·基本面催化逻辑：全球粮价已触底，2026年易涨难跌。 2023年以来全球粮食持续去库，玉米库存消费比创超10年新低，大豆库存消费比处于过去10年50%分位；供应端 受新冠疫情后低价拖累已边际趋紧，2026年玉米和大豆饲用、工业需求均向好，但仅靠自身供应基本面缺乏足够 上行催化，需外部因素拉动。 ·宏观面催化逻辑：美元降息周期带动大宗商品流动性宽松，推升价格预期，当前大宗商品进入牛市初期，市场对 农 ·基本面催化逻辑：全球粮价已触底，2026年易涨难跌。 2023年以来全球粮食持续去库，玉米库存消费比创超10年新低，大豆库存消费比处于过去10年50%分位；供应端 受新冠疫情后低价拖累已边际趋紧，2026年玉米和大豆饲用、工业需求均向好，但仅靠自身供应基本面缺乏足够 上行催化，需外部因素拉动。 ·宏观面催化逻辑：美元降息周期带动大宗商品流动性宽松，推升价格预期，当前大宗商品进入牛市初期，市场对 农产品价格预期逐步抬升。 油价与粮价相关性极强，可通过农业机械、农化等成本端传导，以及燃料乙醇转化需求拉动影响粮价；当前油价 已开启底部反弹，叠加局势波动、OPEC+增产退坡推升上行预期，为粮价上行提供强劲催化。 ·资金 ...

