1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates in the first half of January were relatively strong, and attention should be paid to Maersk's quotes in the first week of the second half of January [1] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Standard Contract for Container Freight Index (European Line) Futures", including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [2] - The EC2602 contract follows Maersk's freight rates in the second week of January, and the 02 contract will follow the real - time quotes. The current focus is whether the first half of January is the end of this round of freight rate increases [4] - Far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downwards [5][6] - The strategy suggests a sideways trend for the 12 - month contract and a moderately strong sideways trend for the February contract, with no arbitrage strategy currently [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Price - As of December 29, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 at 1822.90, EC2604 at 1169.90, EC2606 at 1374.00, EC2608 at 1497.70, EC2610 at 1054.70, and EC2512 at 1604.80. The total open interest of all container freight index (European line) futures contracts is 62,906.00 lots, with a single - day trading volume of 33,246.00 lots [7] II. Spot Price - On December 26, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1690 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2188 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 3033 US dollars/FEU. On December 29, 2025, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1742.64 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1301.41 points [7] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In January, the average weekly capacity was 306,200 TEU, and in February, it was 274,500 TEU. In January, there were 3 blank sailings and 1 TBN, and in February, there were 7 TBNs and 4 blank sailings [3] - In 2025, 260 container ships were delivered, with a total capacity of 2.103 million TEU. As of December 28, 2025, 78 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 1.175 million TEU, and 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered, with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU [7] IV. Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan in Gaza is advancing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume navigation in 2026, which may increase the effective supply of capacity and put downward pressure on freight rates [5][6] - Maersk's container ship "Maersk Sebarok" completed its first Red Sea voyage since January 2024 on December 19, 2025, marking its tentative resumption of the Red Sea route [6] V. Demand and European Economy - The freight volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year [4] - The progress of long - term contract signing by OA and PA alliances has accelerated, with the central price of long - term contracts around 1800 US dollars/FEU [4]

키s 集运量版 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਨੀ EC2512 | | 昨日收盘价 1608.0 | 涨跌 0.1 3% | 意 -18.8 | 昨日成交量 112 | | 昨日持仓昼 1714 | 持仓变动 -76 | | | EC2602 EC2604 | | 1799.7 1164.5 | 0.22% -0.04% | -210.5 424.7 | 28762 6267 | | 34250 21254 | -66 264 | | | EC2606 | | 1320.0 | 0.08% | 269.2 | 258 | | 2126 | -19 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1496.7 | 1.06% | 92.5 | 112 | | 1181 | -12 | | | EC2610 | | 1059.0 | 0.715% | 530.2 | 811 | | 5941 | 2777 | | | 月差 | | 前 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, while the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. The far - month contracts are under pressure from the potential resumption of the Suez Canal, which may suppress their valuations. The 02 contract's delivery is becoming clearer and will follow real - world quotes more closely. The focus now is on whether the first half of January marks the end of this round of freight rate increases [8][9][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Multiple shipping companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk quotes for the first and second weeks of January are 1585/2550 and 1570/2520 respectively; HPL's quotes for the second half of December and the first half of January are 1535/2535 and 1835/3035 respectively. Other companies like MSC, ONE, HMM, YML, CMA, EMC, and OOCL also have their respective quotes [1][2][3]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated that Israel will never fully withdraw from the Gaza Strip and will set up a security zone in the Gaza Strip to protect Israeli communities, even after the cease - fire and Hamas disarmament [3]. - **Policy Changes**: The Shanghai International Energy Trading Center plans to revise the "Shanghai International Energy Trading Center Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract". It will adjust the contract months and the minimum price change [4]. II. Supply and Demand - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly container shipping capacity in December, January, and February is 31.45, 30.46, and 28.47 million TEU respectively. There are empty sailings and TBNs in January and February, mainly from the OA and PA alliances [5]. - **Demand**: Information from various surveys shows that the cargo volume is gradually recovering [6]. III. Contract Analysis - **12 - Month Contract**: The delivery and settlement price of the 12 - month contract is gradually becoming clear, estimated to be between 1600 - 1700 points. The large - scale cargo collection and container dumping from December 8 - 15 may drag down the index on December 22 and 29 [6][7]. - **EC2602 Contract**: The delivery of the 02 contract is becoming clearer, and it will follow real - world quotes more closely. The current focus is on whether the first half of January is the end of this round of freight rate increases. The Maersk quote of 2500 US dollars/FEU is equivalent to about 1750 - 1800 points on the SCFIS [8]. - **Far - Month Contracts**: Due to the high probability of the Suez Canal resuming operation in 2026, the far - month contracts are under pressure, and their valuations may be revised downward. The normal SCFI Shanghai - Europe route freight rate from 2017 - 2019 was between 600 - 1200 US dollars/FEU, corresponding to about 600 - 1400 points on the SCFIS [9]. IV. Market Data - **Futures Market**: As of December 25, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 66,466.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 36,322.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are provided [10]. - **Spot Market**: On December 19, the SCFI Shanghai - Europe route price was 1533 US dollars/TEU, the Shanghai - US West route price was 1992 US dollars/FEU, and the Shanghai - US East route price was 2846 US dollars/FEU. On December 22, the SCFIS Shanghai - Europe was 1589.20 points, and the Shanghai - US West was 962.10 points [10]. - **Container Ship Delivery**: In 2025, 250 container ships have been delivered, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. As of December 21, 2025, 75 ships with a capacity of 12000 - 16999 TEU and 12 ships with a capacity of over 17000 TEU have been delivered [10]. V. Strategy - **Single - Side Trading**: The 12 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, and the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. - **Arbitrage**: No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [11].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is expected to oscillate with an upward trend [9] - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations are likely to be revised down [7] - The delivery settlement price of the December contract is estimated to be between 1600 - 1700 points, and attention should be paid to the actual SCFIS release [4] - The 02 contract is gradually shifting to the real - world trading logic, and the current point of contention is whether the first half of January marks the end of this round of freight rate increases [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of December 24, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts for the container shipping index (European line) futures was 66,098 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 29,953 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1795.80, 1165.00, 1319.00, 1481.00, 1051.10, and 1605.90 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On December 19, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1533 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1992 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2846 dollars/FEU. On December 22, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1589.20 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 962.10 points [8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the average weekly capacity for the remaining two weeks was 314,500 TEU, with capacities of 301,000 and 327,900 TEU in weeks 52 and 53 respectively. In January, the average weekly capacity was 304,600 TEU, and in February, it was 284,700 TEU. There were 3 blank sailings and 2 TBNs in January, and 8 TBNs and 3 blank sailings in February [3] - As of December 21, 2025, 250 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. Among them, 75 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1315 million TEU, and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [8] 3.4 Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan for Gaza is progressing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume operation after the Spring Festival in 2026. The resumption of the Suez Canal means an increase in effective capacity supply and the risk of further depressing freight rates [7] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Information from various surveys indicates that the cargo volume is gradually recovering [4] - The signing process of long - term agreements by OA and PA alliances has accelerated, with the central price of long - term agreements around 1800 dollars/FEU [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PA Alliance's prices are expected to be adjusted gradually in the first half - month, and the EC2602 contract is in a situation where the peak time of freight rates is being speculated. The 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate, while the 2 - month contract is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias [1][6][9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Price - As of December 23, 2025, the closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2602 contract is 1806.60, EC2604 contract is 1158.00, EC2606 contract is 1331.70, EC2608 contract is 1480.00, EC2610 contract is 1052.00, and EC2512 contract is 1606.00. The 12 - contract is expected to oscillate, and the 02 - contract will gradually follow the real - world quotes, with the current speculation point being whether the first half - month of January is the end of this round of freight rate increase [6][8][9] 3.2 Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping alliances and companies vary. