Core Viewpoint - The January 2026 performance of the new energy vehicle market was relatively flat, but new forces in the industry showed better year-on-year performance compared to the overall market [3]. Group 1: January Delivery Data - Leap Motor delivered 32,059 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 27.4% but a month-on-month decrease of 31.9% [2]. - Li Auto delivered 27,668 vehicles, down 7.5% year-on-year and down 37.5% month-on-month [7]. - NIO delivered 27,182 vehicles, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 96.1% but a month-on-month decrease of 14.2% [6]. - Zeekr delivered 23,852 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 99.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.3% [8]. - Xpeng delivered 20,011 vehicles, down 34.1% year-on-year and down 38.0% month-on-month [5]. - Xiaomi delivered over 39,000 vehicles in January [8]. Group 2: Market Performance Analysis - The total retail market for narrow passenger cars in January was approximately 1.8 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 20.4% but a slight year-on-year increase [3]. - The new energy vehicle retail market is expected to reach 800,000 units, with a penetration rate of 44.4% [3]. - The five sample new force car companies (excluding Xiaomi and Aion) delivered a total of 130,772 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 17.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 28.0% [3]. Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Leap Motor's growth is attributed to strong product offerings like the C10 and B01, with plans to launch new models in 2026 [4]. - Xpeng's delivery decline is noted, but the company plans to launch multiple new models in 2026 [5]. - NIO's delivery increase is supported by strong sales of the ES8 and new software updates enhancing user experience [6]. - Li Auto's stable sales are backed by the L series, with ongoing expansion in the charging infrastructure [7]. - Zeekr's growth is driven by the success of the 7X model and plans for new model launches [8]. Group 4: Industry Trends - The smart driving technology is accelerating, with companies like Xpeng and Huawei leading the charge in promoting intelligent driving features [9]. - The industry is expected to see a shift towards more affordable smart driving solutions, enhancing competitiveness against joint venture brands [9]. - The rise of intelligent capabilities is becoming a critical factor in competition among automakers, with a focus on autonomous driving and user acceptance [10].

Summary of Earnings Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Market Outlook**: Solid earnings expected for capital goods companies with double-digit revenue growth and margin expansion driven by strong AI capital expenditures, favorable product mix, and increased overseas sales contributions. High commodity prices negatively impact Hongfa Technology but have less effect on other companies [1][2][3]. Key Company Insights Leader Harmonious Drive Systems (688017.SS) - **Revenue Growth**: Expected to reach 46% YoY in 4Q25, driven by increased humanoid orders and industrial robots growth [5]. - **Margin Expansion**: Anticipated margin increase to 37%, up 5 percentage points YoY [5]. Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co. Ltd. (002472.SZ) - **Revenue Growth**: NEV gears revenue expected to grow mid-teens YoY, with total revenue growth projected at 22% YoY [5]. - **Net Profit**: Estimated at Rmb348 million, a 22% increase YoY [5]. Hongfa Technology Co. Ltd. (600885.SS) - **Revenue Growth**: Projected total revenue growth of 10% in 4Q25, with strong demand across various relay segments [5]. - **Margin Compression**: Expected margin decline of 0.6 percentage points YoY to 39.5% due to rising raw material prices [5]. - **Net Profit**: Anticipated at Rmb380 million, a 5% increase YoY, which is below consensus expectations [5]. Sany Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. (600031.SS) - **Sales Growth**: Expected mid-teens growth in both domestic and overseas sales, with 4Q25 sales projected to rise 18% YoY to approximately Rmb23.5 billion [5]. - **Net Profit**: Projected to increase by 32% YoY to around Rmb1.5 billion [5]. Zoomlion Heavy Industry (000157.SZ) - **Sales Growth**: Anticipated 20% YoY increase in sales for 4Q25, with net profit expected to rise 157% YoY to approximately Rmb981 million [5]. Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co. Ltd. (601100.SS) - **Sales Growth**: Expected 25% increase in 4Q25 sales, driven by domestic up-cycle and market share gains [5]. - **Net Profit**: Projected to rise 19% YoY to Rmb855 million [5]. Shenzhen Inovance Technology (300124.SZ) - **Revenue Growth**: Automation business revenue expected to grow 18% YoY in 4Q25, with net profit projected to increase by 18% YoY to around Rmb1.1 billion [6]. WeiChai Power (2338.HK) - **Revenue Growth**: Anticipated 11% YoY growth in total revenue for 4Q25, supported by HDT industry sales growth [6]. - **Net Profit**: Expected to grow 23% YoY to Rmb3.7 billion [6]. Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited (3808.HK) - **Sales Growth**: Estimated 40% YoY growth in HDT volume sales in 2H25 [6]. - **Net Profit**: Projected to grow 34% YoY to Rmb3.4 billion [6]. Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co. Ltd. (002837.SZ) - **Revenue Growth**: Expected 24% YoY revenue growth in 4Q25, driven by data centers and ESS business [6]. - **Net Profit**: Anticipated to grow 98% YoY to Rmb198 million [6]. Additional Insights - **Commodity Prices**: High commodity prices are a concern for certain companies, particularly Hongfa Technology, which may face margin pressures [1][5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The overall positive outlook for the China Industrials sector is supported by technological advancements and increased demand for new energy vehicles [1][5]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the earnings call, highlighting the performance expectations and challenges faced by various companies within the China Industrials sector.

