Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets experienced a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points after 34 trading days, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment towards the securities industry [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 10:30 AM, the broker ETF (159842) increased by 1.39%, with notable gains in individual stocks such as Huayin Securities rising over 4%, GF Securities over 3%, and Huatai Securities over 2% [1] - Major brokerages like China Galaxy, Orient Securities, and others also saw increases exceeding 1% [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - Open Source Securities' report highlights that regulatory policies are entering a "positive" cycle, suggesting that investment banking, public funds, and overseas business will likely support the profitability of the securities industry through 2026 [1] - The current valuation and institutional holdings in the brokerage sector remain low, with the sector experiencing overall stagnation over the past year, presenting a favorable opportunity for investment at the beginning of the year [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Guotai Junan Securities recommends focusing on undervalued brokerages that may experience a rebound during the spring market rally, particularly those with significant discrepancies between valuation and performance [1] - The broker ETF (159842) closely tracks the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, with its top ten holdings including leading brokerages such as CITIC Securities and Orient Securities [1] Group 4: Cost Efficiency - The current management fee rate for the broker ETF is only 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it one of the lowest fee ETFs tracking the CSI All Share Securities Company Index, effectively reducing the holding costs for investors [1]

Core Insights - In 2025, a total of 116 companies were listed on the A-share market, representing a 16% increase from 100 companies in the same period last year [1] - The net fundraising amount for these 116 newly listed companies reached 1220.25 billion yuan, a significant increase of 104.25% compared to 597.43 billion yuan in the previous year [1] - The total fees charged by IPO intermediaries for these companies amounted to 91.56 billion yuan, with underwriting and sponsorship fees accounting for 67.04 billion yuan, legal fees for 8.21 billion yuan, and audit fees for 16.31 billion yuan [1] Segment Analysis Underwriting and Sponsorship Fees - The total underwriting and sponsorship fees by segment are ranked as follows: Sci-Tech Innovation Board, Shanghai Main Board, ChiNext, Shenzhen Main Board, and Beijing Stock Exchange [2] - The average underwriting fee is highest in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 11,337.61 thousand yuan, while the lowest is in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 2,222.30 thousand yuan [5][6] - The total underwriting fees are led by CITIC Securities with 12.44 billion yuan from 15 deals, followed by Guotai Junan and CITIC Jinshi with 9.96 billion yuan and 8.82 billion yuan, respectively [8][10] Legal Fees - The top three law firms by total fees are Shanghai Jintiancheng, Beijing Zhonglun, and Zhejiang Tiance, with total fees of 1.14 billion yuan, 1.05 billion yuan, and 0.57 billion yuan, respectively [11] - The average legal fee is highest in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 832.01 thousand yuan, while the lowest is in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 364.62 thousand yuan [5] Audit Fees - The leading audit firms by total fees are Rongcheng, Tianjian, and Lixin, with total fees of 4.17 billion yuan, 2.86 billion yuan, and 2.19 billion yuan, respectively [12][14] - The average audit fee is highest in the Shanghai Main Board at 1,851.80 thousand yuan, while the lowest is in the Beijing Stock Exchange at 632.39 thousand yuan [6] Overall Fee Structure - The total fees for intermediaries in the IPO process are distributed as follows: underwriting fees (67.04 billion yuan), legal fees (8.21 billion yuan), and audit fees (16.31 billion yuan) [1][4] - The average fees across segments indicate that the Sci-Tech Innovation Board commands the highest fees overall, while the Beijing Stock Exchange has the lowest average fees [5][6]

