Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the China Railway Group has declared the 12306 platform as the only official ticket sales channel, stating that it has not partnered with any third-party platforms and will enhance its system to combat ticket scalping [2][3] - The China Railway Group's passenger department director, Zhu Wenzhong, highlighted the negative impact of third-party platforms on the stability of the 12306 system and announced plans to optimize the risk control system for effective identification [3] - The railway authority is focusing on four key areas for ticket sales organization: addressing the needs of students, workers, and the elderly; introducing a limited-time free refund policy for erroneous purchases; continuously improving ticket sales strategies; and ensuring the stable operation of the 12306 system [5] Group 2 - The article mentions that the 2026 Spring Festival travel period is expected to see a record 9.5 billion person-times of cross-regional movement, with self-driving travel being the main mode of transport, accounting for about 80% [6] - The article also notes that the total passenger volume for railways and civil aviation is projected to reach 540 million and 95 million respectively during the Spring Festival travel period, with both figures expected to exceed historical peaks [6]

智通财经APP获悉，美东时间周四美股盘后，苹果(AAPL.US)发布了2026财年第一季度财报。在iPhone 17系列的强劲拉动下，公司假日季营收创下历史新 高，大中华区市场实现38%的同比暴涨，同时苹果还给出了超预期的第二财季营收指引，一扫此前市场对其硬件增长见顶的担忧。 业绩概览：iPhone需求"火爆"，驱动创纪录增长 作为苹果的核心营收支柱，iPhone业务在本季度迎来爆发式增长，营收达853亿美元，同比大增23%，远超分析师782亿美元的预期，创下历史最佳季度表 现。苹果CEO库克表示，iPhone17系列的市场需求"堪称火爆"，在全球所有地理区域均创下销量纪录，其中高端版本尤为畅销，成为拉动营收和利润的关 键。这一成绩也助力苹果在近几个月超越三星(SSNLF.US)，重新夺回全球智能手机市场销量第一的宝座。库克透露，目前苹果全生态设备的安装基数已达 25亿台。 大中华区成为本次财报的最大亮点，该区域营收达255亿美元，同比增长38%，大幅超出市场218亿美元的预期。库克指出，iPhone在该地区创下了销售纪 录，并且推动安卓用户向苹果生态的转换数实现两位数增长。 此外，苹果虽未披露印度市场的具体 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 30 日 星期五 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美联储主席鲍威尔表示，通胀风险已经在一定程度上消退，就业风险可能正趋 | | | | | 于稳定，加息并非任何人对下一步行动的基本假设。关税的大部分影响已经传导至 | | | | | 经济，预计关税通胀将在 2026 年年中消退。他还说，不会置评美元走势。 | | | | | 2、美国财长贝森特认为，美国贸易逆差缩小应该会自动让美元随着时间的推移走 | | | | | 强，称"强美元政策意味着设定正确的基本面，如果我们有健全的政策，资金就会 | | | | | 流入"；美联储主席人选仍有四位。 | | | | | 3、特斯拉 Q4 财报电话会上 CE ...

近日，美国宣布，由于韩国立法机构未能履行贸易协议中的法律程序，美国将韩国出口至美国的汽车、 木材、药品关税以及其他所谓"对等关税"的税率从15%提高至25%。这一决定标志着美韩贸易关系再次 陷入严峻对抗。 此次关税上调的核心争议在于韩国国会尚未通过旨在落实对美投资承诺的《对美投资特别法案》。根据 2025年达成的协议，韩国承诺向美国投资3500亿美元，作为交换，美国同意降低对韩关税。然而，美方 认为韩国在享受优惠后，在立法和投资执行层面表现迟缓，这种"不平衡"触发其惩罚性关税举措。 市场人士分析认为，从更深层次的角度审视，美国此次突然发难绝非孤立的贸易纠纷，而是其"美国优 先"政策的典型延续，背后交织着多重政治与经济意图。 突如其来的"关税炸弹"使韩国政府陷入窘境。韩国总统办公室政策室长金容范迅速召开了跨部门对策会 议，紧急商讨应对方案。韩国政府目前采取的策略可以概括为"多线并行"：一方面，紧急派遣产业通商 资源部长官金正官赴美，旨在直接会晤美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克，深入摸清美国政府的真实底 牌，并寻求外交斡旋空间。另一方面，韩国政府正试图向美方解释投资进度放缓的客观原因。韩国财政 经济部长官具润哲在接受 ...