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing importance of industrial robots in manufacturing, driven by the rise of smart manufacturing and structural increases in labor costs, positioning robots as key tools for efficiency and cost reduction [1] Company Overview - Tianjin Atongmu Robot Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Atongmu Robot") has submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to list under Chapter 18C, with Huatai International as the sole sponsor [1] - The company focuses on the research, production, sales, and service of high-speed and high-reliability industrial robots, with products spanning parallel robots, high-speed SCARA robots, heavy-duty collaborative robots, and embodied intelligent robots [1][4] Financial Performance - Approximately 50% of Atongmu Robot's revenue comes from parallel robots, but the company has reported net losses for two consecutive years [3] - Revenue for the years 2023, 2024, and the first nine months of 2025 is approximately RMB 93.49 million, RMB 135.26 million, and RMB 156.96 million, respectively, with corresponding gross margins of 17%, 22.8%, and 28.9% [8] - The company has incurred net losses of approximately RMB -39.25 million, RMB -47.07 million, and a profit of RMB 0.938 million for the same periods [8] Product and Market Dynamics - Atongmu Robot's product matrix includes parallel robots, high-speed SCARA robots, and heavy-duty collaborative robots, with a significant portion of revenue derived from robot bodies [6][8] - The average selling prices of the company's products have declined during the reporting period, which may impact revenue [8][9] - The global and Chinese industrial robot market is projected to grow, with expected shipment values of approximately RMB 101.3 billion and RMB 46.6 billion in 2024, respectively [15][16] Competitive Landscape - The industrial robot market is characterized by intense competition, with Atongmu Robot needing to compete against multinational corporations and established domestic manufacturers [10][18] - In 2024, Atongmu Robot is expected to rank second among global parallel robot manufacturers with a market share of 4.8% and first in China with a market share of 12.3% [18] Future Outlook - The company plans to use the funds raised from the IPO for ongoing research and development, expanding its multifunctional headquarters, enhancing production capacity, and developing overseas markets [22] - The future growth of the industrial robot market is anticipated due to ongoing automation upgrades across various industries, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.3% for the global market from 2024 to 2029 [16]

《关注业绩支撑的白马反弹，科技与通胀 共振——2026/1/19-2026/1/25 汽车周 报》 2026/01/27 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱傅哲 A0230524080008 zhufz@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 2026 年 02 月 02 日 重点公司 Q4 业绩强兑现，特斯拉 再次强调 AI 转型 看好 ——2026/1/26-2026/2/1 汽车周报 本期投资提示： 行 业 及 产 业 证 券 研 究 报 告 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 汽车 ⚫ 观点：①特斯拉业绩会强调 AI 应用方向转型（机器人、智能驾驶、Robotaxi 等）， optimus V3 市场预期持续强化，关注机器人产业链估值弹性，恒勃、银轮、隆盛、拓 普、三花等。②部分重点公司业绩预告符合预期，继续建议关注有业绩支撑的白马机 会，尤其是在权重指数中的企业，包括宇通客 ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla is shifting its business focus from electric vehicles to humanoid robots, with plans to produce the "Optimus" robot in the U.S. while still relying on China's extensive robot supply chain for components [1][4]. Group 1: Tesla's Plans and Production - Elon Musk announced plans to gradually reduce the production of Model S and Model X electric vehicles to convert the Fremont factory for "Optimus" production, aiming for mass production by the end of 2026 [5]. - The long-term goal is to produce 1 million humanoid robots annually at the Fremont factory, with a third-generation "Optimus" expected to launch in a few months [5]. - Musk expressed caution regarding the current performance of "Optimus," stating it is still in the early stages of development [5]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Component Suppliers - Tesla has been engaging with hundreds of Chinese component suppliers for over three years, collaborating on research and hardware design, with some suppliers already delivering prototype parts [3]. - Key potential suppliers include Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Control, which provides thermal management components, and Ningbo Top Group, which is developing actuators and other robot parts [3]. - Bain & Company estimates that Chinese suppliers will play a significant role in the global humanoid robot supply chain, accounting for at least 55% of the material costs for core components [4]. Group 3: Cost and Market Dynamics - Morgan Stanley predicts that component suppliers are likely to benefit first from the growth of the humanoid robot industry, with an expected 16% decrease in the total material costs for humanoid robots in China this year [6]. - Tesla aims to keep the manufacturing cost of each "Optimus" robot around $20,000 (approximately 138,900 RMB) [6]. - Analysts highlight that the cost and efficiency of the Chinese supply chain are key advantages, allowing for localized production and rapid response to design changes [5].