Market Performance - In 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index returned to the 4000-point mark for the first time in ten years, reflecting a shift in market confidence from "repair" to "surge" [4] - The total market capitalization of A-shares exceeded 118 trillion yuan, marking a historic high, with a cumulative trading volume of 42.021 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 62.64% compared to 2024 [4][5] Institutional Reforms - The "1+6" reform on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board was implemented, reopening the listing channel for unprofitable companies, enhancing the market's inclusiveness and efficiency [6] - New merger and acquisition regulations under the "2+5+5" framework were introduced, stimulating market activity and allowing for a more flexible review process, resulting in a 1.3 times increase in disclosed asset restructuring projects compared to the previous year [7] Technology Sector Growth - The launch of DeepSeek-R1 ignited interest in the AI sector, with related companies experiencing significant capital inflow, indicating a shift in valuation logic towards research and development potential [8][9] - The rise of technology stocks was underscored by the performance of companies like Cambrian, which surpassed Kweichow Moutai to become the new "king" of A-shares, reflecting a broader market trend towards hard technology investments [9][11] IPO and Fundraising Trends - The year saw a record number of IPOs in the "Two Innovation Boards" (Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Growth Enterprise Market), with 49 IPOs raising 61.912 billion yuan, accounting for 47.3% of total market IPO financing [12] - The public fund industry underwent reforms aimed at enhancing investor returns, with total net assets reaching 37.02 trillion yuan, marking a shift from a focus on scale to one on returns [14] Cash Dividends and Corporate Governance - A-share companies set a new record for cash dividends, totaling 2.63 trillion yuan, with 37 companies distributing over 10 billion yuan, indicating a trend towards improved shareholder returns [15][16] - Regulatory measures against financial fraud were intensified, with over 17 cases investigated and a significant increase in penalties, reinforcing market integrity and investor confidence [16] Industry Consolidation - The securities industry experienced a wave of consolidation, with major mergers such as Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, enhancing the competitive landscape and service capabilities of the sector [13]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The derivatives business of securities firms has experienced rapid growth, with key factors being changes in customer demand and regulatory policies. From 2018 to 2022, the nominal principal of the over-the-counter derivatives business increased from 346.7 billion to 2,086.8 billion, achieving a CAGR of 57% [6][7][8]. - The report emphasizes that the derivatives business will be a critical factor in differentiating the profitability of securities firms as their proprietary trading models evolve. Firms that can leverage derivatives for stable growth will have a competitive edge [6][21][34]. - The regulatory environment for derivatives is becoming more standardized, and the report anticipates steady growth in this sector, particularly for leading firms with strong customer bases and competitive advantages [6][36][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Historical Development and Key Factors - The derivatives business has undergone significant growth from 2018 to 2022, with the nominal principal increasing significantly across the industry [7][8]. - Key factors influencing this growth include changes in customer demand and the gradual improvement of regulatory policies [10][11]. 2. Evolution of Proprietary Trading Models - The derivatives business is expected to provide growth certainty, which will be crucial for differentiating profitability among securities firms [21][31]. - The report highlights that the derivatives business benefits from market activity and exhibits strong economies of scale, making it a stable revenue source [21][24][27]. 3. Regulatory Developments and Future Outlook - The regulatory framework for derivatives is becoming more structured, with a focus on promoting steady growth in the sector [36][37]. - The report expresses optimism about the long-term development potential of leading firms in the derivatives market, particularly as regulatory conditions improve [36][37].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the market is expected to experience a震荡向上 (upward fluctuation) trend at the beginning of the year, driven by factors such as improved investor sentiment and liquidity conditions [2][3][4] - The anticipated market performance in 2025 is positioned as the third-best in the last decade and sixth-best in the last twenty years, indicating a significant structural bull market [2] - The balance between external and internal demand is highlighted as a key factor for 2026, with expectations of policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [2][3] Group 2 - The spring market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by improved PMI data, abundant micro liquidity, and positive policy signals [4][6] - The market is likely to see a "开门红" (opening