《关注业绩支撑的白马反弹，科技与通胀 共振——2026/1/19-2026/1/25 汽车周 报》 2026/01/27 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 2026 年 02 月 02 日 重点公司 Q4 业绩强兑现，特斯拉 再次强调 AI 转型 看好 ——2026/1/26-2026/2/1 汽车周报 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 汽车 ⚫ 观点：①特斯拉业绩会强调 AI 应用方向转型（机器人、智能驾驶、Robotaxi 等）， optimus V3 市场预期持续强化，关注机器人产业链估值弹性，恒勃、银轮、隆盛、拓 普、三花等。②部分重点公司业绩预告符合预期，继续建议关注有业绩支撑的白马机 会，尤其是在权重指数中的企业，包括宇通客 ...

这并非一次偶然的位次更迭，而是多重行业变量交织下，车企战略选择、技术布局与资源整合能力的集中校验。透过单月销量的数字博弈，我们能清晰看 到中国汽车产业正在经历从规模扩张向质量竞争、从单一市场向全球布局、从技术跟随向生态引领的深刻重构。 据智通财经2月2日报道，2026年1月车市销量数据出炉，吉利汽车以27.02万辆的成绩实现同环比双增长，成功反超比亚迪登顶销冠，打破了此前新能源赛 道的固有竞争格局。 吉利的登顶，本质是"多品牌协同+技术深耕+全球化布局"三维战略的阶段性胜利。 在传统品牌新能源转型普遍面临阵痛的背景下，极氪品牌以同比翻倍的增速成为绝对增长引擎，其成功并非单纯依赖产品力，更源于吉利在纯电赛道的长 期投入：从SEA浩瀚架构的技术沉淀，到用户生态的持续运营，极氪用差异化定位切中了中高端纯电市场的需求痛点。 与此同时，吉利新能源板块形成了"极氪（中高端纯电）+银河（主流新能源）+领克（混动转型）"的梯度布局，既避免了内部同质化竞争，又实现了对 不同细分市场的全覆盖，吉利汽车1月新能源销量（含吉利银河、领克、极氪三大品牌）达12.4万辆，同比增长2.63%，印证了这一产品矩阵的有效性。 海外市场方面，吉 ...

2026年1月，在政策切换与年终促销透支的双重作用下，国内车市经历深度调整。 据乘联分会初步推算，1月狭义乘用车零售市场规模约为180万辆，环比下降20.4%，同比微增0.3%。多家传统车 企和造车新品牌发布的销量数据也显示，今年1月汽车市场整体呈现销量环比下滑、同比上扬的局面。 上汽集团1月销量达32.74万辆，同比增长23.94%，为当月销量规模最高的车企。 吉利汽车集团1月乘用车销量达27.02万辆，同比增长1.29%，环比增长14.08%，成为目前唯一实现同环比正增长的 企业。 比亚迪1月销量国内下滑、海外增长。当月总销量约21万辆，其中海外市场销量超10万辆，同比增长51.47%。海 外市场的快速拓展正成为比亚迪重要的增长引擎。比亚迪品牌及公关部门总经理李云飞年初透露，公司计划在 2026年向中国以外地区销售130万辆汽车。 （文章来源：新京报） 新势力车企中，小米汽车1月交付量超3.9万辆，首次超越零跑汽车。赛力斯、极氪、蔚来1月销量同比分别增长 104.85%、99.7%和96.08%，成为当月表现亮眼的高增长梯队。 吉利汽车集团 14.08% 270167 1% 比亚迪 210051 -30. ...

Core Insights - The domestic automotive market in January 2026 experienced a significant adjustment due to policy changes and year-end promotions, with a retail market size of approximately 1.8 million vehicles, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 20.4% but a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] Group 1: Traditional Automakers - SAIC Motor Corporation achieved sales of 327,400 vehicles in January, marking a year-on-year increase of 23.94%, making it the top-selling automaker for the month [1] - Geely Automobile Group reported sales of 270,200 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 1.29% and a month-on-month increase of 14.08%, being the only company to show positive growth in both metrics [1] - BYD's total sales reached approximately 210,000 vehicles, with domestic sales declining but overseas sales exceeding 100,000 vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 51.47% [1] - Chery Group's total sales across five brands exceeded 200,000 vehicles, showing a year-on-year decline of 10.7% [2] - GAC Group's sales were 116,600 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 18.47% [2] - Great Wall Motors sold over 90,300 vehicles, achieving a year-on-year growth of 11.59% [2] Group 2: New Energy and Emerging Automakers - Xiaomi Automobile delivered over 39,000 vehicles in January, surpassing Leap Motor for the first time [2] - Emerging automakers such as Seres, Zeekr, and NIO reported year-on-year sales growth of 104.85%, 99.7%, and 96.08% respectively, indicating strong performance in the high-growth segment [2] - The sales data for several new energy vehicle companies showed significant fluctuations, with some experiencing declines while others achieved substantial growth [4]

