2025年10月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：偏强震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面较抗跌 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 23 日 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,380 | 200 | 200 | 480 | -600 | 280 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,710 | 45 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector [1] Core Insights - The new energy storage industry in China is transitioning from a policy-driven phase to a market-driven phase, with significant growth in installed capacity and supportive government policies [6][15][20] - The installed capacity of new energy storage in China reached 94.91 GW/222 GWh by mid-2025, accounting for over 40% of the global total [25][26] - The report highlights the rapid growth of new energy storage projects globally, with a 62.5% increase in newly installed capacity in 2024 [21][24] Summary by Sections 1. Current Development of China's New Energy Storage Industry - New energy storage, excluding pumped storage, is crucial for building a new power system dominated by renewable energy [13] - The industry is entering a market-driven phase, with policies emphasizing the development of new energy storage [15][16] 2. New Energy Storage Downstream Application Scenarios - The main applications of energy storage in China are categorized into three areas: power source side, grid side, and user side [39][40] - Power source side storage is primarily used in conventional power plants and renewable energy facilities to enhance stability and efficiency [43][44] - Grid side storage provides essential services such as peak shaving and frequency regulation, ensuring the reliability of the power system [48][51] - User side storage focuses on reducing electricity costs and enhancing supply reliability, with applications in commercial and industrial settings [53] 3. Development of New Energy Storage in Henan Province - Henan aims to achieve over 5 million kW of new energy storage capacity by 2025 and over 15 million kW by 2030, with strong government support [9][10] - The province is focusing on grid-side storage and independent storage projects to alleviate renewable energy consumption pressures [9][10] 4. Recommendations for the Development of New Energy Storage Industry in Henan - The report suggests promoting independent storage projects and enhancing price mechanisms to support the growth of the new energy storage sector in Henan [9][10]

Group 1: Key Insights on China's Global Expansion - The core assumption risks include uncertainties in overseas policies and compliance, market perception biases leading to operational risks, exchange rate fluctuations causing currency losses, and supply chain risks in overseas operations[3] - The shift in overseas demand for Chinese manufacturing has moved from cost and capacity advantages to a focus on technology with higher added value, allowing companies to leverage core technological advantages to expand internationally[4] - China's manufacturing value added is projected to increase from 8.6% of the global total in 2004 to 31.6% by 2024, indicating a significant enhancement in global industrial value chain construction capabilities[16] Group 2: Strategic Importance of Going Global - The "going out" strategy is crucial for utilizing technological comparative advantages to expand into global markets and build a community with a shared future for mankind[5] - China's foreign direct investment (FDI) has rapidly increased, with significant growth in investment flows and stock since 2006, reflecting a transition from "bringing in" to "going out"[8] - The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has become a national strategy since 2013, facilitating infrastructure connectivity and economic cooperation with participating countries[41] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Uncertainties in overseas policies, such as geopolitical risks and trade protectionism, may hinder the pace of companies' international expansion[93] - Market perception differences can lead to operational risks if companies misjudge target markets, potentially resulting in economic losses[93] - Exchange rate volatility poses risks of currency losses, impacting corporate profitability during overseas operations[93]

Core Insights - The article highlights the commencement of the full installation phase of the 1GW+600MWh solar storage project in Egypt, which is the largest solar storage project currently under construction in Africa [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project is a collaboration between China Energy Engineering Group, Zhejiang Huadian, and Southwest Institute, indicating strong international cooperation in renewable energy development [1] - The project will install over 2 million high-efficiency monocrystalline solar panels manufactured in China [1] - Located in the southern desert of Egypt, the project covers an area of over 20 square kilometers and includes a 1GW solar power facility, a 600MWh energy storage system, and a 500kV substation [1] Group 2: Impact and Capacity - Once connected to the grid, the project is expected to meet the electricity needs of over 500,000 households [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in new contracts signed by major state-owned construction companies in China, particularly in the "new infrastructure" sector, which includes digital projects, intelligent computing centers, and renewable energy projects [1][2][3] - China Electric Power Construction (China Electric) reported a total of 904.53 billion yuan in new contracts signed from January to September, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.04%, with overseas contracts reaching 213.75 billion yuan, up 21.45% [1][2] - China Electric's strategic emerging industries, such as new energy storage and digital business, have driven contract growth, with 407 pumped storage projects signed, totaling 65.39 billion yuan, a 15.26% increase [1] - China State Construction Engineering Corporation (China State) signed new contracts totaling 3.2936 trillion yuan from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, with infrastructure contracts increasing by 3.9% [3] Group 2 - China Electric's international strategy has shown significant results, with overseas contracts accounting for 23.63% of total contracts, including a notable project in Saudi Arabia worth approximately 11.72 billion yuan [2] - China Metallurgical Group Corporation (China Metallurgical) also reported a double-digit growth in overseas contracts, totaling 669 billion yuan, a 10.1% increase year-on-year [2] - China Energy Engineering Corporation (China Energy) signed three renewable energy engineering contracts in Saudi Arabia, with a total contract value of approximately 19.55 billion yuan [3]