red) at the start of the year, with a strong performance from sectors such as technology, non-bank financials, and consumer goods [3][7] - The focus on new growth areas such as AI, energy storage, and solid-state batteries is emphasized, with a shift in demand patterns away from traditional sectors [3][10] Group 3 - The investment sentiment is high, with a strong supply of funds and supportive economic data, indicating a favorable environment for the spring market [5][6] - The potential for a "牛市" (bull market) in 2026 is reinforced by multiple positive factors, including macroeconomic policy support and a recovery in corporate earnings [9][12] - Recommendations for sector allocation include emerging growth themes and cyclical opportunities, particularly in AI, robotics, and renewable energy [10][12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Zhenqu Technology has submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan as joint sponsors. The company focuses on electric vehicle (EV) control solutions and has developed a layered solution set that includes power modules, motor controllers, and power bricks, allowing customers to choose different levels of system integration [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Zhenqu Technology pioneered the concept of "power brick" and achieved mass production of the main drive power brick in 2021, significantly simplifying the assembly of control systems, enhancing platform reusability, and shortening development cycles [1] - The company has expanded its offerings to low-power controllers and domain controllers in the power domain and chassis domain [1] Group 2: Market Position and Achievements - As of September 30, 2025, the company has secured 50 design wins from 13 OEMs, with solutions applied to 82 vehicle models, 54 of which have entered mass production [1] - According to Frost & Sullivan, the company's rankings in the Chinese market by installation volume are as follows: - Motor controllers ranked 11th in 2024 and 8th in the first nine months of 2025 - Dual motor controllers ranked 3rd in the first nine months of 2025 - Main drive power bricks ranked 1st in 2024 and 2nd in the first nine months of 2025 - Power bricks installed in dual motor controllers ranked 1st in the first nine months of 2025 - Power modules ranked 8th in 2024 and 7th in the first nine months of 2025 [1] Group 3: Business Expansion - The company has leveraged its core technology to expand its business into emerging fields such as electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOL) and embodied intelligence [1]

Core Insights - The capital market showed a positive trend in 2025, with active trading reflected in the significant increase in transaction volume on the Longhu list, reaching 3.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of over 40% [1][2] - The competition among brokerage firms intensified, with notable changes in the rankings of the top 100 brokerage departments, highlighting the emergence of several "dark horse" firms [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In 2025, a total of 7,029 brokerage departments appeared on the Longhu list 123,900 times, with a total transaction volume of 3.34 trillion yuan, marking a 42.6% increase year-on-year [2] - The top 100 brokerage departments accounted for 2.26 trillion yuan of the total transaction volume, representing 67.66% of the market share, indicating a strong head effect [2] Group 2: Top Brokerage Departments - The "Lhasa team" under Dongfang Caifu Securities maintained a strong performance, occupying three of the top ten positions, with the Lhasa Tuanjie Road No. 1 Securities Department leading with a transaction volume of 127.87 billion yuan [2] - New entrants to the top ten include Kaiyuan Securities' Xi'an Xidajie Securities Department, which rose from 27th place in 2024 to 3rd in 2025, and several other firms that significantly improved their rankings [2][3] Group 3: Emerging Firms and Foreign Participation - Several "dark horse" brokerage departments made significant leaps in rankings, such as Guotai Junan's Shanghai Jing'an District New Zha Road Securities Department, which rose from 559th to 14th place [3] - The presence of foreign brokerage firms is increasing, with six foreign brokerage departments making it into the top 50, including UBS and Goldman Sachs, showcasing their growing influence in the market [4] Group 4: Industry Trends - The competition in brokerage business has intensified, reflecting differences in client scale, market share, and overall strength among various firms, as well as the strategic focus on regional development by branch offices [5] - The Longhu list serves as an important indicator of market sentiment and hotspots, with sectors like general equipment, chemical products, computer software, automotive, and semiconductors attracting significant investment [6]

