证券研究报告 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2026年2月1日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 板块最新观点 整车主线周报： 本周商用载货车表现较好，长城发布业绩预告 2 （ ◼ 乘用车观点更新：短期来看，行业补贴政策已落地，看好观望需求转化下26Q1乘用车景气度复苏，坚定看好乘 用车板块。全年维度来看：国内选抗波动+出口选确定性。国内关注高端电动化赛道中对政策扰动不敏感的个股 江淮汽车，以及高端化有望放量的吉利汽车/长城汽车/北汽蓝谷/赛力斯/理想等；出口主线优先配置海外体系 成熟、执行能力已验证的头部车企，优选比亚迪/长城汽车/奇瑞汽车，以及零跑/小鹏/上汽集团/长安汽车等。 ◼ 重卡观点更新：回顾2025：2025年，25年全年批发114.4万，同比+26.8%，内销79.9万，同比+32.8%，出 口34.1万，同比+17.2%，全年内销及出口超市场年初预期。25年初国四及以下营运重卡保有量69万辆，估算 25年底淘汰至45-50万辆，25年全年淘汰21万辆，25年全年内销政策拉动+自然需求回升共振。展望2026： ...

车企1月竞争格局生变：小米成"新王"，比亚迪国内磨底 2月1日晚间，比亚迪发布产销快报称，1月销量达21.01万辆，同比下降30.11%，环比下降50.04%。 此前为了促进新能源汽车发展，国内新能源汽车购置税采取全额免征的政策，助力比亚迪等多家新能源车企快速发展。 对比来看，1月仍有多家新能源车企报喜。比如，小米汽车1月的交付量超3.9万辆，超越零跑汽车首次成为造车新势力月度销冠。 同时，赛力斯、蔚来公司、岚图汽车等主打中高端新能源汽车市场的车企，1月交付量（销量）同比分别增长104.85%、96.08%、31.29%。 多家车企掌门人此前预判，一旦走到这个时刻，燃油车和新能源汽车在某种程度上会迎来终极对决，并且会筛选出哪些新能源车企能够正向发展。 | 车企 | 2026年1月销量或交付量(辆) | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | | 比亚迪 | 210051 | -30. 11% | | 吉利新能源 | 124252 | 2.63% | | 鸿蒙智行 | 57915 | 65. 53% | | 奇瑞新能源 | 52131 | -0. 08% | | 赛力斯新能源 | 43034 | 14 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" in 2026, driven by electrification and intelligent transformation [1] - The market competition is shifting from price wars to a "value war" focused on technological innovation, product iteration, quality enhancement, and experience optimization [1] Market Overview - In 2026, the total vehicle sales in China are projected to reach 34.75 million, a slight increase of 1%, while another estimate suggests around 28 million units, growing by 2% [2] - The industry is entering a phase characterized by high sales volume but low growth, with competition focusing on quality and efficiency rather than scale [2] - The central economic work conference emphasizes a policy direction of "stability while seeking progress" and "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement" for the automotive sector [2] New Energy Vehicles (NEVs) - NEVs are expected to achieve significant growth, with sales projected to exceed 20 million units in 2026, solidifying their market dominance [3] - Domestic automakers are leveraging technological innovation and supply chain advantages to produce competitively priced NEVs, shifting from policy-driven sales to market-driven sales as penetration rates exceed 50% [3] Competitive Landscape - Leading domestic automakers like Geely, BYD, and Chery are expected to benefit from product structure upgrades and global expansion, with Geely targeting over 4.5 million units in sales for 2026 [3] - New entrants in the automotive market are experiencing accelerated differentiation, with companies like Leap Motor and Xpeng doubling their sales, while others like NIO are focusing on operational efficiency [4] Internationalization and Global Expansion - The Chinese automotive industry is increasingly focusing on international markets, with exports projected to exceed 8 million units in 2026, primarily driven by NEVs [12] - Major automakers are establishing overseas production facilities to mitigate tariffs and trade barriers, enhancing local integration and responsiveness [13] Technological Innovation - Key areas of technological advancement include power batteries, chips, and software, with significant breakthroughs expected in 2026 [6] - The development of next-generation battery technologies, such as solid-state batteries, is progressing, with initial production expected to begin in 2026-2027 [6] - Intelligent driving technologies are advancing, with L2-level driving assistance features expected to penetrate over 70% of new passenger vehicles by 2026 [7] Emerging Trends - The automotive industry is evolving into a "super platform," integrating various technologies and services beyond traditional transportation [11] - Companies are exploring new growth avenues, including humanoid robots and low-altitude economy sectors, with significant developments anticipated in 2026 [9][10]

