Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has implemented an emergency ban on non-dollar denominated metal options, which has significant implications for the global metal trading landscape and the rise of the Renminbi (RMB) as a settlement currency [2][4]. Group 1: Impact of LME's Ban - The LME's ban is seen as a targeted move by the U.S. to curb the penetration of the RMB in strategic metal settlements, reflecting a shift in the global metal industry dynamics [4][6]. - The ban has forced companies like Volkswagen and China Aluminum to incur additional costs, with aluminum contracts increasing by €200 per ton due to the need to convert to dollars [7]. - French company Total Energy faced a $30 million loss due to currency fluctuations when forced to switch to dollar settlements for rare earths previously agreed in RMB [9]. Group 2: Shift in Trading Dynamics - The LME's internal data shows that the trading volume of RMB-denominated metal options has increased from 0.3% in 2020 to 8.7% in 2024, indicating a growing acceptance of RMB in the metal trading sector [11]. - The LME's pricing power is perceived to be weakening, as evidenced by the increasing push from Chinese companies to engage in cross-border arbitrage with the Shanghai Metal Exchange [11][13]. - China's dominance in the metal industry is underscored by its significant share in global consumption and production, with 54% of refined copper and 70% of rare earth oxide production [13][15]. Group 3: RMB's Growing Influence - The RMB's role in international transactions is bolstered by China's position as both the largest buyer and seller of key metals, enhancing its bargaining power for RMB settlements [17]. - The shift to RMB settlements is exemplified by the automotive sector, where European companies have increased their RMB transactions from 5% to 22% in 2023 due to supply chain stability concerns [19]. - China's strategic agreements with countries like Chile for copper procurement are increasingly favoring RMB settlements, with a 30% increase in annual procurement volume under RMB terms [24][26]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The LME's ban has inadvertently accelerated the adoption of RMB in global metal transactions, with a reported 23% drop in metal options trading volume at the LME following the ban [32]. - The RMB's share in global metal settlements is projected to rise from 7% to 15% by the end of 2024, while the dollar's share is expected to decrease from 82% to 72% [34]. - The ongoing evolution of the global metal pricing structure is moving towards a dual system of "dollar + RMB," indicating a significant shift in the monetary landscape [34][36].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to select stocks from the analyst-recommended stock pool based on both fundamental and technical aspects, focusing on stocks with fundamental support and technical resonance[13][15]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Construct an analyst-recommended stock pool based on events such as analyst earnings forecast upgrades, initial analyst coverage, and analyst report titles exceeding expectations[15]. - **Step 2**: Perform dual-layer selection on the stocks in the analyst-recommended stock pool from both fundamental and technical dimensions[15]. - **Step 3**: Select stocks that exhibit both fundamental support and technical resonance to construct the Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio[15]. - **Backtesting Period**: 2010-01-01 to 2025-06-30, with an annualized return of 19.11% and an excess return of 18.48% relative to the Hang Seng Index after considering transaction costs in a fully invested state[15]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively combines fundamental and technical analysis to select outperforming stocks, demonstrating significant excess returns over the benchmark index[15]. Model Backtesting Results - **Hong Kong Stock Selection Portfolio**: - **Absolute Return**: 69.65% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 37.18% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Annualized Return**: 19.11%[15] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 18.48%[15] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.22[19] - **Tracking Error**: 14.55%[19] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[19] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.78[19] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: 250-Day New High Distance - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor measures the distance of the latest closing price from the highest closing price in the past 250 trading days, indicating the stock's momentum and trend-following potential[22]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Formula**: $$ \text{250-Day New High Distance} = 1 - \frac{\text{Close}_{t}}{\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}} $$ where $\text{Close}_{t}$ is the latest closing price, and $\text{ts\_max(Close, 250)}$ is the maximum closing price in the past 250 trading days[22]. - **Interpretation**: If the latest closing price sets a new high, the 250-Day New High Distance is 0; if the latest closing price falls from the new high, the distance is positive, indicating the extent of the decline[22]. - **Screening Criteria**: Stocks that have set a 250-day new high in the past 20 trading days are filtered based on analyst attention, relative stock strength, price path stability, and new high continuity[22][23]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures momentum and trend-following characteristics, which are significant in the Hong Kong stock market[20]. Factor Backtesting Results - **250-Day New High Distance Factor**: - **Absolute Return**: 69.65% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 37.18% (2025 YTD)[17] - **Annualized Return**: 19.11%[15] - **Excess Return Relative to Hang Seng Index**: 18.48%[15] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 1.22[19] - **Tracking Error**: 14.55%[19] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 23.73%[19] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 0.78[19]