Group 1: Capital Market Reforms - The implementation of key regulations such as the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Expenses for Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds" and the revised "Implementation Regulations for the Commitment System of Securities and Futures Administrative Law Enforcement Parties" signals a strong commitment to deepening capital market reforms in 2026 [1] - Market participants expect comprehensive reforms to accelerate, focusing on enhancing support for new productive forces, promoting long-term investments, and strengthening investor protection mechanisms [1] Group 2: Support for Technological Innovation - Capital market reforms will focus on enhancing inclusivity and support for technology innovation enterprises, improving the compatibility between capital market functions and technological development [2] - Recommendations include refining mechanisms for identifying technology enterprises and creating green channels for IPOs, particularly for "hard technology" companies [2] - The development of S-fund markets and diversified exit paths is essential to invigorate the market for mergers and acquisitions, encouraging leading companies to integrate with tech firms [2] Group 3: Regional Equity Markets - The establishment of dedicated segments for "specialized, refined, and innovative" enterprises is suggested, along with creating pathways for these companies to transition to larger markets like the New Third Board and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3] Group 4: Investment and Financing Reforms - Comprehensive reforms in investment and financing are expected to achieve dynamic balance and stable development in the market [4] - Future efforts will include improving mechanisms for identifying and supporting quality enterprises, as well as enhancing the long-term assessment of various funds to increase their participation in the A-share market [4] - Regulatory measures such as the reform of the ChiNext board and optimization of the North Exchange's systems are anticipated to facilitate a new phase of investment and financing balance [4] Group 5: Investor Protection - Recent policy initiatives indicate a significant enhancement in the protection of investors' legal rights, which is crucial for maintaining market fairness and boosting long-term confidence among participants [5] - The proposed "Regulations on the Supervision and Management of Listed Companies" includes specific measures for investor protection during voluntary delistings, aiming to prevent companies from evading delisting responsibilities [6] - A comprehensive approach to investor relief, including various legal remedies and regulatory cooperation, is recommended to safeguard the rights of investors, especially small and medium-sized ones [6]

● 本报记者 昝秀丽 《公开募集证券投资基金销售费用管理规定》1月1日起正式施行、修改后的《证券期货行政执法当事人 承诺制度实施规定》2月1日起施行、上市公司董秘监管规则公开征求意见……2026年开年，一系列资本 市场关键制度持续升级，释放出深化改革的强烈信号。 市场人士预期，2026年资本市场改革将进一步全面深化，包括服务发展新质生产力、助力长钱长投、全 链条织密投保"安全网"等在内的一系列改革有望加快推进。 助力企业向"新"而行 赋能新质生产力，支撑科技强国战略，是2026年资本市场改革的着力点之一。 市场人士认为，下阶段，资本市场改革应聚焦提升对科技创新企业的包容性和支持力度，增强资本市场 基础功能与科技产业发展的适配性，完善投融资市场生态，以更好促进科技、产业与资本的良性循环。 提升资本市场制度的包容度与吸引力是关键一环。粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒建议，完 善科创企业精准识别机制，丰富评价维度，为突破关键核心技术的"硬科技"企业开辟IPO绿色通道。特 别是，要发挥出科创板改革"试验田"的作用，优化"科创成长层"各项制度，把IPO"预先审阅机制"、存 量股"询价转让制度"等推广向更多板块，同 ...

Geopolitical Risks - The U.S. military action against Venezuela is expected to cause significant fluctuations in international oil prices, with short-term production and exports being impacted, leading to a potential rise in oil prices[1] - If the U.S. invests in Venezuelan oil, it may lead to a downward shift in the price equilibrium in the medium to long term[1] Economic Impact - Short-term oil price increases may exacerbate inflation expectations in the U.S., potentially affecting the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut schedule[1] - The U.S. refinery utilization rate slightly increased to 94.7% in the week of December 26, 2025, compared to 94.6% the previous week[9] Market Performance - Emerging market stock indices rose by 2.27%, while developed market indices fell, with the S&P 500 down by 1.03%[8] - Commodity prices mostly declined, with the S&P-Goldman Commodity Index down by 0.37% and COMEX copper down by 2.62%[8] Inflation and Interest Rates - The 10-year inflation expectation in the U.S. rose by 3 basis points to 1.94% as of January 2, 2026[15] - The Federal Reserve is expected to be cautious with interest rate cuts due to geopolitical tensions affecting inflation[25] European Economic Indicators - Germany's manufacturing PMI decreased to 47.0%, while France and the UK saw increases to 50.7% and 50.6%, respectively[19] - Eurozone bond yields fell, with the 1-year yield decreasing from 2.0269% to 2.0237%[19]