2026年1月，在政策切换与年终促销透支的双重作用下，国内车市经历深度调整。 据乘联分会初步推算，1月狭义乘用车零售市场规模约为180万辆，环比下降20.4%，同比微增0.3%。多家传统车企和造车新品牌发布的销量数据也显示，今 年1月汽车市场整体呈现销量环比下滑、同比上扬的局面。 上汽集团1月销量达32.74万辆，同比增长23.94%，为当月销量规模最高的车企。 吉利汽车集团1月乘用车销量达27.02万辆，同比增长1.29%，环比增长14.08%，成为目前唯一实现同环比正增长的企业。 比亚迪1月销量国内下滑、海外增长。当月总销量约21万辆，其中海外市场销量超10万辆，同比增长51.47%。海外市场的快速拓展正成为比亚迪重要的增长 引擎。比亚迪品牌及公关部门总经理李云飞年初透露，公司计划在2026年向中国以外地区销售130万辆汽车。 新京报 业 贝壳财经 统筹 廖爱玲 6家自主车企2026年1月销量(辆) 0 O 上汽集团 SAIC 吉利汽车集团 比亚迪 奇瑞集团 *汽集团 长城汽车 部分新势力车企2026年1月销量(辆) ● O 赛力斯 小米 0 零跑 理想 (含乐道、萤火虫品牌) 蔚来 极氪 小鹏 岚图 . ...

Core Insights - The introduction of Tesla's limited-time financing options, including "5 years 0 interest" and "7 years ultra-low interest," has significantly impacted the second-hand car market, prompting other brands to follow suit with similar financing plans [1][2][5] - The price adjustments in the second-hand market are a direct response to the competitive financing offers from new car sales, leading to a notable decrease in inquiries and sales for second-hand Tesla models [1][4][6] Group 1: Impact on Second-Hand Market - Tesla's financing policies have led to a price imbalance, making new cars more attractive to consumers despite the lower prices of second-hand vehicles [2][5] - Some second-hand car dealers have responded by lowering prices on popular models, with reports of price reductions of at least 5,000 yuan for certain Tesla models [4][6] - The overall trend indicates that the second-hand market is experiencing price adjustments across various brands, not just Tesla, as dealers adapt to the new financing landscape [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The rapid changes in financing options have altered consumer perceptions, leading to increased scrutiny of second-hand prices compared to new models [2][6] - Dealers are now more cautious in their purchasing strategies, focusing on high-demand electric vehicle brands to mitigate risks associated with depreciation [6][9] - The average depreciation rate for new energy vehicles is significantly higher than that of traditional fuel vehicles, with some models experiencing a depreciation of over 70% within two years [7][9] Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategies - The second-hand new energy vehicle market is projected to grow, with a total transaction volume expected to exceed 16 million units by 2025, indicating a 2.52% year-on-year increase [9] - Dealers are encouraged to implement more refined management strategies and adapt quickly to changes in the new car market to remain competitive [9]

Group 1: Overall Market Performance - In January 2026, major domestic automotive groups reported strong sales performance, with several companies achieving year-on-year growth in sales [2][5][19] - SAIC Motor Corporation sold 327,413 vehicles in January, marking a 23.9% increase year-on-year [5] - Geely Automobile's sales reached 270,167 units, a 1% increase year-on-year, with a 14% month-on-month growth [8] Group 2: Brand-Specific Performance - SAIC's self-owned brands accounted for 65.3% of total sales, with a 39.6% increase in sales of self-owned brands [5] - Geely's new energy vehicle sales reached 124,252 units, representing 46% of total sales, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 3% [8][9] - BYD's total new energy vehicle sales were 210,051 units, a decline of 30.11% year-on-year, but overseas sales surged by 51.47% [12] Group 3: Export and Overseas Market Growth - Chery Group maintained its position as the top exporter of Chinese automobiles, with exports reaching 119,605 units, a year-on-year increase of 48.1% [15] - SAIC's overseas sales reached 105,000 units, a 51.7% increase year-on-year, highlighting the growing importance of international markets [6] - BYD's overseas market expansion is becoming a significant growth driver, with nearly half of its total sales coming from exports [12] Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - Geely plans to launch 1-2 new products each quarter in 2026, aiming for an annual sales target of 3.45 million units [9] - GAC Group has set ambitious overseas sales targets for 2026, aiming for 250,000 units, with a goal of reaching 100,000 units in the Asia-Pacific market by 2027 [19] - Dongfeng Motor plans to introduce five new models in 2026 to support its growth in the new energy sector [24]