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes changed from 1580/2540 in the first week of January to 1560/2500 in the second week; HPL's price increased from 1535/2535 in the second half of December to 2135/3535 in the first half of January. Other alliances and companies also have corresponding price changes [1] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the remaining 2 - week monthly average capacity is 314,500 TEU, with capacities of 301,000/327,900 TEU in WEEK52/53 respectively. In January, the monthly average capacity is 304,600 TEU, and in February, it is 284,700 TEU. There are also empty - sailings and TBNs in different months and alliances. In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries, with 250 ships delivered and a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU [4][8] 3.4 Supply Chain - Geopolitically, Israel's remarks on building settlements in the Gaza Strip may damage the peace - making efforts and the cooperation intention of Arab countries. The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the "Shanghai International Energy Exchange Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract", including adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change [3] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Not provided in the content other than the potential impact of geopolitical factors on the market and the relationship between supply and demand reflected in the shipping prices and capacity [3] 3.6 Strategy - Unilateral: The 12 - contract oscillates, and the 2 - month contract oscillates with a slight upward bias. Arbitrage: None [9]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current valuation of the 02 contract is high, and future performance depends on spot market trends. Although the short - term sentiment is positive due to spot market improvement, it's difficult to predict the peak height and time of freight rates in January and subsequent price decline rhythms. It's not recommended to enter the market at the current level [3]. - The valuation of the 04 contract is moderately high, but it may follow the spot market or recover the basis in the short term. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the near term [3]. - Far - month contracts are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. It's safer to short off - season contracts than peak - season contracts. Adopt a positive spread trading strategy overall and focus on short - selling opportunities in the 10 contract [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 1606.0, 1806.6, 1158.0, 1331.7, 1480.0, and 1052.0 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.53%, - 3.48%, - 0.71 - 5% (might be a typo, assumed - 0.71%), 0.89%, - 0.42%, and - 0.85% [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 281, 41660, 7754, 372, 141, and 796 respectively. The open interests were 1890, 35004, 20867, 2187, 1199, and 5603 respectively, with changes of - 66, - 1506, 396, 3, 2, and 202 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, the EC2512 - 2504 spread was 448.0, with a daily change of - 16.2 and a weekly change of - 52.1; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was - 200.6, with a daily change of 40.2 and a weekly change of - 104.4 [2]. Spot Market - **SCFIS**: Updated weekly on Mondays, the index on December 22, 2025, was 1589.20, up 5.21% from the previous period and 0.10% from the period before that [2]. - **SCFI (Euro - Line)**: Updated on Fridays, the price on December 19, 2025, was 1533 dollars/TEU, down 0.33% from the previous period and up 9.86% from the period before that [2]. - **CCFI (Euro - Line)**: Updated on Fridays, the index on December 19, 2025, was 1473.9, up 0.23% from the previous period and 1.59% from the period before that [2]. - **NCFI (Euro - Line)**: Updated weekly, the index on December 19, 2025, was 1067.29, up 0.30% from the previous period and 9.98% from the period before that [2]. Euro - Line Spot Situation - **Week 52**: MSK opened 2300 cabins (a decrease of 100 compared to the previous week), and other companies mainly followed Week 51. The central price was 2500 US dollars, equivalent to about 1750 points on the futures market. All shipping companies announced price increases for January cabins [4]. - **Week 1**: MSK opened cabins at 2500 US dollars (an increase of 200 compared to the previous week), and waiting for other shipping companies to open cabins [4]. - **Week 2**: MSK's prices were mainly flat, with a price of 2500 US dollars (2600 for high - cube containers) [4]. Related News - On December 23, the Suez Canal Authority reported that the French CMA CGM Jacques Saadé and Adonis passed through the canal. One was a return ship and the other was on a specific route with precedent [5].

