证券研究报告 | 2025年03月16日 美国农业部（USDA）月度供需报告数据分析专题 优于大市 全球大豆压榨量环比调增，中国玉米进口预估进一步下修 种植链农产品：中国玉米进口量预估下修，全球大豆压榨量调增。 1）玉米：国内供需宽松顶部已现，玉米价格有望维持温和上涨。USDA3 月供 需报告将玉米 24/25 产季期末库销比环比调减 0.13%至 23.32%，其中，中国 玉米 24/25 年度进口目标较 2 月预估进一步下调 200 万吨至 800 万吨玉米， 最终中国玉米期末库销比环比减 0.64%至 64.27%。目前国内玉米价格已处于 历史周期底部位置，中储粮自 2024 年 12 月起多次扩大收储，提振国内玉米 市场，后续预计价格底部支撑较强。 2）大豆：南美丰产压力下预计上半年价格维持底部震荡，新季美国大豆减 产或在今年秋季兑现。USDA3 月供需报告中预计 24/25 产季全球产量维持、 压榨量调增、期末库存略减，最终全球大豆期末库销比环比调减 0.94pcts 至 29.67%；总体 2025 上半年全球大豆供应压力仍大，考虑到贸易政策扰动 影响，预计价格维持底部震荡。当前豆系产品价格处于历 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [5] Core Views - The agricultural sector is expected to perform better than the market, with specific focus on corn, soybeans, wheat, sugar, cotton, and livestock [5] Corn - The USDA March report indicates a slight increase in global corn production and usage, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio adjusted down by 0.13% to 23.32% [16][17] - China's corn import target for the 2024/25 season has been revised down by 2 million tons to 8 million tons, leading to a reduction in the ending stocks-to-use ratio to 64.27% [17][18] - Domestic corn prices are expected to maintain a recovery trend supported by state reserves and a historical price bottom [19][20] Soybeans - The USDA report maintains global soybean production estimates while increasing the crushing volume by 0.84% to 295 million tons, with ending stocks reduced to 121.41 million tons [25][26] - The soybean market is expected to experience price fluctuations in the first half of 2025, with long-term trends indicating a tightening supply [28][29] - The U.S. soybean planting area is projected to decrease by 3.6%, which may lead to a tighter supply in the upcoming season [31] Wheat - The USDA report shows an increase in global wheat production and consumption, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio rising to 32.24% [35][36] - China's wheat import target for the 2024/25 season has been reduced by 1.5 million tons to 6.5 million tons, indicating a relatively loose supply situation [36][37] Sugar - The report indicates a continuation of a loose supply-demand balance for sugar, with domestic production expected to increase by 1.04 million tons [4] - Short-term sugar prices are anticipated to remain weak due to high inventory levels and seasonal consumption patterns [4] Cotton - Global cotton demand is projected to increase, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio adjusted down to 67.21% [4] - Domestic cotton prices are at historical lows, and a recovery in demand could lead to a rebound [4] Livestock - U.S. pork prices are expected to see a slight increase, while domestic pig prices may decline, but low-cost producers are likely to maintain profitability [7] - The poultry market is affected by avian influenza, with expectations for a gradual recovery in supply [7] - Egg supply in China is currently abundant, with pressure on prices expected to persist throughout the year [7]

春季关注春耕备货，宠物关注新品动向 [Table_Industry] 农业 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 上次评级: 增持 wangyanjun022998@gtjas.com linyidan030085@gtjas.com 登记编号 S0880520100002 S0880524090001 本报告导读： 种子：玉米现货价格继续上涨，关注春耕备货。宠物：京宠展召开，看好宠物经济 蓬勃发展，关注国产品牌新品动向。饲料行业：饲料竞争再起。 投资要点： [种业： Table_Summary] 玉米现货价格继续上涨，关注春耕备货 上周玉米现货价格继续上涨，突破 2218 元/吨，延续年初以来的涨 势。2025 年在美国加征关税背景下，我国玉米粮食进口或进一步缩 减，看好 2025 年玉米粮价景气度回升。近期农业农村部发布 19 项 课题目录，包括"保障国家粮食安全的路径选择"、"粮食作物大 面积单产提升瓶颈制约与对策研究"等，体现政策对于粮食安全的 重视。转基因技术应用推动种业格局进一步改善，品种竞争力强、 技术储备领先的公司有望受益。