数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，国证机器人产业指数(980022)前十大权重股分别为绿的谐波、双环传 动、机器人、石头科技、科大讯飞、科沃斯、三花智控、鸣志电器、中信重工、拓普集团，前十大权重 股合计占比39.43%。 消息面上，特斯拉宣布，第三代特斯拉人形机器人即将亮相，从第一性原理出发，进行重新设计，通过 观察人类行为即可学习新技能，预计年产百万台。 机器人ETF鹏华(159278)，场外联接(A：025698；C：025699；I：025700)。 国金证券指出， 26年是人形机器人0-1兑现的重要节点。特斯拉链预计26Q1第一代量产产品发布， 26H1供应链大批量产线建设完成，26M8开启大规模量产。国产链头部本体出货量规模有望从数千台跨 越到数万台，应用场景主要来自于二开、导览、巡检等。在这个阶段，龙头公司供应链、技术都会趋于 收敛。全球将会迈入机器人"军备竞赛"。 截至2026年2月2日 13:18，国证机器人产业指数(980022)成分股方面涨跌互现，科大智能领涨6.29%，昊 志机电上涨4.64%，震裕科技上涨2.44%；三丰智能领跌。机器人ETF鹏华(159278)最新报价1.11元，盘 ...

行业重点新闻 吉利汽车。 （2）零部件：行业反内卷背景下，盈利能力有望拐点向上，叠加下游扩展，成长性依旧较高，推荐： 德赛西威、浙江仙通、美力科技、博俊科技、金固股份，受益标的：潍柴动力、科博达、华域汽车、双 环传动、福耀玻璃、旭升集团、伯特利、瑞鹄模具、松原股份。 风险提示：乘用车行业需求不及预期；汽车行业竞争加剧；电动智能化转型不及预期；政策支持力度不 及预期；原材料价格大幅波动风险。 （1）特斯拉 Robotaxi 战略揭秘：双座 Cybercab 主攻九成出行场景，ModelY/Robovan 补位；（2）特斯 拉首次披露FSD 付费用户数据：约110 万人，占公司累计车辆销量约12%；（3）上海推出汽车置换更 新补贴：购买新能源车补贴车价8%，最高不超1.5 万元；（4）国家能源局：2027 年底将建成2800 万个 充电设施，预计拉动投资2000 亿元以上；（5）文远知行发布通用仿真模型WeRideGENESIS，几分钟 即可构建仿真城市环境；（6）玉柴发布全球首个飞轮增程技术品牌，最高发电效率突破 4.8kWh/L； （7）潍柴超10 万台份额超50%，龙擎/玉柴领涨，燃气重卡动力2025 年净 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a significant shift with the introduction of Tesla's Robotaxi strategy, focusing on a dual-seat Cybercab to address 90% of travel scenarios [5][13] - Tesla has disclosed that approximately 1.1 million Full Self-Driving (FSD) paid users account for about 12% of its total vehicle sales, with a year-on-year growth of 38% [14] - The Shanghai government has introduced a subsidy for replacing old vehicles with new energy vehicles, offering an 8% subsidy on the purchase price, capped at 15,000 yuan [14] - The National Energy Administration plans to establish 28 million charging facilities by the end of 2027, expected to drive over 200 billion yuan in investments [15] - The global humanoid robot shipment is projected to increase by 508% in 2025, with Chinese manufacturers leading the market [20][22] Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed the market, with the A-share automotive index declining by 4.67%, ranking 29th among primary industries [6][25] - The passenger vehicle index fell by 1.84%, while the commercial vehicle index decreased by 1.21% [6] - The automotive parts index saw a decline of 6.82%, with various segments experiencing different levels of performance [6] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, there is an unexpected demand in the domestic high-end luxury market, with recommendations for Jianghuai Automobile and Seres, while Geely Automobile is identified as a beneficiary [7] - In the automotive parts sector, profitability is expected to improve, with recommendations for Desay SV, Zhejiang Xiantong, Meili Technology, and others, while Weichai Power and others are seen as beneficiaries [7]

Investment Highlights - The SW auto parts index decreased by 5.74% this week, ranking 4th in the SW auto sector, with a year-to-date increase of 2.85% [3][14] - The Wande robot index fell by 6.16% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 0.48%, underperforming the SW auto parts index by 0.42% [4][14] Core Coverage Changes - Jifeng Co. is expected to turn profitable in 2025 [5] - Xingyu Co. has submitted an application for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [5] - Landai Technology, Fuda Co., and Guangyang Co. announced performance increases for 2025 [5] - New Spring Co. and Kaidi Co. have reached a strategic cooperation agreement [5] Weekly Performance of Core Coverage Stocks - Xingyu Co. +11.19% - Beite