Core Insights - The infrastructure state-owned enterprises in China, including China State Construction, China Power Construction, and China Metallurgical Group, have reported significant growth in new contracts signed for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by digital projects, intelligent computing centers, and new energy initiatives [1][2][3] Group 1: New Contract Performance - China Power Construction reported a total of new contracts amounting to 904.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.04%, with overseas contracts reaching 213.75 billion yuan, up 21.45% [1][2] - China Metallurgical Group achieved a new contract total of 760.67 billion yuan, with overseas contracts growing by 10.1% to 66.90 billion yuan [2] - China State Construction signed new contracts totaling 3,293.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, with infrastructure contracts increasing by 3.9% [3] Group 2: Key Projects - China Power Construction secured 407 pumped storage projects, with a total contract value of 65.39 billion yuan, marking a 15.26% increase [1] - Significant overseas projects for China Power Construction include contracts for solar projects in Saudi Arabia worth approximately 11.72 billion yuan [2] - China State Construction's new contracts include projects related to data centers and artificial intelligence, such as the Guangzhou AI Industrial Park project valued at 2.91 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Strategic Focus - The growth in new contracts is attributed to strategic emerging industries, including new energy storage and digital business initiatives [1][2] - The internationalization strategy of these companies has shown significant results, with a notable increase in overseas contract values [2][3]

10月21日，A股市场震荡反弹。 沪深300今日主力资金净流入77.23亿元，创业板净流入72.92亿元。 | | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪深300 | 创业板 | 科创板 | | 2025-10-21 | 77.23 | 72.92 | -7. 68 | | 2025-10-20 | 7.77 | -7.69 | -21.77 | | 2025-10-17 | -270. 89 | -294. 74 | -25.97 | | 2025-10-16 | -101. 20 | -115. 91 | -11.01 | | 2025-10-15 | 27.77 | -27.27 | -22.98 | | | | 尾盘资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | 2025-10-21 | 1.98 | 7.86 | 3.51 | | 2025-10-20 | 0. 91 | 6. 32 | -2. 49 | | 2025-10-17 | -60. 35 | -55. 86 | -6. 37 | | 2025-10-16 | ...

Core Points - The "Global Sustainable Transport Certification" (GSTC) was launched in Beijing, initiated by China Energy Engineering Group and the China International Transport Innovation and Knowledge Center, focusing on sustainable transport fuel certification [1][2] - The first projects included in the certification trial are the Jilin Songyuan project (green ammonia) and the Inner Mongolia Yigao project (green methanol) [1] Group 1 - The certification system aims to integrate China's sustainable fuel industry development advantages, reduce industry costs, and support the establishment of an international sustainable fuel supply, injection, trading, and pricing center [2] - China Energy Engineering Group has leveraged its core units, such as China Electric Engineering and Hydrogen Energy Company, to support the development of certification documents and a big data platform [2] Group 2 - The Inner Mongolia project utilizes exclusive "co-gasification" technology to produce green methanol from waste materials, currently achieving an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons, with plans to increase to 300,000 tons by 2030 [1] - The Jilin Songyuan project employs advanced technologies to address the challenges of renewable energy volatility and chemical production stability, recognized as a national green low-carbon technology innovation project [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Energy Construction Co., Ltd. (China Energy) has shown a positive stock performance with a year-to-date increase of 11.51% and a market capitalization of 104.645 billion yuan as of October 21 [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, China Energy reported a revenue of 212.091 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.18%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.802 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.72% [3]. Stock Market Activity - On October 21, China Energy's stock price rose by 2.03% to 2.51 yuan per share, with a trading volume of 7.23 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.90% [1]. - The company has seen significant net inflows of capital, with a net inflow of 68.3931 million yuan from main funds and a large single purchase of 166.7 million yuan, accounting for 23.14% of total trading [1]. Shareholder Structure - As of June 30, 2025, China Energy had 335,000 shareholders, a decrease of 2.54% from the previous period [3]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 856 million shares, an increase of 173 million shares from the previous period [4]. Business Segments - China Energy operates through five main business departments: Surveying, Design and Consulting; Engineering Construction; Equipment Manufacturing; Civil Explosives and Cement Production; and Investment and Other Businesses. The primary revenue sources are Engineering Construction (81.18%), Industrial Manufacturing (7.42%), and Investment Operations (6.80%) [2].

Core Insights - The forum focused on the transformation of financial management in the era of artificial intelligence, emphasizing the shift from traditional accounting to value creation and proactive risk management [1][2]. Group 1: Forum Overview - The "2025 Autumn Forum" was successfully held in Beijing, organized by the Chinese Institute of Certified Public Accountants, with a theme centered on "Deep Language Models (DeepSeek) and Penetrative Financial Management" [1]. - Keynote speeches highlighted the importance of deep learning models in reshaping financial management practices across various sectors, including state-owned enterprises and financial institutions [2][3]. Group 2: Key Presentations - Experts from different fields shared insights on the application of technology in financial risk management, with a focus on proactive measures rather than mere compliance [3][4]. - The presentations included practical applications of DeepSeek in financial scenarios such as intelligent reconciliation, risk warning, and cash flow forecasting [3][4]. Group 3: Roundtable Discussion - A roundtable discussion addressed the challenges and opportunities in AI-driven financial management, emphasizing the need for high-quality data and skilled professionals [5][6]. - Participants discussed the significance of contract-based cash flow management in enhancing overall funding efficiency within organizations [6]. Group 4: Future Directions - The forum concluded with a call for continued collaboration among industry peers to leverage deep learning technologies for greater value creation in financial management [7]. - Ningbo Bank expressed its commitment to fostering partnerships and developing a new ecosystem for intelligent finance in the era of big models [7].