证券研究报告 重申全年看好港资房企，关注港资商业 运营商 地产行业周报 行业评级：地产 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所地产团队 2026年2月8日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 1 核心摘要 2 周度观点：节后楼市走向仍为板块短期走势关键。本周申万地产板块微涨0.01%，当前市场对后续板块看法及楼市走向仍存分歧。部分投 资者认为在缺乏超预期政策支持背景下，楼市企稳仍存在不确定性，但同时又担心踏空板块上涨行情。我们认为在大盘波动加大、二手 房成交淡季不淡、房企业绩压力提前释放等背景下，短期板块向下风险有限，对楼市企稳存担忧但又担心踏空的投资者，我们认为可适 度配置历史包袱较轻、拿地及产品力强的优质房企，若后续楼市逐步企稳回升，优质房企资金及拿地能力强亦有望率先受益，若楼市持 续底部震荡，相关企业亦具备基本面支撑。 重申全年看好港资房企，关注港资商业运营商。本周新鸿基地产、恒基地产、信和置业上涨1.11%、2.76%、2.8%。重申全年看好港资房 企，我们在1月发布专题报告《香港商业地产逐步触底，标杆商业开发运营商梳理》，我们认为中国香港商业地产现触底信号，核心区写 字楼租金、空置率边际改善，零售物业租金降幅收窄， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significance of Shanghai's new policy to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental housing, indicating a strong signal in a declining market. The policy aims to link demand for affordable housing with improvement needs, potentially activating the market by directing purchasing power to higher-priced new and second-hand homes [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate is akin to investing in economic trends. The competitive landscape is expected to improve, benefiting leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier cities and select second- and third-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections 1. Shanghai's Housing Acquisition Policy - Shanghai has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental purposes, with pilot areas including Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui, each having distinct acquisition criteria and models [11] - The policy aims to match housing types with talent needs, focusing on low-priced, small-sized properties to stimulate market activity [12] 2. Market Review - The report notes that the real estate index has shown minimal change, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.34 percentage points. A total of 73 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value, while 40 stocks decreased [15] - The top-performing stocks included Jinglan Technology and Qianjing Garden, with significant weekly gains [21] 3. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week leading up to February 6, new housing transactions in 30 cities totaled 131.2 million square meters, a 5.2% decrease from the previous week but a 138.2% increase year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 4.0% increase week-on-week [26] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities totaled 204.5 million square meters, reflecting a 3.5% decrease week-on-week but a 717.5% increase year-on-year [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the recovery potential of quality real estate companies and commercial real estate [2][31]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, with recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market. The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies, predicting that their profit recovery will occur sooner and be more resilient [2][31]. - The report recommends several quality real estate companies and commercial real estate firms, including Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, Greentown China, China Jinmao, and Poly Development, as well as commercial real estate firms like New City Holdings and China Resources Land [2][31]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.974 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.9%. The transaction volume in first and second-tier cities decreased by 3.1%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a significant drop of 39.4% [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home transactions in February increased by 327.2%, with first and second-tier cities up by 347.8% and third and fourth-tier cities up by 168.9% [4][10]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.198 million square meters, also down by 6.9% week-on-week. However, year-to-date transactions showed a 27.4% increase compared to the previous year [10][31]. Inventory and Supply - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 290,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 2.62 times. The total available residential area in these cities was 88.525 million square meters, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.52% [21][31]. Policy and News Tracking - The report highlights significant policy developments, including the acceleration of commercial real estate REITs applications, with over 10 applications submitted to exchanges as of February 6, 2026. Additionally, Shanghai is advancing the acquisition of second-hand homes for rental housing, with pilot areas identified [31][32]. - Various regions, including Tianjin, Sichuan, and Hainan, have adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans to no less than 30% [31][32].

