每经编辑｜张锦河 11月14日，外交部和中国驻日本使领馆就中国公民前往日本发布郑重提醒。15日，国航、南航、东航、川航等多家航司已发出通知，公布了涉及日本航线客 票的特殊处置方案，对于出行日期在12月31日之前且符合相关条件的客票，可予以免费退改处理。 国航在通知中明确，对于在今年11月15日12时（含）前购买或换开产生新票号的国航999开头的客票（包括里程奖励客票）；客票未使用行程涉及旅行日期 为2025年11月15日（含）至2025年12月31日（含）之间东京、大阪、名古屋、福冈、仙台、广岛、札幌、冲绳进出港的国航实际承运航班和挂CA航班号的 代码共享航班；在2025年11月15日0时（含）以后申请客票变更或退票（以取消客票订座时间为准）。在客票有效期内，首次变更免收变更手续费，但需收 取子舱位差价及淡旺季差价，再次变更需依据客票使用条件办理。在客票有效期内，可以办理未使用航段退票，免收退票手续费。 南航表示，对于在今年11月15日12:00（含）前购买或换开的南航784开头的客票，且客票未使用行程涉及旅行日期在2025年11月15日（含）至2025年12月31 日（含）之间的日本进、出港（含经停）南航实 ...

14日，外交部和中国驻日本使领馆就中国公民前往日本发布郑重提醒。 15日，国航、南航、东航三 家航司已发出通知，公布了涉及日本航线客票的特殊处置方案，对于出行日期在12月31日之前且符 合相关条件的客票，可予以免费退改处理。 东航在通知中明确，对于在今年11月15日12:00（含）前购买或换开的东航781客票填开的国 际、地区或国内航班。客票中至少含有一段未使用的涉及日本（包括但不限于东京、大阪、广 岛、札幌、小松、鹿儿岛、长崎、新泻、冈山、福冈、静冈、名古屋、松山、冲绳、富山、熊 本）进港、出港或经停航班（包括东航、上航或其他航空公司航班），航班起飞日期在2025年 11月15日至2025年12月31日期间，同一客票内的其他未使用航段日期不限。办理变更至原航班 前后3天（含）以内的航班，可免费变更一次。再次变更或变更超出原航班前后3天（含）内的 航班，需依据客票使用条件办理。在客票有效期内，可至原购票渠道办理未使用航段非自愿退 票，免收退票手续费。 国航在通知中明确，对于在今年11月15日12时（含）前购买或换开产生新票号的国航999开头 的客票（包括里程奖励客票）；客票未使用行程涉及旅行日期为2025年1 ...

Core Points - Three major Chinese airlines, Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, announced special ticket handling policies for flights to Japan, allowing free changes and refunds for tickets purchased before November 15, 2025 [1][2][3] Group 1: Air China - Air China allows free changes and refunds for tickets purchased before November 15, 2025, for flights to Tokyo, Osaka, Nagoya, Fukuoka, Sendai, Hiroshima, Sapporo, and Okinawa, with travel dates between November 15, 2025, and December 31, 2025 [1] - The first change is free of charge, but fare differences may apply, and subsequent changes will follow the ticket's usage conditions [1] Group 2: China Southern Airlines - China Southern Airlines offers similar policies for tickets purchased before November 15, 2025, for flights to Japan, with travel dates from November 15, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [2] - The first change to the same itinerary is free, but fare differences will be charged, and further changes will adhere to the ticket's usage conditions [2] Group 3: China Eastern Airlines - China Eastern Airlines allows free changes for tickets purchased before November 15, 2025, for flights involving Japan, with travel dates from November 15, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [3][4] - Passengers can change their flights to dates within three days before or after the original flight without a fee, while further changes will follow the ticket's usage conditions [3][4]

客票同时满足以下三点： （一）在2025年11月15日12时（含）前购买或换开产生新票号的国航999开头的客票（包括里程奖励客票）； （二）客票未使用行程涉及旅行日期为2025年11月15日（含）至2025年12月31日（含）之间东京、大阪、名古 屋、福冈、仙台、广岛、札幌、冲绳进出港的国航实际承运航班和挂CA航班号的代码共享航班； 新京报讯 11月14日晚，外交部领事司提醒中国公民近期避免前往日本。11月15日，国航、东航、南航均发布关于 日本航线客票特殊处理的通知，对于出行日期在12月31日之前且符合相关条件的客票，可予以免费退改处理。以 下为全文： 国航发布涉及日本航线客票特殊处置方案的通知 根据外交部近期发布的出行提醒，为协助受影响旅客更好地安排出行，现发布国航涉及日本航线进出港航班客票 特殊处置方案，具体内容如下： 一、适用条件 （三）在2025年11月15日0时（含）以后申请客票变更或退票（以取消客票订座时间为准）。 二、客票变更及退票规则 如您未确定新的旅行时间，请在航班计划起飞时间前联系原购票渠道、国航客服热线95583或营业网点取消客票订 座，待确定新的旅行时间后，按如下规则办理客票变更或退 ...

