农林畜产品分册 ——2026 年市场回顾与 2025 年展望 格林大华期货研究院 刘锦 投资咨询号：Z0011862 从业资格号： F0276812 摘要 2026 年度报告中国期货期权市场年度报告 油脂：沉舟侧畔千帆过 病树前头万木春 粕类：远山初见疑无路 曲径徐行渐有村 全球宏观关注要点，2025 年中美之间先后经历了 5 轮经贸争端，在激烈的对抗中， 中方表现坚定，维护自身利益，最终美方在稀土受制和大豆出口腰斩的背景下，在第 五轮经贸谈判中做出主动取消芬太尼为首的关税行动，中方开始采购美豆。全球大豆 贸易导向从"供给定价"转为"需求定价"。2026 年对全球经济的展望，1、从经济 周期视角，2026 年一季度美国经济大概率见顶。美国消费仍是全球经济的原动力，美 国经济的下行将对全球经济产生外溢风险。2026 年夏季美国经济出现经济金融危机的 1 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年全年，油脂板块整体走势振荡偏强，各品种强弱时间上略有分化。棕榈油先抑 后扬，全年波幅最大；菜籽油领涨植物油板块；豆油全年是区间振荡为主。棕榈方面： 2025 年 1-5 月，印尼 B40 政策不明朗，产量增加，出口降 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the environmental and public utility sector [7] Core Insights - The report highlights significant price increases for second and third-generation biodiesel (HVO and SAF) in 2025, with HVO reaching a peak of $2853.38 per ton and SAF at $2900.95 per ton, reflecting increases of 69.2% and 69.1% from their lowest points respectively [1][17] - The demand for SAF is driven by the EU's ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation, which mandates a gradual increase in SAF content in aviation fuel, leading to an estimated demand increase of approximately 1.4 million tons in 2025 [1][19] - The report emphasizes the scarcity of used cooking oil (UCO) as a raw material for HVO and SAF, suggesting that companies with waste oil resources and production capacity should be closely monitored [3][39] Summary by Sections 1. Special Research - The report discusses the upward trend in biodiesel prices due to downstream demand, particularly for SAF and HVO, with significant price increases observed in 2025 [1][17] - It notes that multiple countries are implementing policies to increase biodiesel blending ratios, with global biodiesel consumption expected to exceed 75.77 million tons by 2030 [2][25] - UCO is identified as a critical raw material with limited supply, highlighting the need to focus on companies that can efficiently utilize waste oil resources [3][39] 2. Market Review - The report provides a market performance overview, indicating that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.06% from December 26 to January 9, with various sector performances detailed [4][42] 3. Industry Dynamics - The report outlines recent legislative progress in the EU regarding renewable energy, particularly the RED III directive, which aims to increase the share of renewable energy in the EU's energy consumption to 42.5% by 2030 [19][20] - It highlights the growing demand for advanced biofuels and the expected increase in biodiesel consumption in developing countries, which may take over as the main growth area for biofuels [2][23] 4. Investment Portfolio and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong capabilities in waste oil production and technology, such as Shanhigh Environmental, Longkun Technology, and Zhuoyue New Energy, due to the anticipated growth in SAF and HVO demand [3][39]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Views - The sulfur price is experiencing fluctuations due to supply-demand dynamics, with a short-term supply guarantee not fundamentally altering the long-term tight resource situation. The expected global sulfur supply-demand gap for 2026 is projected to be -5.13 million tons, indicating a strategic revaluation of sulfur resources in the long term [2][16] - The recent restructuring between Sinopec and China Aviation Oil is expected to enhance the integration of oil refining and distribution, potentially accelerating the commercial use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in China [3][7] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights of the Week - The market is witnessing a rebound in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching $63.05 per barrel, reflecting a 3.7% increase. This is driven by geopolitical tensions affecting supply expectations [14] - The chemical sector is gaining attention due to a better-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) recovery, indicating potential for upward valuation in the sector [15] 2. Chemical Sector Performance - The basic chemical industry index increased by 3.7% in the week, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext [21] - Among 26 sub-sectors, 25 experienced gains, with the top performers being modified plastics (+9.5%) and inorganic salts (+7.2%) [26] 3. Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - In the basic chemical sector, 373 out of 424 stocks rose, with notable gainers including Prit (42.6%) and Sanfu (32.3%). Conversely, stocks like Evergrande High-Tech saw declines of 13.1% [28][29] 4. Investment Focus Areas - The report suggests focusing on four main investment lines: 1. Upstream resource assets with strong profit certainty, particularly in phosphorus and sulfur [16] 2. Supply-side optimization under "anti-involution" policies, targeting sectors with high concentration and price elasticity [17] 3. Low-valued leading stocks in the sector, as capital expenditure cycles slow down [18] 4. New productivity investments aligned with green energy and advanced materials [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the oil and petrochemical industry [2][10]. Core Insights - The restructuring of Sinopec and China National Aviation Fuel (CNAF) is expected to enhance the resilience of China's aviation fuel supply chain [4][11]. - The merger will allow for complementary advantages in the production, sales, and refueling of aviation fuel, thereby increasing the international competitiveness of China's aviation fuel industry [4][12]. - The restructuring is also anticipated to promote the application of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) domestically [4][13]. Summary by Sections Restructuring Impact - The merger between Sinopec and CNAF, approved by the State Council, is set to take place on January 8, 2026 [3]. - Sinopec is a leading producer of aviation kerosene in China, with a projected consumption of approximately 38 million tons for the year, and a forecasted increase to 75 million tons by 2040, representing over 100% growth [5]. Competitive Landscape - CNAF is the largest aviation fuel supplier in Asia, providing services to 258 transport airports and 454 general airports in China, and supporting 585 global airline customers [11]. - The merger will streamline operations, reduce supply costs, and enhance energy security for China's aviation sector [11]. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) - Sinopec has been a pioneer in SAF production, with significant advancements in technology and production capacity since 2011 [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Civil Aviation Administration of China have initiated pilot applications for SAF, with plans for regular use starting in March 2025 [13][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with advantages in aviation kerosene production, specifically China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and companies involved in biodiesel and SAF, such as Zhenhua Energy [4][16].

证券之星消息，1月9日化学制品板块较上一交易日上涨0.27%，卓越新能领涨。当日上证指数报收于 4120.43，上涨0.92%。深证成指报收于14120.15，上涨1.15%。化学制品板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 002971 | 和远气体 | 32.23 | -4.16% | 21.86万 | 6.95 | | 688089 | 嘉必优 | 20.45 | -3.31% | 13.37万 | 2.74亿 | | 600230 | 沧州大化 | 15.20 | -3.12% | 19.78万 | 3.03亿 | | 301373 | 凌晴科技 | 34.37 | -3.05% | 4.04万 | 1.39亿 | | 003002 | 壶化股份 | 30.94 | -2.77% | 11.17万 | 3.44Z | | 688350 | 富翁科技 | 27.15 | -2.72% | 4.21万 | 1.14亿 | | 301617 | 博苑股份 | 84. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the merger between Sinopec and China Aviation Oil aims to enhance technological research and development, industrialization capabilities, and supply chain efficiency in the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) sector, promoting high-quality development in the aviation industry and facilitating the transition from demonstration flights to large-scale commercial use of SAF in China [1][2] Group 2 - The merger is aligned with recent state-owned enterprise reforms focusing on core responsibilities and enhancing competitiveness through integration, aiming to optimize state capital allocation and avoid homogenized competition [2] - China Aviation Oil, as Asia's largest integrated aviation fuel service provider, and Sinopec, the world's largest refining company, will create a more robust supply chain and competitive advantage by merging their operations [2] Group 3 - The strategic significance of the merger lies in the strong recovery momentum of the aviation industry, with global jet fuel demand projected to reach 389 million tons by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and China's jet fuel consumption expected to grow from 39.28 million tons in 2024 to 75 million tons by 2040 [3] - The merger will allow Sinopec to establish a complete "refining-distribution" integration from crude oil refining to aircraft refueling, while China Aviation Oil will benefit from a more stable upstream supply, thus reducing costs and enhancing energy security for China's aviation sector [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant performance of Zhuoyue New Energy on the STAR Market, with its stock price reaching a limit-up of 75.74 yuan and a trading volume of 230 million yuan, indicating strong investor interest [2] - Among STAR Market stocks, 440 stocks were reported to be rising, with 13 stocks experiencing an increase of over 10%, including Zhuoyue New Energy, while 145 stocks were declining, with notable drops from Xinyuan Micro, Bibet-U, and Xiangyu Medical, which fell by 7.21%, 6.04%, and 4.66% respectively [2] - The stock saw a net inflow