证券日报网讯2月6日，滨江集团（002244）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，辉能科技上市相关信息 敬请留意辉能公司官方信息披露渠道。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in major cities has entered a traditional seasonal downturn, characterized by overall cooling, increasing differentiation, and some bright spots. Supply and demand are contracting simultaneously, with developers showing low enthusiasm for sales and buyers exhibiting strong wait-and-see sentiment, leading to a prominent "look but don't buy" phenomenon [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a cyclical downturn, with new home supply and demand both decreasing significantly. In many cities, new home transaction areas have dropped by 30% to 60% month-on-month, and year-on-year figures show a 20% decline, marking the lowest monthly figure in nearly a year [4]. - Developers are entering a rest period, significantly reducing the scale of new launches, with cities like Shenzhen and Nanjing experiencing supply gaps. The average absorption rate for new projects in Shanghai was only 16% in January [4]. Market Differentiation - Differentiation is evident across various dimensions: - Between cities and within city districts, core first-tier and strong second-tier cities (like Shenzhen and Hangzhou) show slightly higher visitor and subscription activity, while weaker second-tier and suburban areas are experiencing significant cooling [3]. - Product differentiation is notable, with affordable housing and high-end projects performing well, while ordinary improvement and suburban affordable housing continue to struggle [3]. - The second-hand housing market is becoming increasingly dominant, with transaction activity significantly outpacing new homes [3]. Land Market Trends - The land market is characterized by slowed supply, bottom-price transactions, and dominance by state-owned enterprises. Most cities are seeing a decline in transaction volume, with only a few core plots attracting interest, primarily from state-owned and central enterprises [5]. High-End Project Performance - High-end improvement projects in core locations are achieving high absorption rates, with cities like Hangzhou and Tianjin reporting rates of 62% and 68%, respectively. Notable projects include Shanghai's Taikoo Li, which sold 50 out of 60 units on the first day, achieving an 83% absorption rate [7]. Second-Hand Market Activity - In January, the transaction area for second-hand homes in 20 major cities reached approximately 1,483 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 10% and a year-on-year increase of 25%, marking the second-highest level in 13 months [15]. - The second-hand market is showing a trend of stable volume and weak prices, with many cities experiencing price declines, particularly in lower-priced segments [17][20]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its seasonal downturn in February due to the impact of the Spring Festival, with both new and second-hand home transactions likely to decline. However, a recovery is anticipated in March, with the potential for a "small spring" in the market as quality projects are launched [22].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry: Real Estate Key Points - The real estate industry has undergone a deep cleansing of its fundamentals, with positive policy signals expected to gradually restore holdings, leading to valuation elasticity. In January, the second-hand housing market in core cities showed signs of recovery, with increased transaction volumes and decreased listing volumes, optimizing supply-demand relationships and narrowing price declines [1][2][3] - Multiple authoritative media outlets have released positive signals regarding the financial asset attributes of real estate and the cancellation of restrictive measures. Many real estate companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, indicating a period of intensive policy implementation, which enhances the investment value of the real estate sector [3] - The investment strategy for the building materials industry chain should focus on balance and early layout of related opportunities. Global expansion of balance sheets and marginally increasing liquidity in the A-share market support potential excess return opportunities in the building materials sector [1][4] - The A-share market's IPO financing is expected to be at historical average levels, but the second half of the year may see quarterly financing amounts exceeding expectations, which could signal a warning for the technology sector as relative returns may decrease [5] - The current economy is at the end of a Kondratiev wave depression, with non-ferrous metals and commodities being favorable investment options. The adjustment in the real estate market is nearing its end, with potential investment opportunities expected to emerge [6] Additional Insights - The real estate sector is currently in a core configuration window with high win rates and odds. As of Q4 2025, the sector's holdings accounted for approximately 0.43% of stock investment value, indicating a significant underweight that has persisted for 24 quarters [2] - The recovery of the Hong Kong real estate sector serves as a reference for the mainland market, with historical data suggesting that the adjustment in actual housing prices in China has been sufficient, leading to an increase in the sector's win rate [2] - The building materials sector's investment strategy emphasizes early positioning in response to market changes, with a focus on companies with low valuations and strong resource reserves, such as China Trade and Greentown China [4] - The cement industry is highlighted for its potential, with profitability closely tied to capacity utilization rates. Companies like Conch Cement are expected to see