2月9日【港股Podcast】恆指、泡泡瑪特 、中芯國際 、紫金礦業、美團、匯豐控股 1、恆生指數：多空觀點交織下的區間博弈 Simon：今日（9日）市場對恆指後市走勢呈現出典型的博弈格局。部分投資者判斷指數將在26000至27000點區間維持震盪整理，並據此部署收回價設在 25300點的牛證產品，以期在震盪市中獲取收益。與此同時，持謹慎態度的投資者則選擇持有熊證過夜，其策略基於對市場可能面臨技術性調整的預判，預 期指數或低開約200點，並注意到26300點下方仍聚集較多未平倉牛證，這部分倉位可能在未來波動中形成壓力。 從全日報收情況看，恆生指數今日表現較為積極，收盤成功收復27000點整數關口，報27027點。從技術結構觀察，收盤價不僅重回關鍵心理位，亦站穩於日 線圖保利加通道中軌上方。市場成交額較上周五略有回升，但相較於前期活躍階段仍顯溫和，顯示資金追漲意願暫未全面復蘇。 當前技術信號匯總顯示市場短期情緒偏謹慎，"賣出"信號數量以10比4領先於"買入"信號。指數短期關鍵支撐區域位於26500點附近，主要阻力則位於27500 點一帶，構成約500點的核心震盪區間。若後市跌破26500點支撐，下一支撐參考位下 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a rebound driven by both internal and external factors, but the sustainability of this rebound is questioned due to a lack of significant volume increase and a continuous decline in financing balance [3][12] - The market is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend in the last week before the Spring Festival, with recommendations to increase positions on dips [3][14] Index Performance - Major indices saw significant gains: Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.41% to 4123.09 points, ChiNext Index increased by 2.98% to 3332.77 points, and Shenzhen Component Index climbed by 2.17% [4] - The total trading volume reached 2.27 trillion yuan, with a notable increase in daily trading volume [4][12] Sector Performance - Technology and resource stocks led the market rally, with sectors such as communication, electronics, and machinery showing strong performance [8][12] - The CPO concept, AI applications, and optical electronic devices saw substantial gains, indicating a broad-based sectoral rally [6][8] Individual Stock Highlights - Notable individual stock performances included: - Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) up by 4.81% to 565.99 yuan - Xinyi Sheng (300502) up by 7.17% to 390.15 yuan - Tianfu Communication (300394) surged by 17.76% to 297.90 yuan [5][6] - The media sector also saw a surge, with several stocks hitting the daily limit up, reflecting positive sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [9][12] Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest a balanced allocation between growth and resource sectors, focusing on AI applications, semiconductor, and industrial metals, while also considering undervalued financial stocks [16] - The recommendation is to avoid chasing high prices and to utilize market fluctuations for buying opportunities, particularly in anticipation of increased capital inflow post-Spring Festival [16][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Non-ferrous Metals ETF Fund (516650), which opened with a gain of 1.90% at 2.145 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the Non-ferrous Metals ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and Huayou Cobalt, which also experienced gains [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Sub-Industry Non-ferrous Metals Theme Index return, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., with a return of 110.83% since its inception on June 9, 2021, and a 4.15% return over the past month [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has raised its gold production target for the next three years, aiming to increase its gold output to 130-140 tons by 2028, positioning itself among the top three globally in gold production [1][11]. Production Plans - The company originally set a gold production target of 100-110 tons for 2028, but due to recent acquisitions of gold mining assets, it is likely to achieve an annual output of 100 tons by 2026, two years ahead of schedule [1][11]. - The new target requires an increase of 40-50 tons in gold production over the next three years, representing a 50% growth compared to the 2025 baseline [1][11]. Comparison with Competitors - Currently, the largest gold producer globally is Newmont Corporation, with a projected output of over 180 tons in 2025. Zijin Mining has at least 50% room for improvement to match Newmont's production levels [2]. - The company aims to surpass Agnico Eagle and Barrick Gold, which are currently ranked second and third in gold production [2][14]. Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's revenue grew by approximately 28%, while its total profit surged by around 167%, indicating that the growth in the gold segment has significantly outpaced overall revenue growth [4]. - In 2022, Zijin Mining's copper production was 910,000 tons, expected to rise to 1.09 million tons by 2025, while gold production is projected to increase from 56 tons to 90 tons, marking a 61% growth [5]. Market Position - As of February 9, 2026, Zijin Mining's market capitalization reached a peak of 1.1 trillion yuan, with the overall market value of the "Zijin system" exceeding 1.8 trillion yuan [9]. - The company has improved its global ranking in gold production from approximately ninth place in 2022 to fifth place by 2025 [9]. Strategic Focus - The company plans to continue focusing on its gold segment, with a production target of 130-140 tons by 2028, which is a 