业内分析指出，锌铟等小金属价格上行、镍矿等品种海外供给收缩为有色金属行业提供直接支撑，全球 铝产业合作项目落地与美欧钢铝贸易关系缓和的预期，进一步利好工业金属领域的需求释放，叠加国内 有色金属产量稳步增长夯实行业发展根基，行业整体供需格局持续优化，各细分品种迎来轮动向好的发 展态势。 有色ETF银华（159871）紧密跟踪中证有色金属指数。该指数选取涉及有色金属采选、有色金属冶炼与 加工业务的上市公司，反映有色金属类相关上市公司的整体表现，前十大重仓股包含紫金矿业、洛阳钼 业、北方稀土等龙头企业，权重合计46.48%。 消息面上，2月25日，国内锌铟板块行情走高，24日上海钢联数据显示，国内粗铟中间价报4600元/公 斤、精铟中间价报4700元/公斤，均较节前上涨300元/公斤；印尼莫罗瓦利镍矿中心发生山体滑坡影响 当地镍矿产出，且该国2026年镍矿配额预计2.5-2.6亿吨，较2025年的3.79亿吨降幅超34%，全球镍供给 端收缩态势凸显。2月24日，阿联酋环球铝业与美国铝业、世纪铝业达成合作协议，推进俄克拉荷马州 铝中心建设，当地原铝项目预计于今年年底启动；欧盟官员预计美国将在未来几周降低对含钢铝加工产 ...

2月25日，A股市场早盘震荡拉升，三大指数均涨超1%，截至午间收盘，沪指涨1.20%，深成指涨 1.47%，站上14400点，创业板指涨1.43%。沪深两市半日成交额1.52万亿，较上个交易日放量104亿。 盘面上，涨价题材股轮番活跃，小金属、贵金属等有色板块走高，华锡有色、云南锗业等多股涨停；农 药、化工股延续涨势，金浦钛业、川金诺、六国化工等多股封板；油气股拉升走高，通源石油、洲际油 气涨停或涨超10%；锂矿股震荡走高，永杉锂业、大中矿业等封涨停；半导体产业链盘中震荡走强，设 备、材料方向领涨，富创精密、明阳电路涨超10%； 下跌方面，影视院线板块继续调整，横店影视连续两日跌停；AI应用概念走势较弱；存储芯片板块盘 初下挫；光模块、光纤板块部分个股回调。 展望后市，中原证券认为，综合假期内外盘表现及最新宏观动态，市场短期调整压力已得到部分释放， 但上行斜率将趋于平缓，指数层面大概率呈现宽幅震荡、结构分化的格局。 热门板块 1、有色金属板块走高 小金属、贵金属等有色板块走高，华锡有色、云南锗业等多股涨停。 点评：中银证券发布研报称，进入2026年，随着市场进入牛市第二阶段"盈利驱动上涨阶段"，在"反内 卷" ...

Group 1: Steel Industry - The steel sector has shown significant growth, with major stocks like Baosteel and Lingang Steel experiencing increases of over 10% [1][2] - The overall market for steel is reported at 10,530.34, reflecting a 5.27% increase [1] - Notable performers include Angang Steel with a 9.92% rise and Shandong Steel with a 9.76% increase [1] Group 2: Rare Earth and Permanent Magnet Sector - The rare earth permanent magnet concept has gained strength, with stocks like Baogang and Zhongse reaching their daily limit [2] - Significant increases were noted in stocks such as San Chuan Wisdom, which rose by over 10%, and Northern Rare Earth, which increased by over 7% [2] - The overall market for rare earths is reported at 4,007.45, with a 3.35% increase [2] Group 3: Nonferrous Metals Sector - The nonferrous metals sector has seen a substantial rise, with companies like Huaxi Nonferrous and Yunnan Zhenye hitting their daily limits [3] - The market for nonferrous metals is reported at 31,769.06, reflecting a 3.02% increase [3] - Key stocks include Huaxi Nonferrous and Yunnan Nonferrous, both showing a 10.01% increase [3] Group 4: Precious Metals - Precious metals have shown positive movement, with gold priced at 5,189.29, reflecting a 0.88% increase, and silver at 89.11, with a 2.21% rise [4]

Group 1 - The rare earth permanent magnet concept is rising, with significant price increases in heavy rare earths; Yttrium has reached $850 per kilogram and Dysprosium $1,100 per kilogram, marking the highest levels since 2015 due to ongoing supply concerns [1] - Precious metals and industrial metals prices are generally increasing, driven by multiple factors including the reshaping of monetary credit patterns, rising U.S. fiscal deficit rates, and low gold reserves in China, which are expected to push gold prices higher in the long term [1] - The copper price is expected to remain strong in the short term due to solid fundamental support, with significant production disruptions in copper mines and tight non-U.S. inventories, alongside initiatives to expand national copper strategic reserves in China [1] Group 2 - As of January 30, 2026, the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) includes 50 prominent securities in the nonferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index account for 49.87% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Northern Rare Earth [2]