Market Strategy - The market shows resilience, with opportunities in consumer and real estate sectors [5][10] - The overall A-share market index has been fluctuating, indicating a correction in upward trends, while maintaining strong trading volumes [8][10] Economic Insights - The national public budget revenue for 2025 is projected at 21.6 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.7% decrease from 2024 [19][20] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for January 2026 is reported at 49.3%, indicating a slight contraction in market demand [23][24] Industry Dynamics - Revenue for large-scale cultural enterprises in 2025 is expected to grow by 7.4%, reaching 1521.35 billion yuan [29][30] - The energy sector is focusing on a "four modernization" initiative to enhance renewable energy development [32][33] - Real estate development investment in Shenzhen is projected to decline by 31% in 2025 [35][36] - The Chinese smart glasses market is anticipated to see a significant increase in shipments, with a 211% year-on-year growth expected in 2025 [41][43] Company Tracking - Denghai Seed Industry (002041.SZ) forecasts a net profit growth of 62.29% to 79.99% for 2025, driven by reduced seed costs and increased sales of transgenic corn [46][47] - Longping High-Tech (000998.SZ) expects a net profit increase of 14.17% to 66.86% in 2025, supported by stable domestic operations and improved capital structure [48][49] - Century Huatong (002602.SZ) anticipates a staggering net profit growth of 357% to 475% for 2025, attributed to continuous revenue growth in its gaming business [50][52] - Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233.SH) projects a net profit increase of 60.55% to 81.96% for 2025, benefiting from policy support and optimized production capacity [53][54] - Enjie Co., Ltd. (002812.SZ) expects to turn a profit in 2025, with net profits projected between 109 million to 164 million yuan, recovering from a previous loss of 556 million yuan [56][57]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [3] Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a national seed market inspection for spring crops, focusing on key crops such as corn, soybeans, rice, cotton, potatoes, and vegetables. This initiative aims to ensure seed quality and combat counterfeit products, which is expected to enhance the planting industry chain [1][11]. - The report anticipates a continued acceleration in the commercialization of genetically modified (GM) seeds, which is crucial for improving self-sufficiency rates in key varieties. The upcoming central document is expected to catalyze the seed industry sector [1][11]. - In the pig farming sector, the average price of live pigs has decreased to 12.61 CNY/kg, reflecting a 2.91% week-on-week decline. This trend is attributed to seasonal consumption patterns and inventory adjustments post-holiday [2][12]. - The report suggests that the pig farming sector may see accelerated capacity reduction as it enters a traditional off-season for pork consumption, presenting potential investment opportunities [2][12]. Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a seed market inspection to ensure the safety of seeds for spring production, focusing on major crops [1][11]. - The emphasis on GM technology is expected to revolutionize yield improvements and enhance self-sufficiency in key crops [1][11]. - Recommended stocks in the planting sector include Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development, with a focus on companies with significant first-mover advantages in the seed industry such as Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][11]. Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is currently 12.61 CNY/kg, with a notable week-on-week decline of 2.91% due to seasonal factors and inventory management [2][12]. - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.61 million, reflecting a 2.9% year-on-year decline, indicating a trend towards capacity reduction [2][12]. - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Lihua Agricultural, Muyuan Foods, and Shuanghui Development, among others [2][12]. Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2377.26 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.32% [26]. - Wheat: The average price is 2529.67 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.18% [29]. - Soybeans: The average price is 4072.11 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [41]. - Cotton: The average price is 15750 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.56% [46]. Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.65 CNY/kg, stable week-on-week [53]. - Vitamin E averages 55.30 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.47% [63].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The seed industry is currently in a destocking phase, with significant losses reported. The total net profit of listed seed companies from 2021 to Q3 2025 was only positive in 2023, with a collective net profit nearing -1 billion yuan in Q3 2025. The inventory level is also high, exceeding 12 billion yuan, the highest since 2015. The corn seed production area has been declining, with a 10% year-on-year decrease expected in 2025, resulting in a production volume of 1.527 billion kilograms, also down by 10% year-on-year [7][13]. - Policy changes are encouraging breeding innovation, leading to a decrease in the number of approved corn varieties. The revised Plant Variety Protection Regulations published in April 2025 aim to strengthen variety rights protection and stimulate breeding innovation. In 2025, a total of 1,564 crop varieties were approved, with a notable reduction in corn varieties compared to 2024 [24][25]. - The number of high-quality, disease-resistant rice varieties is increasing, with the "three good varieties" (high yield, quality, and green) rising from 22 in 2022 to 53 in 2025. New rice varieties have shown significant yield improvements, with some varieties increasing yield by over 5% [39][40]. - The focus on corn is shifting towards improving planting density and yield levels. The average yield of newly approved corn varieties has surpassed 800 kilograms per mu, a 1.7% increase year-on-year, with some varieties in the Northwest ecological zone exceeding 1,000 kilograms per mu [54][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Seed Industry in Destocking Phase - The seed industry is experiencing a downturn, with significant losses and high inventory levels. The corn seed production area and yield are both declining [7][13]. 2. Policy Encouragement for Breeding Innovation - New regulations are promoting breeding innovation, resulting in fewer approved corn varieties while increasing the number of approved rice varieties [24][25]. 3. Rice: Increase in High-Quality Varieties - The number of high-quality rice varieties is on the rise, with significant improvements in yield and disease resistance [39][40]. 4. Corn: Emphasis on Planting Density and Yield - There is a growing emphasis on increasing planting density and yield levels in corn production, with new varieties showing improved yields [54][56]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with research and development advantages, such as Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Qianyuan High-Tech [7][54].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in pig prices by 6% to 12.21 CNY/kg, while the price of white feather chicken products has increased to 9,400 CNY/ton [3][4] - The report indicates that the pig farming sector has been profitable for three consecutive weeks, with a profit of 25.1 CNY per head [3] - The report recommends continued investment in the pig farming sector, particularly in companies like Muyuan Foods, Tiankang Biological, Wens Foodstuff, and Lihua Agricultural [3] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has decreased to 127.86 kg, with the proportion of heavy pigs (over 150 kg) at 5.78% [3] - The price of two-yuan sows remains stable at 1,559 CNY/head, while the price of piglets has increased by 3.3% week-on-week [3] - The report anticipates a new wave of price declines post-Chinese New Year due to expected capacity reduction in the pig industry [3] Chicken Farming - The price of white feather chicken products has risen to 9,400 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [4] - Yellow feather chicken farming has been profitable for over five months, with an average price of 14.95 CNY/kg [4] - The report notes a historical high in the number of breeding stock for white feather chickens, with a total of 157.42 million sets updated in December 2025 [4] Cattle Industry - As of the end of 2025, the cattle stock in China has decreased by 8.6%, with expectations for prices to rise in the first half of 2026 [8] - The report suggests that the decline in cattle stock is a precursor to rising beef prices, with historical data supporting this trend [8] Pet Food Market - The pet market in China is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, reaching a total market size of 312.6 billion CNY [7] - The pet food market share has increased to 53.7%, with significant growth in core brands [7]

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.01 多家种企业绩回升，看好种植景气回升 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 养殖：业绩预告公告完毕，四季度生猪养殖普遍亏损。种植：种子公司业绩回升， 看好种植板块景气上行。宠物: 乖宝品牌抖音销售排名靠前，看好年后展会催化。 投资要点： [种植： Table_Summary] 多家种子公司业绩回升，看好种植板块景气上行。 多家种子公司发布业绩预告，登海种业归母净利润拟增长 62%-80%， 隆平高科拟增长 14%-67%，大北农的种子业务也实现净利润增长， 荃银 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The price of piglets follows a clear historical pattern, with expectations for continued price increases followed by a decline around May/June. A significant capacity reduction cycle is anticipated in 2026, primarily occurring in the second half of the year, while stock prices are expected to start rising in the first half [5][6] - The report emphasizes that piglet prices are influenced by production patterns, with December and January being peak slaughter months, leading to increased demand for piglets. Conversely, supply remains relatively stable, which can lead to price increases when demand surges [7] - The report highlights that piglet prices do not correlate with pig price expectations and cannot be used to predict pig prices. The annual variations in piglet prices are consistent, while pig prices fluctuate yearly, indicating a lack of direct relationship [7] - The report recommends focusing on the pig farming sector, predicting a significant capacity reduction cycle in 2026. It suggests that the first half of 2026 will resemble the first half of 2023, with losses in fat pigs but profits in piglets, leading to a smoother capacity reduction after the anticipated price drop in May/June [7] - Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Tiankang Biological, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group, as their valuations are currently at the bottom, with potential for stock price increases as the industry faces losses and clearer capacity reduction trends [7][8] Summary by Sections Historical Price Trends - Piglet prices exhibit a clear historical trend, typically bottoming out in December/January and peaking in May/June. The fluctuations are tied to seasonal production patterns and demand cycles [5][7] Production and Supply Dynamics - The report discusses the relationship between supply and demand, noting that while supply is stable, demand spikes during certain months can lead to price increases. The cyclical nature of pig farming is highlighted, with adjustments made to align production with demand [7] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies a significant capacity reduction cycle in the pig farming industry for 2026, suggesting that investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and current low valuations, as they are likely to benefit from the anticipated market changes [7][8]