of 3.43 million yuan from main funds on the previous trading day, but there was a net outflow of 11.03 million yuan over the last five days [3] Group 2 - As of January 8, the margin trading balance for Zhuoyue New Energy was reported at 83.88 million yuan, with a financing balance of 83.52 million yuan, which increased by 14.23 million yuan, representing a growth of 20.54% from the previous trading day [3] - The margin trading balance increased by a total of 12.08 million yuan over the last ten days, reflecting a growth rate of 16.82%, with financing balance growth at 16.83% and a 15.14% increase in the securities lending balance [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market - A" [6] Core Insights - The restructuring of Sinopec and China Aviation Oil aims to enhance core competitiveness and optimize state-owned capital layout, addressing the issue of homogeneous competition in the aviation fuel sector [2][3] - The global aviation fuel demand is projected to grow to 389 million tons by 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, indicating significant growth potential in this sector [3] - The merger will allow Sinopec to integrate its refining and distribution capabilities, while China Aviation Oil will benefit from a more stable upstream supply, enhancing the overall efficiency and cost-effectiveness of aviation fuel supply [3][4] Summary by Sections Restructuring Purpose - The restructuring aligns with recent state-owned enterprise reforms focused on core business enhancement and competitive advantage [2] - China Aviation Oil's current business model is primarily trade-oriented, necessitating a shift towards integration with larger state-owned enterprises [2] Strategic Significance - The merger is expected to create a comprehensive supply chain from refining to aircraft refueling, reducing intermediary costs and improving energy security for China's aviation industry [3] - The combined strengths of both companies will facilitate advancements in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) technology and its commercial application [4][6] Impact on SAF Industry - Sinopec is a pioneer in SAF production in China, having successfully tested its products on domestic aircraft models [4] - The merger will enhance the technological and operational capabilities in SAF development, promoting its large-scale commercialization and contributing to carbon reduction in the aviation sector [6]

Group 1 - The EU carbon tariff will officially be implemented on January 1, 2026, initially affecting industries such as cement, steel, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen, with potential expansion to chemicals, plastics, ceramics, paper, and organic basic chemicals by 2027 [1] - The current EU ETS carbon price is approximately €80-90 per ton, which is about 13 times higher than China's current carbon price, significantly increasing the cost of exports to the EU [1] - Companies are encouraged to focus on reducing carbon emissions and adapting to carbon tariffs through the circular economy, particularly in sectors like recycled resources, recycling systems, green steam, and green methanol [1] Group 2 - Recent debt resolution actions by listed companies, such as Chuangye Environmental and Mongolian Grass Ecology, indicate a rapid advancement in local debt resolution processes [2] - Local governments are optimizing cash flow through one-time payments of historical debts, early termination of PPP projects, and debt restructuring, which is expected to enhance the market value of many environmental companies [2] - Companies with significant accounts receivable, particularly from government-funded projects, are likely to see notable improvements in market value and profit recovery, especially in solid waste, water services, sanitation, ecological restoration, and water treatment sectors [2] Group 3 - High dividend assets remain attractive, with environmental companies achieving significant excess returns despite a weaker overall dividend environment in 2025 [3] - Notable stock price increases for companies such as China Everbright Environment and Huaneng Environment, with annual growth rates of 31.7%, 26.3%, 46.7%, and 30.6% respectively [3] - The expectation of continued dividend increases is supported by reduced funding needs due to fewer new project orders, making companies like Huaneng Environment, Shanghai Industrial Holdings, and others worthy of attention [3]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is currently facing significant "involution" competition, leading to a situation where companies are experiencing increased production without corresponding profit growth. The industry's overall operating revenue profit margin has declined from 8.03% in 2021 to an expected 4.85% in 2024. However, since 2025, some