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 02 月 02 日 汽车 徐姝婧 S0820124090004 021-32229888-25517 xushujing@ajzq.com 行业及产业 特斯拉高资本支出引领车企 AI 布局转型 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《2026 年汽车行业策略：智能化+全球化驱动， 把握结构性机会》2026-01-28 《智能汽车产业深度研究：L3 车型产品准入， 智能汽车发展加速》2025-12-31 《L3 准入落地，华为系景气度提升——智能汽 车系列报告（八）》2025-12-30 《首批 L3 级自动驾驶车型获准入——智能汽 车系列报告（七）》2025-12-23 《高阶智驾准入，Robotaxi 商业化提速—— Robotaxi 产业深度报告》2025-12-23 吴迪 S0820525010001 021-32229888-25523 wudi@ajzq.com 爱建证券有限责任公司 ——智能汽车系列报告（九） 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 强于大市 投资要点： 事件：1 月 29 日，特斯拉发布 2025 年度报告。公司短 ...

证券研究报告 汽车 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 02 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 李泽 SAC：S1350525030001 lize@huayuanstock.com 秦梓月 SAC：S1350525070008 qinziyue@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 主机厂原材料涨价后续影响分析 ——汽车行业周报（20260126-20260201） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 2025Q4 以来碳酸锂、六氟磷酸锂等电池原材料及铜、铝等价格均出现上涨。2020 年以来汽车原材料价格的明显上涨主要分为两轮：第一轮为 2020 年（尤其 2020Q3 开始）~2022 年（主要截至 2022Q1），彼时汽车主要原材料价格出现普涨，其中碳 酸锂涨幅居前，电池级碳酸锂价格由 2020Q3 的平均 4 万元/吨涨至 2022Q4 的平均 55 万元/吨；第二轮则为 2025Q4 以来的碳酸锂、六氟磷酸锂等电池原材料及铜、铝 等价格的上涨，2026 年 1 月 28 日电池级碳酸锂、六氟磷酸锂、LME 铜现货结算价、 中国铜 ...

Core Insights - The automotive industry faced a significant downturn at the beginning of 2026, with many companies reporting disappointing sales figures compared to December 2025, despite some year-on-year growth due to low bases from the previous year [1][4][6] - The market is experiencing a reshuffling, with new entrants like AITO and Xiaomi gaining traction while established players like Li Auto and Xpeng are struggling [3][12][20] Group 1: Market Performance - January 2026 saw a 28% year-on-year decline in retail sales of passenger vehicles, with a 37% drop compared to December 2025 [6] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) market specifically experienced a 16% year-on-year decline and a 52% month-on-month decline [6] - AITO led the new energy vehicle segment with a delivery of 40,016 units, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 83% [13] Group 2: Company-Specific Performance - Xiaomi and AITO both reported over 39,000 units delivered in January, while Li Auto and Xpeng fell below the 30,000 mark [3][15] - Li Auto's deliveries were 27,668 units, showing a 37% month-on-month decline and an 8% year-on-year decline due to battery supply issues [20][22] - NIO delivered 27,182 units, a 96.1% year-on-year increase but a 43% month-on-month decline, with the new ES8 model being a key contributor [22][23] Group 3: Competitive Strategies - Companies are responding to market pressures by adjusting pricing strategies, with BMW reducing prices on 31 models and some brands offering zero-interest loans [6][7] - AITO and Xiaomi are launching new financial purchase plans to stimulate sales, including low-interest financing options [11][23] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with companies like Geely and BYD also adjusting their strategies to maintain market share [26][28] Group 4: Traditional Automakers - Geely emerged as the top-selling automaker in January 2026 with 270,000 units sold, surpassing BYD's 210,000 units [26][28] - BYD's sales dropped by 30.11% year-on-year, with a significant 50.04% decline from December 2025 [28][30] - Chery and Great Wall Motors also reported declines, with Chery's sales at 200,269 units and Great Wall's at 90,312 units, reflecting broader market challenges [33][35]