Core Viewpoint - Europe is perceived to be lagging behind in the technology race against the US and China, with experts warning that without urgent action, Europe risks losing its competitive edge in innovation [1][3]. Group 1: Current Situation - The European semiconductor industry is heavily reliant on US technology, with companies like ASML facing potential operational halts if US cooperation ceases [3]. - In contrast, China has accelerated its innovation in semiconductors and AI despite US restrictions, while Europe struggles with fragmented technology and lacks major internet giants [3][5]. - The belief in Europe's institutional advantages has not translated into technological success, leading to a lack of significant innovation and market presence [3][5]. Group 2: Innovation Challenges - The concept of "inclusive growth" proposed by economist Philippe Aghion emphasizes that innovation should benefit the majority, but internal divisions among EU member states hinder collaborative efforts [9][11]. - The EU's research funding is often inefficiently allocated, resulting in a lack of support for emerging companies and stifling innovation [11][13]. - The slow progress in 5G deployment exemplifies Europe's struggle with technological independence and timely decision-making [11][13]. Group 3: Global Context - The US has enacted the CHIPS and Science Act to bolster its semiconductor industry while restricting exports to China, which may backfire by limiting its own market opportunities [13][15]. - China's rapid advancement in technology is attributed to a strong talent pipeline and collaboration between academia and industry, contrasting with Europe's talent drain to the US and Canada [15][17]. - Data from 2023 indicates that out of the top 20 global tech companies, only two are from Europe, highlighting the continent's diminished presence in key sectors like semiconductors and digital payments [15][17]. Group 4: Institutional Issues - Europe's reliance on a decentralized approach to innovation has led to inefficiencies, with significant government investments failing to yield competitive results [17][19]. - Aghion suggests that Europe should learn from China's centralized strategies to enhance efficiency and innovation outcomes [17][19]. - The historical analogy of the Ming Dynasty serves as a cautionary tale for Europe, emphasizing the need for timely action to avoid being left behind in the global technology race [19].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and growth prospects of the foldable smartphone market, particularly focusing on durability issues in low temperatures and the expected increase in shipments due to Apple's entry into the market in 2026 [3][13]. Durability Issues in Low Temperatures - Foldable smartphones face durability problems in extremely low temperatures, as highlighted by a viral incident where a user's device was damaged in Harbin due to temperature fluctuations [5][11]. - The core reason for screen breakage in cold weather is attributed to the material properties of flexible OLED screens, which become brittle at low temperatures, leading to issues like delamination and liquid leakage [12]. - Recommendations for using foldable phones in cold environments include minimizing opening and closing the device outdoors and allowing it to warm up before use [12] [13]. Market Growth Predictions - Despite durability concerns, the global shipment of foldable smartphones is expected to reach 24 to 25 million units in 2026, a growth of approximately 41% to 47% from 17 million units in 2025 [14]. - The Chinese market is projected to see shipments of 12 to 13 million units in 2026, reflecting a growth of 20% to 30% from 10 million units in 2025 [14]. - The foldable smartphone market is anticipated to remain small, accounting for about 2% of the total global smartphone sales of approximately 1.15 billion units in 2026 [15]. Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - China has become the largest market for foldable smartphones, with local manufacturers focusing on innovation in hinge design, screen technology, and overall device performance [17]. - Major brands like Huawei, Apple, and Samsung are expected to dominate the market, with Huawei holding a significant share of around 50% in China [18]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a clear division among leading brands, with Huawei showing a 14% increase in sales, while other brands like Honor and Vivo are facing challenges [18]. Future Observations - The introduction of Apple's foldable smartphone is anticipated to significantly influence market dynamics, with expectations for innovations in hardware and software that could enhance user experience [20]. - The ongoing "trade-in" subsidy policy in China may provide additional support for the foldable smartphone market, although rising costs present challenges for manufacturers [20].

智通财经1月29日讯（编辑 夏军雄）周四，美股股指期货小幅走高，投资者正在权衡多家大型科技公司 发布的财报，以及美联储最新的利率决定。欧洲主要指数普遍上涨。 （来源：英为财情） Meta在盘前交易中大涨9%，此前该公司给出了好于预期的一季度销售指引。同为"科技七巨 头"（Magnificent Seven）成员的特斯拉股价也上涨2%，其第四季度业绩超出市场预期。 不过，微软股价下跌近7%，限制了大盘涨幅。微软报告称，第二财季云业务增长放缓，同时对第三财 季的营业利润率给出了偏弱的指引。 目前，投资者将目光转向苹果，该公司计划于周四美股收盘后公布财报。 【特斯拉：预计2026年资本支出将超过200亿美元】 据报道，特斯拉表示，2025年资本支出达85.3亿美元。预计2026年资本支出将超过200亿美元。 【卡特彼勒2025年全年营收为36.3亿美元，同比增长4%】 在其他财报方面，卡特彼勒盘前股价上涨逾1%，这家工业巨头公布的第四季度业绩大幅好于华尔街预 期。 美联储周三维持利率不变，符合市场预期。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）表示，多项指标显示"经济 活动正以稳健的步伐扩张"，失业率"已显现出一定的稳定迹象" ...