Core Points - Three major airlines in China, Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, have announced special handling measures for tickets related to Japan routes, allowing free changes and refunds for eligible tickets purchased before November 15, 2023 [1][5]. Group 1: Air China - Air China allows free changes for tickets purchased before November 15, 2023, for travel dates between November 15, 2025, and December 31, 2025, for flights to and from various Japanese cities [3]. - The first change is free of charge, but fare differences and seasonal price differences will apply; subsequent changes will follow ticket usage conditions [3]. - Refunds for unused segments can be processed without a cancellation fee within the ticket's validity [3]. Group 2: China Southern Airlines - China Southern Airlines offers similar provisions for tickets purchased before November 15, 2023, for travel dates between November 15, 2025, and December 31, 2025, for flights to and from Japan [4]. - Passengers can cancel their seats before the flight without incurring a refund fee, and the first change to the same itinerary is also free, with fare differences applicable [4]. Group 3: China Eastern Airlines - China Eastern Airlines has outlined that tickets purchased before November 15, 2023, for travel dates between November 15, 2025, and December 31, 2025, involving Japan routes are eligible for free changes within three days of the original flight [4]. - Additional changes or changes outside the three-day window will be subject to ticket usage conditions [4]. - Refunds for unused segments can be processed without a cancellation fee within the ticket's validity [4]. Group 4: Safety Advisory - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a warning for citizens to avoid traveling to Japan due to rising safety concerns and incidents involving Chinese nationals [5][6]. - Citizens currently in Japan are advised to stay vigilant and contact local authorities or the Chinese consulate in case of emergencies [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent advisory from the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Chinese embassies in Japan, urging Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan due to safety concerns, which has led to major Chinese airlines offering free ticket changes and refunds for flights to Japan [5][6]. Group 1: Advisory and Airline Responses - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a warning regarding the safety of Chinese citizens in Japan, citing an increase in criminal incidents against them [5][6]. - Major Chinese airlines, including Eastern Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Air China, have implemented free ticket change and refund policies for flights to Japan from November 15 to December 31, 2025 [5][6]. - The advisory has sparked significant discussion on social media about the safety of traveling to Japan [7]. Group 2: Travel Trends and Market Impact - Japan was a popular travel destination for Chinese tourists during the recent National Day holiday, with high demand leading to sold-out flights [7]. - Following the holiday, there has been a notable decline in demand for flights to Japan, with ticket prices dropping below 500 yuan, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7]. - The weekly flight volume from mainland China to Japan has decreased significantly, with a reported 14.5% drop compared to the previous week [9]. Group 3: Shift in Travel Preferences - Due to safety concerns in Thailand, there has been a shift in travel demand towards Japan and South Korea, with airlines potentially reallocating capacity from Japan to other routes [9]. - Spring Airlines reported strong demand for South Korea, while the Japanese market has seen an increase in supply, leading to improved demand-supply dynamics [9]. - The Southeast Asian market is gradually recovering as travelers perceive conventional tourism as having no significant risks [9].

