Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rebound, with a focus on the cyclical elasticity of both thermal coal and coking coal prices, which are currently at historical lows, providing room for recovery [5][15] - The report outlines a four-step process for the upward movement of thermal coal prices, including the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching a breakeven point for coal and power companies [4][15] - The report emphasizes that the overall investment logic remains unchanged, driven by a dual influence of tightening supply and increasing demand, particularly during the heating season [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity. The price recovery is expected to follow a specific process involving the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching a breakeven price of around 750 RMB per ton [4][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential target prices of 1608 RMB to 2064 RMB depending on thermal coal price movements [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业 and 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, and 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, and 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份 and 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源 and 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.6 percentage points, with notable gains from companies like 盘江股份 and 山西焦化 [10][25] - The report provides various market indicators, including port prices for thermal coal at 692 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight increase, and coking coal prices remaining stable at 1800 RMB per ton [21][23]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 美股煤炭指数为何一马当先？ 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary] 年初至今，Wind 美国煤炭指数累计上涨 30.6%，远超 SW 煤炭指数涨幅，引发市场关注。实 际上，我们发现由于指数编制原因，美股煤炭指数亮眼的涨幅更多是铀业务等核燃料相关公司 贡献，而主要美国煤炭股今年以来平均涨幅仅 5.5%，不过这并不影响该平均涨幅在 2025 年高 达 40.4%的事实。究其原因，主要是美国 AI 缺电及关税强化本土制造业回流所带来的需求预 期向好，推动资金布局低估值煤炭标的。我们认为美国煤炭行业需求增长有望为国内供需带来 外生冲击，一定程度打开国内煤价弹性想象空间，进而为国内煤炭板块提供上涨助燃剂。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 肖勇 赵超 叶如祯 庄越 韦思宇 SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BU ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in coal auction listings in Mongolia for 2025, with a total of 40.8832 million tons listed, up by 14.272 million tons. However, the transaction volume is slightly lower than in 2024, at 21.792 million tons, down by 0.576 million tons [2] - The report emphasizes the performance of specific companies, recommending investments in China Coal Energy (H+A), Yanzhou Coal Mining (H+A), China Shenhua Energy (H+A), and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry. It also highlights companies focusing on smart mining, such as Keda Control, and those undergoing turnaround, like China Qinfa [3][7] - The report notes that the core port for coal transactions remains Ganqimaodu, contributing 83% of the total transaction volume [2] Summary by Sections Energy Prices Overview - As of January 30, 2026, Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, up by $4.81 (7.3%) from the previous week. WTI crude oil futures settled at $65.21 per barrel, up by $4.14 (6.78%) [1] - Natural gas prices showed mixed trends, with Northeast Asia LNG spot prices at $11.68 per million British thermal units, down by $0.13 (-1.11%). The Dutch TTF gas futures settled at €40.65 per megawatt-hour, up by €1.28 (3.24%) [1] - Coal prices increased, with European ARA port coal prices at $101.50 per ton, up by $3.00 (3.05%), and Newcastle port coal prices at $116.75 per ton, up by $5.25 (4.71%) [1] Auction Performance - The report indicates that ETT led the auction with a transaction of 12.5696 million tons, followed by small TT and ER with 5.3632 million tons and 3.1296 million tons, respectively. The report also notes that coking coal transactions totaled 13.6192 million tons, down by 3.0656 million tons, while thermal coal transactions increased by 3.584 million tons to 8.1728 million tons [6] Key Stocks - The report provides a detailed table of recommended stocks, including: - China Coal Energy (601898.SH) with an EPS forecast of 1.21 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 11.32 - China Shenhua Energy (601088.SH) with an EPS forecast of 2.56 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 16.38 - Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188.SH) with an EPS forecast of 0.99 for 2025 and a PE ratio of 14.86 [7]

证券研究报告 印度宣布焦煤为战略性矿产， 看好焦煤弹性 ——煤炭行业周报（1月第4周） 2026年2月1日 行业评级：看好 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收涨，跑赢沪深300指数：截至2026年1月30日，本周中信煤炭行业收涨3.98%，沪深300指数上涨0.08%，跑赢沪深300指数3.9个百分点。全板块整周30只股价上涨，6 只下跌，1只持平。陕西黑猫涨幅最高，整周涨幅为14.5%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2026年1月23日-2026年1月29日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为758万吨，周环比增加0.9%，年同比增加59.6%。其中，动力煤周日 均销量较上周增加1.5%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少2.7%，无烟煤销量较上周增加0.4%。截至2026年1月29日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为753万吨，周环比增加1.5%，年同比增加 56.5%；重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2225万吨，周环比减少1.5%，年同比减少25.2%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report conducts a weekly tracking of private exchangeable bonds (private EB) from January 26 to January 30, 2026 [1]. Group 2: New Project Information - Shanghai Qichen Enterprise Management Co., Ltd.'s 2026 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors has been accepted by the exchange, with an intended issuance scale of 500 million yuan and the underlying stock being GCL Integrated Energy Co., Ltd. (002015.SZ). The lead underwriter is Soochow Securities, and the exchange update date is January 28, 2026 [1]. Group 3: Project Status Summary | Bond Name | Lead Underwriter | Scale (100 million yuan) | Underlying Stock | Project Status | Update Date | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Fuda Holding Group Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | Zhongde Securities | 12 | Fuda Co., Ltd. | Approved | 2026/1/5 | | Nanshan Group Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | Jinyuan United Securities | 30 | Nanshan Aluminum Co., Ltd. | Approved | 2025/12/25 | | Sichuan