Company News - Geely Automobile reported total sales of 270,167 vehicles in January, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 1% [3] - BYD's sales of new energy vehicles reached 210,051 units in January, with passenger car sales at 205,518 units [4] - Xpeng Motors delivered 20,011 new vehicles in January [5] - GAC Group produced 110,795 vehicles in January, a year-on-year decrease of 4.77%, while sales increased by 18.47% to 116,622 vehicles [6] - Seres achieved sales of 45,900 vehicles in January, marking a year-on-year increase of 104.85%, with new energy vehicle sales up 140.33% to 43,000 units [7] - NIO delivered 27,182 new vehicles in January, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 96.1% [8] - AITO delivered 40,016 new vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of 83% [9] - Lantu delivered 10,515 vehicles in January, up 31% year-on-year [10] - Li Auto delivered 27,668 new vehicles in January [11] - Leap Motor delivered 32,059 vehicles in January, representing a year-on-year growth of 27% [12] - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered a total of 57,915 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of 65.6% [13] - Xiaomi Auto delivered over 39,000 vehicles in January [14] Stock and Financial Updates - Jiamei Packaging announced that its stock price increased by 408.11% from December 17, 2025, to January 23, 2026, which diverged from the company's fundamentals. The company expects a net profit of 85.44 million to 104.42 million yuan for 2025, a decline of 53.38% to 43.02% year-on-year. The stock will resume trading on February 2 [14] - Fenglong Co. completed its stock trading suspension review and will resume trading on February 2 [14] - Aoshikang plans to issue convertible bonds to raise up to 1 billion yuan for a high-end printed circuit board project, which aims to enhance product competitiveness and meet growing market demand [14] - China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom announced that the VAT rate for certain telecommunications services will increase from 6% to 9% starting January 1, 2026, which will impact their revenue and profits [15] - Jerry Holdings signed a gas turbine generator sales contract worth 182 million USD (approximately 1.26 billion yuan) with a U.S. client, marking the fourth such contract since November 2025 [15] - Yanzhou Coal Mining announced the public transfer of 100% equity in Inner Mongolia Xintai Coal Co., with a starting price of 670 million yuan, which may significantly impact the company's net profit for 2026 [15]

Core Insights - The automotive industry is reflecting on past strategies and decisions as leaders express both criticism and optimism for the future [4][9][12]. Group 1: Leadership Reflections - Li Shufu, chairman of Geely, emphasizes the importance of perseverance and learning from past mistakes in the automotive sector [8]. - Oliver Blume, former CEO of Porsche, admits to strategic errors regarding the Macan model, which led to a significant gap in product offerings and shareholder losses [9][10][14]. - Blume acknowledges that the decision to fully electrify the Macan was overly optimistic and resulted in a two-year gap before new fuel models could be introduced [10][15]. Group 2: Company Strategies and Market Position - Lei Jun, founder of Xiaomi, addresses marketing controversies and emphasizes the need for transparency in communication with consumers [17][18]. - Li Bin, founder of NIO, celebrates the production of the one-millionth electric vehicle and outlines ambitious plans for expanding battery swap stations, aiming for profitability while focusing on growth quality [21][22][25]. - Elon Musk highlights China's rapid advancements in AI and energy infrastructure, predicting that China will surpass the U.S. in power generation by 2026 [28][30]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - François Provost, CEO of Renault, suggests that Chinese automakers should shift from a volume-driven strategy to a value-driven approach to avoid detrimental price wars [43]. - Li Xiang, CEO of Li Auto, announces a strategic pivot towards humanoid robotics and AI, indicating a significant transformation in the company's research and development focus [46][48]. - The automotive industry is witnessing a shift towards integrating AI and robotics, with companies like Li Auto aiming to enhance user experiences through innovative technologies [46][48].

"中国速度"已成为大众汽车的驱动力，欧洲版的一些车型仅用36个月便完成开发。虽然比不上中国车企 的速度，但相较大众传统开发周期，已是很大进步。"中国速度"理念如今已不仅限于整车企业。意日合 资汽车零部件供应商马瑞利表示，计划以"中国速度"将新产品上市周期从3年缩短至1年。（作者伊恩· 亨利，乔恒译） 英国《汽车制造解决方案》杂志网站1月30日文章，原题："中国速度"重塑全球汽车制造业 副题：中国 电动汽车新势力和传统车企正通过一体化压铸、垂直整合及加速产品迭代重塑汽车制造模式，让全球竞 争对手调整并适应 大多数传统车企已通过合资形式在中国布局。如今，这些业务正面临本土制造商的 激烈竞争。如今的中国市场已成为新技术最可能率先且快速落地应用的最大市场，而主导这一趋势的更 多是本土企业而非跨国公司。这一趋势在电动汽车领域尤为显著，在新的增程式电动汽车等技术领域同 样如此，欧洲正试图追赶中国在这些技术上的领先优势。 来源：环球时报 "中国速度"理念同样体现在中国汽车"欧洲化"的过程中。例如，奇瑞的Omoda 5最初被当地经销商认为 不适合欧洲市场，于是这家中国企业迅速推出改进版，调整转向系统、悬挂、制动和牵引力控制系 ...

