欧盟执行机构欧盟委员会一直在推动EIB放宽对防务项目融资的限制，鼓励欧洲银行在该领域发挥更大 作用。然而，作为企业融资主要来源的区域性银行——此前普遍认为该行业缺乏吸引力——目前仍处于 试探阶段。与此同时，由于相关法规严格，银行在为防务公司融资时也面临障碍。据报道，包括德意志 银行、法国巴黎银行、意大利联合信贷银行、Intesa Sanpaolo、荷兰国际集团以及荷兰合作银行等多家 银行已组建工作小组，探索解决监管障碍的途径。欧盟委员会预计将于本月提出一项提案，以解决防务 行业在融资等方面面临的多重障碍。 智通财经APP获悉，欧盟的贷款机构——欧洲投资银行(EIB)——将与包括德意志银行在内的大型欧洲 银行合作，为防务领域提供30亿欧元(约合34亿美元)融资，以打消该行业在参与欧洲军事重整方面的顾 虑。据知情人士透露，EIB已与德意志银行达成协议，向防务与安全领域的中小企业提供5亿欧元的流 动性支持。知情人士补充称，与法国BPCE银行的第二份协议最早可能在下周达成。 与俄罗斯之间紧张的地缘政治局势以及美国对欧洲安全承诺的摇摆不定促使欧盟不断加强自身的军事能 力。欧盟此前设立了一个1500亿欧元的工具用以向各国 ...

高盛集团：+2.5%；汇丰控股：+2.5%；渣打银行：+2.5%；蒙特利尔银行：+2.5%；国民西敏寺银行： +2.5%； 金十整理：机构预期今晚20:30公布的美国5月未季调CPI年率（前值：+2.3%） 澳新银行：+2.3%；法巴银行：+2.4%；美国银行：+2.4%；花旗集团：+2.4%；瑞银集团：+2.4%； 摩根大通：+2.4%；野村证券：+2.4%；道明证券：+2.4%；高频经济：+2.4%；巴克莱银行：+2.4%； 富国银行：+2.4%；荷兰银行：+2.4%；瑞杰金融：+2.4%；劳埃德银行：+2.5%；帝国商业银行： +2.5%； 荷兰国际：+2.5%；丰业银行：+2.5%；法兴银行：+2.5%；摩根士丹利：+2.5%；加拿大皇家银行： +2.5%； 凯投宏观：+2.5%；日本三井住友银行：+2.5%；星展银行：+2.6%；贝伦贝格银行：+2.7%。[路透预 期：+2.5%] ...

Group 1 - The upcoming US CPI data for May is crucial for assessing the price transmission effects of the Trump administration's tariff policies, with expectations of a potential increase in year-on-year CPI from 2.3% to 2.5% [1] - The impact of tariffs is becoming more evident in the commodity sector, with significant price increases expected in audio equipment, clothing, new cars, and home appliances, while retail price hikes indicate accumulating transmission pressures [3] - There is a fundamental divide within the Federal Reserve regarding the assessment of tariff impacts, with differing views on whether the effects are persistent or one-time shocks, contributing to uncertainty around interest rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The May CPI data may signify the end of the "pre-tariff era" inflation model, as the depletion of corporate inventories could lead to clearer cost transmission paths in the coming months [4] - The bond and currency markets are closely linked to the CPI release, with upcoming treasury auctions testing market pricing of inflation expectations, and potential movements in the dollar index and gold prices being monitored [3] - The divergence in consumer spending patterns, particularly in services showing deflationary signs, may temporarily suppress overall inflation despite rising prices in certain goods [3]

北京时间周三20:30，美国劳工统计局将公布5月消费者价格指数（CPI） 报告。人们将密切关注这些数 据，看看美国总统特朗普的关税是否开始对消费者价格产生影响。芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比曾警告称， 4月的通胀报告可能是关税导致通胀上升前的最后一丝平静。 经济学家的中值预测显示，美国5月整体CPI环比增速将维持在0.2%，同比增速则从上个月触及的四年 低点——2.3%上升至2.5%；剔除波动较大的食品和能源类别后的核心CPI环比增速可能从4月的0.2%升 至0.3%，同比增速预计从2.8%上升至2.9%，这将扭转今年以来的下行趋势。 预测人士表示，美国5月核心通胀可能回升，反映的是关税传导给主要进口商品带来的温和影响，而机 票等部分服务价格则将收窄涨幅或直接下跌。 潘西恩宏观经济咨询公司经济学家塞缪尔·汤姆斯（Samuel Tombs）和奥利弗·艾伦（Oliver Allen）在报 告中指出："5月仅有少数商品价格可能因新关税上涨——6月情况将不同——而部分非必需服务提供商 可能降价或维持低价以支撑需求。" 商品通胀抬头，服务价格疲软 经济学家一直关注关税成本将如何传导给消费者。截至4月，CPI报告显示影响微乎其微 ...