智通财经1月29日讯（编辑 夏军雄）周四，美股股指期货小幅走高，投资者正在权衡多家大型科技公司 发布的财报，以及美联储最新的利率决定。欧洲主要指数普遍上涨。 （来源：英为财情） 据报道，英伟达、亚马逊与微软正在商讨向OpenAI投资高达600亿美元，英伟达投资至多300亿美元， 融资前OpenAI估值可能达7300亿美元。 Meta在盘前交易中大涨9%，此前该公司给出了好于预期的一季度销售指引。同为"科技七巨 头"（Magnificent Seven）成员的特斯拉股价也上涨2%，其第四季度业绩超出市场预期。 不过，微软股价下跌近7%，限制了大盘涨幅。微软报告称，第二财季云业务增长放缓，同时对第三财 季的营业利润率给出了偏弱的指引。 目前，投资者将目光转向苹果，该公司计划于周四美股收盘后公布财报。 在其他财报方面，卡特彼勒盘前股价上涨逾1%，这家工业巨头公布的第四季度业绩大幅好于华尔街预 期。 美联储周三维持利率不变，符合市场预期。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）表示，多项指标显示"经济 活动正以稳健的步伐扩张"，失业率"已显现出一定的稳定迹象"。 根据芝商所美联储利率观察工具，市场目前仍预计今年会有两次幅度为2 ...

极低温下的耐用问题待解 2025年1月6日，上述博主在小红书上配图提醒说，去哈尔滨的朋友慎带折叠屏手机。她透露，其折叠屏 手机冻坏了；维修店说是因为温差，导致内屏漏液，买了碎屏险，还要服务费499元。当时这条内容分 享引发了上万网友关注、7000多条评论。 折叠屏手机的全球出货量今年预计将达到2500万部左右。 近日，折叠屏在东北变成"碎碎冰"的话题登上热搜榜。第一财经记者发现，其中一张热图是来自一位小 红书博主一年前的分享。 尽管折叠屏不抗冻的话题隔了一年"又火了"，调研机构预测，受苹果将入市等因素影响，折叠屏手机今 年出货量仍将增长，全球、中国出货量有望分别达2500万部和1300万部左右。而折叠屏手机在极低温下 的耐久问题仍有待超薄玻璃等材料的进步。 "（这个话题）又火了"，这位博主在1月28日告诉第一财经记者，她的折叠屏手机已修好，正常用没问 题。她是浙江人，去年到东北是参加别人的婚礼。她建议，折叠屏手机不要在那么低温的环境下拿出 来，回屋以后，暖和一下，再"掰开"用。 至于多少摄氏度以下不能用，这位博主说，其实也有概率问题。她后来在评论区看到，说明书上是有写 的。对于说明书是否有写0摄氏度或者多少摄 ...

Group 1 - The smartphone industry is expected to undergo significant changes by 2026, including the mainstream adoption of foldable screens, advancements in AI capabilities, and improvements in battery technology, transitioning smartphones from "all-in-one tools" to "smart partners" [1] Group 2 - Foldable smartphone sales are projected to experience explosive growth in 2026, driven by Apple's first foldable iPhone, with a predicted year-on-year shipment increase of 30% and Apple capturing 22% of the market share in its first year [2] - The cost of key components, such as OLED panels, has decreased by 40% compared to three years ago, enabling the emergence of foldable models priced around 4000 yuan, thus breaking the previous price barrier of 10,000 yuan [2] - Samsung's UTG glass and OPPO's titanium alloy hinge optimizations have improved durability, allowing foldable devices to withstand over 500,000 folds and reducing visible creases [2] Group 3 - The transition to 2nm chip manufacturing is set to alleviate battery life concerns, with TSMC's N2 process expected to be in mass production by 2026, enhancing performance by 39% and NPU computing power by 113% [3] - By 2026, one-third of global smartphone SoCs are anticipated to utilize 3nm or smaller processes, with a 40% penetration rate of ASIC custom chips for AI and imaging applications [3] - The widespread adoption of silicon-carbon anode materials is expected to increase energy density by 40% compared to 2025, allowing for 8000mAh batteries to remain within 8.5mm thickness [3] Group 4 - The introduction of AI into smartphone design is transforming user interaction, with devices like the iPhone set to feature an upgraded AI system capable of executing complex commands across apps [5] - Alibaba's integration of its AI across various apps enhances user experience by allowing seamless data and service flow, marking a shift towards smartphones as ecosystem hubs [7] - The emergence of dedicated AI smartphones signifies a transition from AI as a mere feature to a core component of device functionality, enabling advanced capabilities such as context-aware interface adjustments [7] Group 5 - The integration of AI with imaging systems is enhancing creative experiences, with flagship models featuring 200MP main cameras and supporting AI-generated content creation [8] - The ability of devices to connect across ecosystems, such as Google Pixel 10's compatibility with Apple products, highlights the importance of cross-device interoperability in gaining competitive advantages [9] - Companies like OPPO and vivo are optimizing their services for better integration with Apple devices, while Samsung's Galaxy Z TriFold supports multiple independent desktops for enhanced productivity [9]