Group 1: IPO Details - The IPO is scheduled for November 24, 2025, with a suggested subscription date of November 14, 2025[1] - The offering price ranges from HKD 10.18 to HKD 10.99, with a midpoint of HKD 10.58[1] - The total fundraising amount is estimated at HKD 51.13 billion, net of underwriting fees and estimated global offering expenses[1] - The total number of shares offered is 500 million, subject to adjustments based on the exercise of the over-allotment option[1] Group 2: Company Overview - The company focuses on the electrolytic aluminum business, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting[2] - It ranks as the 12th largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China, with a significant production base in Inner Mongolia[2] Group 3: Market Trends - The domestic electrolytic aluminum market is in a tight supply-demand balance, with prices expected to rise gradually until 2029[3] - Key growth drivers include energy transition, vehicle electrification, and lightweighting, particularly in China[3] Group 4: Cost Efficiency - The company has achieved a high self-sufficiency rate in electricity supply, with rates of approximately 81%, 81%, 88%, 84%, and 87% from 2022 to May 2025, exceeding the market average of 57% in 2024[4] - The average electricity cost for producing one ton of electrolytic aluminum is significantly lower than the industry average, with costs of RMB 5,439, RMB 5,266, and RMB 4,786 for 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively[6] Group 5: Financial Performance - The company has shown rapid net profit growth, with net profits of RMB 912.9 million, RMB 1,080.6 million, and RMB 2,629.5 million from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 69.7%[7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at HKD 1.44, leading to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of approximately 7.35X, indicating a valuation advantage compared to peers[8]

Core Insights - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea has officially commenced operations, with the first shipment of over 200,000 tons of iron ore expected to depart from the Maribaya port in November [1][5] - The project is a significant collaboration between China and Guinea, with a total investment exceeding $20 billion, and aims to achieve an annual export capacity of up to 120 million tons of iron ore upon full production [3][4] Project Overview - The Simandou iron ore project is located in southeastern Guinea and is recognized as one of the largest and highest-quality mining projects globally, with proven reserves of 4.4 billion tons and an average iron content of over 65% [3] - The project includes the construction of over 600 kilometers of new multi-purpose railway and associated port facilities, which are essential for the transportation of iron ore [3][4] Key Participants - Major stakeholders in the project include the Guinean government, Winning Consortium, China Baowu Steel Group, Aluminum Corporation of China (Chinalco), and Simfer [3][4] - The project is divided into two main blocks: the northern block (Blocks 1 and 2) led by China Baowu and Winning Consortium, and the southern block (Blocks 3 and 4) managed by Simfer, with each block having an annual production capacity of 60 million tons [3][4] Infrastructure and Development - The project employs "Chinese standards, design, construction, and equipment" to efficiently meet production goals, with various Chinese state-owned enterprises involved in the construction and design processes [4] - The Maribaya port and the railway infrastructure are designed to handle an annual transportation capacity of 120 million tons, facilitating the export of iron ore [4] Economic Impact - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the project could increase Guinea's GDP by over 25%, while also providing significant employment opportunities for the local population [5]

Market Overview - The industrial metal sector experienced a decline of 2.19% on November 14, with Shenhuo Co. leading the drop [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3990.49, down 0.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13216.03, down 1.93% [1] Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the industrial metal sector included: - Guocheng Mining (000688) with a closing price of 25.22, up 3.40% on a trading volume of 589,400 shares and a turnover of 1.508 billion [1] - Minfa Aluminum (002578) closed at 5.00, up 2.67% with a trading volume of 3.1543 million shares and a turnover of 1.621 billion [1] - Major decliners included: - Shenhuo Co. (000933) with a closing price of 25.73, down 4.63% on a trading volume of 601,500 shares [3] - Shengda Resources (000603) closed at 24.57, down 4.51% with a trading volume of 253,700 shares [3] Capital Flow - The industrial metal sector saw a net outflow of 3.963 billion in main funds, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 2.957 billion [5] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Zijin Mining with a main fund net inflow of 132 million, but a net outflow from retail investors of 41.48 million [5] - Hai Liang Co. (002203) had a main fund net inflow of 48.92 million, but also saw a retail net outflow of 41.32 million [5]