Jiuzhou Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of science - and - technology innovation exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | CITIC Securities | 10 | Sichuan Jiuzhou Electric Appliance Co., Ltd. | Approved | 2025/12/5 | | Origen Technology Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | CITIC Construction Securities | 3.5 | Yongxin Co., Ltd. | Approved | 2025/12/5 | | New Hope Group Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of science - and - technology innovation exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | CICC | 45 | New Hope Group Co., Ltd. | Approved | 2025/11/27 | | Hangzhou Iron & Steel Group Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | Zheshang Securities | 10 | Hangzhou Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. | Approved | 2025/11/7 | | Guangdong Guangxin Holdings Group Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | CITIC Securities | 30 | Shengyi Technology Co., Ltd. | Approved | 2025/10/30 | | Fujian State - owned Assets Management Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | Guoxin Securities | 2 | Fuzhou Focal Optics Co., Ltd. | Approved | 2025/10/29 | | Beijing Harmony Hengyuan Technology Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | Hongta Securities | 6 | Sichuan Shuangma Cement Co., Ltd. | Approved | 2025/7/18 | | Shudao Investment Group Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | CITIC Securities, Hongxin Securities | 50 | Sichuan Road & Bridge Co., Ltd. | Approved | 2025/4/30 | | China Pingmei Shenma Group Co., Ltd. 2024 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | Ping An Securities | 10 | Shenma Industrial Co., Ltd., Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. | Approved | 2025/4/29 | | Wanan Group Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | Zheshang Securities | 6 | Wanan Technology Co., Ltd. | Approved | 2025/4/25 | | Inner Mongolia Huolinhe Coal Industry Group Co., Ltd. 2024 private placement of carbon - neutral green exchangeable corporate bonds | Ping An Securities | 5.4 | Inner Mongolia Electric Power Investment Energy Co., Ltd. | Approved | 2025/4/25 | | Huabang Life Science Co., Ltd. 2026 private placement of science - and - technology innovation exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | Huatai United Securities, Southwest Securities | 10 | Kaisheng New Materials Co., Ltd. | Feedback received | 2026/1/23 | | Hainan农垦 Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | CITIC Securities | 21 | Hainan Rubber Industry Group Co., Ltd. | Feedback received | 2025/12/8 | | Strait Innovation Internet Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | Dongguan Securities | 3 | Fengzhushou Co., Ltd. | Feedback received | 2025/11/13 | | Guangzhou Intelligent Equipment Industry Group Co., Ltd. 2025 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | CICC | 10 | Guangri Co., Ltd. | Feedback received | 2025/9/26 | | Shanghai Qichen Enterprise Management Co., Ltd. 2026 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | Soochow Securities | 5 | GCL Integrated Energy Co., Ltd. | Accepted | 2026/1/28 | | Northern Lingyun Industry Group Co., Ltd. 2026 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | CITIC Construction Securities | 5 | Lingyun Industry Co., Ltd. | Accepted | 2026/1/28 | | Shenzhen Huaqiang Group Co., Ltd. 2026 private placement of exchangeable corporate bonds for professional investors | Jinyuan United Securities | 24 | Shenzhen Huaqiang Co., Ltd. | Accepted | 2026/1/22 | [3] Group 4: Related Research Reports - "Private Exchangeable Bond Tracking - Private EB Weekly Tracking (20260119 - 20260123)" - 2026 - 01 - 25 - "Private Exchangeable Bond Tracking - Private EB Weekly Tracking (20260112 - 20260116)" - 2026 - 01 - 18 - "Private Exchangeable Bond Tracking - Private EB Weekly Tracking (20260105 - 20260109)" - 2026 - 01 - 11 - "Private Exchangeable Bond Tracking - Private EB Weekly Tracking (20251229 - 20251231)" - 2026 - 01 - 04 - "Private Exchangeable Bond Tracking - Private EB Weekly Tracking (20251222 - 20251226)" - 2025 - 12 - 29 [4]

| [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-01 | [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业周报（2026 年第 5 期） 25 年行业利润下降 42%，26 年盈利有望改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]沈涛 SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 SFC CE No. AUS961 010-59136686 shentao@gf.com.cn 分析师： 安鹏 SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 SFC CE No. BNW176 021-38003693 anpeng@gf.com.cn 分析师： 宋炜 SAC 执证号：S0260518050002 SFC CE No. BMV636 021-38003691 songwei@gf.com.cn -10% -2% 6% 14% 22% 30% 02/25 04/25 06/25 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a favorable supply-demand dynamic in the coal market, with expectations of stable to increasing coal prices due to ongoing high demand and tightening supply conditions [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic investments in coal companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, particularly in light of the anticipated recovery in coal prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 19,847.47 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 19,430.80 billion yuan [2]. 2. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Yancoal Energy are highlighted for their robust operational performance and strategic growth plans [12][13]. - China Shenhua is expected to achieve a net profit of 495-545 billion yuan in 2025, while Shanxi Coking Coal anticipates a significant decline in profits due to market pressures [8]. 3. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen a slight increase, with the average price at the Qinhuangdao port reported at 698 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8 yuan [8]. - The international coal price has also risen, with Newcastle coal futures closing at 111.75 USD per ton, marking a daily increase of 2.43% [8]. 