春耕在即，建议关注种子经销商补 货情况，具备强竞争力的品种或在 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1][5][39] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recovery potential of undervalued leading breeding companies and the long-term upward trend in rubber prices [1][3][14] - Key recommendations include focusing on high ROE value stocks in the breeding sector and identifying growth opportunities in the pet food market [1][3][39] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: - For pets: Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Rui Pu Biological [1][3][16] - For breeding: Mu Yuan Co., Hua Tong Co., and Wen's Food Group [1][3][39] - For rubber: Hainan Rubber, a leading global player in natural rubber cultivation and processing [1][3][22] Breeding Sector - The breeding sector is expected to maintain low volatility in production capacity, with overall supply-demand balance remaining stable [1][17][39] - Specific insights include: - Swine prices were reported at 14.46 CNY/kg, down 8.88% month-on-month, with a slight increase in average weight [2][25] - Poultry supply is at a low, with potential demand recovery as macroeconomic conditions improve [30][35] Planting Chain - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies with R&D and integration advantages in the seed industry [1][19][39] - Key recommendations include: - Hainan Rubber, with significant production and processing capabilities [1][22] Market Trends - The report notes that the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index increased by 0.20% in February, underperforming compared to the broader market [2][5] - The report also highlights the strong performance of specific stocks, such as Tianye Co. and Dayu Biological, with notable increases in their stock prices [2][5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [61] Core Insights - The report indicates that the supply pressure in the pig farming sector is evident, with a slight increase in pig prices followed by a decline due to restored supply [2][9]. - The white feather broiler market is experiencing price increases, supported by improved slaughter profits and a successful import of breeding stock from France by Yisheng [3][31]. - The 2025 Central Document No. 1 emphasizes food security and technological innovation in agriculture, highlighting the importance of enhancing grain supply capabilities and promoting agricultural technology [39][41]. Summary by Sections Pig Farming - March pig slaughter is expected to increase month-on-month, but prices may remain weak due to supply pressures. As of March 7, the national average pig price was 14.45 CNY/kg, a decrease of 0.06 CNY/kg week-on-week [2][9]. - Slaughterhouse daily average slaughter volume increased to 140,700 heads, up 3.53% week-on-week, while frozen product inventory rates rose to 15.58%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points [10][24]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter increased to 127.06 kg, up 0.54 kg week-on-week, indicating a trend of rising weights alongside increased slaughter rates [14][24]. White Feather Broilers - The price of white feather broilers has continued to rise, reaching 6.59 CNY/kg as of March 7, an increase of 0.49 CNY/kg week-on-week, driven by improved market conditions and slaughter profits [3][26]. - Yisheng has successfully imported breeding stock from France, which is expected to strengthen its supply chain amid tight supply conditions for parent stock due to previous import restrictions [31][31]. Seed Industry - The 2025 Central Document emphasizes food security, mentioning "grain" 15 times and outlining measures to enhance grain production and quality [39][41]. - The document introduces the concept of "new agricultural productivity," focusing on the application of technology in agriculture, including biotechnology and artificial intelligence [41][41]. - Investment opportunities are suggested in the areas of biological breeding and smart agriculture, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [41][41].