Core Insights - The European banking sector has spent over €1.1 billion on severance packages for senior employees since 2018, indicating significant restructuring within the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Expenditures - Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Santander have collectively paid nearly €850 million in severance to their top executives from 2018 to 2024 [1] - Other banks, including Société Générale, BNP Paribas, Barclays, and UBS, have paid a total of €275 million in severance to senior employees during the same period [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - The substantial severance payments highlight the extent of major restructuring plans implemented by large European banks like Deutsche Bank and HSBC [1] - Other banks are attempting to reshape their investment banking operations to adapt to changing market demands [1]

点击蓝字，关注我们 5月通胀报告出炉之际，投资者正密切关注特朗普总统加征关税是否影响消费者支付的迹 象。 亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克最近也表达了同样的担忧，他表示，关税政策的频繁变动"让我们更难断 言关税带来的价格上涨只是一次性事件"。 市场普遍预期美联储将在下周政策会议上维持利率不变。 5月消费者价格指数(CPI)预计将显示价格涨幅较4月略有加快。这份定于周三发布的通胀报告出炉之 际，投资者正密切关注特朗普总统加征关税是否影响消费者支付的迹象。 彭博数据显示，5月整体通胀率预计将从4月的2.3%微升至2.4%，后者是2021年2月以来最低年化涨 幅。 环比价格预计上涨0.2%，与4月涨幅持平。剔除波动较大的食品和能源成本后，5月核心CPI同 比预计上涨2.9%，略高于4月的2.8%;核心CPI环比涨幅预计为0.3%，高于4月的0.2%。 该报告反映的时间段恰逢特朗普"解放日"关税宣言冲击市场和企业的约一个月后。虽然多项报复性 关税已被暂停，但针对多数国家10%的基础关税仍然有效。 墨西哥和加拿大仍面临与芬太尼相关的关税，钢铁、铝和汽车等行业的专项关税也保持不变。对中 国商品的关税仍维持高位，实际税率徘徊在30 ...

Core Points - The "Big and Beautiful" bill promoted by President Trump includes a controversial tax provision (Section 899) aimed at foreign investors, which has faced strong opposition from multinational corporations [1][2] - Executives from around 70 global companies are lobbying against this tax plan, warning it could threaten millions of American jobs [2][3] - The provision allows the U.S. to impose additional taxes of up to 20% on companies from countries with punitive tax policies, potentially affecting a wide range of foreign entities [2][4] Group 1 - The tax provision could lead to a significant reduction in foreign investment in the U.S., with concerns that it may force many multinational companies to close their U.S. operations, jeopardizing approximately 8.4 million jobs [2][3] - The International Bankers Association, representing top global banks, is advocating for a delay and revision of the tax plan to protect international investments in the U.S. [3][4] - The provision is seen as a negotiation tool by the Trump administration, aimed at increasing leverage in trade discussions with other countries [3][6] Group 2 - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Section 899 could generate $116 billion in tax revenue over the next decade, but the overall bill may increase U.S. debt by $2.4 trillion by 2034 [4] - Financial institutions like Goldman Sachs suggest that European companies may consider re-listing in the U.S. as a strategy to mitigate the impact of the tax, although tax experts warn this may not be a straightforward solution [5][6] - The provision could exert downward pressure on the U.S. dollar and diminish the motivation for foreign investment, affecting both U.S. and foreign companies significantly [5][6]

法国巴黎银行表示，押注长期美国国债收益率上升速度将继续高于短期国债的投资者有遭受损失的风 险。法国巴黎银行驻纽约的美国利率策略主管Guneet Dhingra表示，30年期美国国债的价格已经反映了 财政状况恶化，如果招标需求强劲或赤字担忧缓解，其价格可能会反弹。有理由在当前水平买入这些债 券。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current trend in the U.S. Treasury market, particularly the steepening trade, is seen as a potential risk, with significant bets on long-term yields rising faster than short-term yields, which could lead to painful outcomes for investors [2][5]. Group 1: Market Trends - Data from BNP Paribas indicates that the market's bias towards steepening trades has reached a ten-year high, signaling potential danger [2]. - Since early April, long-term bond yields have been on the rise, with the 30-year Treasury yield peaking at 5.15% on May 22, 2023, before retreating to around 4.912% [2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Concerns are growing regarding upcoming Treasury auctions, with each auction now perceived as a risk event, where a weak auction could lead to market turmoil [5]. - Despite fears of a deteriorating fiscal situation, demand for 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions has remained relatively strong, contradicting the panic over foreign investors selling U.S. debt [5]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - BNP Paribas suggests using options-based trading strategies to bet on long-term rates outperforming short-term rates in a generally declining interest rate environment, viewing the 30-year Treasury as having buying value [5].

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming U.S. Treasury auctions are increasingly scrutinized as indicators of domestic and international investor demand for U.S. debt and dollar assets, especially in light of recent fiscal policies and trade tensions [2][4]. Group 1: Auction Details - The U.S. Treasury will auction $58 billion in three-year notes on Tuesday, $39 billion in ten-year notes on Wednesday, and $22 billion in thirty-year notes on Thursday [4]. - Recent trends show that the yield on long-term U.S. bonds has hovered around 5%, with the 30-year bond yield reaching 4.97%, close to its highest level since 2023 [4][6]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Concerns - Concerns are rising among investors regarding the U.S. fiscal deficit, which has reached 120% of GDP, and the potential impact of President Trump's policies on inflation and global growth [4][5]. - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that if investors lose confidence in the dollar and U.S. debt, it could pose significant issues for all market participants needing financing [5]. Group 3: Short vs. Long-Term Debt Demand - Demand for short-term U.S. debt remains robust, with indirect bids from foreign central banks accounting for 62% of the total issuance in recent auctions [6]. - In contrast, the 10-year and 30-year bond auctions are expected to face challenges, with the latter anticipated to be particularly weak due to global demand issues for long-term bonds [7][8]. Group 4: Political Influences on Demand - The political landscape, particularly Trump's proposed "Big and Beautiful" plan, is influencing investor sentiment, with potential for increased taxes on foreign entities perceived as having unfair tax policies [9]. - Analysts suggest that the recent rise in yields may attract buyers to the 30-year bonds, despite their current unpopularity [8].