sub-industries have begun to recover, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 10.56% in the first three quarters, indicating a gradual stabilization and recovery in industry profitability [1][2]. Supply Side - The cumulative fixed asset investment in the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry turned negative starting June 2025, with capital expenditures in the SW basic chemical industry and several sub-industries declining for multiple consecutive quarters. The current expansion cycle in the industry is nearing its end. In September, policies aimed at stabilizing growth in the petrochemical industry were introduced to address low-price disorderly competition and promote the orderly exit of backward production capacity. Sub-industries such as silicone, caprolactam, and PTA polyester have responded by developing or drafting industry guidelines to combat "involution." It is anticipated that there will be stricter approvals for new chemical product capacities, and the elimination of backward production capacity (e.g., small scale, high energy consumption, and high pollution) will accelerate, effectively alleviating the issue of supply surplus in the petrochemical industry [2][3]. Demand Side - Traditional demand is expected to see moderate recovery due to global central banks entering a rate-cutting cycle and pausing balance sheet reductions, supported by monetary and fiscal policy stimuli. Emerging demand from sectors such as new energy, SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel), and AI continues to drive the need for key chemical materials that support technological upgrades in industries [3]. - The overseas chemical capacity reduction, driven by high energy costs and aging facilities, has led to a wave of plant closures in the European chemical industry since 2025. Currently, China's chemical product sales account for over 40% of the global market. With a complete domestic petrochemical industry chain and many chemical products being highly competitive globally, it is expected that Chinese chemical companies will continue to increase their market share, accelerating the digestion of surplus capacity [3]. Macro and Chemical Product Prices - As of December 2025, the manufacturing PMI index was reported at 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating expansion. The China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) was reported at 3927 points, a decrease of 9.4% from 4333 points at the beginning of the year, reflecting a decline in the ex-factory prices of major chemical products [3]. Oil Prices - In 2025, the international oil market experienced a downward trend, with Brent crude futures averaging approximately $69.15 per barrel and WTI crude futures averaging about $65.87 per barrel. This was influenced by a mix of factors including OPEC+ gradual production increases, geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in U.S. oil inventories, and macroeconomic sentiment. OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases at the beginning of 2026 after a cumulative increase of 411,000 barrels per day from October to December 2025 to alleviate surplus pressure. The demand from non-OECD countries and aviation fuel, along with petrochemical raw materials, has become a major support for oil prices. Major institutions have narrowed their demand growth expectations for 2025-2026 to between 700,000 and 1.4 million barrels per day [4]. Investment Recommendations - The refining and chemical sector is expected to see a recovery in overall profits due to moderate oil prices and reduced cost volatility. The supply-demand relationship in the refining and chemical industry, particularly in the aromatics industry chain, is expected to continue to optimize. Key recommendations include China Petroleum (601857) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493) [5]. - In the potassium fertilizer sector, potassium salt resources are expected to remain scarce, with global supply and demand expected to maintain a tight balance over the next 2-3 years. Key recommendations include Yara International (000893), which has significant potassium salt mining rights in Laos [6]. - In the phosphorus chemical sector, the demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries is expected to enhance the marginal pull on phosphorus ore demand, leading to a revaluation of phosphorus ore. Key recommendations include Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895) and Yuntianhua Co., Ltd. (600096) [6]. - In the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) sector, the EU has mandated a gradual increase in SAF content in aviation fuel, with global SAF demand expected to double to 2 million tons by 2025. Key recommendations include Zhuoyue New Energy, a leading domestic biodiesel company [6].