Group 1: Industrial Metals - The price of copper is expected to remain elevated due to the suspension of operations at the Grasberg mine, with a projected global copper shortage of approximately 1% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, primarily due to the anticipated resumption of production at Grasberg and Panama mines [2][3] - Aluminum profitability is expected to increase further, with China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization reaching 98%, leading to potential shortages if supply decreases or demand increases [2][3] Group 2: Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, driven by multiple factors including weakening U.S. non-farm data, manageable inflation, and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, which is expected to lower interest rates [3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, with the People's Bank of China having added gold for 12 consecutive months [3] Group 3: Energy Metals - The introduction of a quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to lead to a long-term increase in cobalt prices, with export quotas significantly lower than market expectations [4][5] - The global lithium industry is anticipated to enter a new cycle of prosperity, driven by strong demand from the rapidly growing electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [6] Group 4: Minor Metals - China's dominance in rare earth resources is solidified, with the country controlling approximately 50% of global reserves and 90% of oxide production, leading to a potential increase in prices [7] - Tungsten prices may rise due to recovering overseas demand and the easing of export controls, while antimony prices are rebounding following recent export control relaxations [8][9] Group 5: Uranium - The demand for natural uranium is expected to rise in line with increasing nuclear power generation, with projections indicating that China's nuclear power capacity could become the largest in the world by 2030 [10] Group 6: Recommended Stocks - A selection of companies is recommended for investment across various metals, including copper, aluminum, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals [11]

Industrial Metals - The supply side of industrial metals is experiencing continuous disturbances, with good downstream demand for copper and aluminum, leading to stable price increases and improved corporate profitability [1] - Copper prices are supported by supply tightness, with a projected global copper shortage of approximately 1% in 2026 and 0.5% in 2027, mainly due to the expected full recovery of Grasberg and Panama copper mines [2] - Aluminum profitability is expected to increase further, with China's electrolytic aluminum capacity utilization reaching 98%, indicating a potential shortage if supply decreases or demand increases [2] Precious Metals - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, driven by multiple factors including weak U.S. non-farm data, controlled inflation, and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, which has lowered rates twice recently [3] - Central banks globally, including China, have shown a strong willingness to increase gold reserves, with China having added gold for 12 consecutive months [3] Energy Metals - The introduction of an export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to lead to a long-term increase in cobalt prices, with a potential supply gap of at least 10% in the global cobalt market over the next two years [4] - The lithium industry is anticipated to enter a new growth cycle, driven by strong demand from the rapidly growing domestic new energy vehicle market and significant increases in energy storage battery shipments [5] Minor Metals - The strategic importance of minor metals such as rare earths, tungsten, and antimony is increasing, with prices expected to rise due to policy adjustments and demand recovery [6][8][9] - China's dominance in rare earth resources is significant, controlling about 50% of global resources and 90% of oxide production, with a projected price increase for praseodymium-neodymium oxide [7] Uranium - The demand for uranium is expected to rise with the growth of nuclear power generation, with projections indicating that China's nuclear power generation capacity could become the largest in the world by 2030 [10] - The supply side remains constrained, with minimal new investments in uranium mines, leading to a potential increase in uranium prices [10] Recommended Companies - For copper: Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, Minmetals Resources, China Nonferrous Mining, Jinchuan Group, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Western Mining [11] - For aluminum: China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, Yun Aluminum, Shenhuo Group, Zhongfu Industrial, Tianshan Aluminum [11] - For precious metals: China Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, WanGuo Gold Group, Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources [11] - For energy metals: Zhongjin Resources, Yongxing Materials, Huayou Cobalt [11] - For minor metals and processing: Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous, Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, Huaxi Nonferrous, Bowei Alloy [11]

Core Points - The announcement period is set from November 13, 2025, to November 22, 2025 [2] Group 1 - The public notice is related to a specific regulatory process [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth in the number of industrial enterprises in China, indicating a positive trend in the industrial sector with a year-on-year increase of 3.39% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year [1]. Group 1: Industrial Enterprises - As of January to September 2025, the total number of industrial enterprises in China reached 522,474, an increase of 17,119 enterprises from the same period last year [1]. - The threshold for classifying industrial enterprises has been raised from an annual main business income of 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan since 2011, reflecting a more stringent standard for enterprise classification [1]. Group 2: Market Research - The report titled "2025-2031 China Industrial Cloud Industry Market Deep Assessment and Investment Opportunity Forecast" was published by Zhiyan Consulting, a leading industry consulting firm in China [1]. - Zhiyan Consulting has been deeply engaged in industry research for over a decade, providing comprehensive industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services [1].

数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国工业云行业市场深度评估及投资机会预测报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 上市公司：中国石化（600028），中国石油（601857），中色股份（000758），创新新材（600361）， 中国铝业（601600）康比特（833429），三元股份（600429），北新建材（000786），同方股份 （600100），淳中科技（603516），浩瀚深度（688292），三未信安（688489） 2016-2025年1-9月北京市工业企业数统计图 2025年1-9月，北京市工业企业数（以下数据涉及的工业企业，均为规模以上工业企业，从2011年起， 规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入2000万元）为3085 个，和上年同期相比，减少了19个，同比下降0.61%，占全国 ...