50% increase from the 2025 output [11][14]. - Zijin Mining is also accelerating the development of key projects in Australia, Colombia, Suriname, Ghana, and Kazakhstan to support its production goals [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The recent influx of southbound capital into the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the technology sector, indicates a potential bottoming out despite ongoing market adjustments [1][5]. Group 1: Capital Inflow Trends - Southbound capital has seen a significant net inflow of 637 billion HKD over seven trading days, with notable daily net purchases exceeding 100 billion HKD [1][2]. - The primary sectors attracting this capital include information technology (71.24 billion HKD), financial services (60.84 billion HKD), non-essential consumer goods (51.41 billion HKD), and real estate (41.46 billion HKD) [2]. - Major stocks receiving substantial inflows include Tencent Holdings and Xiaomi Group, with net purchases of 60.77 billion HKD and 31.05 billion HKD, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Analysts suggest that the current valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is approximately 22.13 times earnings, which is at a historical low of 24.31% [6]. - Despite the influx of southbound capital, there remains a prevailing cautious sentiment in the market, as evidenced by a net outflow of 18.87 billion HKD on February 9 [5][6]. - The overall market is perceived to be in a deep value zone, with some analysts indicating that the market requires additional conditions to confirm a bottom [6][7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are focusing on a balanced approach, emphasizing both growth and value sectors, particularly in technology and high-dividend assets [7][8]. - Analysts recommend a selective investment strategy, highlighting opportunities in AI-related sectors, high-quality dividend stocks, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8]. - The importance of stock selection is increasing, with suggestions to adopt a phased investment approach while monitoring policy changes and global liquidity [8].

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average is projected to reach 100,000 points by January 2029, as stated by Trump, with the index recently surpassing 50,000 points for the first time [1] - The Hong Kong stock market rebounded significantly, closing up 1.76%, while the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI indices rose by 3.89% and 4.10%, respectively [1] - The Japanese ruling coalition secured a majority in the recent elections, with promises to stimulate the economy, leading to a surge in the Japanese stock market [1] Gold and Mining Stocks - Gold stocks continued to rebound, with the WanGuo Gold Group rising over 8% [2] - Zijin Mining announced a three-year production plan aiming to rank among the top three globally in copper and gold production by 2028, resulting in a stock increase of over 5% [2] AI and Technology Sector - Major tech companies including Meta, Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are expected to have a combined capital expenditure of $660 billion this year [3] - Nvidia is anticipated to report strong earnings, with Goldman Sachs raising its price target to $250, indicating a potential 35% upside from last week's closing price [2][3] Renewable Energy and Power Generation - North America is shifting investments in electricity generation from gas turbines to gas internal combustion engines and SOFCs, with stocks like Eagle Precision and Dongfang Electric seeing significant gains [4] - Dongfang Electric announced the commissioning of Ethiopia's largest wind power project, contributing to a stock increase of over 14% [4] AI Applications and Content Creation - ByteDance launched the Seedance 2.0 video generation model, which can create high-quality videos in 60 seconds, positively impacting related stocks like IP reserve holder Yuedong Group, which rose nearly 10% [5] - The copyright technology service provider for short dramas, Fubo Group, also saw a stock increase of over 7% [5] Real Estate Sector - Major real estate companies are undergoing organizational restructuring to adapt to market conditions, with firms like China Overseas Development and China Resources Land implementing significant changes [8] - These strategic adjustments are expected to enhance performance and improve valuations in the sector [8] Entertainment Sector - Cat's Eye Entertainment reported that the pre-sale box office for the 2026 Spring Festival exceeded 60 million yuan, with expectations for strong performance in upcoming films [9] - The company is heavily involved in the production and promotion of major films, which is likely to boost its revenue [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a phase of adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the technology sector, a significant influx of "hot money" from southbound capital has been observed, indicating potential