长江证券分析认为，从国内场景看，基建项目加速落地，电网升级、光伏电站建设等工程密集开工，带 动锡镍等工业金属需求刚性增长；新能源汽车、AI算力基础设施等新兴领域产能快速恢复，单台AI服 务器用锡量远超传统设备，成为需求新增长点。海外市场同样传来积极信号，全球央行宽松预期延续， 欧美"再工业化"进程推动制造业复苏，带动金属出口需求稳步回升，为国内下游需求形成补充。 有色矿业ETF招商（159690）所跟踪的有色矿业指数是一只高度聚焦于有色金属产业链最上游——矿产 资源开采环节的指数。当有色金属价格（如铜价、金价、锂价）上涨时，上游企业的利润会直接、快速 地提升，因此有色矿业指数表现出更强的价格弹性，贝塔值更高，在商品牛市或通胀环境中进攻性十 足。 2月25日，有色板块延续大涨，有色矿业ETF招商（159690）涨3.31%，成份股云南锗业、华锡有色涨 停，锡业股份、北方稀土、驰宏锌锗等涨幅居前。 商品市场看，贵金属价格持续上涨，现货黄金日内涨幅扩大至1%，现报5183.62美元/盎司。现货白银站 上88美元/盎司，日内涨1.3%。 申万宏源分析认为，近期贵金属表现偏强，核心驱动源于三重逻辑：一是市场对美国财政可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector continues to show strong performance, with significant inflows into related ETFs and notable gains in key stocks within the sector [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The non-ferrous ETF (159876) saw a price increase of 3.18% yesterday and an additional 2.14% today, recovering above the 20-day moving average [1]. - As of the latest update, the non-ferrous ETF has received a net subscription of 7.8 million units, with a net inflow of 7.01 million yuan yesterday [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Leading stocks in the rare earth sector performed exceptionally well, with North Rare Earth rising over 5%, Shenghe Resources up more than 4%, and both China Rare Earth and Zhong Rare Metals increasing over 3% [3]. - Yunnan Zinc Industry hit the daily limit, while Huaxi Nonferrous and Chihong Zinc & Germanium rose over 6%, leading the index's strong performance [3]. Group 3: Market Drivers - In the strategic metals sector, there are positive developments as the U.S. aims to establish transparent pricing for key minerals like germanium, gallium, antimony, and tungsten to attract allies and protect domestic mining companies [4]. - Citigroup has a bullish short-term outlook on copper prices, predicting they will reach $14,000 per ton in the next three months, with an average price forecast of $13,000 per ton by 2026 [5]. - UBS anticipates gold prices could reach $6,200 per ounce in the coming months, driven by persistent factors that have supported its strong performance over the past year [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - According to Zhongyin Securities, entering 2026, the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to enter a second phase of a bull market driven by profit growth, with strong cyclical attributes likely to be realized [6]. - The comprehensive coverage of the non-ferrous ETF includes copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better capture of the sector's beta trends across different economic cycles [7].