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces in China reached 6.648 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 36.48% [8]. - Supply constraints are expected as many private coal mines prepare for seasonal shutdowns, leading to a reduction in overall coal supply [8]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend policies and growth potential, such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and others, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in coal prices [8][12]. - It also highlights the potential for companies like Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma to rebound as market conditions improve [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][7] Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading coal enterprise in East China, focusing on a diversified strategy that emphasizes coal production while expanding into coal chemical, power generation, and aggregate businesses [6][8] - The report highlights the certainty of production increases from the resumption of the Xinhui Mine and the upcoming production of the Taohutu Mine, which are expected to significantly contribute to the company's profitability [9][10] - The company is expected to enhance shareholder returns through a planned dividend distribution of no less than 35% of the net profit attributable to the parent company for the years 2025-2027 [10][12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huabei Mining is a major coal enterprise in East China, with a focus on coal mining, processing, and chemical production, supported by a strong state-owned background [6][17] - The company has a total share capital of 2,693.26 million shares and a market capitalization of approximately 33,827.33 million yuan [1] Business Growth and Diversification - The company is actively pursuing a multi-faceted growth strategy, with coal production as the core, while also expanding into coal chemicals, power generation, and aggregates [8][9] - The Xinhui Mine, with a capacity of 3 million tons/year, is expected to resume production, contributing significantly to net profits in the coming years [29] - The Taohutu Mine, with a capacity of 8 million tons/year, is set to begin production in 2026, further enhancing the company's output and profitability [32] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 429.81 billion, 477.28 billion, and 508.09 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 14.95 billion, 26.24 billion, and 41.02 billion yuan [12][7] - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 22.6X, 12.9X, and 8.2X for the respective years, indicating potential value for investors [12][7] Capital Expenditure and Shareholder Returns - The company is expected to enter a phase of reduced capital expenditure as major projects near completion, which will enhance its ability to return value to shareholders [10][12] - The planned dividend policy reflects a commitment to shareholder returns, with a minimum payout ratio set at 35% of net profits [10][12]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI), with seasonal demand during the "peak winter" leading to a 1.3% increase in coal mining and washing prices, contributing to a 0.2% rise in PPI over three consecutive months [5][6] - The coal price is expected to stabilize due to its high correlation with PPI, with a potential low point for coal prices in 2025, influenced by policies aimed at reducing excessive competition [5] - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation driven by energy security demands, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5][6] - Despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs are expected to support coal prices, which are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend [5] Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of January 30, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 692 CNY/ton, up 7 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 61 CNY/ton [3][31] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.329 million tons, down 81,000 tons week-on-week but up 1.77 million tons year-on-year [3][42] - The coal inventory index is slightly down to 180.4, indicating a minor decrease in coal stocks [3][53] Coking Coal - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port is stable at 1800 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 340 CNY/ton [4][72] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 771,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [4][71] - The coking coal inventory stands at 2.672 million tons, down 7.2% week-on-week [4][71] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily consumption of the six major power plants has decreased to 847,000 tons, down 3.7% week-on-week but up 27.8% year-on-year [42][43] - The inventory of the six major power plants is 13.185 million tons, down 0.6% week-on-week [43][44] - The methanol and urea operating rates are at 91.2% and 88.3%, respectively, indicating a slight increase [47][48] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [6] - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy, are also highlighted [6] - Firms with global resource scarcity attributes, like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, are recommended for investment [6]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Industry Co., Ltd., anticipates a significant decline in net profit for the year 2025, primarily due to falling coal prices, with projections indicating a decrease of approximately 81.62% to 83.74% compared to the previous year [2][3][6]. Group 1: Performance Forecast - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 382 million to 432 million yuan for 2025, which represents a decrease of 19.18 billion to 19.68 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The projected net profit, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is estimated to be between 447 million to 496 million yuan, reflecting a reduction of 18.44 billion to 18.93 billion yuan year-on-year [2][3]. Group 2: Previous Year Performance - In the previous year, the total profit was 3.458 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.350 billion yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.340 billion yuan [4]. - The earnings per share for the previous year were reported at 0.9616 yuan [5]. Group 3: Reasons for Performance Change - The primary reason for the anticipated decline in net profit is the downward trend in the prices of the company's main coal products [6].