significant profit increases if prices rise [10] - The home appliance sector is anticipated to recover as real estate data stabilizes, which will directly boost demand for white goods and kitchen appliances [13] Industry: Building Materials Key Points - The investment strategy for the building materials industry should focus on both expansion and balance, with an emphasis on early positioning in real estate-related opportunities [4] - Companies with low valuations and strong resource reserves, such as China Trade and Greentown China, are recommended for investment [4] - The cement industry is expected to enter a new recovery cycle, with significant profit potential linked to price increases [10] Industry: Home Appliances Key Points - The home appliance sector is nearing the end of its darkest period, with potential investment opportunities arising as real estate data stabilizes and consumer demand is expected to recover [13] - The sector's current low valuations present opportunities for growth, particularly in white goods and kitchen appliances, which are closely tied to real estate performance [13] Additional Insights - Companies like Midea, Haier, and Gree are highlighted for their strong dividend yields, making them attractive investment options [13] - Newer companies in the market, such as Roborock and Ecovacs, are also noted for their competitive positioning and potential for valuation recovery [13]

Core Insights - In 2025, Hangzhou's urban area sold 92 residential land parcels, with only 50 projects launched within the year, indicating a shift towards longer development cycles and a focus on quality over speed [4][5] - Several high-end projects are set to enter the market after the Spring Festival, with significant competition expected among luxury developments [4][5] Group 1: High-End Projects - The Binjiang Water Power New Village project, developed by Binjiang Group, is positioned as a premium offering with a starting price of over 130,000 yuan per square meter and total prices starting at 35 million yuan [5] - The Zhonghai Wanchao Jiuxu project, designed by Zaha Hadid Architects, will feature units priced from over 30 million yuan, with sizes ranging from 233 to 413 square meters [6] - The Aoying Century project in Qiantang Bay has set a record for the highest land price in Xiaoshan, with total prices exceeding 20 million yuan and units ranging from 238 to 388 square meters [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The introduction of new projects in previously stagnant areas, such as the Future Technology City and San Dunbei, is expected to create a new pricing structure and influence future market values [8][9] - The launch of the Runqi Future City project, which is the first unrestricted price new residential project in its area, will face challenges from declining second-hand home prices and competition from nearby new developments [9] - The Huafeng and Puyang areas are seeing a surge in new supply, with multiple projects set to launch in early 2026, indicating a competitive landscape [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emerging trend of luxury home purchases in China's real estate market, highlighting a shift from basic housing needs to a demand for larger, more functional living spaces due to changing family structures and preferences [4][11]. Group 1: Market Trends - The real estate market in China is witnessing a significant shift from "incremental gains" to "stock competition," with a notable increase in demand for larger homes driven by families seeking improved living conditions [4][11]. - The average living space per person in China has reached 40 square meters, but there is a significant imbalance in living quality across regions, leading to a primary motivation for homebuyers to seek larger spaces [4][11]. - The "house exchange" trend is becoming dominant in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, where older, smaller homes are being traded for larger units, indicating a long-suppressed demand for improved living conditions [4][11]. Group 2: Luxury Market Dynamics - In 2025, luxury homes in Shanghai are projected to see a surge in transactions, with total sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, capturing nearly 60% of the market share among major cities [16][17]. - The average price of luxury homes has risen to 53.3 million yuan, with a significant increase in transaction volume for properties priced over 50 million yuan, reflecting strong demand for high-end real estate [17][21]. - The luxury market is characterized by a stark divide, with high-end properties showing resilience against market downturns, while the overall real estate sector faces challenges [21][22]. Group 3: Policy Changes and Market Adaptation - Recent policy adjustments in major cities, such as the relaxation of the "7090 policy," aim to encourage the development of larger, high-quality homes to meet the evolving market demand [10][28]. - The government has recognized the importance of "good housing" in its work reports, emphasizing safety, comfort, and sustainability as key attributes for future housing projects [27][31]. - The cancellation of purchase restrictions in cities like Guangzhou marks a significant shift in policy, aimed at stimulating the housing market and addressing the pent-up demand for larger homes [29][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The real estate market is transitioning into a "big house era," driven by demographic changes such as the two-child and three-child policies, which are reshaping family housing needs [33][34]. - The market is expected to experience further fragmentation, with a clear distinction between luxury and standard housing, as well as a focus on quality over quantity in residential offerings [34][35].