Group 1 - The core focus of the investigation is to explore the current status of non-digital economic cooperation and to identify new models and paths for data-driven Sino-African economic and trade development, aligning with the Belt and Road Initiative [1] - The research team conducted on-site visits to several key platforms and projects related to Sino-African cooperation, including the African non-resource product trading center and the permanent exhibition hall of the Sino-African Economic and Trade Expo [3] - The team emphasized the importance of platform collaboration, advocating for data interoperability and functional synergy among various platforms such as the digital comprehensive service platform, technology trading, and cross-border e-commerce [3] Group 2 - The investigation highlighted the need to leverage the province's industrial advantages in agriculture and engineering machinery, utilizing digital technology to create an integrated cross-border service chain [3] - There is a call for deeper innovation in cooperation models, encouraging collaboration among parks, enterprises, universities, and research institutions to explore new paradigms in digital trade and smart agriculture [3] - The initiative supports the collective international expansion of the province's digital economy enterprises, promoting a unified approach to overseas ventures [3]

Market Overview - The market showed a mixed adjustment trend with significant divergence in major indices, as funds shifted from high to low valuations [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95 points, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.66% to 14205.89 points; the ChiNext Index rose 1.27% to 3346.36 points [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 28,624 billion yuan, a decrease of 3,970 billion yuan from the previous trading day [2] - In January, the Shanghai Composite Index recorded a cumulative increase of 3.76%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 5.03%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 4.47% [2] Industry Performance - The computing power industry chain showed active performance, with funds flowing into sectors supported by fundamentals, such as computing power and agriculture [3] - The CPO sector emerged as a strong performer within the computing power space, with stocks like Jieput and Tianfu Communication seeing significant gains [3] - Recent demand for computing power in overseas inference and training has surged, with major cloud service providers like Amazon and Google raising prices [3] - The AI application landscape is expected to see increased demand for computing power in the next 3 to 6 months, driven by the rollout of inference AI applications and ongoing model iterations [4] Agricultural Sector - Agricultural and seed stocks experienced gains, with Shen Nong Seed Industry rising over 12% and other companies like Denghai Seed and Dunhuang Seed reaching their daily limits [5] - Shen Nong Seed Industry projected a net profit of 90 million to 120 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from losses [5] - The Ministry of Agriculture recently held a meeting to discuss the progress of the seed industry revitalization action, emphasizing the importance of domestic seed security and self-sufficiency [5] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market is experiencing a high-low switch, with profit-taking pressure on previously high-performing sectors and increased interest in low-valuation, high-dividend cyclical stocks [6] - The A-share market is expected to maintain a reasonable valuation level, supported by ongoing policy efforts and a gradually solidifying economic recovery [6] - Short-term market trends may continue to exhibit rapid rotation among hot sectors, leading to increased volatility [6]

Core Viewpoint - Longping High-Tech is forecasting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 130 million to 190 million yuan for the year 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 14.17% to 66.86% compared to the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Performance Drivers - The improvement in net profit is attributed to several factors, including enhanced operational resilience in response to industry fluctuations [2]. - The company's foreign corn business has seen revenue growth and significant reduction in losses through optimized marketing policies, cost control measures, and effective financial management [2]. - The gross profit margin has increased by approximately 8% year-on-year due to ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvement initiatives [2]. Group 2: Domestic Market Stability - Despite challenges in the domestic seed market, including oversupply and increased inventory pressure, the revenue from rice seeds has remained stable, and the corn seed business has expanded regionally and by product category [3]. - The company has successfully implemented refined financial management practices, raising 1.2 billion yuan through private placements and strategic investments, which has improved its capital structure and reduced interest expenses by over 10% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Financial Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main operating revenue of 2.841 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.39% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -664 million yuan, a decline of 39.62% [5]. - The third quarter alone showed a significant increase in main operating revenue of 125.71% year-on-year, although the net profit remained negative at -500 million yuan [5]. - The company's debt ratio stands at 63.85%, with financial expenses amounting to approximately 80.91 million yuan and a gross profit margin of 31.98% [5].