bottom-fishing opportunities in the market [1][4]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Inflow - Southbound capital has seen a continuous net inflow of 637 billion HKD over seven trading days, with notable single-day net purchases exceeding 100 billion HKD on multiple occasions [1][4]. - The inflow is characterized by a "buying on dips" strategy, particularly during the accelerated decline of the Hang Seng Technology Index [4]. - The top sectors attracting southbound capital include Information Technology (71.24 billion HKD), Financials (60.84 billion HKD), Consumer Discretionary (51.41 billion HKD), and Real Estate (41.46 billion HKD) [4]. Group 2: ETF and Institutional Investment - Significant net inflows have also been recorded in the cross-border ETF sector, with 113 billion HKD into the Hang Seng Technology ETF and 28.1 billion HKD into the Hang Seng Internet Technology ETF [5]. - The total scale of ETFs directed towards the Hong Kong market has expanded to 423.24 billion HKD, with notable contributions from both southbound and QDII ETFs [5]. - The influx is primarily driven by long-term institutional funds, such as public offerings and insurance, utilizing ETF tools for accelerated positioning [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Valuation - Despite the influx of southbound capital, market sentiment remains cautious, with a notable shift to net outflows of 18.87 billion HKD on February 9, indicating ongoing market divergence [8]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently valued at approximately 22.13 times earnings, representing a historical low of 24.31% [9]. - Analysts suggest that while the market is in a deep value zone, confirmation of a market bottom requires additional conditions [10]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies are recommended to focus on a balanced approach, emphasizing both growth and value sectors [12]. - Key areas of interest include AI-related industries, high-dividend stocks, and sectors benefiting from supply-demand dynamics in metals [12]. - The current low valuation of Hong Kong stocks presents an opportunity for investment, particularly in high-quality assets and new productivity sectors [12].

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has raised its gold production target for 2026-2028 to 130-140 tons, aiming to rank among the top three globally in gold production by 2028, up from the previous target of 100-110 tons, with a potential to achieve the 100-ton mark by 2026 due to recent acquisitions [1][2]. Production Planning - The company plans to increase its gold production by 40-50 tons over the next three years, representing a 50% growth compared to the 2025 baseline [1]. - The growth rate for gold production is significantly higher than that of other industrial metals like copper, lead, and zinc [1][9]. Financial Performance - Zijin Mining's revenue grew by approximately 28%, while its total profit surged by around 167%, indicating that the gold segment has been a major driver of profitability [4]. - In 2022, the company's copper production was 910,000 tons, projected to grow to 1,090,000 tons by 2025, a 20% increase, while gold production is expected to rise from 56 tons to 90 tons, a 61% increase [5]. Market Position - As of 2025, Zijin Mining's gold production is expected to be significantly higher than its closest competitor, Shandong Gold, and it has moved up in global rankings from 9th to 5th in gold production [7]. - The company aims to enhance its market position further, with a focus on gold and copper, which are expected to enter the top three globally by 2028 [10]. Strategic Focus - Zijin Mining's strategic focus has shifted towards its gold segment, which has become a core growth driver, as evidenced by its increased production targets and the prioritization of gold over copper in its production planning [4][9]. - The company has announced significant acquisitions, including a recent deal worth 28 billion yuan for gold assets in Africa, which is expected to contribute approximately 12 tons of gold production by 2025 [12].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880), which opened with a gain of 2.06% at 2.233 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (2.14%), Northern Rare Earth (2.97%), and Huayou Cobalt (1.49%) [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the National Index of Nonferrous Metals Industry, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 118.94% since its inception on March 8, 2021, and a 5.03% return over the past month [1]

2026 年 02 月 09 日 信任命 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 价格波动较大，向好趋势不 金属&新材料行业周报 20260202-20260206 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 波段人分出品 若研究报 申万宏源研究微信服务号 o 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 1.27%，深证成指下跌 2.11%，沪深 300 下跌 1.33%，有色金属（申 万 指数下跌 8.51%，跑输沪深 300 指数 7.18 个百分点，2) 分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 17.38%，铝下跌 6.24%，能源金属下跌 3.59%，小金属下跌 3.20%，铜下跌 9. ...