Group 1 - Iwojia (000560) is a leading real estate agency in China, established in 2000, focusing on property leasing, second-hand housing transactions, new house agency, and home services, benefiting from the rental and sales rights policy [1][33] - The company has over 3,000 offline stores and has served more than 10 million families, with its "Xiangyu" brand managing over 400,000 rental units [1][33] - Future prospects include market share expansion due to the deepening of rental and sales rights policies and enhanced service experience through digital tools [1][33] Group 2 - Huafa Group (600325) is a well-established real estate company under the Zhuhai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on real estate development and property services, primarily in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [2][34] - The company actively participates in the rental and sales rights sector with its "Huafa Youjia" rental brand and is involved in urban renewal and industrial support projects [2][34] - Future outlook includes value reassessment of land reserves and profit growth from the expansion of rental business [2][34] Group 3 - Caixin Development (000838) is a listed platform under Chongqing Caixin Group, focusing on real estate development and urban renewal, primarily in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [3][35] - The company integrates into the regional housing rental system through self-owned apartment projects and affordable housing cooperation [3][35] - Future prospects include long-term value release from land reserves and urban renewal projects, with rental business expansion opening new growth opportunities [3][35] Group 4 - China Merchants Shekou (001979) is a flagship real estate platform under China Merchants Group, focusing on real estate development and commercial operations, primarily in key urban clusters [4][36] - The company has over 20,000 rental units under its "Yijian" brand and is deeply involved in the construction of affordable rental housing [4][36] - Future outlook includes profit growth from the expansion of rental business and asset revitalization through REITs pilot projects [4][36] Group 5 - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649) is a city construction and operation platform under the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on real estate development and water operations [5][37] - The company actively responds to policy directions through affordable housing projects and long-term rental operations [5][37] - Future prospects include expansion of rental business scale and long-term value release from urban renewal projects [5][37] Group 6 - Binjiang Group (002244) is a leading real estate company in Hangzhou, focusing on high-quality residential development and commercial operations [6][39] - The company actively participates in the housing rental market through self-owned commercial properties and long-term rental projects [6][39] - Future outlook includes value reassessment of land reserves and profit growth from rental business expansion [6][39] Group 7 - Sealand (002285) is a leading comprehensive real estate service provider in China, focusing on property agency, rental services, and asset operation [7][40] - The company has served over one million families and manages over 100,000 rental units under its "Hongpu Apartment" brand [7][40] - Future prospects include market share expansion and service experience enhancement through digital tools [7][40] Group 8 - Poly Developments (600048) is a flagship real estate platform under Poly Group, focusing on real estate development and property services [8][41] - The company has over 50,000 rental units under its "Poly Apartment" brand and is involved in affordable rental housing construction [8][41] - Future outlook includes profit growth from rental business expansion and financing advantages under state-owned enterprise background [8][41] Group 9 - Huangting International (000056) is a commercial real estate operator based in Shenzhen, focusing on commercial property operations and financial services [9][42] - The company actively participates in the housing rental market through self-owned commercial property transformation and long-term rental operations [9][42] - Future prospects include further opening of rental space through commercial property transformation and value release from urban renewal projects [9][42] Group 10 - Jinhe Commercial Management (603682) is a leading cultural and creative park operator, focusing on urban renewal and cultural