Technology +3.75% - Feilong Co. +1.57% - Fuyao Glass +0.73% [6][55] Major Events This Week - Tesla will cease production of Model S/X in Q2 2026, switching the production line to Optimus [7][47] - Li Auto is entering the humanoid robot market [7][47] Investment Recommendations 1. Auto Parts - Seek structural opportunities: prioritize product-oriented companies and those entering high-value sectors to increase ASP, and focus on potential leading companies with production capacity in Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [8] 2. Robotics - Seek certainty: Musk stated that Optimus V3 is expected to be released in Q1 2026, with the sector entering a spring rally period; attention should be paid to the order landing timeline for V3 and application deployment by domestic companies like Xiaopeng, Yushu, and Zhiyuan [8] 3. Recommended stocks based on EPS: Fuyao Glass, Xingyu Co., Minshi Group, Junsheng Electronics, and Xingyuan Zhuomei, with a focus on New Spring Co. [8] 4. Recommended stocks based on PE: Top Group, Junsheng Electronics, Shuanghuan Transmission, Minshi Group, Yinlun Co., and Feilong Co., with a focus on Yap Co. and Daimi Co. [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the automotive industry, focusing on new energy vehicles and related technologies [1]. Core Insights - The automotive market is currently experiencing a cautious atmosphere, with stakeholders observing the recovery of terminal demand and the impact of policies and costs on profitability. Short-term fluctuations in the non-ferrous sector are affecting pricing negotiations in the upstream and midstream segments. The report suggests monitoring factors that could lead to a rebound in vehicle sales in Q1, including retail and export performance, while remaining optimistic about the automotive parts sector, particularly in areas like intelligent driving, liquid cooling, and robotics [1][3]. Data Tracking - In late January, the industry discount rate decreased to 9.5%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points but a month-on-month decrease of 0.1 percentage points. The average discount amount was 21,541 yuan, up by 1,294 yuan year-on-year but down by 718 yuan month-on-month [3]. - December saw a decline in wholesale and retail sales of passenger vehicles, with wholesale sales at 2.85 million units, down 8.7% year-on-year and 6.3% month-on-month. Retail sales of domestic passenger vehicles were 2.28 million units, down 16.8% year-on-year but up 13.7% month-on-month [3]. - The report highlights specific automotive companies to watch, including Geely, JAC Motors, and BYD, with Geely being favored due to its low valuation and expected better-than-expected performance in domestic sales [5]. Industry News - In January, the China Passenger Car Association reported that the automotive industry generated revenues of 1,117.96 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, while costs rose by 8.1% to 984.98 billion yuan, resulting in a profit of 46.1 billion yuan, up 0.6% [31]. - The report notes significant developments in the electric vehicle sector, including a partnership between a Vietnamese manufacturer and BYD to establish a commercial electric vehicle battery factory, and the launch of new electric models by various companies [31][32]. - The report also mentions the implementation of new national standards for automotive steering systems and automatic emergency braking systems, which are expected to enhance safety and technology in the industry [31][32].