Group 1: Market Analysis - The shipping rates for various routes have been reported, with Maersk's Shanghai-Rotterdam rates for the first week of January at $1580/$2540 and the second week at $1560/$2500 [2][14] - The Ocean Alliance's CMA reported a rate of $1859/$3293 for the first half of January, while OOCL's rates for December were between $2730-$2752 [2][14] - The average weekly capacity for December was reported at 314,500 TEU, with January's average at 304,600 TEU [5][16] Group 2: Contract Adjustments - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange plans to revise the shipping index futures contract by adjusting the contract months to include the most recent 1-6 months and two seasonal months, excluding February [4][15] - The minimum price fluctuation will be changed from 0.1 points to 0.5 points to better align with current market conditions [4][15] Group 3: December Contract Settlements - The settlement prices for December contracts are becoming clearer, with the SCFIS index averaging 1589.2 points by December 22 [6][17] - The expected settlement price range for December contracts is estimated to be between 1600-1700 points, influenced by various market factors [6][17] Group 4: Future Contracts and Market Dynamics - The EC2602 contract is set to reflect the January end market prices, with Maersk's January second week rate at $2500/FEU [7][18] - The potential reopening of the Suez Canal in 2026 could increase effective capacity supply and further pressure freight rates downward [8][19] - As of December 23, the total open interest for the European shipping index futures was reported at 66,750 contracts, with a daily transaction volume of 51,004 contracts [9][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The near - term contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) are oscillating weakly, and the far - term contracts need to focus on the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza [1][9] - For the 2602 contract, the core issues are the price height, inflection point time, and price decline rate. It is expected to oscillate widely between 1700 - 1900 points in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [11][13] - For the 2604 contract, shorting on rallies has a relatively higher winning rate. Its bottom valuation in the first stage can be anchored at the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, 1031 points. It is recommended to roll short following the 02 valuation [13] - For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage cease - fire negotiation in Gaza and consider gradually shorting [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2512 closed at 1,630.1 with a daily increase of 0.21%, EC2602 at 1,719.8 with a 3.66% increase, and EC2604 at 1,128.8 with a 1.66% increase. The difference between EC2512 and EC2604 is 501.3, and between EC2602 and EC2604 is 591.0 [1] - **Freight Rate Index**: The SCFIS European route was at 1,589.20 points with a weekly increase of 5.2%, and the SCFIS US - West route was at 962.10 points with a 4.1% increase. The SCFI European route was at $1,533/TEU with a bi - weekly decrease of 0.3%, and the SCFI US - West route was at $1,992/FEU with an 11.9% increase [1] - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different carriers' prices for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route range from $1,418 - $3,010 for 40'GP and $1,530 - $1,955 for 20'GP [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was at 98.26, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was at 7.03 [1] 3.2 Macro News - On December 19, Maersk's Sebarok, a 6,500 TEU Singapore - flagged container ship built in 2007, completed crossing the Mandeb Strait and entered the Red Sea, the first Maersk ship to pass through the strait in nearly two years, operating on the MECL route (India - US) [8][10] - On December 23, the Israeli Defense Minister's Office stated that the Israeli government has no intention of establishing Jewish settlements in the Gaza Strip, after earlier remarks from the defense minister about building new "outposts" in northern Gaza [8] 3.3 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In January, the weekly average capacity is maintained at 318,000 TEU/week. The undetermined voyages are reduced to 1 ship. The capacity in the second week is revised down from 332,000 to 318,000 TEU due to new passive blank sailings in AEU7, and the capacity in the fourth week is revised up from 315,000 to 329,000 TEU [9] - **Demand Side**: In late December, major shipping companies started the container - skipping mode. The loading performance of the PA Alliance has improved significantly, laying the foundation for the price increase in early January. The overall booking in the first week of January is slow, and the peak cargo volume may appear around mid - January and then decline [10] - **Price Forecast**: In early January, the second - week SPOT average of some carriers is expected to be around $2,550 - $2,600. The weekly FAK average in the second week is revised down by $100 to around $2,700/FEU. In late January, shipping companies have the incentive to reduce prices to stockpile goods [12][13]