Group 1: Education Industry - The government work report emphasizes the importance of education and aims to enhance educational inclusivity through a three-year action plan for building a strong education system [30][31] - Key initiatives include gradually implementing free preschool education, expanding high school enrollment, and promoting vocational education integration [31] - Recommended stocks in the education sector include Xueda Education, Action Education, New Oriental, and others, which are expected to benefit from the government's focus on educational inclusivity [30] Group 2: Home Appliance Industry - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds to support consumer goods replacement programs, with 300 billion yuan allocated specifically for appliance upgrades [33][34] - The expected increase in subsidies for appliance replacement is anticipated to drive stable growth in demand for home appliances, benefiting companies with strong digital capabilities and mature channel layouts [34] - Recommended companies in the home appliance sector include Midea Group, Boss Electric, and Hisense, which are expected to gain from the favorable policies [35] Group 3: Construction Industry - The government aims to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit rate set at 4% and plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in long-term special bonds to support infrastructure projects [38][39] - The construction sector is expected to benefit from improved liquidity and increased funding sources due to the government's monetary policy adjustments [37] - Recommended low-valuation state-owned enterprises in the construction sector include China Communications Construction and China State Construction Engineering [40] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report highlights the integration of AI in healthcare, significantly enhancing service efficiency and quality across various medical applications [42][43] - Companies like Aier Eye Hospital and Meinian Health are expected to benefit from advancements in AI technology that streamline clinical processes and improve patient care [42] - The focus on AI-driven healthcare solutions is anticipated to lead to cost reductions and improved operational efficiency for healthcare providers [42] Group 5: Agricultural Industry - The government emphasizes food security and the importance of maintaining arable land quality, with a focus on increasing crop yields through technology [46][47] - Leading seed companies are expected to benefit from the government's push for agricultural innovation and technology application [46] - The report outlines plans to stabilize grain planting areas while enhancing productivity through advanced agricultural practices [47]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the agricultural sector [2]. Core Insights - The report discusses the impact of the recent U.S. tariffs on Chinese agricultural imports, particularly focusing on grains, meat, and other agricultural products [2]. - It highlights that China's reliance on U.S. imports for certain agricultural products has decreased since the 2018 trade war, with significant shifts in import sources [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of food security in China's trade policies and suggests that short-term supply constraints may support prices for corn and soybean meal, affecting livestock profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Grains - Tariffs of 15% on wheat and corn, and 10% on sorghum and soybeans will impact supply, but China's self-sufficiency in rice is strong [2]. - China's soybean imports have stabilized between 90 million to 100 million tons, with a significant portion sourced from Brazil [2][3]. - The report notes that the U.S. share of soybean imports has decreased from 34% in 2017 to 21% in 2024 [2]. Meat - The report states that U.S. imports of meat products are minimal, with chicken imports making up about 6.6% of total consumption, and only 0.7% from the U.S. [2]. - For pork, the import share is around 2%, with U.S. imports constituting 0.1% of total consumption [2]. - Beef imports are more significant, with 27% of consumption coming from imports, and 5% from the U.S. [2]. Other Products - Cotton imports are noted to be 33.2% of total consumption, with about one-third sourced from the U.S. [2]. - The report indicates that vegetable and fruit imports are relatively low, with less than 3% of total consumption coming from imports [2]. - Dairy products have an import share of about 5%, with U.S. imports being a minor fraction [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in seed and planting, such as Longping High-Tech and Dena Seed, as well as livestock companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2]. - It highlights that soybeans, sorghum, and cotton have relatively high import shares from the U.S., indicating potential investment opportunities [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent announcement by the State Council to impose additional tariffs on certain U.S. agricultural products is expected to benefit both planting and breeding sectors, leading to an