Group 1 - Japan has become a popular destination for Chinese travelers during the National Day holiday, leading to increased flight bookings and demand [5] - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and embassies in Japan have issued warnings regarding safety concerns for Chinese citizens traveling to Japan, citing a rise in criminal incidents [3][4] - Major Chinese airlines, including China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Air China, have implemented free ticket change and refund policies for flights to Japan, effective for travel from November 15 to December 31, 2025 [1][3] Group 2 - Following the holiday, there has been a significant drop in demand for flights to Japan, with ticket prices plummeting to below 500 yuan, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6] - The weekly flight volume from mainland China to Japan has decreased significantly, with a reported 82.9% recovery rate compared to the same period in 2019, and a 14.5% week-on-week decline [6] - Airlines may reduce flights to Japan and reallocate capacity to other routes, particularly to Southeast Asia, which is experiencing a resurgence in travel demand [8]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting strong supply logic and elastic demand, with specific recommendations for several airlines and global aircraft leasing companies [4][104][105]. Core Insights - The global aviation market is experiencing steady recovery, with passenger turnover (RPK) increasing by 4.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by international routes [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing constraints in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain, predicting that the trend of aging aircraft will continue for the next 5-10 years, leading to significant supply limitations [4][104]. - Airlines are expected to see substantial improvements in profitability as they approach a pivotal moment in the industry, with a notable increase in international passenger traffic anticipated [4][104]. Summary by Sections Global Aviation Market Overview - The global aviation market is stabilizing, with RPK growth of 4.8% and ASK growth of 4.7% in the first three quarters of 2025, resulting in an overall passenger load factor increase to 83.5% [4][7]. - The Asia-Pacific region leads in RPK growth at 7.7%, while North America shows minimal growth [4][13]. U.S. Aviation Market Tracking - In Q3 2025, U.S. airline ticket sales saw a rebound with domestic passenger volume up by 7.4% and average ticket prices increasing by 4.1% [4][43]. - The report notes a divergence in performance among major U.S. airlines, with Delta Airlines showing significant profit growth while American Airlines reported losses [4][61][69]. European Aviation Market Tracking - The European aviation market has shown steady recovery, with passenger volumes returning to pre-pandemic levels and ticket prices experiencing slight increases [4][74][83]. - Lufthansa reported a 4% increase in revenue for Q3 2025, driven by strong demand for leisure travel [4][83]. Asian Aviation Market Tracking - Major airports in Southeast Asia and Japan are experiencing continued growth, with passenger volumes surpassing pre-pandemic levels [4][88][94]. - The report highlights the strong recovery in passenger traffic at key transit airports, benefiting from robust demand [4][94]. Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the aviation sector is at a turning point, with airlines likely to experience a "golden era" of profitability due to increasing international travel and effective capacity management [4][104]. - Specific airline recommendations include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines, among others, with a focus on companies showing continuous improvement in performance [4][104][105].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - From November 10 to November 14, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds increased month - on - month, and the industry credit spreads showed mixed trends [1] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market 1.1 Issuance Statistics - From November 10 to November 14, 2025, 330 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 455.379 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 25.31% [1][11] - In terms of issuance scale, 161 industrial bonds were issued, with a scale of 169.68 billion yuan, a 4.09% month - on - month decrease, accounting for 37.26% of the total credit bond issuance scale; 122 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 81.729 billion yuan, a 19.25% month - on - month decrease, accounting for 17.95% of the total scale; 47 financial bonds were issued, with a scale of 203.97 billion yuan, a 139.20% month - on - month increase, accounting for 44.79% of the total scale [1][11] - In terms of issuance term, the average issuance term of credit bonds was 2.75 years. The average issuance term of industrial bonds was 2.25 years, urban investment bonds was 3.51 years, and financial bonds was 2.13 years [1][15] - In terms of issuance coupon rate, the average issuance coupon rate of credit bonds was 2.12%. The average issuance coupon rate of industrial bonds was 2.06%, urban investment bonds was 2.26%, and financial bonds was 1.94% [2][19] 1.2 Cancellation of Issuance Statistics - Two credit bonds cancelled issuance this week, namely "25 Huadian Jiangsu SCP027" and "25 Xingmei 01" [3][24] 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Credit Spread Tracking - This week, industry credit spreads showed mixed trends. Among Shenwan primary industries, the largest upward movement in AAA - rated industry credit spreads was in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, up 6.5BP, and the largest downward movement was in steel, down 3.5BP; for AA + - rated industry credit spreads, the largest upward movement was in electronics, up 1.4BP, and the largest downward movement was in the automobile industry, down 16.6BP; for AA - rated industry credit spreads, the largest upward movement was in transportation, up 0.9BP, and the largest downward movement was in mining, down 3.9BP [3][26] - For urban investment bonds by region, among AAA - rated bonds, the largest upward movement in credit spreads was in Zhejiang, up 3BP, and the largest downward movement was in Yunnan, down 10.2BP; for AA + - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Fujian, up 2.6BP, and the largest downward movement was in Yunnan, down 10.6BP; for AA - rated bonds, the largest upward movement was in Chongqing, up 3.1BP, and the largest downward movement was in Henan, down 5.7BP [3][29] 2.2 Trading Volume Statistics - The total trading volume of credit bonds was 1219.783 billion yuan, a 5.53% month - on - month decrease. The top three in terms of trading volume were commercial bank bonds, corporate bonds, and medium - term notes. Specifically, the trading volume of commercial bank bonds was 375.608 billion yuan, a 3.93% month - on - month increase, accounting for 30.79% of the total credit bond trading volume; the trading volume of corporate bonds was 414.081 billion yuan, a 7.86% month - on - month decrease, accounting for 33.95% of the total volume; the trading volume of medium - term notes was 243.078 billion yuan, a 16.01% month - on - month decrease, accounting for 19.93% of the total volume [4][30] 2.3 Active Bonds Traded This Week - The report selects the top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of trading volume this week for investors' reference, including information such as bond codes, names, trading volumes, average trading yields, and issuers [32][33][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 21.81 CNY [2][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's profitability is expected to rebound despite short-term pressures from engine maintenance affecting fleet turnover in the first three quarters of 2025. The overall industry supply and demand are projected to improve, and the company's high-quality route network is anticipated to demonstrate significant profit elasticity [3][14]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 20,096 million CNY in 2023 to 27,036 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.6% [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 778 million CNY in 2023 to 2,641 million CNY in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 118.8% in 2023 and 32.3% in 2027 [5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.36 CNY in 2023 to 1.21 CNY in 2027 [5]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 9.0% in 2023 to 20.0% in 2027 [5]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 32,214 million CNY, with a 52-week stock price range of 12.17 to 15.28 CNY [6]. - The current stock price is 14.75 CNY, indicating a potential upside based on the target price [14]. Operational Insights - The company operates a fleet of 130 aircraft, with about 25% equipped with Pratt & Whitney engines, which are subject to maintenance issues affecting profitability [14]. - The introduction of the B787 wide-body aircraft is expected to enhance the company's international operations, with optimistic long-term prospects for profitability [14]. Comparative Analysis - The report includes a comparative valuation of similar airlines, indicating that the company maintains a competitive position within the industry [16][17].