park operations [10][43] - The company integrates into the regional housing rental system through park-affiliated apartment operations and affordable housing cooperation [10][43] - Future outlook includes growth in park-affiliated rental business and consolidation of industry position through ongoing urban renewal projects [10][43] Group 11 - Vanke A (000002) is a leading real estate company in China, focusing on real estate development and rental operations [11][44] - The company has over 200,000 rental units under its "Boyu" brand, making it one of the largest long-term rental apartment operators in China [11][44] - Future prospects include profit growth from rental business expansion and asset revitalization through REITs pilot projects [11][44] Group 12 - Tianjian Group (000090) is a city construction and operation platform under the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on real estate development and urban construction [12][45] - The company actively responds to policy directions through affordable housing projects and long-term rental operations [12][45] - Future outlook includes expansion of rental business scale and long-term value release from urban renewal projects [12][45] Group 13 - ST Sunshine (000608) is an established glass manufacturing company transitioning into the new energy and real estate sectors [13][46] - The company attempts to enter the housing rental market through self-owned property transformation and affordable housing cooperation [13][46] - Future prospects include growth in rental business and recovery of overall performance through the expansion of photovoltaic glass business [13][46] Group 14 - 365 Network (300295) is a leading real estate internet service platform, focusing on property information and transaction services [14][47] - The company integrates rental housing information through its online platform, benefiting from the rental and sales rights policy [14][47] - Future outlook includes growth in online rental platform traffic and improved profitability through financial technology business expansion [14][47] Group 15 - Debi Group (300947) is a leading cultural and creative park operator, focusing on urban renewal and cultural park operations [15][48] - The company integrates into the regional housing rental system through park-affiliated apartment operations and affordable housing cooperation [15][48] - Future prospects include growth in park-affiliated rental business and consolidation of industry position through ongoing urban renewal projects [15][48] Group 16 - Changjiang Investment (600119) is a logistics and real estate platform under the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on logistics operations and real estate development [16][49] - The company attempts to enter the housing rental market through self-owned property transformation and affordable housing cooperation [16][49] - Future outlook includes growth in rental business and performance improvement through logistics real estate appreciation [16][49] Group 17 - New Huangpu (600638) is a real estate platform under the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, focusing on real estate development and financial services [17][50] - The company actively participates in the housing rental market through affordable housing projects and long-term rental operations [17][50] - Future prospects include expansion of rental business scale and long-term value release from urban renewal projects [17][50] Group 18 - Yueshin Health (002162) is a health real estate and elderly care service provider, focusing on health real estate development and elderly care services [18][51] - The company integrates into the regional housing rental system through health community-affiliated apartment operations and affordable housing cooperation [18][51] - Future outlook includes growth in health rental business and improved profitability through the expansion of elderly care services [18][51]

2月4日，三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，上证指数涨0.85%，深证成指涨0.21%，创业板指跌0.4%，科创50跌1.2%。两市超过3100只股票飘红，两市成交额 约2.48万亿元。 消息面上，上海市启动首批收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房项目试点，聚焦浦东新区、静安区、徐汇区的小户型二手房源。机构认为，上海二手房收储试 点是积极举措，有助于缓解供给压力。此外，二手房市场率先回暖显示"小阳春"行情提前显现，核心城市韧性凸显，可能推动房企去库存和业绩改善。 机场航运概念走强，中国东航（600115.SH）、华夏航空（002928.SZ）涨停10%，南方航空（600029.SH）、中国国航（601111.SH）涨幅居前。 消息面上，近日全国春运电视电话会议预计，2026年春运跨区域人员流动量将达95亿人次，同比增长约5.3%，或将再创历史新高。 跌幅榜上，黄金、商业航天等概念走弱，臻镭科技（688270.SH）跌9.79%，四川黄金（001337.SZ）跌近9%，航天动力（600343.SH）跌4.81%。 AI应用、AI算力等人气板块亦走弱，壹网壹创（300792.SZ）跌8.57%，新易盛（300502.SZ）跌 ...