跃马新程，扬鞭奋蹄。2026年是我国汽车产业从"规模扩张"驶向"提质增效"的关键之年。 面对电动化和智能化变革浪潮，我国汽车产业将在总量高位运行与结构深度调整中，奋力迈向高质量发 展。在国家政策引导和企业集体反思下，单纯以降价为核心的"内卷"有望缓解，而以技术创新、产品迭 代、品质提升、体验优化为核心的"价值战"将全面升级。 激烈的市场竞争，既是企业创新活力的生动体现，也是淘汰赛加速的直观映射。科技创新、供应链重 构、跨界融合、生态出海、政策调整、贸易保护等多种变量相互交织，不仅深刻重塑国内汽车市场竞争 格局，也将影响全球汽车市场走势。 竞争格局加速重构 经历了2025年超预期增长，2026年国内汽车市场正式迈入"高销量、低增长"新阶段。中汽协预计，2026 年汽车总销量达3475万辆，微增1%；车百会预计，2026年国内汽车销量约为2800万辆，增长2%。这个 阶段的核心特征，是销量基数大、增长幅度稳，行业竞争从规模比拼转向质量与效率竞争。 从产品结构来看，在整体市场平稳增长下，新能源汽车将实现量质齐升。新能源汽车仍是产业增长核心 动力，2026年销售量有望突破2000万辆（包括出口），市场主导地位进一步巩 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the impact of policy adjustments and changes in consumer behavior on the Chinese new energy vehicle (NEV) market in January 2026, indicating a cautious outlook for February due to these factors [1]. Market Overview - The NEV market in January faced dual short-term pressures: adjustments in the purchase tax policy and promotional activities by car manufacturers to meet annual targets, which led to a preemptive consumption demand [1]. - The New Year holiday compressed the sales window, placing the market in a demand recovery phase [1]. - Key variables influencing the market include policy alignment and consumer expectations, with some local subsidy application details yet to be finalized, leading to a wait-and-see attitude among consumers [1]. Company Performance - **BYD**: Achieved a passenger car sales volume of 205,518 units in January, maintaining a significant lead in the NEV sector [2][5]. - **Geely**: Reported total sales of 270,167 units, with 124,252 units being NEVs, showing a strong performance across its brands [6][9]. - **Harmonious Intelligence**: Delivered 57,915 units, driven by strong demand for its models and successful technology integration [3][11]. - **Chery**: Sold 52,131 NEVs out of a total of 200,269 units, with a notable year-on-year growth exceeding 50% in the NEV segment [12][15]. - **Xiaomi**: Recorded over 39,000 units delivered, with upcoming models expected to boost sales further [16][18]. - **Leap Motor**: Achieved 32,059 units in deliveries, marking a 27% year-on-year growth despite the seasonal slowdown [6][20]. - **NIO**: Delivered 27,182 units, with the ES8 model showing significant sales momentum [7][23]. - **Li Auto**: Reported 27,668 units delivered, maintaining a positive outlook despite competitive pressures [8][25]. - **GAC Aion**: Sold 21,635 units, benefiting from brand integration and new model launches [9][27]. - **XPeng**: Delivered 20,011 units, with plans for new model releases enhancing its market presence [10][31]. - **Great Wall Motors**: Recorded 18,029 NEV sales, with a focus on high-end markets and international sales [11][34]. - **Lantu**: Achieved 10,515 units delivered, with ongoing product development and partnerships [12][36]. - **BAIC New Energy**: Sold 11,169 units, with a focus on high-end models and technological advancements [13][38]. - **Zhi Mi**: Delivered 5,017 units, expanding its product line with new models [14][39]. - **Extreme Stone**: Achieved 1,028 units delivered, with plans for global market expansion [15][42].

【DT新材料】 获 悉 ， 2月1日， 比亚迪 以及造车新势力零跑、理想、蔚来和小鹏先后发布1月交付量。主要的原因可能是年初是传统的市场淡季， 再叠加去年底免征车辆购置税政策的截止，提前透支了一部分需求，导致今年市场大盘下滑幅度整体比较大。当然也有逆势上涨的企业。 比亚迪 ，1月份新能源汽车销量210051辆，乘用车销量205518辆，1月出口新能源汽车合计100482辆。 | | | | 产量 | | | | | 销量 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 本月 | 去年同期 | 本年累计 | 去年累计 | 累计同比 | 本月 | 去年同期 | 本年累计 | 去年累计 | 累计同比 | | 新能源汽车 | 232, 358 | 327,864 | 232, 358 | 327.864 | -29. 13% | 210, 051 | 300, 538 | 210, 051 | 300, 538 | -30. 11% | | -乘用车 | 227.835 | 323,811 | 227 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that Geely's overall sales performance in January showed mixed results, with some brands experiencing declines while others saw significant growth [1][2] Group 2 - In January, Geely brand sales totaled 217,438 units, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 3% [1] - The Galaxy series sold 82,990 units, down 11% year-on-year, while Lynk & Co. sales were 28,877 units, down 4% [1] - Zeekr brand performed exceptionally well with sales of 23,852 units in January, achieving a 100% year-on-year increase [1] - In terms of power types, sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) were 68,012 units, down 15% year-on-year, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) saw a significant increase of 37%, totaling 56,240 units [1] - Geely's total export sales in January reached 60,506 units, marking a 121% year-on-year increase [1] - Proton brand achieved sales of 16,106 units in January 2026, a growth of approximately 36% compared to the previous year [1] - On February 1, Geely announced that total sales for January 2026 reached 270,167 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 1% [2]