航运日报 | 2025-12-23 关注马士基1月第二周开价情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹1月第一周报价1580/2540；HPL12月下半月价格1535/2535，1月上半月报 价2135/3535. 地缘端：马士基集装箱船\"Maersk Sebarok\"号于2025年12月19日完成自2024年1月撤离后首次红海航行，标志其试 探性恢复红海航线。此次复航被视为行业风向标，但马士基强调安全仍是首要前提，全面恢复需循序渐进。美国 国务卿鲁比奥表示，加沙和平进程的下一步应是宣布任命一个和平委员会，并确定将协助管理该飞地的一批技术 官僚团队。 上海国际能源交易中心拟修订《上海国际能源交易中心集运指数(欧线)其期货标准合约》。向社会公开征求意见， 具体内容如下:一是将合约月份由"2、4、6、8、10、12月"调整为"最近1-6个月为连续月份(2月除外)，以及随后两 个季月"。拟挂牌最近1-6个月连续月份合约，便于产业客户精确匹配期货和现货的到期时间、提高套期保值效率; 考虑到2月春节假期期间，集运现货市场较为清淡，拟剔除2月合约;同时，为保持挂牌合约覆盖 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2602 contract, consider lightly building long positions around 1700 points or lower for delivery; for the 2604 contract, maintain rolling short - selling. The 2602 contract has three scenarios: neutral, optimistic, and pessimistic, and the price trend in week 3 is uncertain. The 2604 contract has a relatively higher probability of short - selling, and in the short - term, beware of the risk of premium water [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - This week's view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is to lightly build long positions in the 02 contract for delivery and pay attention to the premium water risk in the 04 contract. In the past week, the weekly average capacity in January remained at 318,000 TEU/week, and the number of pending voyages was reduced to 1. There were changes in different alliances' ship schedules. In February, there are currently 4 blank sailings and 8 pending voyages, with a weekly average capacity of 275,000 TEU/week, and there is still a large room for revision [4][5] 3.2 Demand - From the perspective of China's exports (valued in amount, updated to November), in November, China's year - on - year exports to the US declined from - 25.2% in October to - 28.6%, while the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the EU increased by 13.9 percentage points to 14.8%. Exports to ASEAN decreased from 11.0% to 8.2% but still showed resilience, and exports to Africa further increased to 27.6%. In terms of Asian exports to Europe (updated to October) and North America (updated to October), there were different trends in container trade volumes in different months. The US import volume tracking (updated to December 11) also showed certain trends [33][36][39] 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Supply Chain Risk Events - Geopolitical situation disturbances include the limited progress of the second - stage cease - fire talks in Gaza, the increased risk of internal conflict in Yemen, and the symbolic passage of Maersk's Sebarok through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, which does not mean the full normalization of the Red Sea route [52] 3.3.2 European Line Ship Schedule - In the past week, the weekly average capacity in January remained at 318,000 TEU/week, and there were changes in different alliances' ship schedules. In February, there are currently 4 blank sailings and 8 pending voyages, with a weekly average capacity of 275,000 TEU/week, and there is still a large room for revision [54] 3.3.3 Turnover Efficiency - It includes aspects such as the sailing speed of container ships, the number of idle container ships, regional congestion situations (including ports in China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America), and the congestion situations of major ports in Europe, North America, and Asia [63][67][69] 3.3.4 Static Capacity - In the past three months, there were new 12,000 + TEU container ships launched by the top ten liner companies, and there are also new ships to be delivered in the remaining months of 2025 and in 2026. The delivery plans of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU container ships from 2024 - 2026 are also summarized [80][83][85] 3.4 Price - For the 2512 contract, the delivery settlement price is the average of the SCFIS indices of weeks 50, 51, and 52. The SCFIS index of week 51 is expected to be between 1570 - 1630 points, and that of week 52 is expected to be between 1730 - 1780 points, with the delivery settlement price of the 2512 contract likely to be between 1600 - 1640 points. In January, based on the quotes of leading companies, the average FAK in the market in week 2 is expected to be around 2800 US dollars/FEU [16][17]