复宽松，DR001加权平均利率降超4bp至1.32%附近。匿名点击（X-repo）系统上，隔夜报价也滑至1.30%， 供给在千亿元左右；非银机构质押信用债借入隔夜，最新报价集中在1.45%附近。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为3.64%。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.63%附近，较上日小幅下行。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行 （*数据来源：Wind-成交统 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a continuous improvement in the real estate sector, driven by favorable policies and a strengthening of the second-hand housing market [1] - The overall industry rating remains at "Buy," consistent with previous assessments [2] Group 1: Policy Developments - Central government policies are increasingly supportive, with the Ministry of Finance announcing an extension of the tax exemption policy for second-hand housing transactions until the end of 2027 [5][14] - The People's Bank of China has introduced measures including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates and a decrease in the minimum down payment for commercial properties from 50% to 30% [5][15] - The publication of multiple articles in "Qiushi" magazine indicates a heightened focus on real estate and urban development, suggesting a strong policy commitment [5][17] Group 2: Market Performance - The second-hand housing market has shown significant improvement, with a 40.3% year-on-year increase in transactions for the first 15 days of January, despite a 10% decline compared to the previous week [5][23] - New housing transactions remain low, with a 29.7% year-on-year decrease in sales volume, although there was a 9.9% week-on-week increase [5][23][26] - The average transaction price for second-hand homes in 33 cities increased by 0.6% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization in prices [5][25] Group 3: Land Market Dynamics - The total land transfer revenue remains low, with a 25.2% week-on-week decline and a 54.3% year-on-year decrease, reflecting weak market conditions [5][24] - There are localized instances of structural premiums in third and fourth-tier cities, suggesting potential opportunities despite overall market weakness [5][24] Group 4: Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - Key companies in the real estate sector, such as Vanke A and China Overseas Development, maintain a "Buy" rating with reasonable valuations projected for 2025 and 2026 [6] - The report includes detailed financial metrics for various companies, indicating expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, which suggest potential for growth in the sector [6][30]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" and maintained [13]. Core Insights - The relationship between stock prices and housing prices is characterized by three dimensions, with a long-term alignment but uncertain short-term dynamics. Stock prices may lead housing prices or show significant divergence. In the long term, stock prices reflect EPS growth while housing prices reflect income or rental growth, both being results of economic fundamentals. In the short term, factors such as development stage, policy direction, and risk appetite create uncertainty in the relationship between stock and housing prices. The key to whether stock prices can lead housing prices in the short term lies in the ability to quickly shift drivers from risk appetite to economic fundamentals [3][10]. Market Performance - The Yangtze River Real Estate Index decreased by 3.24% this week, with an excess return of -2.67% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 29th out of 32 industries. Year-to-date, the index has increased by 2.85%, with an excess return of 0.65% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 18th out of 32 [7][17]. Policy Updates - Policies supporting residential housing tax refunds for home purchases and lowering the minimum down payment for commercial properties to 30% are being implemented. The central government has announced tax refund incentives for taxpayers who sell their homes and purchase new ones within one year. Local governments are also promoting the use of special bonds to acquire existing properties for affordable housing and conducting promotional activities around major holidays [8][19]. Sales Data - There has been a marginal improvement in new and second-hand housing transactions in sample cities. The new housing transaction area in 37 cities decreased by 35.8% year-on-year, while the second-hand housing transaction area decreased by 16.2% year-on-year. Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area for new housing is down 39.3%, and for second-hand housing, it is down 15.6% [9][20].

Group 1 - The spring market rally has entered its second half, characterized by reduced trading volume and rising prices, as regulatory signals promote a return to rationality in the market [4][6][10] - The average maximum increase of the Shanghai Composite Index during the past 16 spring rallies was 15.8%, while the current rally has seen a maximum increase of 9.8%, indicating potential for further price increases [10][12] - Economic data is showing positive trends, with expectations for a continued rally supported by improving PPI figures and favorable policies from the government [10][20] Group 2 - The focus of the market is shifting from risk appetite to earnings growth, with a notable increase in the proportion of companies reporting positive earnings forecasts, reaching 37.8% as of January 17 [13][19] - The reduction in competitive pressure (internal competition) is leading to a significant increase in the proportion of companies with improved earnings, particularly in industries such as steel, construction materials, and media [20][22] - The overall improvement in earnings among non-financial companies in the A-share market is evident, with a 5.8% increase in the proportion of companies reporting positive net profit growth [20][22] Group 3 - Investment recommendations focus on sectors with strong earnings growth expectations, including non-bank financials, cyclical industries, and technology innovation [23][24] - Non-bank financials have shown the highest proportion of earnings revisions, with a 400% increase in companies adjusting their profit forecasts positively [23][24] - Cyclical sectors such as materials and energy are expected to benefit from fiscal stimulus and demand-side support, with significant upward revisions in profit forecasts [23][24]