increase in domestic agricultural product prices [3][5] - The range of products affected by the tariffs has expanded from agricultural machinery to major agricultural products such as grains and meats, which will increase import costs and support domestic prices [4][5] - The domestic soybean market, heavily reliant on imports, is expected to see reduced import volumes and increased prices, supporting a strong market for soybeans and soybean meal [4][6] - The overall self-sufficiency rate for meat in China is high, but imports from the U.S. still account for about 1% of total consumption, and the reduction in imports is expected to support domestic meat prices [4][6] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - Starting from March 10, 2025, China will impose a 15% tariff on chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, and a 10% tariff on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products [3][5] Planting Chain - The increase in tariffs on corn, wheat, and sorghum is expected to pressure overall import volumes and costs, supporting a rebound in corn prices [4][6] - The domestic soybean market is projected to remain strong due to limited imports and increased prices, with Brazil being the main alternative supplier [6][8] Breeding Chain - The reduction in imports and increased costs are anticipated to support the recovery of domestic meat prices, particularly for pork and chicken [4][6] - Recommendations for investment in the breeding sector include companies such as Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Agricultural University, and New Hope Liuhe [9][12] Investment Recommendations - For the planting chain, companies such as Qianyuan High-Tech, Fengle Seed Industry, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds are highlighted as key investment opportunities [9][12] - In the breeding chain, recommended companies include Muyuan Foods, Huazhong Agricultural University, and Tiankang Biological [9][12]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [10] Core Insights - The Central Document No. 1 emphasizes "new agricultural productivity" and the need for rural revitalization, highlighting the importance of food security and the promotion of biotechnology and smart agriculture [1][14] - The report identifies key investment opportunities in various sectors, including seeds, low-altitude economy, infrastructure, and animal husbandry [2][3][4][5][6] Seed Sector - The document mentions "food" 15 times, stressing national food security and the need to enhance crop yields through biotechnology [2][14] - The commercialization of genetically modified corn is expected to accelerate, benefiting leading seed companies [2] - Recommended companies include Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Quanyin High-Tech [2] Low-Altitude Economy - The report supports the development of smart agriculture and low-altitude technologies, predicting a trillion-yuan market by 2030 [2][15] - Applications of drones in agriculture are expected to grow, benefiting companies involved in agricultural drone technology [2] Infrastructure - Emphasis on soil protection and quality improvement, with initiatives for high-standard farmland construction and water conservancy projects [2][15] - Quality enterprises in agriculture, fertilizers, and agricultural reclamation are expected to benefit [2] Swine Sector - The average price of live pigs is stable at 14.67 yuan/kg, with a decrease in profitability for self-breeding farms [3][16] - The supply of pigs is expected to remain high, while demand is sluggish post-Spring Festival [3][16] - Recommended companies include Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and New Hope Liuhe [3][17] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the impact of restricted overseas breeding on supply, with a significant drop in domestic breeding stock [4][19] - Chicken prices have rebounded, with recommendations for companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng Livestock [4][19] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is recommended due to its improving fundamentals and relative valuation [6][21] - The report notes a potential recovery in the aquaculture feed market after a prolonged downturn [6][21] Animal Health Sector - The report emphasizes new market opportunities in pet health products and the introduction of innovative vaccines [7][22] - Recommended companies include Kexin Biological and Zhongmu Biological [7][22] Pet Sector - Domestic pet brands are growing rapidly, with a notable increase in pet food exports [8][24] - Recommended companies include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co. [8][24]

再次押对主线。 作者 | 市值风云基金研究部 编辑 | 小白 亮眼的业绩，带来的是大批资金的追随。 除了两只定开基金外，他旗下的其它产品年内均实现不同程度的份额增长，增幅最大的是其代表作万 家品质生活A（519195.OF），达76%。 莫海波咱们之前详细分析过，他是一个自上而下的选手，擅长择时，每年着重配置两三个更具性价比 的行业来轮动，超额收益有60%-70%是靠择时和行业选择贡献。 去年是莫海波峰回路转的一年，其在管基金规模逆势增长92%，来到了146亿。 （来源：Choice数据） 而背后，无非是业绩的增长和基民的蜂拥追买。 注：如无特殊说明，全文数据截止2025年1月21日。 押对方向！旗下基金平均回报33% 莫海波管理的6只基金在去年均获得30%以上的收益，平均回报33%，大幅跑赢沪深300指数（14. 7%），表现相当不错。 | | | | | 莫海波旗下基金(截至2025年1月21日) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基金代码 | 基金名称 | 任职日期 | 24年合并规模 ...