今日（2月25日）有色金属板块延续强势表现，板块热门ETF——有色ETF（159876）继昨日场内价格 大涨3.18%之后，今日再涨2.14%，盘中收复20日均线。 资金积极进场抢筹！截至发稿，有色ETF（159876）获资金实时净申购780万份，昨日亦获资金净流入 701万元。 成份股方面，稀土龙头表现亮眼，北方稀土涨超5%，盛和资源涨逾4%，中国稀土、中稀有色涨逾3%。 此外，云南锗业涨停，华锡有色、驰宏锌锗涨超6%，涨幅居前，引领指数亮眼表现。 | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 云南播业 | 10.01% | | 有色全属 | 小金属 | 其他小会展 | 264 Z | 12.30亿 | | 2 | 表馆单位 | 6.43% | m | 有色全座 | 小金属 | 其他小金属 | 3484Z | 2.49亿 | | 3 | 他宏梓锴 | 6.31% | 1 | 有色金属 | 工业全属 | ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Metals Industry**: The records discuss various segments of the metals industry, including precious metals, industrial metals, energy metals, and strategic metals, highlighting their current status and future outlooks [1][5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Investment Drivers**: Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are driving the safe-haven and anti-inflation attributes of precious metals. Central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and geopolitical risks are long-term support factors. For instance, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with a projected global central bank purchase of approximately 683 tons in 2025 [1][3]. - **Price Trends**: Gold prices have stabilized above $5,000 per ounce, with expectations to hold around $5,100 per ounce. The valuation of gold stocks remains low, with companies like Shandong Gold International and Zhongjin Gold being recommended for investment [3][10]. - **Market Performance**: During the Spring Festival, gold and silver prices rebounded significantly, with gold surpassing 5,100 yuan per gram and silver exceeding $85 per ounce, influenced by geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic indicators [2]. Industrial Metals - **Demand Shift**: The demand structure for industrial metals is shifting from traditional sectors to electric infrastructure, renewable energy, and AI-driven data centers. This transition is expected to sustain an upward cycle for the next two to three years, with copper and aluminum valuations being attractive at around 10 times earnings [5]. - **Supply Constraints**: The supply side faces challenges such as depletion of high-grade mines, geopolitical risks, and insufficient exploration investments, leading to tight supply conditions [5]. Energy Metals - **Market Outlook**: Lithium inventories are decreasing amid strong demand, leading to a positive outlook for lithium prices. Cobalt and nickel are benefiting from quota and supply restrictions, while strategic metals like rare earths, tungsten, and uranium have solid long-term fundamentals despite short-term price corrections [6][12]. Steel Industry - **Current Challenges**: The steel industry is experiencing a downturn, with many companies reducing or halting production. Attention is needed on supply-side policies and support from the real estate sector. A potential improvement in demand is expected post-spring commencement [7][32]. - **Profit Projections**: The total profit for the steel industry is projected to be around 7 billion yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 112 times [1][32]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - **Tariff Implications**: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that previous tariffs imposed by the former president were invalid, but details on refunds remain unclear. Future fluctuations in import tariffs may impact precious metal prices, with expectations of upward price movements in 2026, albeit less volatile than in 2025 [1][7]. Strategic Metals - **Price Trends**: Recent price increases for light rare earths, such as neodymium oxide, have been noted, with a 12% increase year-on-year. Heavy rare earths, however, are experiencing price declines due to weaker demand [20][21]. - **Supply Control**: Future supply is expected to be tightly controlled, with significant reductions in mining and refining quotas anticipated, which will maintain upward pressure on prices [23][25]. Recommendations - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies such as Shandong Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, and various firms in the lithium and nickel sectors are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their favorable market positions and growth prospects [3][10][12][19]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the metals industry.

商品资源大时代，下一个战略品种在哪里？20260223 摘要 地缘政治扰动和中国企业出海投资意愿减弱导致全球有色矿产资源供给 刚性，叠加降息周期和全球经济复苏，共同推动有色金属价格上涨。全 球性品种因受益于全球供需关系改善，更具投资价值，尤其是在制造业 和工业企稳复苏的背景下。 电力板块因中国电价竞争力强、全产业链成本较低、电力公司成本控制 和盈利能力优异而值得重点推荐。电解铝行业虽依赖进口矿石，但国内 产能限制约束了供应，出口铝材占比高，通过锁定冶炼环节利润，实现 了上下游双重获利。 化工行业预计 2025 年下半年触底反弹，供需变化将带来价格弹性。中 国化工行业已取得较强低价权，未来将向高端化升级。制冷剂行业受环 保政策配额制影响，企业集中度提高，产品提价增加盈利，预计三美股 份业绩将显著增长。 铬盐市场因生产过程受限，下游应用于民用、军用航空等战略领域，需 求有望增长。硫磺市场因油气回收减少导致供应受限，而电池级硫酸镍 生产增加需求，价格持续上涨，且趋势具有长期性。 Q&A 资源品市场在 2025 年的行情表现如何？有哪些特征和变化？ 2025 年资源品市场表现强劲，尤其是有色金属板块，包括金、银、铜、 ...

叶如祯 长江证券分析师: 尊敬的各位投资人，欢迎大家下午收听由这个长安金属煤炭举办的如何展望节后金属煤炭 行情的这个专题会议。那么核心还是节中的话，整体的这个，包括海外资产，包括其实商 品资产，也都出现了比较积极的这个大幅的这个波动。所以，这个长安金属煤炭联合还是 希望在节前去做一个这个观点的展望，以及整个 2~3 月份的这个配置的这样的一个策略。 我这边是这个贵金属叶如珍，然后主要是先更新一下这个黄金和白银的这个假期内的这个 情境。那么假期中，其实核心的线索主要还是这个特朗普和最高法院的这个司法战，触发 的这个避险情绪。 那么带动的贵金属的行情进一步的这个上行，那么触发的这个时点，其实主要是源于 2 月 20 日，这个美国最高法院对这个特朗普裁定这个从动无无权限。在非紧急特殊状态下实施 全面广泛这个性关税。那么在这个裁决之后，特朗普又基于这个 1974 年的这个贸易法案 的第 122 条。立即这个征收了这个 10%的这个全球的关税，那么有效期为 150 天。这一 来一回，直接我们讲导致了这个美元和美债利率的走弱，那么从而，一一方面催生了这个 整体这个美国经济预期的扰动。 另外一方面，还是主要是这个贸易情绪的 ...